1963: The break point of the Northern Hemisphere temperature trend during the twentieth century

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 30, Issue 11, 2010, Pages 1738-1746

  Ivanov, Martin A ^a,b   Evtimov, Stilian N ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOFIA   (Bulgaria)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (Bulgaria)

Author keywords

Abrupt climate shift; Northern hemisphere temperature; Trend break

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVITY; BREAK-POINTS; CLIMATE SHIFTS; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; CLIMATIC REGIMES; FORCINGS; GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE; INTERANNUAL; INTERDECADAL CHANGES; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; STATIONARY PROCESS; STATISTICAL TOOLS; SURFACE TEMPERATURES; TEMPERATURE COURSE; TEMPERATURE TRENDS; TREND BREAK; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; STATISTICAL MECHANICS; SURFACE PROPERTIES; TIME SERIES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; DECADAL VARIATION; GLOBAL WARMING; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; TREND ANALYSIS; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EID: 77956565599     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2002     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke R, Pierrehumbert RT, Rhines PB, Stocker TF, Talley LD, Wallace JM. 2003. Abrupt climate change. Science 299(5615): 2005-2010, DOI: 10.1126/science.1081056.
2. Andrews DWK. 1991. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation. Econometrica 59(3): 817-858, DOI: 10.2307/2938229.
3. Andrews DWK, Ploberger W. 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62(6): 1383-1414, DOI: 10.2307/2951753.
4. Baines PG, Folland CK. 2007. Evidence for a rapid global climate shift across the late 1960s. Journal of Climate 20(12): 2721-2744, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4177.1.
5. Barbosa S, Silva ME, Fernandes MJ. 2006. Wavelet analysis of the Lisbon and Gibraltar North Atlantic Oscillation winter indices. International Journal of Climatology 26(5): 581-593, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1263.
6. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD. 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research 111(D12): D12106.1-D12106.21.
7. Burroughs WJ. 2003. Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? (2nd edn.) Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
8. Casti J. 1979. Connectivity, Complexity, and Catastrophe in Large-Scale Systems. John Wiley & Sons: New York.
9. Chatfield C. 1996. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction (5th edn.). Chapman & Hall, CRC Press: Boca Raton.
10. Cohn TA, Lins HF. 2005. Nature's style. Naturally trendy. Geophysical Research Letters 32(23): L23402, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024476.
11. Enfield DB, Mestaz-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ. 2001. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 28(10): 2077-2080.
12. Fomby TB, Vogelsang TJ. 2002. The application of size-robust trend statistics to global-warming temperature series. Journal of Climate 15(1): 117-123, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0117: TAOSRT>2.0.CO;2.
13. Gao J, Hawthorne K. 2006. Semiparametric estimation and testing of the trend of temperature series. Journal of Econometrics 9(2): 332-355, DOI: 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2006.00188.x.
14. Gil-Alana LA. 2008a. Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series. Climatic Change 89(3-4): 325-337, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9407-z.
15. Gil-Alana LA. 2008b. Warming break trends and fractional integration in the northern, southern, and global temperature anomaly series. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25(4): 570-578, DOI: 10.1175/2007JTECHA1025.1.
16. Gordon AH. 1991. Global warming as a manifestation of a random walk. Journal of Climate 4(6): 589-597, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0589:GWAAMO>2.0.CO;2.
17. Hamilton JD. 1994. Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press: Princeton.
18. Hare SR, Mantua NJ. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress In Oceanography 47(2-4): 103-145, DOI: 10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1.
19. 4 year time scales, 2, sensitivity experiments with a seasonal, hemispherically averaged, coupled atmosphere, land, ocean energy balance model. Journal of Geophysical Research 90: 2207-2222.
20. Higuchi K. 1985. Climate variability: a function of data. Third Conference on Climate Variations and Symposium on Contemporary Climate, Los Angeles, California, 1850-2100.
21. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269(5224): 676-679, DOI: 10.1126/science.269.5224.676.
22. Karl TR, Knight RW, Baker B. 2000. The record breaking global temperatures of 1997 and 1998: evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming? Geophysical Research Letters 27(5): 719-722, DOI: 10.1029/1999GL010877.
23. Kim D, Perron P. 2006. Unit Root Tests Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. http://people.virginia.edu/~dk4p/urtrim.pdf.
24. Knox JL, Higuchi K, Shabbar A, Sargent NE. 1988. Secular variation of Northern Hemisphere 50 kPa geopotential height. Journal of Climate 1(5): 500-511, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0500: SVONHK>2.0.CO;2.
25. Lamb HH. 1985. Volcanic loading: The dust veil index. CDIC Numeric Data Collection. Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Oak Ridge.
26. Lanzante JR. 1996. Resistant, robust and non-parametric techniques for the analysis of climate data: theory and examples, including applications to historical radiosonde station data. International Journal of Climatology 16(11): 1197-1226, DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199611)16:11<1197::AID-JOC89>3.0.CO;2-L.
27. Mallat SG. 1989. A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition: the wavelet representation. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 11(7): 674-693, DOI: 10.1109/34.192463.
28. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC. 1997. A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6): 1069-1079.
29. Mills TC. 2006. Modelling current trends in Northern Hemisphere temperatures. International Journal of Climatology 26(7): 867-884, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1286.
30. Mills TC. 2007. Time series modelling of two millennia of Northern Hemisphere temperatures: Long memory or shifting trends?. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 170(1): 83-94, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2006.00443.x.
31. Percival DB, Walden AT. 2000. Wavelet Methods for Time Series Analysis. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
32. Perron P. 2006. Dealing with structural breaks. In Econometrics Theory, New Palgrave Handbook Econometrics, vol. 1, Mills TC, Patterson K (eds). McMillan: London, 278-352.
33. Perron P, Yabu T. 2007. Testing for Shifts in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component, Working Papers Series WP2007-025, Boston University, Department of Economics. http://people.bu.edu/perron/papers/breakpaper.pdf.
34. R Development Core Team. 2009. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www.R-project.org. ISBN 3-900051-07-0.
35. Rayner NA, Brohan P, Parker DE, Folland CK, Kennedy JJ, Vanicek M, Ansell TJ, Tett SFB. 2006. Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. Journal of Climate 19(3): 446-469, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3637.1.
36. Rodionov SN. 2004. A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters 31(9): L09204, DOI: 10.1029/2004GL019448.
37. Ropelewski CF, Jones PD. 1987. An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation index. Monthly Weather Review 115(9): 2161-2165, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2161:AEOTTS> 2.0.CO;2.
38. Scafetta N, Grigolini P, Imholt T, Roberts J, West BJ. 2004. Solar turbulence in earth's global and regional temperature anomalies. Physical Review E 69(2): 026303-1-026303-13, DOI: 10.1103/Phys-RevE.69.026303.
39. Seidel DJ, Lanzante JR. 2004. An assessment of three alternatives to linear trends for characterizing global atmospheric temperature changes. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: D14108, DOI: 10.1029/2003JD004414.
40. Shabbar A, Higuchi K, Knox JL. 1990. Regional analysis of Northern Hemisphere 50 kPa geopotential heights from 1946 to 1985. Journal of Climate 3(5): 543-557, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<0543:RAONHK>2.0.CO;2.
41. Stern DI, Kaufmann RK. 1999. Is There a Global Warming Signal in Hemispheric Temperature Series. http://www.bu.edu/cees/research/workingp/pdfs/9903.pdf.
42. Stock JH. 1994. Unit roots, structural breaks and trends, chap. 46. In Handbook of Econometrics, Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4, Engle RF, McFadden DL (eds.) Elsevier Science: Harvard, 2739-2841, DOI: 10.1016/S1573-4412(05)80015-7.
43. Tomé AR, Miranda PMA. 2004. Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters. Geophysical Research Letters 31(2): L02207, DOI: 10.1029/2003GL019100.
44. Vogelsang TJ, Perron P. 1998. Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time. International Economic Review 39(4): 1073-1100, DOI: 10.2307/2527353.
45. Waldemeier M. 1961. The Sunspot-Activity in the Years 1610-1960. Zurich Schulthess & Company AG: Zurich.
46. Wallace JM, Gutzler DS. 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Monthly Weather Review 109(4): 784-812, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2.
47. Woodward WA, Gray HL. 1995. Selecting a model for detecting the presence of a trend. Journal of Climate 8(8): 1929-1937, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1929:SAMFDT>2.0.CO;2.
48. Zheng X, Basher RE. 1999. Structural time series models and trend detection in global and regional temperature series. Journal of Climate 12(8): 2347-2358, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2347:STSMAT>2.0.CO;2.
49. Zivot E, Andrews DWK. 1992. Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil-price shock and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10(3): 251-270, DOI: 10.2307/1391541.