Ensemble-based forecast uncertainty analysis of diverse heavy rainfall events

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 1103-1122

  Schumacher, Russ S ^a,b   Davis, Christopher A ^a  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climatology; Ensembles; Extreme events; Forecast verification; Rainfall

Indexed keywords

BAROCLINIC CYCLONE; CUT-OFF; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS; ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECASTS; ENSEMBLES; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; EXTREME EVENTS; GULF OF MEXICO; HEAVY RAINFALL; HEAVY RAINS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES; LEADTIME; LONG LEADS; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WARM SEASONS; WEATHER SYSTEMS;

CLIMATOLOGY; COASTAL ZONES; HURRICANES; RAIN; STORMS; TROPICS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VORTEX FLOW;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATOLOGY; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTREME EVENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; TROPICAL CYCLONE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; GULF OF MEXICO; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77955567587     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010WAF2222378.1     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Alpert, J. C., D. L. Carlis, B. A. Ballish, and V. K. Kumar, 2009: Using pseudo RAOB observations to study GFS skill score dropouts. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5A.6. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154268.pdf.]
2. Arndt, D. S., J. B. Basara, R. A. McPherson, B. G. Illston, G. D. McManus, and D. B. Demko, 2009: Observations of the overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1079-1093.
3. Bartels, D. L., and R. A. Maddox, 1991: Midlevel cyclonic vortices generated by mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 104-118.
4. Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2004: An hourly assimilation- forecast cycle: The RUC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 495-518.
5. Berg, R., cited 2009: Tropical Storm Ike. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Rep. AL092008, 55 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092008_Ike.pdf.]
6. Beven, J. L., II, and T. B. Kimberlain, cited 2009: Tropical Storm Gustav. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Rep. AL072008, 36 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072008_Gustav.pdf.]
7. Bougeault, P., and Coauthors, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
8. Buizza, R., J.-R. Bidlot, N. Wedi, M. Fuentes, M. Hamrud, G. Holt, and F. Vitart, 2007: The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System). Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 681-695.
9. Carbone, R. E., J. D. Tuttle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier, 2002: Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 2033-2056.
10. Corfidi, S. F., 2003: Cold pools and MCS propagation: Forecasting the motion of downwind-developing MCSs. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 997-1017.
11. Davis, C. A., D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier, 2002: Detection and prediction of warm season midtropospheric vortices by the Rapid Update Cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 24-42.
12. Dirmeyer, P. A., and J. L. Kinter III, 2009: The "Maya Express": Floods in the U.S. Midwest. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90, 101-102.
13. ECMWF, cited 2009a: The creation of perturbed analyses. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_creation_of_perturbed_analyses.html.]
14. ECMWF, cited 2009b: TIGGE model upgrades. [Available online at http://tigge.ucar.edu/documentation.htm.]
15. Fritsch, J. M., and R. E. Carbone, 2004: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 955-965.
16. Fritsch, J. M., R. J. Kane, and C. R. Chelius, 1986: The contribution of mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season precipitation in the United States. J. Appl. Meteor., 25, 1333-1345.
17. Galarneau, T. J., Jr., L. F. Bosart, and R. S. Schumacher, 2010: Predecessor rain events ahead of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.
18. Giordano, L. A., and J. M. Fritsch, 1991: Strong tornadoes and flash-flood-producing rainstorms during the warm season in the mid-Atlantic region. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 437-455.
19. Goebbert, K. H., A. D. Schenkman, C. M. Shafer, and N. A. Snook, 2008: An overview of the summer 2007 excessive rain event in the Southern Plains. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/135330.pdf.]
20. Hamill, T. M., and J. Juras, 2006: Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2905-2923.
21. Hamill, T. M., R. Hagedorn, and J. S. Whitaker, 2008: Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2620-2632.
22. He, Y., F. Wetterhall, H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilson, J. Freer, and G. McGregor, 2009: Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteor. Appl., 16, 91-101.
23. Higgins, R. W., Y. Yao, E. S. Yarosh, J. E. Janowiak, and K. C. Mo, 1997: Influence of the Great Plains low-level jet on summertime precipitation and moisture transport over the central United States. J. Climate, 10, 481-507.
24. Higgins, R. W., W. Shi, E. Yarosh, and R. Joce, 2000: Improved United States precipitation quality control system and analysis. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Atlas No. 7. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/7/index.html.]
25. Houze, R. A., Jr., 2004: Mesoscale convective systems. Rev. Geophys., 42, RG4003, doi:10.1029/2004RG000150.
26. Jung, T., and M. Leutbecher, 2008: Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 973-984.
27. Junker, N. W., R. S. Schneider, and S. L. Fauver, 1999: A study of heavy rainfall events during the Great Midwest Flood of 1993. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 701-712.
28. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Re-analysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
29. Knippertz, P., and A. H. Fink, 2009: Prediction of dry-season precipitation in tropical West Africa and its relation to forcing from the extratropics. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1064-1084.
30. Konrad, C. E., II, 2001: The most extreme precipitation events over the eastern United States from 1950 to 1996: Considerations of scale. J. Hydrometeor., 2, 309-325.
31. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
32. Lorenz, E. N., 1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307.
33. Maddox, R. A., C. F. Chappell, and L. R. Hoxit, 1979: Synoptic and meso-α scale aspects of flash flood events. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60, 115-123.
34. Minnesota State Climatology Office, cited 2009: Heavy rains fall on southeastern Minnesota: August 18-20, 2007. [Available online at http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff070820.htm.]
35. Mo, K. C., J. N. Paegle, and R. W. Higgins, 1997: Atmospheric processes associated with summer floods and droughts in the central United States. J. Climate, 10, 3028-3046.
36. Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2001: Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 638-663.
37. Olson, D. A., N. W. Junker, and B. Korty, 1995: Evaluation of 33 years of quantitative precipitation forecasting at the NMC. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 498-511.
38. Pappenberger, F., J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, H. L. Cloke, R. Buizza, and A. de Roo, 2008: New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033837.
39. Park, Y. Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2008: TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 2029-2050.
40. Romero, R., A. Martin, V. Homar, S. Alonso, and C. Ramis, 2006: Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance. Adv. Geosci., 7, 55-63.
41. Rotunno, R., and C. Snyder, 2008: A generalization of Lorenz's model for the predictability of flows with many scales of motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1063-1076.
42. Schaake, J.C., T.M. Hamill, R. Buizza, and M. Clark, 2007: HEPEX: The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1541-1547.
43. Schumacher, R. S., and R. H. Johnson, 2005: Organization and environmental properties of extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 961-976.
44. Schumacher, R. S., and R. H. Johnson, 2006: Characteristics of United States extreme rain events during 1999-2003. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 69-85.
45. Stensrud, D. J., and M. S. Wandishin, 2000: The correspondence ratio in forecast evaluation. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 593-602.
46. Stewart, S. R., and J. L. Beven II, cited 2009: Tropical Storm Fay. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Rep. AL062008, 29 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL062008_Fay.pdf.]
47. Thielen, J., K. Bogner, F. Pappenberger, M. Kalas, M. del Medico, and A. de Roo, 2009: Monthly-, medium-, and short-range flood warning: Testing the limits of predictability. Meteor. Appl., 16, 77-90.
48. Thompson, P. D., 1957: Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns. Tellus, 9, 275-295.
49. Tuttle, J. D., and C. A. Davis, 2006: Corridors of warm season precipitation in the central United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2297-2317.
50. USGS, cited 2009: 2008 Iowa flood information page. [Available online at http://ia.water.usgs.gov/flood08/index.html.]
51. Wandishin, M. S., S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks, 2001: Evaluation of a short-range multimodel ensemble system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 729-747.
52. Whitaker, J. S., and A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3292-3302.
53. Wilks, D. S., 2005: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 648 pp.
54. Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2003: Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1173-1185.
55. Zhang, F., A. M. Odins, and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2006: Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season precipitation event. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 149-166.