Parameter uncertainty analysis in watershed total phosphorus modeling using the GLUE methodology

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Volumn 142, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 246-255

  Gong, Yongwei ^a,b   Shen, Zhenyao ^a   Hong, Qian ^a   Liu, Ruimin ^a   Liao, Qian ^a  

^a BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ARCHITECTURE   (China)

Author keywords

Confidence interval; Confidence limit; Non point source pollution; Parameter range; SWAT; Threshold value

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE; ASSESSMENT METHOD; NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PHOSPHORUS; POLLUTION CONTROL; RIVER POLLUTION; THRESHOLD; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATERSHED;

CHINA; CHONGQING; DANING RIVER; THREE GORGES RESERVOIR;

EID: 80051587957     PISSN: 01678809     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2011.05.015     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Abbaspour, K.C. SWAT-CUP Programme Version 2.1.5. 2009-11-10. http://www.eawag.ch/organisation/abteilungen/siam/software/swat/index_EN.
2. Abbaspour K.C., Johnson C.A., van Genuchten M.T. Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure. Vadose Zone J. 2004, 3:1340-1352.
3. Abbaspour K.C., Yang J., Maximov I., Siber R., Bogner K., Mieleitner J., Zobrist J., Srinivasan R. Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. J. Hydrol. 2007, 333:413-430.
4. Arabi M., Govindaraju R.S., Hantush M.M. A probabilistic approach for analysis of uncertainty in the evaluation of watershed management practices. J. Hydrol. 2007, 333:459-471.
5. Arnold J.G., Srinivasan R., Muttiah R.S., Williams J.R. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment: Part I. Model development. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 1998, 34:73-89.
6. Bayes T. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. 1763, 53:370-418.
7. Beven K. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. J. Hydrol. 2006, 320:18-36.
8. Beven K., Binley A. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol. Process. 1992, 6:279-298.
9. Beven K., Freer J. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 2001, 249:11-29.
10. Blasone R.S., Vrugt J.A., Madsen H., Rosbjerg D., Robinson B.A., Zyvoloski G.A. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Adv. Water Resour. 2008, 31:630-648.
11. Dean S., Freer J., Beven K., Wade A.J., Butterfield D. Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk. Assess. 2009, 23:991-1010.
12. Efron B. Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Ann. Stat. 1979, 1-26.
13. Freni G., Mannina G. Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification in water quality modelling: the influence of prior distribution. J. Hydrol. 2010, 392:31-39.
14. Freni G., Mannina G., Viviani G. Uncertainty in urban stormwater quality modelling: the effect of acceptability threshold in the GLUE methodology. Water Res. 2008, 42:2061-2072.
15. Freni G., Mannina G., Viviani G. Uncertainty assessment of an integrated urban drainage model. J. Hydrol. 2009, 373:392-404.
16. Jin X., Xu C.-Y., Zhang Q., Singh V.P. Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model. J. Hydrol. 2010, 383:147-155.
17. Li Z., Shao Q., Xu Z., Cai X. Analysis of parameter uncertainty in semi-distributed hydrological models using bootstrap method: a case study of SWAT model applied to Yingluoxia watershed in northwest China. J. Hydrol. 2010, 385:76-83.
18. Melching C., Bauwens W. Uncertainty in coupled nonpoint source and stream water-quality models. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 2001, 127:403-413.
19. Melching C., Yoon C. Key sources of uncertainty in QUAL2E model of Passaic River. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 1996, 122:105-113.
20. Migliaccio K.W., Chaubey I. Spatial distributions and stochastic parameter influences on SWAT flow and sediment predictions. J. Hydrol. Eng. 2008, 13:258-269.
21. Montanari A. Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resour. Res. 2005, 41:W08406. 10.1029/2004WR003826.
22. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I-a discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 1970, 10:282-290.
23. Neitsch S.L., Arnold J.G., Kiniry J.R., Srinivasan R., Williams J.R. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation, Version 2005 2005, Texas Water Resources Institute, Temple, TX, USA.
24. Selle B., Hannah M. A bootstrap approach to assess parameter uncertainty in simple catchment models. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2010, 25:919-926.
25. Shen Z.Y., Hong Q., Yu H. Parameter uncertainty analysis of the non-point source pollution in the Daning River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. Sci. Total. Environ. 2008, 405:195-205.
26. Sun F., Chen J., Tong Q., Zeng S. Managing the performance risk of conventional waterworks in compliance with the natural organic matter regulation. Water Res. 2008, 42:229-237.
27. Vázquez R.F., Beven K., Feyen J. GLUE based assessment on the overall predictions of a MIKE SHE application. Water Resour. Manage. 2009, 23:1325-1349.
28. Van Griensven A., Meixner T., Grunwald S., Bishop T., Diluzio A., Srinivasan R. A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models. J. Hydrol. 2006, 324:10-23.
29. Xiong L., O'Connor K.M. An empirical method to improve the prediction limits of the GLUE methodology in rainfall-runoff modeling. J. Hydrol. 2008, 349:115-124.
30. Zhang H.X., Yu S.L. Applying the first-order error analysis in determining the margin of safety for total maximum daily load computations. J. Environ. Eng.-ASCE 2004, 130:664-673.