Jackknife evaluation of uncertainty judgments aggregated by the Kullback-Leibler distance

Applied Mathematics and Computation

Volumn 218, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 469-479

  Lin, Shi Woei ^a  

^a YUAN ZE UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

Calibration; Expert aggregation; Expert judgment; Jackknife; Kullback Leibler distance

Indexed keywords

AGGREGATION MODEL; CLASSICAL MODEL; EXPERT AGGREGATION; EXPERT JUDGMENT; EXPERT OPINION; JACKKNIFE; KULLBACK-LEIBLER; KULLBACK-LEIBLER DISTANCE; LARGE DATA; NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS; RESAMPLING; SCORING RULES; STATISTICAL MODELS;

CALIBRATION; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

SEED;

EID: 79960835894     PISSN: 00963003     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2011.05.087     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. A. O'Hagan, C. Buck, A. Daneshkhah, J. Eiser, P. Garthwaite, D. Jenkinson, J. Oakley, and T. Rakow Uncertain Judgments: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities 2006 John Wiley & Sons West Sussex, England
2. R. Cooke Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science 1991 Oxford University Press New York
3. G. Vouros Representing, adapting and reasoning with uncertain, imprecise and vague information Expert Syst. Appl. 19 2000 167 192
4. M.J. de Paula Castanho, L.C. de Barros, A. Yamakami, and L.L. Vendite Fuzzy expert system: an example in prostate cancer Appl. Math. Comput. 202 2008 78 85
5. R.R. Yager Uncertainty modeling and decision support Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 85 2004 191 209
6. R. Clemen, and R. Winkler Aggregating probability distributions W. Edwards, R. Miles, D. von Winterfeldt, Advances in Decision Analysis 2007 Cambridge University Press New York 154 176
7. R. Cooke, and L. Goossens TU delft expert judgment data base Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 2008 657 674
8. G. Klir Generalized information theory: aims, results, and open problems Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 85 2004 21 38
9. J. Helton, J. Johnson, and W. Oberkampf An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 85 2004 39 71
10. S. Plous The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making 1993 McGraw-Hill New York
11. A. Winman, P. Hansson, and P. Juslin Subjective probability intervals: how to cure overconfidence by interval evaluation J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 30 2004 1167 1175 (Pubitemid 39454031)
12. D. Cesarini, O. Sandewall, and M. Johannesson Confidence interval estimation tasks and the economics of overconfidence J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 61 2006 453 470 (Pubitemid 44597117)
13. K. Teigen, A. Halberg, and K. Fostervold More than, less than, or minimum, maximum: how upper and lower bounds determine subjective interval estimates J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 20 2007 179 201
14. R. Clemen Comment on Cooke's classical method Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 2008 760 765
15. S.-W. Lin, and C.-H. Cheng The reliability of aggregated probability judgments obtained through Cooke's classical model J. Model. Manag. 4 2009 149 161
16. N. Dalkey, The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinions, Report No. RM-5888-PR, The Rand Corporation, California, 1969.
17. R. Winkler The consensus of subjective probability distributions Manage. Sci. 15 1968 B61 B75
18. S. French, Group consensus probability distributions: a critical survey, in: J. Bernardo, M. DeGroot, D. Lindley, A. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1985, pp. 183-202.
19. C. Genest, and J. Zidek Combining probability distributions: a critique and annoted bibliography Stat. Sci. 1 1986 114 148
20. M. Stone The opinion pool Ann. Math. Stat. 32 1961 1339 1342
21. V.M. Bier Implications of the research on expert overconfidence and dependence Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 85 2004 321 329
22. T.M. Cover, and J.A. Thomas Elements of Information Theory 2006 Wiley-Interscience Hoboken, NJ
23. R.M. Cooke, and L.L. Goossens Procedures guide for structured expert judgment in accident consequence modeling Radiat. Prot. Dosim. 90 2000 303 309
24. M.H. Quenouille Approximate tests of correlation in time series J.R. Stat. Soc. Series B Stat. Method. 11 1949 68 84
25. M.R. Chernick Bootstrap Methods: A Practitioner's Guide 1999 John Wiley & Sons New York