Prospective time periodic geographical disease surveillance using a scan statistic

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

Volumn 164, Issue 1, 2001, Pages 61-72

  Kulldorff, Martin ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

Chronic disease surveillance; Geographical clusters; Infectious disease surveillance; New Mexico; Space time clustering; Spatial statistics; Thyroid cancer

Indexed keywords

EID: 0035649866     PISSN: 09641998     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00186     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Athas, W. F. (1996) Investigation of Excess Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Los Alamos County. Santa Fe: New Mexico Department of Health.
2. Bernardinelli, L. and Montomoli, C. (1992) Empirical Bayes versus fully Baysian analysis of geographical variation in disease risk. Statist. Med., 11, 983-1007.
3. Besag, J. and Newell, J. (1991) The detection of clusters in rare diseases. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 154, 143-155.
4. Besag, J., York, J. and Mollié, A. (1991) Bayesian image restoration with two applications in spatial statistics. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 43, 1-59.
5. Bithell, J. F. (1999) Disease mapping using the relative risk function estimated from areal data. In Disease Mapping and Risk Assessment for Public Health (eds A. Lawson, A. Biggeri, D. Böhning, E. Lesaffre, J. F. Viel and R. Bertollini). Chichester: Wiley.
6. Bjerkedal, T. and Bakketeig, L. S. (1975) Surveillance of congenital malformations and other conditions of the newborn. Int. J. Epidem., 4, 31-36.
7. Boice, J. D., Mandel, J. S., Doody, M. M., Yoder, R. L. and McGrowan, R. (1992) A health survey of radiologic technologists. Cancer, 69, 686-698.
8. Carstensen, J. M., Wingren, G., Hatschek, T., Fredriksson, M., Noorlinde-Brage, H. and Axelson, O. (1990) Occupational risks of thyroid cancer: data from the Swedish Cancer Environment Register, 1961-1979. Am. J. Indust. Med., 18, 535-540.
9. Chen, R. (1978) A surveillance system for congenital malformations. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 73, 323-327.
10. -(1979) Statistical techniques in birth defects surveillance systems. Contrib. Epidem. Biostatist., 1, 184-189.
11. Chen, R., Mantel, N., Connelly, R. R. and Isacson, P. (1982) A monitoring system for chronic diseases. Meth. Inform. Med., 21, 86-90.
12. Choynowski, M. (1959) Maps based on probabilities. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 54, 385-388.
13. Clayton, D. and Kaldor, J. (1987) Empirical Bayes estimates of age-standardized relative risks for use in disease mapping. Biometrics, 43, 671-681.
14. Cliff, A. D. and Ord, J. K. (1973) Spatial Autocorrelation. London: Pion.
15. Cuzick, J. and Edwards, R. (1990) Spatial clustering for inhomogeneous populations (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 52, 73-104.
16. Diggle, P. J. and Chetwynd, A. D. (1991) Second-order analysis of spatial clustering for inhomogeneous populations. Biometrics, 47, 1155-1163.
17. Duffy, B. J. and Fitzgerald, P. J. (1950) Cancer of the thyroid in children: a report of 28 cases. J. Clin. Endocrin. Metablm, 10, 1296-1308.
18. Dwass, M. (1957) Modified randomization tests for nonparametric hypotheses. Ann. Math. Statist., 28, 181-187.
19. Ederer, F., Myers, M. H. and Mantel, N. (1964) A statistical problem in space and time: do leukemia cases come in clusters? Biometrics, 20, 626-638.
20. Hjalmars, U., Kulldorff, M., Gustafsson, G. and Nagarwalla, N. (1996) Childhood leukemia in Sweden: using GIS and a spatial scan statistic for cluster detection. Statist. Med., 15, 707-715.
21. Jacquez, G. M. (1996) A k nearest neighbor test for space-time interaction. Statist. Med., 15, 1935-1949.
22. Järpe, E. (1999) Surveillance of the interaction parameter of the Ising model. Communs Statist. Theory Meth., 28, 3009-3027.
23. Kafadar, K. (1996) Smoothing geographical data, particularly rates of disease. Statist. Med., 15, 2539-2560.
24. Kazakov, V. S., Demidchik, E. P. and Astakhova, L. N. (1992) Thyroid cancer after Chernobyl. Nature, 359, 21.
25. Knox, E. G. (1964) Detection of space-time interactions. Appl. Statist., 13, 25-29.
26. Kulldorff, M. (1997) A spatial scan statistic. Communs Statist. Theory Meth., 26, 1481-1496.
27. -(1999) An isotonic spatial scan statistic for geographical disease surveillance. J. Natn. Inst. Publ. Hlth, 48, 94-101.
28. Kulldorff, M., Athas, W., Feuer, E., Miller, B. and Key, C. (1998a) Evaluating cluster alarms: a space-time scan statistic and brain cancer in Los Alamos. Am. J. Publ. Hlth, 88, 1377-1380.
29. Kulldorff, M., Rand, K., Gherman, G., Williams, G. and DeFrancesco, D. (1998b) SaTScan v 2.1: Software for the Spatial and Space-time Scan Statistics. Bethesda: National Cancer Institute. (Available from http://dcp.nci.nih.gov/BB/SaTScan.html.)
30. Lawson, A. B. and Williams, F. L. R. (1993) Applications of extraction mapping in environmental epidemiology. Statist. Med., 12, 1249-1258.
31. Mantel, N. (1967) The detection of disease clustering and a generalized regression approach. Cancer Res., 27, 209-220.
32. Martuzzi, M. and Elliott, P. (1996) Empirical Bayes estimation of small area prevalence of non-rare conditions. Statist. Med., 15, 1867-1873.
33. Martuzzi, M. and Hills, M. (1995) Estimating the degree of heterogeneity between event rates using likelihood. Am. J. Epidem., 141, 369-374.
34. Parkin, D. M., Muir, C. S., Whelan, S. L., Gao, Y. T., Ferlay, I. and Powell, J. (1992) Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, vol. VI. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer.
35. Prentice, R. L., Kato, H., Yoshimoto, K. and Mason, M. (1982) Radiation exposure and thyroid cancer incidence among Hiroshima and Nagasaki residents. Natn. Cancer Inst. Monogr., 62, 207-212.
36. Radaelli, G. (1996) Detection of an unknown increase in the rate of a rare event. J. Appl. Statist., 23, 105-113.
37. Ries, L. A. G., Kosary, C. L., Hankey, B. F., Miller, B. A., Clegg, L. and Edwards, B. K. (1999) SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1973-1996. Bethesda: National Cancer Institute.
38. Robbins, J. and Adams, W. H. (1989) Radiation effects in the Marshall Islands. In Radiation and the Thyroid (ed. S. Nagataki). Amsterdam: Excerpta Medica.
39. Rogerson, P. A. (1997) Surveillance systems for monitoring the development of spatial patterns. Statist. Med., 16, 2081-2093.
40. -(2001) Monitoring point patterns for the development of space-time clusters J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 164, 87-96.
41. Ron, E., Modan, B., Preston, D., et al. (1989) Thyroid neoplasia following low-dose radiation in children. Radian Res., 120, 516-531.
42. Rushton, G. and Lolonis, P. (1996) Exploratory spatial analysis of birth defect rates in an urban population. Statist. Med., 15, 717-726.
43. Sheehan, T. J., Gershman, S. T., MacDougal, L., Danley, R., Mrosszczyk, M., Sorensen, A. M. and Kulldorff, M. (2000) Geographical surveillance of breast cancer screening by tracts, towns and zip codes. J. Publ. Hlth Mangmnt Pract., 6, 48-57.
44. Shore, R. E., Woodward, E., Hildreth, N., Dvoretsky, P., Hempelmann, L. and Pasternack, B. (1985) Thyroid tumors following thymus irradiation. J. Natn Cancer Inst., 74, 1177-1184.
45. Tango, T. (1995) A class of tests for detecting 'general' and 'focused' clustering of rare diseases. Statist. Med., 14, 2323-2334.
46. -(2000) A test for spatial disease clustering adjusted for multiple testing. Statist. Med., 19, 191-204.
47. Turnbull, B. W., Iwano, E. J., Burnett, W. S., Howe, H. L. and Clark, L. L. (1990) Monitoring for clusters of disease: application to leukemia incidence in upstate New York. Am. J. Epidem., 132, S136-S143.
48. Viel, J. F., Arveux, P., Baverel, J. and Cahn, J. Y. (2000) Soft-tissue sarcoma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma clusters around a municipal solid waste incinerator with high dioxin emission levels. Am. J. Epidem., 151, 13-19.
49. Wallenstein, S. (1980) A test for detection of clustering over time. Am. J. Epidem., 111, 367-372.
50. Wallenstein, S., Gould, M. and Kleinman, M. (1989) Use of the scan statistic to detect time-space clustering. Am. J. Epidem., 130, 1057-1064.
51. Walsh, S. J. and Fenster, J. R. (1997) Geographical clustering of mortality from systemic sclerosis in the Southeastern United States, 1981-90. J. Rheumatol., 24, 2348-2352.
52. Walter, S. D. (1994) A simple test for spatial pattern in regional health data. Statist. Med., 13, 1037-1044.
53. Weatherall, J. A. C. and Haskey, J. C. (1976) Surveillance of malformations. Br. Med. Bull., 32, 39-44.
54. Weinstock, M. A. (1981) A generalized scan statistic test for the detection of clusters. Int. J. Epidem., 10, 289-293.