Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project

Research Policy

Volumn 40, Issue 10, 2011, Pages 1412-1425

  Gisler, Monika ^a   Sornette, Didier ^a,b   Woodard, Ryan ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Financial bubbles; Human Genome Project; Innovation; Positive feedbacks; Social bubbles

Indexed keywords

BIOTECH SECTOR; EXPECTED TIME; FINANCIAL BUBBLE; GOVERNMENT AGENCIES; HUMAN GENOME PROJECT; PRIVATE PROJECTS; PRIVATE SECTORS; PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR; PUBLIC PROJECT; SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY; SOCIAL BUBBLES; SOCIAL INTERACTIONS; STOCK MARKET; TANGIBLE OUTCOMES;

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; FEEDBACK; STANDARDIZATION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

GENES;

EID: 80255132734     PISSN: 00487333     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2011.05.019     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. M.D. Adams, J.M. Kelley, J.D. Gocayne, M. Dubnick, M.H. Polymeropoulos, H. Xiao, C.R. Merril, A. Wu, B. Olde, R.F. Moreno, A.R. Kerlavage, W.R. McCombie, and J.C. Venter Complementary DNA sequencing: expressed sequence tags and Human Genome Project Science 252 1991 June 1651 1656 (Pubitemid 21917081)
2. C. Anderson Genome project goes commercial Science 259 1993 January 300 302 (Pubitemid 23055668)
3. B. Balmer Managing mapping in the human genome project Social Studies of Science 26 1996 531 573 (Pubitemid 126413833)
4. D. Barben Politische Ökonomie der Biotechnologie. Innovation und gesellschaftlicher 2007 Wandel im internationalen Vergleich. Campus Frankfurt/New York 331 pp.
5. B.J. Barnhart DOE Human Genome Program Human Genome Quarterly 1 1989 1
6. D.A. Benson, I. Karsch-Mizrachi, D.J. Lipman, J. Ostell, and D.L. Wheeler GenBank Nucleic Acids Research 35 2007 10.1093/nar/gkl986 (Pubitemid 46056163)
7. A. Bostanci Sequencing human genomes J.-P. Gaudillire, H.-J. Rheinberger, Mapping the Human Genome at Généthon Laboratory: The French Muscular Dystrophy Association and the Politics of the Gene 2004 Routledge London/New York 158 179
8. D. Butler Human genome at ten: science after the sequence Nature 465 2010 1000 1001
9. D. Butler Venter's Drosophila 'success' set to boost human genome efforts Nature 401 1999 October 729 730 (Pubitemid 29512468)
10. C.R. Cantor Orchestrating the Human Genome Project Science 248 1990 April 49 51
11. S. Chandrasekharan, N.C. Perin, I.R. Wiechers, and R. Cook-Deegan Public-private interactions in genomic medicine: research and development H.F. Willard, G.S. Ginsburg, Genomic and Personalized Medicine, 2 vols. 2009 Elsevier Inc. Academic Press San Diego 434 444
12. F. Collins Has the revolution arrived? Nature 464 2010 April 674 675 10.1038/464674a
13. F.S. Collins Medical and societal consequences of the Human Genome Project (Shattuck Lecture) The New England Journal of Medicine 1 1999 July 28 37 (Pubitemid 29293718)
14. F.S. Collins, A. Patrinos, E. Jordan, A. Chakravarti, R. Gesteland, L.R. Walters and the members of the DOE and NIH planning groups New goals for the U.S. Human Genome Project: 1998-2003 Science 282 1998 October 682 689 10.1126/science.282.5389.682 (Pubitemid 28489375)
15. R. Cook-Deegan The Gene Wars. Science, Politics and the Human Genome 1994 W. W. Norton & Company New York/London 416 pp.
16. R. Cook-Deegan The Alta Summit, December 1984 Genomics 5 1989 661 663
17. R. Cook-Deegan The Human Genome Project: the formation of federal policies in the United States 1986-1990 K.E. Hanna, Biomedical Politics 1991 National Academy Press Washington 99 168
18. R. Cook-Deegan, C. Chan, and A. Johnson World Survey of Funding for Genomics Research-Final Report to the Global Forum for Health Research and the World Health Organization 2000 Washington
19. C. DeLisi The Human Genome Project American Scientist 76 1988 488 493
20. C. DeLisi Meetings that changed the world: Santa Fe 1986: human genome baby-steps Nature 455 2008 October 876 877
21. R. Dulbecco A turning point in cancer research: sequencing the human genome Science 231 1986 March 1055 1056
22. R.F. Engle, and C.W.J. Granger Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing Econometrica 55 2 1987 251 276
23. J.K. Galbraith The Great Crash 1929 1997 Houghton Mifflin Boston 206 pp.
24. W. Gilbert A vision of the grail D.J. Kevles, L. Hood, The Code of Codes: Scientific and Social Issues in the Human Genome Project 1992 Harvard University Press Cambridge, MA 83 97
25. M. Gisler, and D. Sornette Exuberant innovations: the Apollo program Society 46 2009 55 68
26. M. Gisler, and D. Sornette Bubbles everywhere in human affairs L. Kajfež-Bogataj, K.H. Müller, I. Svetlik, N. Tos, Modern RISC-Societies. Towards a New Paradigm for Societal Evolution 2010 Edition Echoraum Wien 117 134
27. S.S. Hall Revolution Postponed. The Human Genome Project has failed so far to produce the medical miracles that scientist promised. Biologists are now divided over what, if anything, went wrong- and what needs to happen next Scientific American 2010 October 42 49
28. A.M. Hedgecoe, and P.A. Martin Genomics, STS and the making of sociotechnical futures E. Hackett, O. Amsterdamksa, M. Lynch, J. Wajcman, The Handbook of Science and Technology Studies third edition 2008 The MIT Press Cambridge, MA/London 817 839
29. S. Hilgartner The Human Genome Project S. Jasanoff, G. Markle, J. Petersen, T. Pinch, Handbook of Science and Technology Studies 1994 SAGE Thousand Oaks/London/New Delhi 302 315
30. S. Hilgartner Access to data and intellectual property: scientific exchange in genome research. Intellectual property rights and research tools in molecular biology Summary of a Workshop Held at the National Academy of Sciences February 15-16 1996, Washington 1997
31. S. Hilgartner Data access policy in genome research A. Thackray, Private Science. Biotechnology and the Rise of the Molecular Sciences 1998 University of Pennsylvania Press Philadelphia 202 218
32. S. Hilgartner Making maps and making social order: governing American genome centers 1988-1993 J.-P. Gaudillire, H.-J. Rheinberger, From Molecular Genetics to Genomics. The Mapping Cultures of Twentieth-century Genetics 2004 Routledge London/New York 113 128
33. Human Genome News, div. vols (ed. U.S. Department of Energy Genome Programs; http://genomics.energy.gov).
34. Z.-Q. Jiang, W.-X. Zhou, D. Sornette, R. Woodard, K. Bastiaensen, and P. Cauwels Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 74 2010 149 162
35. A. Johansen, and D. Sornette The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash European Physical Journal B 17 2000 319 328
36. A. Johansen, and D. Sornette Shocks, crashes and bubbles in financial markets Brussels Economic Review 53 2 2010 201 253 (preprint at papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract-id=344980)
37. A. Johansen, D. Sornette, and O. Ledoit Predicting financial crashes using discrete scale invariance Journal of Risk 1 4 1999 5 32
38. K. Jordan, and M. Lynch The dissemination, standardization and routinization of a molecular biological technique. Social studies of science Special Issue on Contested Identities: Science, Law and Forensic Practice 28 5/6 1998 773 800
39. A. Kaufmann Mapping the human genome at Généthon laboratory: the French Muscular Dystrophy Association and the politics of the gene J.-P. Gaudillire, H.-J. Rheinberger, From Molecular Genetics to Genomics. The Mapping Cultures of Twentieth-century Genetics 2004 Routledge London/New York 129 157
40. F.S. Kieff Perspectives on Properties of the Human Genome Project 2003 Elsevier Amsterdam 538 pp. (Advances in Genetics)
41. C.P. Kindleberger Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises 2005 John Wiley & Sons New York 355 pp.
42. S.E. Koonin An independent perspective on the human genome project Science 279 1998 January 36
43. N.R. Lamoreaux, and K.L. Sokoloff Introduction: the organization and finance of innovation in American history N.R. Lamoreaux, K.L. Sokoloff, Financing Innovation in the United States, 1870 to the Present 2007 The MIT Press Cambridge, MA/London 1 37
44. R. Lewin DNA sequencing goes automatic Science 233 1986 July 24
45. R. Lewin Molecular biology of Homo sapiens Science 233 1986 July 157 158 (Pubitemid 16008110)
46. R. Lewin Proposal to sequence the human genome stirs debate Science 233 1986 June 1598 1600
47. R. Lewin Shifting sentiments over sequencing the human genome Science 233 1986 August 620 621
48. R. Li The sequence and de novo assembly of the giant panda genome Nature 463 2010 January 311 317
49. E. Marshall NIH to produce a 'working draft' of the genome by 2001 Science 281 1998 September 1774 1775 (Pubitemid 28450452)
50. E. Marshall, and E. Pennisi Hubris and the human genome Science 280 1998 May 994 995 (Pubitemid 28234918)
51. V.K. McElheny Drawing the Map of Life. Inside the Human Genome Project 2010 Basic Books New York 361 pp.
52. H. Moses, E.R. Dorsey, D.H.M. Matheson, and S.O. Thier Financial anatomy of biomedical research JAMA 294 11 2005 1333 1342 (Pubitemid 41345812)
53. National Research Council Mapping and Sequencing the Human Genome 1988 National Academy Press Washington 128 pp.
54. M. Olson, L. Hood, C.R. Cantor, and D. Botstein A common language for physical mapping of the human genome Science 245 1989 September 1434 1435
55. J. Palca Human genome sequencing plan wins unanimous approval in US Nature 326 1987 April 429
56. S. Parthasarathy Building Genetic Medicine. Breast Cancer, Technology and the Comparative Politics of Health Care 2007 The MIT Press Cambridge, MA/London, England 271 pp.
57. H. Pearson One gene twenty years Nature 460 2009 July 164 169
58. E. Pennisi Fruit fly genome yields data and a validation Science 287 2000 February 1374 (Pubitemid 30127099)
59. C. Perez Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages 2002 Edward Elgar Cheltenham/Northampton 198 pp.
60. C. Perez The double bubble at the turn of the century: technological roots and structural implications Cambridge Journal of Economics 33 2009 779 805 10.1093/cje/bep028
61. H.-J. Rheinberger What happened to molecular biology? BioSocieties 3 2008 303 310
62. L. Roberts Agencies vie over human genome project Science 237 1987 July 486 488
63. L. Roberts Human genome: questions of cost Science 237 1987 September 1411 1412
64. L. Roberts Who owns the human genome Science 237 1987 July 358 361
65. L. Roberts Academy backs genome project Science 239 1988 February 725 726
66. L. Roberts Watson will head NIH Genome Office Science 241 1988 September 1752
67. L. Roberts Genome project under way, at last Science 243 1989 January 167 168
68. L. Roberts New game plan for genome mapping Science 245 1989 September 1438 1440
69. L. Roberts Tough times ahead for the genome project Science 248 1990 June 1600 1601 (Pubitemid 20220127)
70. L. Roberts Gambling on a shortcut to genome sequencing Science 252 1991 June 1618 1619
71. L. Roberts Why Watson quit as project head Science 256 1992 April 301 302
72. L. Roberts Taking stock of the genome project Science 262 1993 October 20 22 (Pubitemid 23338869)
73. L. Roberts Science interview: in the crossfire: Collins on genomes, patents, and 'rivalry' Science 287 2000 March 2396 2398
74. L. Roberts Controversial from the start Science 291 2001 February 1182 1188
75. L. Roberts A history of the human genome project Science 291 2001 February 1195 1200
76. Science, div. vols.
77. R.J. Shiller Irrational Exuberance 2000 Princeton University Press Princeton, NJ, USA
78. J. Shreeve The Genome War. How Craig Venter Tried to Capture the Code of Life and Save the World 2004 Alfred Knopf New York 403 pp.
79. R.L. Sinsheimer The Santa Cruz workshop May 1985 Genomics 5 1989 954 965
80. S. Smith Hughes Making dollars out of DNS. The first major patent in biotechnology and the commercialization of molecular biology, 1974-1980 Isis 92 2001 541 575
81. D. Sornette Why Stock Markets Crash. Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems 2003 Princeton University Press New Jersey (USA) 421 pp.
82. D. Sornette Nurturing breakthroughs: lessons from complexity theory Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 3 2008 165 181
83. D. Sornette, and A. Johansen Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes Quantitative Finance 1 4 2001 452 471
84. D. Sornette, R. Woodard, M. Fedorovsky, S. Riemann, H. Woodard, W.-X. Zhou (The Financial Crisis Observatory) The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations 2009 http://arxiv.org/abs/0911.0454
85. D. Sornette, and W.-X. Zhou Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices International Journal of Forecasting 22 2006 153 168 (Pubitemid 43174796)
86. Subcommittee on Human Genome of the Health and Environmental Research Advisory Committee for the U.S, and Department of Energy Office of Energy Research Office of Health and Environmental Research Report on the Human Genome Initiative for the Office of Health and Environmental Research 1987 Washington
87. J. Sulston, and G. Ferry The Common Thread. A Story of Science, Politics Ethics and the Human Genome 2002 Bantam Press London 310 pp.
88. U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment Mapping Our Genes - The Genome Project. How Big, How Fast? OTA-BA-373 1988 U.S. Government Printing Office Washington
89. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Department of Energy Understanding our Genetic Inheritance. The U.S. Human Genome Project. The first Five Years: Fiscal Years 1991-1995 (DOE/ER-0452P/NIH Publication No. 90-1590) 1990 20 pp.
90. J.C. Venter Multiple persona genomes await Nature 464 2010 April 676 677 10.1038/464676a
91. N. Wade Bacterium's Full Gene Makeup Is Decoded 1995 May 26 The New York Times
92. N. Wade First Sequencing of Cell's DNA Defines Basis of Life 1995 August 1 The New York Times
93. N. Wade International Gene Project Gets Lift 1998 May 17 The New York Times
94. N. Wade One of 2 Teams in Genome-Map Race Sets an Earlier Deadline 1999 March 16 The New York Times
95. N. Wade A decade later Genetic Map Yields Few New Cures 2010 June 12 The New York Times
96. J. Watson, and R. Cook-Deegan Origins of the human genome project The FASEB Journal 1991 8 11 (Pubitemid 21892828)
97. J.D. Watson The human genome project: past, present, and future Science 248 1990 April 44 49
98. W.-X. Zhou, and D. Sornette Testing the stability of the 2000-2003 US Stock Market "Antibubble" Physica A 348 2005 428 452 (Pubitemid 40079613)