Detecting abrupt climate changes on different time scales

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Volumn 105, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 445-454

  Matyasovszky, István ^a  

^a EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY   (Hungary)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE VARIATION; DANSGAARD-OESCHGER CYCLE; DATA SET; HOLOCENE; LITTLE ICE AGE; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE;

EID: 80052801118     PISSN: 0177798X     EISSN: 14344483     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-011-0401-4     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Alley RB, Mayewski PA, Sowers T, Stuvier M, Taylor KC, Clark PU (1997) Holocene Climate instability: a prominent widespread event 8200 year ago. Geology 25: 483-486.
2. Amano T, Taniguchi M (2008) Asymptotic efficiency of conditional least squares estimators for ARCH models. Stat Probab Lett 78: 179-185.
3. Baldini JUL, McDermott F, Fairchild IJ (2002) Structure of the 8200-year cold event revealed by a speleothem trace element record. Science 296: 2203-2206.
4. Bollerslev T (1986) Generalized conditional heteroscatisticity. J Econom 31: 307-327.
5. Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Diaz HF (2003) Climate in medieval time. Science 302: 404-405.
6. Braun H (2009) Strong indications for nonlinear dynamics during Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Clim Past Discuss 5: 1751-1762.
7. Braun H (2010) Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Clim Past 6: 85-92.
8. Braun H, Christl M, Rahmstorf S, Ganopolski A, Mangini A, Kubatzki C, Roth K, Kromer B (2005) Possible solar origin of the 1, 470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model. Nature 438: 208-211.
9. Braun H, Ditlevsen P, Chialvo DR (2008) Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies. Geophys Res Lett 35: L06703.
10. 18O records of stalagmites from China, Oman, and Brazil. Geology 37: 1007-1010.
11. Cline DBH, Eubank RL, Speckman PL (1995) Nonparametric estimation of regression curves with discontinuous derivatives. J Stat Res 29: 17-30.
12. Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 14308-14312.
13. Ditlevsen PD, Ditlevsen OV (2009) On the stochastic nature of the rapid climate shifts during the last ice age. J Climate 22: 446-457.
14. Ditlevsen PD, Kristensen MS, Andersen KK (2005) The recurrence time of Dansgaard-Oeschger events and limits on the possible periodic cimponent. J Climate 18: 2594-2603.
15. Engle R (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimation of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrics 50: 987-1008.
16. Fan J (1992) Design-adaptive nonparametric regression. J Am Stat Assoc 87: 998-1004.
17. Fan J (1993) Local linear regression smoothers and their ninimax efficiency. Ann Math Stat 21: 196-216.
18. Fan J, Gijbels I (1992) Variable bandwidth and local linear regression smoothers. Ann Math Stat 20: 2008-2036.
19. Fan J, Yao Q (2005) Nonlinear time series: nonparametric and parametric methods. Springer, New York.
20. Feng G, Gong Z, Zhi R (2010) Latest advances in climate change detection techniques. Acta Meteorol Sin 24: 1-16.
21. Francisco-Fernandez M, Vilar-Fernandez J (2004) Weighted local nonparametric regression with dependent errors: study of real private residential fixed investment in the USA. Stat Inference Stoch Process 7: 69-93.
22. Fletcher WJ, Sanchez Goñi MF, Peyron O, Dormoy I (2010) Abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation detected in a Western Mediterranean forest record. Clim Past 6: 245-264.
23. Fliess M, Join C, Mboup M (2010) Algebraic change-point detection. Appl Algebra Eng Commun Comput 21: 131-143.
24. Fraedrich K, Jiang J, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC (1997) Multiscale detection of abrupt climate changes: application to River Nile flood levels. Int J Climatol 17: 1301-1315.
25. Francq C, Zakoian J-M (2004) Maximum likelihood estimation of pure GARCH and ARMA-GARCH processes. Bernoulli 10: 605-637.
26. Fryzlewicz P, Sapatinas T, Rao SS (2008) Normalized least-squaresestimation in time-varying ARCH models. Ann Math Stat 36: 742-786.
27. Gijbels I, Goderniaux AC (2004) Bootstrap test for change-points in nonparametric regression. J Nonparametr Stat 16: 591-611.
28. Glosten LR, Jagannathan R, Runkle DE (1993) On the Relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess returns on stocks. J Finance 48: 1779-1801.
29. Grove JM (1988) The little ice age. Methuen, New York.
30. He WP, Feng GL, Wu Q, Wan SQ, Chou JF (2008) A new method for abrupt change detection in dynamic structures. Nonlinear Process Geophys 15: 601-606.
31. Hughes AW, King ML, Kwek KT (2004) Selecting the order of an ARCH model. Econ Lett 83: 269-275.
32. Ivanov MA, Evtimov SN (2010) 1963: The break point of the Northern Hemisphere temperature during the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 30: 1738-1746.
33. Jiang J, Mendelssohn R, Schwing F, Fraedrich K (2002) Coherency detection of multiscale abrupt changes in historic Nile flood levels. Geophys Res Lett 29: 1271. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL014826.
34. Johnsen SJ, Dahl-Jensen D, Gundestrup N, Steffensen JP, Clausen HB, Miller H, Masson-Delmotte V, Sveinbjörnsdottir AE, White J (2001) Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland and NorthGRIP. J Quat Sci 16: 299-307.
35. Jones PD, Mann ME (2004) Climate over past millennia. Rev Geophys 42(2): RG2002. doi: 10. 1029/2003RG000143.
36. Jones PD, Parker DE, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2010) Global and hemispheric temperature anomalies-land and marine instrumental records. In Trends: a compendium of data on global change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U. S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U. S. A. doi: 10. 3334/CDIAC/cli. 002.
37. Kaufman DS, Ager TA, Anderson NJ, Anderson PM, Andrews JT, Bartlein PJ, Brubaker LB, Coats LL, Cwynar LC, Duvall ML, Dyke AS, Edwards ME, Eisner WR, Gajewski K, Geirsdottir A, Hu FS, Jennings AE, Kaplan MR, Kerwin MW, Lozhkin AV, MacDonald GM, Miller GH, Mock CJ, Oswald WW, Otto-Bliesner BL, Porinchu DF, Ruhland K, Smol JP, Steig EJ, Wolfe BB (2004) Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0-180°W). Quat Sci Rev 23: 529-560.
38. Kendall RA, Mitrovica JX, Milne GA, Törnqvist TE, Li Y (2008) The sea-level fingerprint of the 8. 2 ka climate event. Geology 36: 423-426.
39. Kobashi T, Severinghaus JP, Brook EJ, Barnola JM, Grachev AM (2007) Precise timing and characterization of abrupt climate change 8200 years ago from air trapped in polar ice. Quat Sci Rev 26: 1212-1222.
40. Lamb HH (1977) Climate history and the future, vol. 2, climate: present, past and future. Methuen, New York.
41. Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmsdorf S, Schellnhuber HJ (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 1786-1793.
42. Li C, Battisti DS, Bitz CM (2010) Can North Atlantic sea ice anomalies account for Dansgaard-Oeschger climate signals? J Climate. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3409. 1.
43. Liew VK-S, Chong T-L (2005) Autoregressive Lag Length Selection Criteria in the Presence of ARCH errors. Econ Bull 3: 1-5.
44. Lutz B, Wiles G, Lowell T, Michaels J (2007) The 8. 2-ka abrupt climate change event in Brown's Lake, Northeast Ohio. Quat Res 67: 292-296.
45. Marshall SJ, Koutnik MR (2006) Ice sheet action versus reaction: distinguishing between Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in the North Atlantic. Paleoceanography 21(PA2021): 13. doi: 10. 1029/2005PA001247.
46. Massé G, Rowland SJ, Sicre M-A, Jacob J, Jansen E, Belt ST (2008) Abrupt climate changes for Iceland during the last millennium: evidence from high resolution sea ice reconstructions. Earth Planet Sci Lett 269: 565-569.
47. Matyasovszky I (2010) Trends, time-dependent and nonlinear time series models for NGRIP and VOSTOK paleoclimate data. Theor Appl Climatol 101: 433-443.
48. Mayewski PA, Rohling EE, Stager C, Karlén W, Maasch KA, Meeker LD, Meyerson EA, Gasse F, van Kreveld S, Holmgren K, Lee-Thorp J, Rosqvist G, Rack F, Staubwasser M, Schneider RR, Steig EJ (2004) Holocene climate variability. Quat Res 62: 243-255.
49. Mousazadeh S, Karimi M, Farrokhrooz M (2007) ARCH parameter estimation via constrained two-stage least squares method. Signal Processing and Application 2007, ISSPA 2007, 9th International Symposium 12-15 Feb. 2007, pp 1-4.
50. Mudelsee M (2000) Ramp function regression: a tool for quantifying climate transitions. Comput Geosci 26: 293-307.
51. Müller HG, Song KS (1997) Two-stage change-point estimators in smooth regression models. Stat Probab Lett 34: 323-335.
52. National Research Council (2002) Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises. National Academy Press, Washigton, DC.
53. North Greenland Ice Core Project members (2004) North Greenland ice core project oxygen isotope data. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2004-059. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. Contributor: Sigfús J. Johnsen, University of Copenhagen.
54. Qiu P, Yandell B (1988) A local polynomial jump detection algorithm in nonparametric regression. Technometrics 40: 142-152.
55. Rahmstorf S (2003) Timing of abrupt climate change: a precise clock. Geophys Res Lett 30: 1510. doi: 1029/2003GL017115.
56. Rahmstorf S (2002) Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120, 000 years. Nature 419: 207-214.
57. Rasmussen SO, Andersen KK, Svensson AM, Steffensen JP, Vinther BM, Clausen HB, Siggaard-Andersen M-L, Johnsen SJ, Larsen LB, Dahl-Jensen D, Bigler M, Röthlisberger R, Fischer H, Goto-Azuma K, Hansson ME, Ruth U (2006) A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination. J Geophys Res 111: D06102. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006079.
58. Schmidt MW, Vautravers MJ, Spero HJ (2006) Rapid subtropical North Atlantic salinity oscillations across Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. Nature 443: 561-564.
59. Smadi MM (2006) Observed abrupt changes in minimum and maximum temperatures in Jordan in the 20th century. Amer J Environ Sci 2: 114-120.
60. Szentimrey T, Farago T, Szalai S (1992) Window technique for climate trend analysis. Clim Dyn 6: 127-134.
61. Thomas ER, Wolf EW, Mulvaney R, Steffensen JP, Johnsen SI, Arrowsmith C, White JWC, Vaughn B, Popp T (2007) The 8. 2 ka event from Greenland ice cores. Quat Sci Rev 26: 70-81.
62. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM, Kennedy JJ, Jones PD (2010) An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970. Nature 467: 444-447.
63. Timmermann A, Gildor H, Schultz M, Tziperman E (2003) Coherent resonant millennial-scale climate oscillations triggered by glacial meltwater pulses. J Climate 16: 2569-2585.
64. Tong H (1990) Non-linear time series. Calderon, Oxford.
65. Vinther BM, Clausen HB, Johnsen SJ, Rasmussen SO, Andersen KK, Buchardt SL, Dahl-Jensen D, Seierstad IK, Siggaard-Andersen M-L, Steffensen JP, Svensson AM, Olsen J, Heinemeier J (2006) A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene. J Geophys Res 111: D13102. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006921.
66. Wishart J (2009) Kink estimation with correlated noise. J Korean Stat Soc 38: 131-143.
67. Zhao F, Xu Z, Huang J (2007) Long-term trend and abrupt change for major climate variables in the upper yellow river basin. Acta Meteorol Sin 21: 204-214.