Current and potential statistical methods for monitoring multiple data streams for biosurveillance

Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism: Game Theory, Modeling, Syndromic Surveillance, and Biometric Authentication

Volumn , Issue , 2006, Pages 109-140

  Shmueli, Galit ^a   Fienberg, Stephen E ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b Carnegie Mellon University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 80053183118     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/0-387-35209-0_8     Document Type: Chapter

References (85)

1. Alt, F. B., N. D. Smith, and K. Jain. 1997. "Multivariate quality control." In Handbook of statistical methods for engineers and scientists, edited by H. M. Wadsworth, 2nd ed., 21.1-21.15. New York: McGraw-Hill.
2. Aradhye, H. B., B. R. Bakshi, R. A. Strauss, and J. F. Davis. 2003. "Multiscale statistical process control using wavelets - theoretical analysis and properties." AIChE Journal 49(4):939-958.
3. Armstrong, J. S. 2001. Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
4. Arts, G. R. J., F. P. A. Coolen, and P. van der Laan. 2004. "Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control." Quality Technology & Quantitative Management 1(2):201-216.
5. Aussem, A., and F. Murtagh. 1997. "Combining neural network forecasts on wavelet-transformed time series." Connection Science 9:113-121.
6. Bakshi, B. R. 1998. "Multiscale PCA with application to multivariate statistical process monitoring." AIChE Journal 44:1596-1610.
7. Bay, S., K. Saito, Saito. Ueda, and P. Langley. 2004. "A framework for discovering anomalous regimes in multivariate time-series data with local models." Technical Report, Institute for the Study of Learning and Expertise. http://www.isle.org.
8. Benjamini, Y., and Y. Hochberg. 1995. "Controlling the false discovery rate: A practical and powerful approach to multiple testing." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 57:289-300.
9. Bilenko, M., R. Mooney, Mooney. Cohen, P. Ravikumar, and S. Fienberg. 2003. "Adaptive name matching in information integration. " IEEE Intelligent Systems 18(5):16-23.
10. Box, G., and A. Luceño. 1997. Statistical control: By monitoring and feedback adjustment. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Interscience.
11. Box, G. E. P., G. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel. 1994. Time series analysis, forecasting, and control, 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
12. Bravata, D. M., K. M. McDonald, W. M. Smith, C. Rydzak, H. Szeto, D. L. Buckeridge, C. Haberland, and D. K. Owens. 2004. "Systematic review: Surveillance systems for early detection of bioterrorism-related diseases." Annals of Internal Medicine 140:910-922.
13. Burkom, H. S. 2003. "Development, adaptation, and assessment of alerting algorithms for biosurveillance." Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest 24(4):335-342.
14. Burkom, H. S. 2003. "Biosurveillance applying scan statistics with multiple, disparate data sources." Journal of Urban Health 80:57-65.
15. Casman, E. A. 2004. "The potential of next-generation microbiological diagnostics to improve bioterrorism detection speed." Risk Analysis 24:521-535.
16. Chakraborty, B., and P. Chaudhuri. 2003. "On the use of genetic algorithm with elitism in robust and nonparametric multivariate analysis." Austrian Journal of Statistics 32:13-27.
17. Chatfield, C., A. Koehler, Koehler. Ord, and R. Snyder. 2001. "A new look at models for exponential smoothing." The Statistician, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D 50(2):147-159.
18. Chatfield, C., and M. Yar. 1988. "Holt-Winters forecasting: Some practical issues." The Statistician, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D 37:129-140.
19. Cheng, A., R. Liu, and J. Luxhoj. 2000. "Monitoring multivariate aviation safety data by data depth: Control charts and threshold systems." IIE Transactions on Operations Engineering 32:861-872.
20. Cortez, P., F. S. Allegro, M. Rocha, and J. Neves. 2002. "Real-time forecasting by bio-inspired models." Edited by M. Hamza, Proceedings of the Second IASTED International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Applications, Malaga, Spain. ACTA Press, 52-57.
21. Crato, N., and B. K. Ray. 1996. "Some problems in the overspecification of ARMA and processes using ARFIMA models." Proceedings of the 3rd Congress of the Portuguese Statistical Society. Lisbon: Salamandra Publishing, 527-539.
22. Donoho, D. L., and I. M. Johnstone. 1995. "Adapting to unknown smoothness via wavelet shrinkage." Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(432):1200-1224.
23. Donoho, D. L., I. M. Johnstone, G. Kerkyacharian, and D. Picard. 1996. "Density estimation by wavelet thresholding." The Annals of Statistics 24(2):508-539.
24. Efron, B., J. Storey, and R. Tibshirani. 2001. "Microarrays, empirical Bayes methods, and false discovery rates." Journal of the American Statistical Association 96:1051-1060.
25. Fienberg, S. E., and G. Shmueli. 2005. "Statistical issues and challenges associated with rapid detection of bio-terrorist attacks." Statistics in Medicine 24(4):513-529.
26. Ganesan, R., T. K. Das, and V. Venkataraman. 2004. "Wavelet based multiscale statistical process monitoring - a literature review." IIE Transactions on Quality and Reliability 36(9):787-806.
27. Gesteland, P., R. Gardner, Gardner. C. Tsui, J. Espino, R. Rolfs, B. James, W. Chapman, A. Moore, and M. Wagner. 2003. "Automated syndromic surveillance for the 2002 Winter Olympics." Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 10:547-554.
28. Ghil, M., and R. Vautard. 1991. "Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series." Nature 350(6316):324-327.
29. Ghil, M., and P. Yiou. 1996. "Decadal climate variability: Dynamics and predictability." In Spectral methods: What they can and cannot do for climatic time series, 445-482. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
30. Goldenberg, A., G. Shmueli, Shmueli. A. Caruana, and S. E. Fienberg. 2002. "Early statistical detection of anthrax outbreaks by tracking over-thecounter medication sales." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99:5237-5240.
31. Hamilton, J. D. 1994. Time series analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
32. Harvey, A. C. 1986. "Analysis and generalization of a multivariate exponential smoothing model." Management Science 32:374-380.
33. Hawkins, D. M. 1991. "Multivariate quality control based on regressionadjusted variables." Technometrics 33:61-75.
34. Hawkins, D. M., and D. H. Olwell. 1998. Cumulative sum control charts and charting for quality improvement. New York: Springer.
35. Himmelblau, D., R. Luo, Luo. Misra, S. J. Qin, and R. Barton. 1998. "Sensor fault detection via multi-scale analysis and nonparametric statistical inference." Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research 37:1024-1032.
36. Hogan, W. R., F. C. Tsui, O. Ivanov, Ivanov. H. Gesteland, S. Grannis, J. M. Overhage, J. M. Robinson, and M. M. Wagner. 2003. "Detection of pediatric respiratory and diarrheal outbreaks from sales of over-the-counter electrolyte products." Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 10(6):555-562.
37. Jain, K. 1993. "A Bayesian approach to multivariate quality control." Ph. D. diss., University of Maryland, College Park.
38. Kaiser, H. 1960. "The application of electronic computers to factor analysis." Psychometrika 23:187-200.
39. Kaplan, E., C. Patton, Patton. FitzGerald, and L. Wein. 2003. "Detecting bioterror attacks by screening blood donors: A best-case analysis." Emerging Infectious Diseases 9:909-914.
40. Keogh, E., S. Lonardi, and C. Ratanamahatana. 2004. "Towards parameter-free data mining." Proceedings of the 10th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Seattle, WA.
41. Koehler, A., R. Snyder, and J. Ord. 2001. "Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method." International Journal of Forecasting 17:269-286.
42. Kulldorff, M. 2001. "Prospective time-periodic geographical disease surveillance using a scan statistic." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 164(1):61-72.
43. Lada, E. K., J. C. Lu, and J. R. Wilson. 2002. "A wavelet-based procedure for process fault detection. " IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing 15(1):79-90.
44. Lawson, A. 2001. "Comments on the papers by Williams et al., Kulldorff, Knorrheld and Best, and Rogerson. " Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 164(1):97-99.
45. Lin, J., E. Keogh, Keogh. Lonardi, and B. Chiu. 2003. "A symbolic representation of time series, with implications for streaming algorithms." Proceedings of the 8th ACM SIGMOD Workshop on Research Issues in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.
46. Liu, R., and K. Singh. 1993. "A quality index based on data depth and multivariate rank tests." Journal of the American Statistical Association 88:252-260.
47. Liu, R., and K. Singh. 2002. "DDMA-charts: nonparametric multivariate moving average control charts based on data depth." Technical Report, Rutgers University.
48. Liu, R. Y. 2003. "Data depth: center-outward ordering of multivariate data and nonparametric multivariate statistics." In Recent advances and trends in nonparametric statistics, edited by M. G. Akritas and D. N. Politis, 155-167. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
49. Lucas, J. M. 1982. "Combined Shewhart-CuSum quality control schemes." Journal of Quality Technology 14(2):51-59.
50. Lucas, J. M., and M. S. Saccucci. 1990. "Exponentially weighted moving average control schemes: Properties and enhancements, with discussion. " Technometrics 32:1-29.
51. Makridakis, S., A. Andersen, Andersen. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, and R. Winkler. 1982. "The accuracy of extrapolative time series methods: Results of a forecasting competition. " Journal of Forecasting 1(2):111-153.
52. Marquardt, D. W., and R. D. Snee. 1975. "Ridge regression in practice." American Statistician 29(1):3-20.
53. Montgomery, D. C. 2001. Introduction to statistical quality control, 3rd ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
54. Najmi, A. H., and S. F. Magruder. 2004. "Estimation of hospital emergency room data using OTC pharmaceutical sales and least mean square filters." BioMed Central Medical Informatics and Decision Making 4(5):1-5.
55. Najmi, A. H., and S. F. Magruder. 2005. "An adaptive prediction and detection algorithm for multistream syndromic surveillance." BioMed Central Medical Informatics and Decision Making 5:33.
56. National Institute of Standards and Technology. 2004. NIST/SEMA-TECH e-Handbook of statistical methods.
57. Neumaier, A., and T. Schneider. 2001. "Estimation of parameters and eigenmodes of multivariate autoregressive models." ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software 27:27-57.
58. Ogden, R. T., and E. Parzen. 1996. "Data dependent wavelet thresholding in nonparametric regression with change point applications." Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 6:93-99.
59. Pavlin, J. A., F. Mostashari, Mostashari. G. Kortepeter, N. A. Hynes, R. A. Chotani, Y. B. Mikol, M. A. K. Ryan, J. S. Neville, D. T. Gantz, J. V. Writer, J. E. Florance, R. C. Culpepper, F. M. Henretig, and P. W. Kelley. 2003. "Innovative surveillance methods for rapid detection of disease outbreaks and bioterrorism: Results of an interagency workshop on health indicator surveillance." American Journal of Public Health 93(8):1230-1235.
60. Percival, D., and A. Walden. 2000. Wavelet methods for time series analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
61. Pfeffermann, D., and J. Allon. 1989. "Multivariate exponential smoothing: Method and practice." International Journal of Forecasting 5(1):83-98.
62. Plaut, G., M. Ghil, and R. Vautard. 1995. "Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures." Science 268(5211):710-713.
63. Plaut, G., and R. Vautard. 1994. "Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the northern hemisphere." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 51(2):210-236.
64. Polikar, R. The engineer's ultimate guide to wavelet analysis: The wavelet tutorial. http://users.rowan. edu/polikar/WAVELETS/WTtutorial.html.
65. Rafalin, E., and D. Souvaine. 2004. "Theory and applications of recent robust methods." In Computational geometry and statistical depth measures. Basel: Birkhauser.
66. Reingold, A. 2003. "If syndromic surveillance is the answer, what is the question?" Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science 1(2):1-5.
67. Reis, B. Y., M. Pagano, and K. D. Mandl. 2003. "Using temporal context to improve biosurveillance." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100:1961-1965.
68. Reynolds, M. R. J., and Z. G. Stoumbos. 2004. "Control charts and the efficient allocation of sampling resources." Technometrics 46(2):200-214.
69. Rogerson, P. 2001. "Monitoring point patterns for the development of spacetime clusters." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 164(1):87-96.
70. Safavi, A. A., J. Chen, and J. A. Romagnoli. 1997. "Wavelet-based density estimation and application to process monitoring." AICHE Journal 43(5):1227-1238.
71. SAS Institute, Inc. 2000. SAS online documentation, The VARMAX procedure. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.
72. SAS Institute, Inc. 2004. SAS high performance forecasting user's guide. Version 9. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.
73. SAS Institute, Inc. 2004. SAS online documentation, The ARIMA procedure. Version 9. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.
74. Shmueli, G., and A. Cohen. 2003. "Run length distribution for control charts with runs rules." Communications in Statistics - Theory & Methods 32(2):475-495.
75. Sonesson, C., and D. Bock. 2003. "A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 166(1):5-21.
76. Stoto, M., R. D. Fricker, A. Jain, Jain. O. Davies-Cole, C. Glymph, G. Kidane, G. Lum, L. Jones, K. Dehan, and C. Yuan. 2006. "Evaluating statistical methods for syndromic surveillance." In Statistical methods in counterterrorism: Game theory, modeling, syndromic surveillance, and biometric authentication, edited by A. Wilson, G. Wilson, and D. Olwell. New York: Springer.
77. Stoto, M. A., M. Schonlau, and L. T. Mariano. 2004. "Syndromic surveillance: Is it worth the effort?" Chance 17:19-24.
78. Sullivan, B. M. 2003. "Bioterrorism detection: The smoke alarm and the canary." Technology Review Journal 11(1):135-140.
79. Wagner, M. W., J. M. Robinson, F. C. Tsui, J. U. Espino, and W. R. Hogan. 2003. "Design of a national retail data monitor for public health." Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 10(5):409-418.
80. Willemain, T. R., and G. C. Runger. 1996. "Designing control charts using an empirical reference distribution. " Journal of Quality Technology 28(1):31-38.
81. Wong, W. K. 2004. "Data mining for early disease outbreak detection. " Ph. D. diss., Carnegie Mellon University.
82. Wong, W. K., A. Moore, Moore. Cooper, and M. Wagner. 2002. "Rule-based anomaly pattern detection for detecting disease outbreaks." Proceedings of the 18th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence. MIT Press.
83. Wong, W. K., A. Moore, G. Cooper, and M. Wagner. 2003. "Bayesian network anomaly pattern detection for disease outbreaks." Edited by T. Fawcett and N. Mishra, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference on Machine Learning. Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press, 808-815.
84. Ye, N. 2002. "Multivariate statistical analysis of audit trails for hostbased intrusion detection. " IEEE Transactions on Computers 51(7):810-820.
85. Yiou, P., D. Sornette, and M. Ghil. 2000. "Data-adaptive wavelets and multi-scale SSA." Physica D 142:254-290.