Modelling the proportion of influenza infections within households during pandemic and non-pandemic years

PLoS ONE

Volumn 6, Issue 7, 2011, Pages

  Kwok, Kin On ^a   Leung, Gabriel M ^a   Riley, Steven ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; COMMUNITY DYNAMICS; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; HEALTH HAZARD; HOUSEHOLD; HUMAN; INFECTION RATE; INFLUENZA; PANDEMIC; SEASONAL VARIATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; FAMILY SIZE; STATISTICS;

DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FAMILY CHARACTERISTICS; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; PANDEMICS;

EID: 79960306780     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022089     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2009) Swine influenza A (H1N1) infection in two children-Southern California, March-April 2009. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 58: 400-402.
2. Fraser C, Donnelly C, Cauchemez S, Hanage W, Van Kerkhove M, et al. (2009) Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings. Science.
3. Lipsitch M, Lajous M, O'Hagan JJ, Cohen T, Miller JC, et al. (2009) Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico. PLoS ONE 4: e6895.
4. Viboud C, Simonsen L, (2010) Does seasonal influenza vaccination increase the risk of illness with the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus? PLoS Med 7: e1000259.
5. Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Hagy A, Reed C, et al. Team NYCSFI (2009) The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis. PLoS Med 6: e1000207.
6. Olson DR, Simonsen L, Edelson PJ, Morse SS, (2005) Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102: 11059-11063.
7. Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung GM, (2006) Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Med 3: e361.
8. Cauchemez S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron AJ, Boelle PY, (2004) A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med 23: 3469-3487.
9. Monto AS, Koopman JS, Longini IM Jr, (1985) Tecumseh study of illness. XIII. Influenza infection and disease, 1976-1981. Am J Epidemiol 121: 811-822.
10. Anderson RM, May RM, (1991) Infectious diseases of humans Oxford Oxford University Press.
11. Hethcote HW, (2000) The mathematics of infectious diseases. Siam Review 42: 599-653.
12. Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Levin SA, Earn DJD, (2004) Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101: 16915-16916.
13. Press WH, (2002) Numerical recipes in C++: the art of scientific computing Cambridge, UK; New York Cambridge University Press.
14. House T, Keeling MJ, (2008) Deterministic epidemic models with explicit household structure. Math Biosci 213: 29-39.
15. Ball F, Neal P, (2002) A general model for stochastic SIR epidemics with two levels of mixing. Mathematical Biosciences 180: 73-102.
16. Fraser C, (2007) Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic. PLoS ONE 2: e758.
17. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM, (2004) Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101: 6146-6151.
18. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, et al. (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437: 209-214.
19. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M, (2004) Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432: 904-906.
20. Bailey NTJ, (1975) The mathematical theory of infectious disease and its applications.; Griffin L, editor.
21. White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, et al. (2009) Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses pp. 1-10.
22. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt LMA, (2006) Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 4: 155-166.
23. Truscott J, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Cauchemez S, Donnelly C, et al. (2009) Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS Curr Influenza pp. RRN1125.
24. Smith DJ, Forrest S, Ackley DH, Perelson AS, (1999) Variable efficacy of repeated annual influenza vaccination. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 96: 14001-14006.
25. Smith DJ, Lapedes AS, de Jong JC, Bestebroer TM, Rimmelzwaan GF, et al. (2004) Mapping the antigenic and genetic evolution of influenza virus. Science 305: 371-376.
26. Jennings V, Lloyd-Smith B, Ironmonger D, (1999) Household size and the poisson distribution. Journal of Population Research 16: 65-84.
27. Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DA, Nair HP, Jordan HT, et al. (2009) Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City school. N Engl J Med 361: 2628-2636.
28. Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, et al. (2009) Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med 361: 2619-2627.
29. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M, (2007) How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc Biol Sci 274: 599-604.
30. Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Bharti N, Conlan AJ, Bjornstad ON, et al. (2008) The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684.