Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information

International Journal of Biometeorology

Volumn 55, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 575-583

  del Ponte, Emerson M ^a   de Maia, Aline H N ^b   dos Santos, Thiago V ^a   Martins, Eduardo J ^a   Baethgen, Walter E ^c  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL   (Brazil)

^b EMBRAPA CERRADOS   (Brazil)

^c Earth Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

Agricultural risk; El Ni o; Plant disease; Probabilistic risk assessment

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BASIDIOMYCETES; BRAZIL; EL NINO; MICROBIOLOGY; PATHOGENICITY; PLANT DISEASE; RISK FACTOR; SEASON; SOYBEAN; STATISTICS; THEORETICAL MODEL;

BASIDIOMYCOTA; BRAZIL; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PLANT DISEASES; RISK FACTORS; SEASONS; SOYBEANS;

GLYCINE MAX;

EID: 79960108634     PISSN: 00207128     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Baethgen WE, Magrin GO (2001) Applications of climate forecasts in the agricultural sector of south east South America. In: Sivakumar MVK (ed) Climate prediction and agriculture. International START Secretariat, Washington DC, pp 248-266.
2. Barros V, Gonzalez M, Liebmann B, Camilloni I (2000) Influence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and South Atlantic sea surface temperatures on interannual summer rainfall variability in southeastern South America. Theor Appl Climatol 67: 123-133.
3. Berlato MA, Fontana DC (1999) Variabilidade interanual da precipitação pluvial e rendimento da soja no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Braz Rev Bras Agrometeorol 7: 119-125.
4. Berlato MA, Farenzena H, Fontana DC (2005) Associação entre El Niño Oscilação Sul e a produtividade do milho no estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Pesqui Agropecu Bras 40: 423-432.
5. Christiano RSC, Scherm H (2007) Quantitative aspects of the spread of Asian soybean rust in the southeastern United States, 2005 to 2006. Phytopatholgy 97: 1428-1433.
6. Coelho CAS, Uvo CB, Ambrizzi T (2002) Exploring the impacts of the tropical Pacific SST on the precipitation patterns over South America during ENSO periods. Theor Appl Climatol 71: 185-197.
7. Costamilan LM, Bertagnolli PF, Yorinori, PT (2002) Avaliação de danos em soja causados por ferrugem asiática. In: Reunião de pesquisa de soja da Região Sul, 30 http://www. cnpt. embrapa. br/biblio/p_do12_15. htm. Accessed 25 October 2009.
8. Costamilan LM, Ferreira PEP (2009) Levantamento de perdas causadas pela ferrugem asiática no Rio Grande do Sul, na safra 2008/09. In: Reunião do Consórcio Antiferrugem Safra 2008-09. Embrapa Soja, Documento 315, p 31.
9. Del Ponte EM, Yang XB (2006) Estrategias de modelaje para la predicción y comunicación del riesgo de epidemias de la roya asiática de la soja. In: Popler LD (Org.). Roya Asiática de la Soja en América. El Libro. Las Talitas, Tucumán: Estación Experimental Agroindustrial "Obispo Colombres", pp 49-62.
10. Del Ponte EM, Godoy CV, Li X, Yang XB (2006a) Predicting severity of Asian soybean rust with empirical rainfall models. Phytopathology 96: 797-803.
11. Del Ponte EM, Godoy CV, Canteri MG, Reis EM, Yang XB (2006b) Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics. Braz Phytopathol 31: 533-544.
12. Del Ponte EM, Esker PD (2008) Meteorological factors affecting Asian soybean rust epidemics-a systems approach and implications for risk assessment. Sci Agric 65: 65-88.
13. Del Ponte EM, Fernandes JMC, Pavan W, Baethgen WE (2009) A model-based assessment of the impacts of climate variability on fusarium head blight seasonal risk in Southern Brazil. J Phytopathol 157: 675-681.
14. Diaz AF, Studzinski CD, Mechoso RC (1998) Relationship between precipitation anomalies in Uruguay and southern Brazil and sea surface temperature in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. J Clim 11: 251-271.
15. Fraisse CW, Cabrera VE, Breuer NE, Baez J, Quispe J, Matos E (2008) El Niño Southern Oscillation influences on soybean yields in eastern Paraguay. Int J Clim 28: 1399-1407.
16. Ferreyra RA, Podestá GP, Messina CD, Letson D, Dardanelli J, Guevara E, Meira S (2001) A linked-modeling framework to estimate maize production risk associated with ENSO-related climate variability in Argentina. Agric For Meteorol 107: 177-192.
17. Godoy CV, Flausino AM, Santos LCM, Del Ponte EM (2009) Eficiência do controle da ferrugem asiática da soja em função do momento de aplicação sob condições de epidemia em Londrina, PR. Trop Plant Pathol 34: 56-61.
18. Grimm AM, Tedeschi RG (2009) ENSO and extreme rainfall in South America. J Clim 22: 1589-1609.
19. IBGE (2010) Indicadores IBGE: Estatística da Produção Agrícola (abril de 2010). http://www. ibge. gov. br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa/default. shtm. Accessed 27 April 2010.
20. Isard SA, Russo JM, Ariatti A (2007) The Integrated Aerobiology Modeling System applied to the spread of soybean rust into the Ohio River valley during September 2006. Aerobiologia 23: 271-282.
21. Kayano M, Andreolli R (2007) Relations of South American summer rainfall interannual variations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Int J Clim 27: 531-540.
22. Kumudini S, Godoy CV, Board JE, Omielan J, Tollenaar M (2008) Mechanisms involved in soybean rust-induced yield reduction. Crop Sci 48: 2343-2350.
23. Maia AHN, Meinke H (2006) From inferential statistics to climate knowledge. Adv Geosci 6: 211-216.
24. Maia AHN, Meinke H (2009) Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models. Int J Clim. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 2042.
25. Maia AHN, Meinke H, Lennox S, Stone R (2007) Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems. Mon Weather Rev 135: 351-362.
26. Mantel N (1966) Evaluation of survival data and two new rank order statistics arising in its consideration. Cancer Chemother Rep 50: 163-170.
27. McKeon GM, Hall WB, Crimp SJ, Howden SM, Stone RC, Jones DA (1998) Climate change in Queensland's grazing lands. I. Approaches and climatic trends. Rangeland J 20: 151-176.
28. Meinke H, Hammer GL (1997) Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: a case study for the Australian peanut industry. Aust J Agric Res 48(6): 789-793.
29. Meinke H, Ryley MJ (1997) Effects of sorghum ergot on grain sorghum production: a preliminary climatic analysis. Aust J Agric Res 48(8): 1241-1247.
30. Melo RW, Fontana DC, Berlato MA (2004) Indicadores de produção de soja no Rio Grande do Sul comparados ao zoneamento agrícola. Pesqui Agropecu Bras 39: 1167-1175.
31. Mota FS (2000) Influência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre o rendimento do arroz irrigado na região de Pelotas (RS). Rev Bras Meteorol 15: 21-24.
32. NOAA (2009) Monthly Atmospheric & SST Indices. http://www. cpc. noaa. gov/data/indices/sstoi. indices. Accessed 6 July 2009.
33. Paegle JM, Mo KC (2002) Linkages between Summer Rainfall Variability over South America and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. J Clim 15: 1389-1407.
34. Pivonia S, Yang XB (2004) Assessment of potential year round establishment of soybean rust throughout the world. Plant Dis 88: 523-529.
35. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscilation. Mon Weather Rev 115: 1606-1626.
36. SAS (2004a) SAS/STAT user's guide, version 9. 1, v. 1-7. SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC.
37. SAS (2004b) SAS/GRAPH software: reference, version 8. SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC, pp 801-858.
38. Scherm H, Yang XB (1995) Interannual variations in wheat rust development in China and the United States in relation to the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation. Phytopathology 85: 970-976.
39. Scherm H, Christiano RSC, Esker P, Del Ponte EM, Godoy CV (2009) Quantitative review of fungicide efficacy trials for managing soybean rust in Brazil. Crop Prot 28: 774-782.
40. Sinclair JB, Hartman GL (1999) Soybean diseases. In: Hartman GL, Sinclair JB, Rupe JC (eds) Compendium of soybean diseases, 4 edn. Am Phytopathol Soc, St. Paul, pp 3-4.
41. Spolti P, Godoy CV, Del Ponte EM (2009) Sumário da dispersão em larga escala das epidemias de ferrugem asiática da soja no Brasil em quatro safras (2005/06 a 2008/09). Embrapa Soja, Documento 317, pp 11-19.
42. Stone RC, Hammer GL, Marcussen T (1996) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384: 252-255.
43. Stone RC, Smith I, McIntosh P (2000) Statistical methods for deriving seasonal climate forecasts from GCM's. In: Hammer GL, Nichols N, Mitchell C (eds) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 135-147.
44. Wang E, Ryley M, Meinke R (2003) Effect of climate variability on event frequency of sorghum ergot in Australia. Aust J Agric Res 54: 599-611.
45. Yang XB (2006) Framework development in plant disease risk assessment and its application. Eur J Plant Pathol 115: 25-34.
46. Yang XB, Scherm H (1997) El Niño and infectious disease. Science 275(5301): 737-741.
47. Yang XB, Tschanz AT, Dowler WM, Wang TC (1991) Development of yield loss models in relation to reductions of components of soybean infected with Phakopsora pachyrhizi. Phytopathology 81: 1420-1426.
48. Yorinori JT, Paiva WM, Frederick RD, Costamilan LM, Bertagnolli PF, Hartman GE, Godoy CV, Nunes J (2005) Epidemics of soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) in Brazil and Paraguay from 2001 to 2003. Plant Dis 89: 675-677.
49. Zhao S, Yao C (1989) On the sea temperature prediction models of the prevailing level of wheat scab. Acta Phytopathol Sin 19: 229-234.