메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn , Issue , 2007, Pages 154-176

Aggregating probability distributions

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 84925687318     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511611308.010     Document Type: Chapter
Times cited : (124)

References (97)
  • 8
    • 0016522307 scopus 로고
    • A bayesian approach to the linear combination of forecasts
    • Bunn, D. W. (1975). A Bayesian approach to the linear combination of forecasts. Operational Research Quarterly, 26, 325–329.
    • (1975) Operational Research Quarterly , vol.26 , pp. 325-329
    • Bunn, D.W.1
  • 10
    • 84935413018 scopus 로고
    • Interaction of judgmental and statistical forecasting methods: Issues and analysis
    • Bunn, D., and Wright, G. (1991). Interaction of judgmental and statistical forecasting methods: Issues and analysis. Management Science, 37, 501–518.
    • (1991) Management Science , vol.37 , pp. 501-518
    • Bunn, D.1    Wright, G.2
  • 11
    • 84979389663 scopus 로고
    • Testing for unreliable estimators and insignificant forecasts in combined forecasts
    • Chandrasekharan, R., Moriarty, M. M., and Wright, G. P. (1994). Testing for unreliable estimators and insignificant forecasts in combined forecasts. Journal of Forecasting,13, 611–624.
    • (1994) Journal of Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 611-624
    • Chandrasekharan, R.1    Moriarty, M.M.2    Wright, G.P.3
  • 12
    • 0027834549 scopus 로고
    • Some approximations useful to the use of dependent information sources
    • Chhibber, S., and Apostolakis, G. (1993). Some approximations useful to the use of dependent information sources. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 42, 67–86.
    • (1993) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.42 , pp. 67-86
    • Chhibber, S.1    Apostolakis, G.2
  • 13
    • 45249128876 scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
    • Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559–583.
    • (1989) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 559-583
    • Clemen, R.T.1
  • 14
    • 0034250032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing dependence: Some experimental results
    • Clemen, R. T., Fischer, G. W., and Winkler, R. L. (2000). Assessing dependence: Some experimental results. Management Science, 46, 1100–1115.
    • (2000) Management Science , vol.46 , pp. 1100-1115
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Fischer, G.W.2    Winkler, R.L.3
  • 15
    • 0344615346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aggregating forecasts: An empirical evaluation of some bayesian methods
    • D. Berry, K. Chaloner, and J. Geweke (Eds.), New York: Wiley
    • Clemen, R. T., Jones, S. K., andWinkler, R. L. (1996). Aggregating forecasts: An empirical evaluation of some Bayesian methods. In D. Berry, K. Chaloner, and J. Geweke (Eds.), Bayesian statistics and econometrics: Essays in honor of Arnold Zellner. New York: Wiley, pp. 3–13.
    • (1996) Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner , pp. 3-13
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Jones, S.K.2    Winkler, R.L.3
  • 16
    • 0032656018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correlations and copulas for decision and risk analysis
    • Clemen, R. T., and Reilly, T. (1999). Correlations and copulas for decision and risk analysis. Management Science, 45, 208–224.
    • (1999) Management Science , vol.45 , pp. 208-224
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Reilly, T.2
  • 17
    • 0022023946 scopus 로고
    • Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources
    • Clemen, R. T., andWinkler, R. L. (1985). Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources. Operations Research, 33, 427–442.
    • (1985) Operations Research , vol.33 , pp. 427-442
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 18
    • 0002131130 scopus 로고
    • Calibrating and combining precipitation probability forecasts
    • R. Viertl (Ed.), New York: Plenum
    • Clemen, R. T., and Winkler, R. L. (1987). Calibrating and combining precipitation probability forecasts. In R. Viertl (Ed.), Probability and Bayesian statistics. New York: Plenum, pp. 97–110.
    • (1987) Probability and Bayesian Statistics , pp. 97-110
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 19
    • 0000175371 scopus 로고
    • Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters
    • Clemen, R. T., and Winkler, R. L. (1990). Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters. Management Science, 36, 767–779.
    • (1990) Management Science , vol.36 , pp. 767-779
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 20
    • 0027583016 scopus 로고
    • Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach
    • Clemen, R. T., andWinkler, R. L. (1993). Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach. Management Science, 39, 501–515.
    • (1993) Management Science , vol.39 , pp. 501-515
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 21
    • 0032839653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis
    • Clemen, R. T., andWinkler, R. L. (1999). Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 19, 187–203.
    • (1999) Risk Analysis , vol.19 , pp. 187-203
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 24
    • 0002728563 scopus 로고
    • Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples, 1950–1990
    • Davis, J. (1992). Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples, 1950–1990. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,52, 3–38.
    • (1992) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.52 , pp. 3-38
    • Davis, J.1
  • 25
    • 0024981793 scopus 로고
    • Clinical versus actuarial judgment
    • Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., and Meehl, P. A. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 1668–1673.
    • (1989) Science , vol.243 , pp. 1668-1673
    • Dawes, R.M.1    Faust, D.2    Meehl, P.A.3
  • 26
    • 0001918661 scopus 로고
    • La prévision: Ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives
    • Translated in 1980 by H. E. Kyburg, Jr., Foresight. Its logical laws, its subjective sources. In H. E. Kyburg, Jr. and H. E. Smokler (Eds.), Studies in subjective probability(2nd ed.). Huntington, New York: Robert E. Krieger, pp. 53–118
    • de Finetti, B. (1937). La prévision: Ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives. Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré, 7, 1–68. Translated in 1980 by H. E. Kyburg, Jr., Foresight. Its logical laws, its subjective sources. In H. E. Kyburg, Jr. and H. E. Smokler (Eds.), Studies in subjective probability (2nd ed.). Huntington, New York: Robert E. Krieger, pp. 53–118.
    • (1937) Annales De l’Institut Henri Poincaré , vol.7 , pp. 1-68
    • De Finetti, B.1
  • 27
    • 0036660602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of cost uncertainties for large technology projects: A methodology and an application
    • Dillon, R., John, R., and von Winterfeldt, D. (2002). Assessment of cost uncertainties for large technology projects: A methodology and an application. Interfaces, 32(Jul/Aug), 52–66.
    • (2002) Interfaces , vol.32 , Issue.Jul/Aug , pp. 52-66
    • Dillon, R.1    John, R.2    Von Winterfeldt, D.3
  • 29
    • 84984500206 scopus 로고
    • Subjective vs. Objective combining of forecasts: An experiment
    • Flores, B. E., and White, E. M. (1989). Subjective vs. objective combining of forecasts: An experiment. Journal of Forecasting, 8, 331–341.
    • (1989) Journal of Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 331-341
    • Flores, B.E.1    White, E.M.2
  • 31
    • 0001538462 scopus 로고
    • Group consensus probability distributions: A critical survey
    • J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley, and A. F. M. Smith (Eds.), Amsterdam: North-Holland
    • French, S. (1985). Group consensus probability distributions: A critical survey. In J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D. V. Lindley, and A. F. M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian statistics2. Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp. 183–197.
    • (1985) Bayesian Statistics , vol.2 , pp. 183-197
    • French, S.1
  • 35
    • 84988053678 scopus 로고
    • Pooling operators with the marginalization property
    • Genest, C. (1984). Pooling operators with the marginalization property. Canadian Journal of Statistics, 12, 153–163.
    • (1984) Canadian Journal of Statistics , vol.12 , pp. 153-163
    • Genest, C.1
  • 36
    • 84979435951 scopus 로고
    • Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool
    • Genest, C., and McConway, K. J. (1990). Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool. Journal of Forecasting, 9, 53–73.
    • (1990) Journal of Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 53-73
    • Genest, C.1    McConway, K.J.2
  • 37
    • 0005301078 scopus 로고
    • Modeling expert judgments for bayesian updating
    • Genest, C., and Schervish, M. J. (1985). Modeling expert judgments for Bayesian updating. Annals of Statistics, 13, 1198–1212.
    • (1985) Annals of Statistics , vol.13 , pp. 1198-1212
    • Genest, C.1    Schervish, M.J.2
  • 38
    • 84972539429 scopus 로고
    • Combining probability distributions: A critique and annotated bibliography
    • Genest, C., and Zidek, J. V. (1986). Combining probability distributions: A critique and annotated bibliography. Statistical Science, 1, 114–148.
    • (1986) Statistical Science , vol.1 , pp. 114-148
    • Genest, C.1    Zidek, J.V.2
  • 39
    • 21444432031 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Proper analysis of the accuracy of group judgments
    • Gigone, D., and Hastie, R. (1997). Proper analysis of the accuracy of group judgments. Psychological Bulletin, 121, 149–167.
    • (1997) Psychological Bulletin , vol.121 , pp. 149-167
    • Gigone, D.1    Hastie, R.2
  • 40
    • 0011005868 scopus 로고
    • Assessment of a prior distribution for the correlation coefficient in a bivariate normal distribution
    • Gokhale, D. V., and Press, S. J. (1982). Assessment of a prior distribution for the correlation coefficient in a bivariate normal distribution. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 145, 237–249.
    • (1982) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A , vol.145 , pp. 237-249
    • Gokhale, D.V.1    Press, S.J.2
  • 41
    • 0345477618 scopus 로고
    • Action selection and likelihood estimation by individuals and groups
    • Goodman, B. (1972). Action selection and likelihood estimation by individuals and groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 7, 121–141.
    • (1972) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.7 , pp. 121-141
    • Goodman, B.1
  • 42
    • 0032964975 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The expected value of information and the probability of surprise
    • Hammitt, J. K., and Shlyakhter, A. I. (1999). The expected value of information and the probability of surprise. Risk Analysis, 19, 135–152.
    • (1999) Risk Analysis , vol.19 , pp. 135-152
    • Hammitt, J.K.1    Shlyakhter, A.I.2
  • 43
    • 0001701113 scopus 로고
    • Experimental evidence on group accuracy
    • B. Grofman and G. Owen (Eds.), Greenwich, CT: JAI Press
    • Hastie, R. (1986). Experimental evidence on group accuracy. In B. Grofman and G. Owen (Eds.), Information pooling and group decision making. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 129–157.
    • (1986) Information Pooling and Group Decision Making , pp. 129-157
    • Hastie, R.1
  • 44
    • 34248435160 scopus 로고
    • Group vs. Individual performance: Are n + 1 heads better than one?
    • Hill, G. W. (1982). Group vs. individual performance: Are N + 1 heads better than one? Psychological Bulletin, 91, 517–539.
    • (1982) Psychological Bulletin , vol.91 , pp. 517-539
    • Hill, G.W.1
  • 45
    • 0004290958 scopus 로고
    • 2nd ed.). Chichester, England: Wiley
    • Hogarth, R. M. (1987). Judgment and choice. (2nd ed.). Chichester, England: Wiley.
    • (1987) Judgment and Choice
    • Hogarth, R.M.1
  • 46
    • 0001720395 scopus 로고
    • Acquisition of expert judgment: Examples from risk assessment
    • Hora, S. C. (1992). Acquisition of expert judgment: Examples from risk assessment. Journal of Energy Engineering, 118, 136–148.
    • (1992) Journal of Energy Engineering , vol.118 , pp. 136-148
    • Hora, S.C.1
  • 47
    • 2942559303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability judgments for continuous quantitites: Linear combinations and calibration
    • Hora, S. C. (2004). Probability judgments for continuous quantitites: Linear combinations and calibration. Management Science, 50, 597–604.
    • (2004) Management Science , vol.50 , pp. 597-604
    • Hora, S.C.1
  • 48
    • 21144468857 scopus 로고
    • The use of decomposition in probability assessments on continuous variables
    • Hora, S. C., Dodd, N. G., and Hora, J. A. (1993). The use of decomposition in probability assessments on continuous variables. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 6, 133–147.
    • (1993) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.6 , pp. 133-147
    • Hora, S.C.1    Dodd, N.G.2    Hora, J.A.3
  • 49
    • 0024718478 scopus 로고
    • Expert opinion in risk analysis: The nureg-1150 methodology
    • Hora, S. C., and Iman, R. L. (1989). Expert opinion in risk analysis: The NUREG-1150 methodology. Nuclear Science and Engineering, 102, 323–331.
    • (1989) Nuclear Science and Engineering , vol.102 , pp. 323-331
    • Hora, S.C.1    Iman, R.L.2
  • 50
    • 0030134894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Copula models for aggregating expert opinions
    • Jouini, M. N., and Clemen, R. T. (1996). Copula models for aggregating expert opinions. Operations Research, 44, 444–457.
    • (1996) Operations Research , vol.44 , pp. 444-457
    • Jouini, M.N.1    Clemen, R.T.2
  • 51
    • 49649138413 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
    • Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454.
    • (1972) Cognitive Psychology , vol.3 , pp. 430-454
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 54
    • 0035653498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis of colorectal cancer screening regimens
    • Lacke, C. J., and Clemen, R. T. (2001). Analysis of colorectal cancer screening regimens. Health Care Management Science, 4, 257–267.
    • (2001) Health Care Management Science , vol.4 , pp. 257-267
    • Lacke, C.J.1    Clemen, R.T.2
  • 55
    • 33644530360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle
    • Larrick, R. P., and Soll, J. B. (2006). Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle. Management Science, 52, 111–127.
    • (2006) Management Science , vol.52 , pp. 111-127
    • Larrick, R.P.1    Soll, J.B.2
  • 56
    • 0000681384 scopus 로고
    • The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts
    • Lawrence, M. J., Edmundson, R. H., and O’Connor, M. J. (1986). The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts. Management Science, 32, 1521–1532.
    • (1986) Management Science , vol.32 , pp. 1521-1532
    • Lawrence, M.J.1    Edmundson, R.H.2    O’Connor, M.J.3
  • 58
    • 0020815093 scopus 로고
    • Reconciliation of probability distributions
    • Lindley, D. V. (1983). Reconciliation of probability distributions. Operations Research, 31, 866–880.
    • (1983) Operations Research , vol.31 , pp. 866-880
    • Lindley, D.V.1
  • 59
    • 0001009880 scopus 로고
    • Reconciliation of discrete probability distributions
    • J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D.V. Lindley, and A.F. M. Smith (Eds.), Amsterdam: North-Holland
    • Lindley, D.V. (1985). Reconciliation of discrete probability distributions. In J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D.V. Lindley, and A.F. M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian statistics2. Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp. 375–390.
    • (1985) Bayesian Statistics , vol.2 , pp. 375-390
    • Lindley, D.V.1
  • 60
    • 0031997028 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining expert judgment by hierarchical modeling: An application to physician staffing
    • Lipscomb, J., Parmigiani, G., and Hasselblad, V. (1998). Combining expert judgment by hierarchical modeling: An application to physician staffing. Management Science, 44, 149–161.
    • (1998) Management Science , vol.44 , pp. 149-161
    • Lipscomb, J.1    Parmigiani, G.2    Hasselblad, V.3
  • 62
    • 0023573759 scopus 로고
    • Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experience, and insights
    • Merkhofer, M. W. (1987). Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experience, and insights. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 17, 741–752.
    • (1987) IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics , vol.17 , pp. 741-752
    • Merkhofer, M.W.1
  • 63
    • 33645109528 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis of correlated expert judgments from extended pairwise comparisons
    • Merrick, J. R. W., van Dorp, J. R., and Singh, A. (2005). Analysis of correlated expert judgments from extended pairwise comparisons. Decision Analysis, 2, 17–29.
    • (2005) Decision Analysis , vol.2 , pp. 17-29
    • Merrick, J.R.W.1    Van Dorp, J.R.2    Singh, A.3
  • 66
    • 0005935618 scopus 로고
    • Decision analysis expert use
    • Morris, P. A. (1974). Decision analysis expert use. Management Science, 20, 1233–1241.
    • (1974) Management Science , vol.20 , pp. 1233-1241
    • Morris, P.A.1
  • 67
    • 0017466072 scopus 로고
    • Combining expert judgments: A bayesian approach
    • Morris, P. A. (1977). Combining expert judgments: A Bayesian approach. Management Science, 23, 679–693.
    • (1977) Management Science , vol.23 , pp. 679-693
    • Morris, P.A.1
  • 68
    • 0020542186 scopus 로고
    • An axiomatic approach to expert resolution
    • Morris, P. A. (1983). An axiomatic approach to expert resolution. Management Science, 29, 24–32.
    • (1983) Management Science , vol.29 , pp. 24-32
    • Morris, P.A.1
  • 69
    • 45549110613 scopus 로고
    • A critique of current practice for the use of expert opinions in probabilistic risk assessment
    • Mosleh, A., Bier, V. M., and Apostolakis, G. (1987). A critique of current practice for the use of expert opinions in probabilistic risk assessment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 20, 63–85.
    • (1987) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.20 , pp. 63-85
    • Mosleh, A.1    Bier, V.M.2    Apostolakis, G.3
  • 70
    • 0000209313 scopus 로고
    • Experience with forecasting univariate time series and the combination of forecasts
    • Newbold, P., and Granger, C. W. J. (1974). Experience with forecasting univariate time series and the combination of forecasts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 137, 131–149.
    • (1974) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A , vol.137 , pp. 131-149
    • Newbold, P.1    Granger, C.W.J.2
  • 71
    • 0026555448 scopus 로고
    • Expert judgment in risk analysis and management: Process, context, and pitfalls
    • Otway, H., and von Winterfeldt, D. (1992). Expert judgment in risk analysis and management: Process, context, and pitfalls. Risk Analysis, 12, 83–93.
    • (1992) Risk Analysis , vol.12 , pp. 83-93
    • Otway, H.1    Von Winterfeldt, D.2
  • 72
    • 0000351891 scopus 로고
    • The reliability of subjective probabilities obtained through decomposition
    • Ravinder, H. V., Kleinmuntz, D. N., and Dyer, J. S. (1988). The reliability of subjective probabilities obtained through decomposition. Management Science, 34, 186–199.
    • (1988) Management Science , vol.34 , pp. 186-199
    • Ravinder, H.V.1    Kleinmuntz, D.N.2    Dyer, J.S.3
  • 73
    • 38149146273 scopus 로고
    • Improving the accuracy of group judgment; a process intervention combining group facilitation, social judgment analysis, and information technology
    • Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1994). Improving the accuracy of group judgment; A process intervention combining group facilitation, social judgment analysis, and information technology. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 246–270.
    • (1994) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.58 , pp. 246-270
    • Reagan-Cirincione, P.1
  • 74
    • 0000570345 scopus 로고
    • Improving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the delphi technique
    • Rohrbaugh, J. (1979). Improving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the Delphi technique. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 24, 73–92.
    • (1979) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.24 , pp. 73-92
    • Rohrbaugh, J.1
  • 76
    • 0003427442 scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasts: Operational adjustments to theoretically optimal rules
    • Schmittlein, D. C., Kim, J., and Morrison, D. G. (1990). Combining forecasts: Operational adjustments to theoretically optimal rules. Management Science, 36, 1044–1056.
    • (1990) Management Science , vol.36 , pp. 1044-1056
    • Schmittlein, D.C.1    Kim, J.2    Morrison, D.G.3
  • 78
    • 0028147006 scopus 로고
    • Improved framework for uncertainty analysis: Accounting for unsuspected errors
    • Shlyakhter, A. I. (1994). Improved framework for uncertainty analysis: Accounting for unsuspected errors. Risk Analysis, 14, 441–447.
    • (1994) Risk Analysis , vol.14 , pp. 441-447
    • Shlyakhter, A.I.1
  • 79
    • 0027973239 scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data: The u. s. energy sector
    • Shlyakhter, A. I., Kammen, D. M., Brodio, C. L., and Wilson, R. (1994). Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data: The U. S. energy sector. Energy Policy, 22, 119–130.
    • (1994) Energy Policy , vol.22 , pp. 119-130
    • Shlyakhter, A.I.1    Kammen, D.M.2    Brodio, C.L.3    Wilson, R.4
  • 80
    • 0000903399 scopus 로고
    • An examination of group process in judgmental forecasting
    • Sniezek, J. A. (1989). An examination of group process in judgmental forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 171–178.
    • (1989) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 171-178
    • Sniezek, J.A.1
  • 84
    • 0012093477 scopus 로고
    • Modelling expert opinion
    • J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D.V. Lindley, and A. F. M. Smith (Eds.), Amsterdam: New Holland
    • West, M. (1988). Modelling expert opinion. In J. M. Bernardo, M. H. DeGroot, D.V. Lindley, and A. F. M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian statistics, 3, Amsterdam: New Holland, pp. 493–508.
    • (1988) Bayesian Statistics , vol.3 , pp. 493-508
    • West, M.1
  • 87
    • 0002843594 scopus 로고
    • The consensus of subjective probability distributions
    • Winkler, R. L. (1968). The consensus of subjective probability distributions. Management Science, 15, 361–375.
    • (1968) Management Science , vol.15 , pp. 361-375
    • Winkler, R.L.1
  • 88
    • 0000849261 scopus 로고
    • Combining probability distributions from dependent information sources
    • Winkler, R. L. (1981). Combining probability distributions from dependent information sources. Management Science, 27, 479–488.
    • (1981) Management Science , vol.27 , pp. 479-488
    • Winkler, R.L.1
  • 89
    • 0000635469 scopus 로고
    • Expert resolution
    • Winkler, R. L. (1986). Expert resolution. Management Science, 32, 298–303.
    • (1986) Management Science , vol.32 , pp. 298-303
    • Winkler, R.L.1
  • 90
    • 0000847063 scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of weights in combining forecasts
    • Winkler, R. L., and Clemen, R. T. (1992). Sensitivity of weights in combining forecasts. Operations Research, 40, 609–614.
    • (1992) Operations Research , vol.40 , pp. 609-614
    • Winkler, R.L.1    Clemen, R.T.2
  • 91
    • 24144458792 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple experts vs. Multiple methods: Combining correlation assessments
    • Winkler, R. L., and Clemen, R. T. (2004). Multiple experts vs. multiple methods: Combining correlation assessments. Decision Analysis, 1, 167–176.
    • (2004) Decision Analysis , vol.1 , pp. 167-176
    • Winkler, R.L.1    Clemen, R.T.2
  • 93
    • 0027886230 scopus 로고
    • Evaluating and combining physicians’ probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit
    • Winkler, R. L., and Poses, R. M. (1993). Evaluating and combining physicians’ probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit. Management Science, 39, 1526–1543.
    • (1993) Management Science , vol.39 , pp. 1526-1543
    • Winkler, R.L.1    Poses, R.M.2
  • 96
    • 84984500560 scopus 로고
    • The consistency, coherence, and calibration of holistic, decomposed, and recomposed judgmental probability forecasts
    • Wright, G., Saunders, C., and Ayton, P. (1988). The consistency, coherence, and calibration of holistic, decomposed, and recomposed judgmental probability forecasts. Journal of Forecasting,7, 185–199.
    • (1988) Journal of Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 185-199
    • Wright, G.1    Saunders, C.2    Ayton, P.3
  • 97
    • 0025028516 scopus 로고
    • Uncertainties in system analysis: Probabilistic versus nonprobabilistic theories
    • Wu, J. S., Apostolakis, G., and Okrent, D. (1990). Uncertainties in system analysis: Probabilistic versus nonprobabilistic theories. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 30, 163–181.
    • (1990) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.30 , pp. 163-181
    • Wu, J.S.1    Apostolakis, G.2    Okrent, D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.