메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 139, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 3016-3035

Ensemble-based analysis of factors leading to the development of a multiday warm-season heavy rain event

Author keywords

Ensembles; Extreme events; Mesoscale systems; Rainfall; Summer warm season; Tropical cyclones; Vortices

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLES; EXTREME EVENTS; MESO-SCALE SYSTEMS; SUMMER/WARM SEASON; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

EID: 80053202198     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05022.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (30)

References (36)
  • 1
    • 0019707055 scopus 로고
    • The Johnstown flood of July 1977: A long-lived convective system
    • Bosart, L. F., and F. Sanders, 1981: The Johnstown flood of July 1977: A long-lived convective system. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1616-1642.
    • (1981) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.38 , pp. 1616-1642
    • Bosart, L.F.1    Sanders, F.2
  • 2
    • 77955580034 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The THORPEX Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble
    • Bougeault, P., and Coauthors, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble. Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1059-1072.
    • (2010) Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 1059-1072
    • Bougeault, P.1
  • 3
    • 0034029925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of synoptic-scale flow during tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean
    • Bracken, W. E., and L. F. Bosart, 2000: The role of synoptic-scale flow during tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 353-376.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 353-376
    • Bracken, W.E.1    Bosart, L.F.2
  • 5
    • 42549125053 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation
    • doi:10.1029/2007JD009132
    • Chen, M., W. Shi, P. Xie, V. B. S. Silva, V. E. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, and J. E. Janowiak, 2008: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04110, doi:10.1029/2007JD009132.
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.113
    • Chen, M.1    Shi, W.2    Xie, P.3    Silva, V.B.S.4    Kousky, V.E.5    Higgins, R.W.6    Janowiak, J.E.7
  • 6
    • 10944255923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The TT problem: Forecasting the tropical transition of cyclones
    • Davis, C. A., and L. F. Bosart, 2004: The TT problem: Forecasting the tropical transition of cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1657-1662.
    • (2004) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.85 , pp. 1657-1662
    • Davis, C.A.1    Bosart, L.F.2
  • 7
    • 80053215409 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ECMWF cited, [Available online at]
    • ECMWF, cited 2010a: The creation of perturbed analyses. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_creation_of_perturbed_analyses.html.]
    • (2010) The creation of perturbed analyses
  • 8
    • 80053201120 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ECMWF cited, [Available online at]
    • ECMWF, cited 2010b: Total column water. [Available online at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/tigge/d/show_object/table5parameters/name5total_column_water/levtype5sfc/.]
    • (2010) Total column water
  • 9
    • 0001740432 scopus 로고
    • Warmcore vortex amplification over land
    • Fritsch, J. M., J. D. Murphy, and J. S. Kain, 1994: Warmcore vortex amplification over land. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1780-1807.
    • (1994) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.51 , pp. 1780-1807
    • Fritsch, J.M.1    Murphy, J.D.2    Kain, J.S.3
  • 11
    • 80053218045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of the summer 2007 excessive rain event in the southern plains
    • Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, P1.2. [Available online at]
    • Goebbert, K. H., A. D. Schenkman, C. M. Shafer, and N. A. Snook, 2008: An overview of the summer 2007 excessive rain event in the southern plains. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/135330.pdf.]
    • (2008) Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Goebbert, K.H.1    Schenkman, A.D.2    Shafer, C.M.3    Snook, N.A.4
  • 12
    • 0000980508 scopus 로고
    • Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms
    • Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
    • (1968) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.96 , pp. 669-700
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 14
    • 33750361341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?
    • Hamill, T. M., and J. Juras, 2006: Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2905-2923.
    • (2006) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.132 , pp. 2905-2923
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Juras, J.2
  • 15
    • 34248335054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of the mesoscale convective vortex of 10-13 June 2003
    • Hawblitzel, D. P., F. Zhang, Z. Meng, and C. A. Davis, 2007: Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of the mesoscale convective vortex of 10-13 June 2003. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1544-1563.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 1544-1563
    • Hawblitzel, D.P.1    Zhang, F.2    Meng, Z.3    Davis, C.A.4
  • 16
    • 0001592464 scopus 로고
    • On the evolution of vorticity and potential vorticity in the presence of diabatic heating and frictional or other forces
    • Haynes, P. H., and M. E. McIntyre, 1987: On the evolution of vorticity and potential vorticity in the presence of diabatic heating and frictional or other forces. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 828-841.
    • (1987) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.44 , pp. 828-841
    • Haynes, P.H.1    McIntyre, M.E.2
  • 17
    • 0346655448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic basin using large-scale data
    • Hennon, C. C., and J. S. Hobgood, 2003: Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic basin using large-scale data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2927-2940.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 2927-2940
    • Hennon, C.C.1    Hobgood, J.S.2
  • 18
    • 77953177639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Patterns of precipitation and mesolow evolution in midlatitude mesoscale convective vortices
    • James, E. P., and R. H. Johnson, 2010: Patterns of precipitation and mesolow evolution in midlatitude mesoscale convective vortices. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 909-931.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 909-931
    • James, E.P.1    Johnson, R.H.2
  • 19
    • 0029768948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
    • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
    • (1996) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.77 , pp. 437-471
    • Kalnay, E.1
  • 20
    • 70350348308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Four years of tropical ERA-40 vorticity maxima tracks. Part II: Differences between developing and nondeveloping disturbances
    • Kerns, B., and E. Zipser, 2009: Four years of tropical ERA-40 vorticity maxima tracks. Part II: Differences between developing and nondeveloping disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2576-2591.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 2576-2591
    • Kerns, B.1    Zipser, E.2
  • 21
    • 65549131820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the capability of a regional-scale weather model to simulate extreme precipitation patterns and flooding in central Texas
    • Knebl Lowrey, M. R., and Z.-L. Yang, 2008: Assessing the capability of a regional-scale weather model to simulate extreme precipitation patterns and flooding in central Texas. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 1102-1126.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 1102-1126
    • Knebl Lowrey, M.R.1    Yang, Z.-L.2
  • 22
    • 0020970640 scopus 로고
    • An interactive Barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data
    • Koch, S. E., M. desJardins, and P. J. Kocin, 1983: An interactive Barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data. J. Climate Appl.Meteor., 22, 1487-1503.
    • (1983) J. Climate Appl. Meteor. , vol.22 , pp. 1487-1503
    • Koch, S.E.1    desJardins, M.2    Kocin, P.J.3
  • 23
    • 0019727607 scopus 로고
    • Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: Comparison of nondeveloping versus developing systems
    • McBride, J. L., and R. Zehr, 1981: Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: Comparison of nondeveloping versus developing systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1132-1151.
    • (1981) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.38 , pp. 1132-1151
    • McBride, J.L.1    Zehr, R.2
  • 24
    • 33645538119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North American Regional Reanalysis
    • Mesinger, F., and Coauthors, 2006: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 343-360.
    • (2006) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.87 , pp. 343-360
    • Mesinger, F.1
  • 25
    • 33745713172 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extreme rainfall in Texas: Patterns and predictability
    • Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., F. Zhang, A. M. Odins, and B. Myoung, 2005: Extreme rainfall in Texas: Patterns and predictability. Phys. Geogr., 26, 340-364.
    • (2005) Phys. Geogr. , vol.26 , pp. 340-364
    • Nielsen-Gammon, J.W.1    Zhang, F.2    Odins, A.M.3    Myoung, B.4
  • 26
    • 70450176027 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NOAA
    • NOAA, 2007: Storm Data. Vol. 49, No. 8, 530 pp.
    • (2007) Storm Data , vol.49 , Issue.8 , pp. 530
  • 27
    • 58049196895 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles
    • Park, Y. Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2008: TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 2029-2050.
    • (2008) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 2029-2050
    • Park, Y.Y.1    Buizza, R.2    Leutbecher, M.3
  • 28
    • 57149130842 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale processes contributing to extreme rainfall in a midlatitude warm-season flash flood
    • Schumacher, R. S., and R. H. Johnson, 2008: Mesoscale processes contributing to extreme rainfall in a midlatitude warm-season flash flood. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3964-3986.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3964-3986
    • Schumacher, R.S.1    Johnson, R.H.2
  • 29
    • 77955567587 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble-based forecast uncertainty analysis of diverse heavy rainfall events
    • Schumacher, R. S., and C. A. Davis, 2010: Ensemble-based forecast uncertainty analysis of diverse heavy rainfall events. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1103-1122.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1103-1122
    • Schumacher, R.S.1    Davis, C.A.2
  • 30
    • 69949130219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Objective estimation of the 24-h probability of tropical cyclone formation
    • Schumacher, A. B., M. DeMaria, and J. A. Knaff, 2009: Objective estimation of the 24-h probability of tropical cyclone formation. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 456-471.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 456-471
    • Schumacher, A.B.1    DeMaria, M.2    Knaff, J.A.3
  • 31
    • 58049120795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probabilistic analysis of the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis
    • Sippel, J. A., and F. Zhang, 2008: A probabilistic analysis of the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3440-3459.
    • (2008) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.65 , pp. 3440-3459
    • Sippel, J.A.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 32
    • 77953338131 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007)
    • Sippel, J. A., and F. Zhang, 2010: Factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007). J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1759-1778.
    • (2010) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.67 , pp. 1759-1778
    • Sippel, J.A.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 33
    • 77953328308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diagnosis of the downstream ridging associated with extratropical transition using short-term ensemble forecasts
    • Torn, R. D., 2010: Diagnosis of the downstream ridging associated with extratropical transition using short-term ensemble forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 817-833.
    • (2010) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.67 , pp. 817-833
    • Torn, R.D.1
  • 34
    • 0033646299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-lived mesoconvective vortices and their environment. Part I:Observations from the central United States during the 1998 warm season
    • Trier, S. B., C. A. Davis, and J. D. Tuttle, 2000: Long-lived mesoconvective vortices and their environment. Part I:Observations from the central United States during the 1998 warm season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3376-3395.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 3376-3395
    • Trier, S.B.1    Davis, C.A.2    Tuttle, J.D.3
  • 35
    • 0038656650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of moist convection onmesoscale predictability
    • Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2003: Effects of moist convection onmesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1173-1185.
    • (2003) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.60 , pp. 1173-1185
    • Zhang, F.1    Snyder, C.2    Rotunno, R.3
  • 36
    • 33646430318 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season precipitation event
    • Zhang, F., A. M. Odins, and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2006: Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season precipitation event. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 149-166.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 149-166
    • Zhang, F.1    Odins, A.M.2    Nielsen-Gammon, J.W.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.