메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 24, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 456-471

Objective estimation of the 24-h probability of tropical cyclone formation

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

850-HPA; DATA POINTS; DATA SETS; EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC; EASTERN PACIFIC; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES; FORECAST PROBABILITIES; FORECASTING SYSTEM; INPUT PARAMETER; LINEAR DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONS; NEW PRODUCT; NORTH ATLANTIC; OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS; PREDICTION SCHEMES; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION; RELATIVE OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS; SKILL SCORE; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TWO-STEP ALGORITHMS; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC; WESTERN PACIFIC;

EID: 69949130219     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2008WAF2007109.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (39)

References (48)
  • 1
    • 0346016119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The boguscane - A serious problem with the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast model in the Tropics. Preprints
    • Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Beven, J. L., 1999: The boguscane - A serious problem with the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast model in the Tropics. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 845-848.
    • (1999) 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology , pp. 845-848
    • Beven, J.L.1
  • 2
    • 3042819335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study
    • Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1997: The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2662-2682.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 2662-2682
    • Bister, M.1    Emanuel, K.A.2
  • 3
    • 0034029925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of synoptic-scale flow during tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean
    • Bracken, W. E., and L. F. Bosart, 2000: The role of synoptic-scale flow during tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 353-376.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.128 , pp. 353-376
    • Bracken, W.E.1    Bosart, L.F.2
  • 4
    • 0001463968 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Large-scale forcing of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific
    • Briegel, L. M., and W. M. Frank, 1997: Large-scale forcing of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1397-1413.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 1397-1413
    • Briegel, L.M.1    Frank, W.M.2
  • 5
    • 52149084739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A vortex-based perspective of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone formation
    • Davis, C., C. Snyder, and A. C. Didlake Jr., 2008: A vortex-based perspective of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2461-2477.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.136 , pp. 2461-2477
    • Davis, C.1    Snyder, C.2    Didlake Jr., A.C.3
  • 6
    • 0035298064 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic
    • DeMaria, J., A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell, 2001: A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 219-233.
    • (2001) Wea. Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 219-233
    • DeMaria, J.1    Knaff, A.2    Connell, B.H.3
  • 7
    • 27544487168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Further improvements in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)
    • DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L. K. Shay, J. A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2005: Further improvements in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20, 531-543.
    • (2005) Wea. Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 531-543
    • DeMaria, M.1    Mainelli, M.2    Shay, L.K.3    Knaff, J.A.4    Kaplan, J.5
  • 9
    • 3042740008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints
    • Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Emanuel, K. A., and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 240-241.
    • (2004) 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology , pp. 240-241
    • Emanuel, K.A.1    Nolan, D.S.2
  • 10
    • 0019147401 scopus 로고
    • Atlantic tropical systems of 1979
    • Frank, N. L., and G. Clark, 1980: Atlantic tropical systems of 1979. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 966-972.
    • (1980) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.108 , pp. 966-972
    • Frank, N.L.1    Clark, G.2
  • 11
    • 33748999558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of tropical waves in tropical cyclogenesis
    • Frank, W. M., and P. E. Roundy, 2006: The role of tropical waves in tropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2397-2417.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.134 , pp. 2397-2417
    • Frank, W.M.1    Roundy, P.E.2
  • 12
    • 0014894756 scopus 로고
    • Aircraft, spacecraft, satellite and radar observations of Hurricane Gladys, 1968
    • Gentry, R. C., T. T. Fujita, and R. C. Sheets, 1970: Aircraft, spacecraft, satellite and radar observations of Hurricane Gladys, 1968. J. Appl. Meteor., 9, 837-850.
    • (1970) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.9 , pp. 837-850
    • Gentry, R.C.1    Fujita, T.T.2    Sheets, R.C.3
  • 13
    • 0000980508 scopus 로고
    • Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms
    • Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
    • (1968) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.96 , pp. 669-700
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 14
    • 69949143268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gray, W. M., 1975: Tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Tech. Paper 16-75, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, 66 pp. [Available from Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.]
    • Gray, W. M., 1975: Tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Tech. Paper 16-75, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, 66 pp. [Available from Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.]
  • 15
    • 0001233080 scopus 로고
    • Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation
    • D. B. Shaw, Ed, Royal Meteorological Society
    • Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 155-218.
    • (1979) Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans , pp. 155-218
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 16
    • 0021544433 scopus 로고
    • Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences
    • Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649-1668.
    • (1984) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.112 , pp. 1649-1668
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 17
    • 69949150797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Harr, P. A., cited 2007: Joint hurricane testbed: Final report - Objective and automated assessment of operational global forecast predictions of tropical cyclone formation and life cycle. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/final_rep/ ENharr_JHTfinalreport_03-05.pdf.]
    • Harr, P. A., cited 2007: Joint hurricane testbed: Final report - Objective and automated assessment of operational global forecast predictions of tropical cyclone formation and life cycle. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/final_rep/ ENharr_JHTfinalreport_03-05.pdf.]
  • 18
    • 33846264080 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid scan views of convectively generated mesovortices in sheared Tropical Cyclone Gustav (2002)
    • Hendricks, E. A., and M. T. Montgomery, 2006: Rapid scan views of convectively generated mesovortices in sheared Tropical Cyclone Gustav (2002). Wea. Forecasting, 21, 1041-1050.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 1041-1050
    • Hendricks, E.A.1    Montgomery, M.T.2
  • 19
    • 3042778358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of "vortical" hot towers in the formation of Tropical Cyclone Diana (1984)
    • Hendricks, E. A., M. T. Montgomery, and C. A. Davis, 2004: The role of "vortical" hot towers in the formation of Tropical Cyclone Diana (1984). J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1209-1232.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.61 , pp. 1209-1232
    • Hendricks, E.A.1    Montgomery, M.T.2    Davis, C.A.3
  • 20
    • 0346655448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic basin using large-scale data
    • Hennon, C. C., and J. S. Hobgood, 2003: Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic basin using large-scale data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2927-2940.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.131 , pp. 2927-2940
    • Hennon, C.C.1    Hobgood, J.S.2
  • 21
    • 0029768948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
    • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
    • (1996) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.77 , pp. 437-471
    • Kalnay, E.1
  • 23
    • 0001448796 scopus 로고
    • Observed ocean conditions and Hurricane Hilda, 1964
    • Leipper, D. F., 1967: Observed ocean conditions and Hurricane Hilda, 1964. J. Atmos. Sci., 24, 182-186.
    • (1967) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.24 , pp. 182-186
    • Leipper, D.F.1
  • 24
    • 0002810021 scopus 로고
    • Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean
    • 173 pp
    • Levitus, S., 1982: Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean. NOAA Prof. Paper 13, 173 pp.
    • (1982) NOAA Prof. Paper , vol.13
    • Levitus, S.1
  • 25
    • 0003047012 scopus 로고
    • On the dynamics and energy transformation in steady-state hurricanes
    • Malkus, J. S., and H. Riehl, 1960: On the dynamics and energy transformation in steady-state hurricanes. Tellus, 12, 1-20.
    • (1960) Tellus , vol.12 , pp. 1-20
    • Malkus, J.S.1    Riehl, H.2
  • 26
    • 0035441479 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Madden - Julian oscillation, barotropic dynamics, and North Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Part I: Observations
    • Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2001: The Madden - Julian oscillation, barotropic dynamics, and North Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Part I: Observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2545-2558.
    • (2001) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.58 , pp. 2545-2558
    • Maloney, E.D.1    Hartmann, D.L.2
  • 27
    • 0033208324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels
    • Mason, S. J., and N. E. Graham, 1999: Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 713-725.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 713-725
    • Mason, S.J.1    Graham, N.E.2
  • 28
    • 69949182611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • McBride, J. L., 1995: Tropical cyclone formation. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, R. L. Elsberry, Ed., WMO/TD 693, Rep. TCP-38, World Meteorological Organization, 63-105.
    • McBride, J. L., 1995: Tropical cyclone formation. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, R. L. Elsberry, Ed., WMO/TD 693, Rep. TCP-38, World Meteorological Organization, 63-105.
  • 29
    • 0019727607 scopus 로고
    • Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: Comparison of non-developing versus developing systems
    • McBride, J. L., and R. M. Zehr, 1981: Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: Comparison of non-developing versus developing systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1132-1151.
    • (1981) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.38 , pp. 1132-1151
    • McBride, J.L.1    Zehr, R.M.2
  • 30
    • 0033745340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Planetary- and synoptic-scale influences on eastern Pacific tropical cyclogenesis
    • Molinari, J., and D. Vollaro, 2000: Planetary- and synoptic-scale influences on eastern Pacific tropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3296-3307.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.128 , pp. 3296-3307
    • Molinari, J.1    Vollaro, D.2
  • 31
    • 0034063381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Origins and mechanisms of eastern Pacific tropical cyclogenesis: A case study
    • Molinari, J., D. Vollaro, S. Skubis, and M. Dickinson, 2000: Origins and mechanisms of eastern Pacific tropical cyclogenesis: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 125-139.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.128 , pp. 125-139
    • Molinari, J.1    Vollaro, D.2    Skubis, S.3    Dickinson, M.4
  • 32
    • 10244222782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone formation in a sheared environment: A case study
    • Molinari, J., D. Vollaro, and K. L. Corbosiero, 2004: Tropical cyclone formation in a sheared environment: A case study. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2493-2509.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.61 , pp. 2493-2509
    • Molinari, J.1    Vollaro, D.2    Corbosiero, K.L.3
  • 33
    • 34247635114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclogenesis within an equatorial Rossby wave packet
    • Molinari, J., K. Lombardo, and D. Vollaro, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis within an equatorial Rossby wave packet. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1301-1317.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.64 , pp. 1301-1317
    • Molinari, J.1    Lombardo, K.2    Vollaro, D.3
  • 35
    • 0032925709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Remotely sensed specific humidity: Development of a derived product from the GOES Imager channel 3
    • Moody, J. L., A. J. Wimmers, and J. C. Davenport, 1999: Remotely sensed specific humidity: Development of a derived product from the GOES Imager channel 3. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 59-62.
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.26 , pp. 59-62
    • Moody, J.L.1    Wimmers, A.J.2    Davenport, J.C.3
  • 36
    • 0000918735 scopus 로고
    • A new vector partition of the probability score
    • Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
    • (1973) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.12 , pp. 595-600
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 37
    • 0025592363 scopus 로고
    • A thermodynamic foundation for modeling the moist atmosphere
    • Ooyama, K. V., 1990: A thermodynamic foundation for modeling the moist atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2580-2593.
    • (1990) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.47 , pp. 2580-2593
    • Ooyama, K.V.1
  • 38
    • 0003006596 scopus 로고
    • On the formation and structure of tropical cyclones
    • Palmén, E. H., 1948: On the formation and structure of tropical cyclones. Geophysics, 3, 26-38.
    • (1948) Geophysics , vol.3 , pp. 26-38
    • Palmén, E.H.1
  • 39
    • 75149141846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pasch, R. J., P. A. Harr, L. A. Avila, J.-G. Jiing, and G. Eliott, 2006: An evaluation and comparison of predictions of tropical cyclone cyclogenesis by three global forecast models. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14B.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/ 108725.pdf.]
    • Pasch, R. J., P. A. Harr, L. A. Avila, J.-G. Jiing, and G. Eliott, 2006: An evaluation and comparison of predictions of tropical cyclone cyclogenesis by three global forecast models. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14B.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/ 108725.pdf.]
  • 40
    • 0022923302 scopus 로고
    • A statistically derived prediction procedure for tropical storm formation
    • Perrone, T. J., and P. R. Lowe, 1986: A statistically derived prediction procedure for tropical storm formation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 165-177.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.114 , pp. 165-177
    • Perrone, T.J.1    Lowe, P.R.2
  • 41
    • 0001476194 scopus 로고
    • On the formation of typhoons
    • Riehl, H., 1948: On the formation of typhoons. J. Meteor., 5, 247-264.
    • (1948) J. Meteor , vol.5 , pp. 247-264
    • Riehl, H.1
  • 42
    • 69949131482 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ruprecht, E., and W. M. Gray, 1974: Analysis of satellite-observed tropical cloud clusters. Tech. Paper 219, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, 91 pp. [Available from Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.]
    • Ruprecht, E., and W. M. Gray, 1974: Analysis of satellite-observed tropical cloud clusters. Tech. Paper 219, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, 91 pp. [Available from Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.]
  • 43
    • 0040994227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sampson, C. R, and A. J. Schrader, 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System version 3.2, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 81, 1231-1240
    • Sampson, C. R., and A. J. Schrader, 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1231-1240.
  • 44
    • 0031821987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone formation
    • Shapiro, L. J., and S. B. Goldenberg, 1998: Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone formation. J. Climate, 11, 578-590.
    • (1998) J. Climate , vol.11 , pp. 578-590
    • Shapiro, L.J.1    Goldenberg, S.B.2
  • 46
    • 69949149285 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stephenson, D., 2004: Skill measures for forecasts of extreme rare events. Abstracts, Climate Extremes and Risk Reduction Conference, London, United Kingdom, Lighthill Institute of Mathematical Science, London, England. [Available online at http://www.ucl.ac.uk/lims/events/ LIMSConf30Nov04.htm.]
    • Stephenson, D., 2004: Skill measures for forecasts of extreme rare events. Abstracts, Climate Extremes and Risk Reduction Conference, London, United Kingdom, Lighthill Institute of Mathematical Science, London, England. [Available online at http://www.ucl.ac.uk/lims/events/ LIMSConf30Nov04.htm.]
  • 48
    • 69949170973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zehr, R. M., 1992: Tropical cyclogenesis in the western north Pacific. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 61, 181 pp. [Available from NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Washington, DC 20233.]
    • Zehr, R. M., 1992: Tropical cyclogenesis in the western north Pacific. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 61, 181 pp. [Available from NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Washington, DC 20233.]


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.