The importance of within-year repeated counts and the influence of scale on long-term monitoring of sage-grouse

Journal of Wildlife Management

Volumn 75, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 1022-1033

  Fedy, Bradley C ^a,b   Aldridge, Cameron L ^a,b  

^a Veterinary Dentistry and Oral Surgery   (United States)

^b FORT COLLINS SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Centrocercus urophasianus; generalized additive models; greater sage grouse; lek; monitoring; population trends; Wyoming

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; DATA ACQUISITION; DEMOGRAPHIC TREND; LEK; MODEL TEST; MONITORING SYSTEM; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION ESTIMATION; POPULATION MODELING; PRECISION; SAMPLING; SPECIES CONSERVATION; WATERFOWL;

UNITED STATES; WYOMING;

ANIMALIA; CENTROCERCUS UROPHASIANUS;

EID: 79959702723     PISSN: 0022541X     EISSN: 19372817     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.155     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Aldridge, C. L., and, M. S. Boyce., 2007. Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse. Ecological Applications 17: 508-526. (Pubitemid 46607410)
2. Aldridge, C. L., and, M. S. Boyce., 2008. Accounting for fitness: combining survival and selection when assessing wildlife-habitat relationships. Israel Journal of Ecology and Evolution 54: 389-419.
3. Alonso, J. C., C. Palacin, C. A. Martin, N. Mouati, Z. L. Arhzaf, and, D. Azizi., 2005. The Great Bustard Otis tarda in Morocco: a re-evaluation of its status based on recent survey results. Ardeola 52: 79-90. (Pubitemid 41615448)
4. Atkinson, P. W., G. E. Austin, M. M. Rehfisch, H. Baker, P. Cranswick, M. Kershaw, J. Robinson, R. H. W. Langston, D. A. Stroud, C. Van Turnhout, and, I. M. D. Maclean., 2006. Identifying declines in waterbirds: the effects of missing data, population variability and count period on the interpretation of long-term survey data. Biological Conservation 130: 549-559. (Pubitemid 43675665)
5. Beck, T. D. I., and, C. E. Braun., 1980. The strutting ground count, variation, traditionalism, management needs. Proceedings of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies 60: 558-566.
6. Berryman, A. A., 2002. Population cycles causes and analysis. Pages 3-28 in, A. A. Berryman, editor. Population cycles. The case for trophic interactions. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA.
7. Braun, C. E., 1998. Sage grouse declines in western North America: what are the problems? Proceedings of the Western Association of State Fish and Wildlife Agencies 78: 139-156.
8. Braun, C. E., T. E. Britt, and, R. O. Wallestad., 1977. Guidelines for maintenance of sage grouse habitats. Wildlife Society Bulletin 5: 99-106.
9. Broms, K., J. R. Skalski, J. J. Millspaugh, C. A. Hagen, and, J. H. Schulz., 2010. Using statistical population reconstruction to estimate demographic trends in small game populations. Journal of Wildlife Management 74: 310-317.
10. Chitty, D., 1960. Population processes in the vole and their relevance to general theory. Canadian Journal of Zoology 38: 99-113.
11. Connelly, J. W., and, C. E. Braun., 1997. Long-term changes in sage grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations in western North America. Wildlife Biology 3-4: 229-234. (Pubitemid 28111253)
12. Connelly, J. W., S. T. Knick, M. A. Schroeder, and, S. J. Stiver., 2004. Conservation assessment of greater sage-grouse and sagebrush habitats. in Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA.
13. Connelly, J. W., K. P. Reese, E. O. Garton, and, M. L. Commons-Kemner., 2003. Response of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations to different levels of exploitation in Idaho, USA. Wildlife Biology 9: 335-340. (Pubitemid 38192603)
14. Connelly, J. W., M. A. Schroeder, A. R. Sands, and, C. E. Braun., 2000. Guidelines to manage sage-grouse populations and their habitats. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28: 967-985. (Pubitemid 32113748)
15. Dalke, P. D., D. B. Pyrah, and, D. C. Stanton., 1963. Ecology, productivity and management of sage grouse in Idaho. Journal of Wildlife Management 27: 810-841.
16. Doherty, K. E., D. E. Naugle, B. L. Walker, and, J. M. Graham., 2008. Greater sage-grouse winter habitat selection and energy development. Journal of Wildlife Management 72: 187-195. (Pubitemid 351171963)
17. Emmons, S. R., and, C. E. Braun., 1984. Lek attendance of male sage grouse. Journal of Wildlife Management 48: 1023-1028. (Pubitemid 17244655)
18. Fedy, B. C., and, K. E. Doherty., 2011. Population cycles are highly correlated over long time series and large spatial scales in two unrelated species: greater sage-grouse and cottontail rabbits. Oecologia 165: 915-924.
19. Fewster, R. M., S. T. Buckland, G. M. Siriwardena, S. R. Baillie, and, J. D. Wilson., 2000. Analysis of population trends for farmland birds using generalized additive models. Ecology 81: 1970-1984. (Pubitemid 30466622)
20. Fonseca, L. G., G. A. Murillo, L. Guadamuz, R. M. Spinola, and, R. A. Valverde., 2009. Downward but stable trend in the abundance of arribada olive ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) at Nancite beach, Costa Rica (1971-2007). Chelonian Conservation and Biology 8: 19-27.
21. Garton, E. O., J. W. Connelly, J. S. Horne, C. A. Hagen, A. Moser, and, M. A. Schroeder., In press. Greater sage-grouse population dynamics and probability of persistence. Studies in Avian Biology.
22. Garton, E. O., D. D. Musil, K. P. Reese, J. W. Connelly, and, C. L. Anderston., 2007. Sentinel lek-routes: an integrated sampling approach to estimate greater sage-grouse population characteristics. Pages 15-23 in, K. P. Reese, and, R. T. Bowyer, editors. Monitoring populations of sage-grouse. Proceedings of a Symposium at Idaho State University Idaho State University, Moscow, USA.
23. Geissler, P. H., and, B. R. Noon., 1981. Estimates of avian population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Studies in Avian Biology 6: 42-51.
24. Gill, R. B., 1966. Weather and sage grouse productivity. Outdoor Information Leaflet, Colorado Department of, Game, Fish and Parks, Denver, Colorado, USA.
25. Grosbois, V., O. Gimenez, J. M. Gaillard, R. Pradel, C. Barbraud, J. Clobert, A. P. Moller, and, H. Weimerskirch., 2008. Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations. Biological Reviews 83: 357-399. (Pubitemid 352020261)
26. Hastie, T., and, R. Tibshirani., 1990. Generalized additive models. Volume 43. Chapman and Hall, New York City, New York, USA.
27. Hewson, C. M., and, D. G. Noble., 2009. Population trends of breeding birds in British woodlands over a 32-year period: relationships with food, habitat use and migratory behaviour. Ibis 151: 464-486.
28. Holloran, M. J., B. J. Heath, A. G. Lyon, S. J. Slater, J. L. Kuipers, and, S. H. Anderson., 2005. Greater sage-grouse nesting habitat selection and success in Wyoming. Journal of Wildlife Management 69: 638-649. (Pubitemid 41129913)
29. Ims, R. A., J.-A. Henden, and, S. T. Killengreen., 2008. Collapsing population cycles. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23: 79-86. (Pubitemid 351191693)
30. Jenni, D. A., and, J. E. Hartzler., 1978. Attendance at a sage grouse lek: implications for spring censuses. Journal of Wildlife Management 42: 46-52.
31. Johnson, D. H., and, M. M. Rowland., 2007. The utility of lek counts for monitoring greater sage-grouse. Pages 15-23 in, K. P. Reese, and, R. T. Bowyer, editors. Monitoring populations of sage-grouse. Proceedings of a Symposium at Idaho State University, Moscow, USA.
32. June, J. W., 1963. Wyoming sage-grouse population measurement. Proceedings of the Western Association of State Game and Fish Commission 43: 206-211.
33. Knick, S. T., D. S. Dobkin, J. T. Rotenberry, M. A. Schroeder, W. M. Vander Haegen, and, C. van Riper., 2003. Teetering on the edge or too late? Conservation and research issues for avifauna of sagebrush habitats. Condor 105: 611-634. (Pubitemid 37417921)
34. Kolzsch, A., S. A. Saether, H. Gustafsson, P. Fiske, J. Hoglund, and, J. A. Kalas., 2007. Population fluctuations and regulation in great snipe: a time-series analysis. Journal of Animal Ecology 76: 740-749. (Pubitemid 46956572)
35. LaMontagne, J. M., R. L. Irvine, and, E. E. Crone., 2003. Spatial patterns of population regulation in sage grouse (Centrocercus spp.) population viability analysis. Journal of Animal Ecology 72: 1103-1103.
36. Lindenmayer, D. B., and, M. A. McCarthy., 2006. Evaluation of PVA models of arboreal marsupials: coupling models with long-term monitoring data. Biodiversity and Conservation 15: 4079-4096. (Pubitemid 44900331)
37. Lyon, A. G., and, S. H. Anderson., 2003. Potential gas development impacts on sage grouse nest initiation and movement. Wildlife Society Bulletin 31: 486-491. (Pubitemid 36854647)
38. Mazzetta, C., S. Brooks, and, S. N. Freernan., 2007. On smoothing trends in population index modeling. Biometrics 63: 1007-1014. (Pubitemid 350212584)
39. Morris, W. F., P. L. Bloch, B. R. Hudgens, L. C. Moyle, and, J. R. Stinchcombe., 2002. Population viability analysis in endangered species recovery plans: past use and future improvements. Ecological Applications 12: 708-712. (Pubitemid 36516787)
40. Moss, R., and, A. Watson., 2001. Population cycles in birds of the grouse family (Tetraonidae). Pages 53-111 in, H. Caswell, editor. Advances in ecological research. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
41. Mountford, M. D., 1982. Estimation of population fluctuations with application to the common bird census. Applied Statistics 31: 135-143.
42. Mountford, M. D., 1985. An index of population change with application to the Common Birds Census. Pages 121-132 in, B. J. T. Morgan, and, P. M. North, editors. Statistics in ornithology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
43. Niemuth, N. D., and, M. S. Boyce., 2004. Influence of landscape composition on sharp-tailed grouse lek location and attendance in Wisconsin pine barrens. Ecoscience 11: 209-217. (Pubitemid 39052071)
44. Patterson, R. L., 1952. The sage grouse in Wyoming. Sage Books, Inc., Denver, Colorado, USA.
45. Pellet, J., B. R. Schmidt, F. Fivaz, N. Perrin, and, K. Grossenbacher., 2006. Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog. Oecologia 149: 65-71. (Pubitemid 44366208)
46. Robinson, R. A., G. M. Siriwardena, and, H. Q. P. Crick., 2005. Size and trends of the House Sparrow Passer domesticus population in Great Britain. Ibis 147: 552-562. (Pubitemid 41033508)
47. Rothery, P., and, D. B. Roy., 2001. Application of generalized additive models to butterfly transect count data. Journal of Applied Statistics 28: 897-909. (Pubitemid 32876534)
48. Sauer, J. R., and, P. H. Geissler., 1990. Estimation of annual indices from roadside counts. Pages 58-62 in, J. R. Sauer, and, S. Droege, editors. Survey designs and statistical methods for the estimation of avian population trends. Biological Report 90. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D.C., USA.
49. Schroeder, M. A., C. L. Aldridge, A. D. Apa, J. R. Bohne, C. E. Braun, S. D. Bunnell, J. W. Connelly, P. A. Deibert, S. C. Gardner, M. A. Hilliard, G. D. Kobriger, S. M. McAdam, C. W. McCarthy, J. J. McCarthy, D. L. Mitchell, E. V. Rickerson, and, S. J. Stiver., 2004. Distribution of sage-grouse in North America. Condor 106: 363-376. (Pubitemid 38587844)
50. Schroeder, M. A., J. R. Young, and, C. E. Braun., 1999. Sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Pages 1-28 in, A. Poole, and, F. Gill, editors. The birds of North America, no. 425. The Birds of North America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
51. Sedinger, J. S., 2007. Improving understanding and assessment of greater sage-grouse populations. Pages 43-56 in, K. P. Reese, and, R. T. Bowyer, editors. Monitoring populations of sage-grouse. Proceedings of a Symposium at Idaho State University, Moscow, USA.
52. Seoane, J., and, L. M. Carrascal., 2008. Interspecific differences in population trends of Spanish birds are related to habitat and climatic preferences. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 111-121. (Pubitemid 350218027)
53. Siriwardena, G. M., 2004. Possible roles of habitat, competition and avian nest predation in the decline of the Willow Tit Parus montanus in Britain. Bird Study 51: 193-202. (Pubitemid 39464642)
54. Soldaat, L., H. Visser, M. van Roomen, and, A. van Strien., 2007. Smoothing and trend detection in waterbird monitoring data using structural time-series analysis and the Kalman filter. Journal of Ornithology 148: S351-S357. (Pubitemid 350238489)
55. Spinola, R. M., and, R. Gates., 2008. Population status and trends of northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) in Ohio: 1984-2004. Ohio Journal of Science 108: 26-30.
56. Thomas, L., 1996. Monitoring long-term population change: why are there so many analysis methods? Ecology 77: 49-58.
57. Visser, H., 2004. Estimation and detection of flexible trends. Atmospheric Environment 38: 4135-4145. (Pubitemid 38844705)
58. Wakamiya, S. M., and, C. L. Roy., 2009. Use of monitoring data and population viability analysis to inform reintroduction decisions: peregrine falcons in the Midwestern United States. Biological Conservation 142: 1767-1776.
59. Walker, B. L., D. E. Naugle, and, K. E. Doherty., 2007. Greater sage-grouse population response to energy development and habitat loss. Journal of Wildlife Management 71: 2644-2654.
60. Walsh, D. P., G. C. White, T. E. Remington, and, D. C. Bowden., 2004. Evaluation of the lek-count index for greater sage-grouse. Wildlife Society Bulletin 32: 56-68. (Pubitemid 38537030)
61. Warren, P., and, D. Baines., 2008. Current status and recent trends in numbers and distribution of Black Grouse Tetrao tetrix in northern England. Bird Study 55: 94-99. (Pubitemid 351449608)
62. Williams, B. K., J. D. Nichols, and, M. J. Conroy., 2002. Analysis and management of animal populations. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
63. Williams, C. K., A. R. Ives, R. D. Applegate, and, J. Ripa., 2004. The collapse of cycles in the dynamics of North American grouse populations. Ecology Letters 7: 1135-1142. (Pubitemid 39588345)
64. Wisdom, M. J., M. M. Rowland, B. C. Wales, M. A. Hemstrom, W. J. Hann, M. G. Raphael, R. S. Holthausen, R. A. Gravenmier, and, T. D. Rich., 2002. Modeled effects of sagebrush-steppe restoration on Greater Sage-Grouse in the interior Columbia Basin, USA. Conservation Biology 16: 1223-1231. (Pubitemid 35169629)
65. Wood, S. N., 2006. Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. Chapman and Hall, New York City, New York, USA.
66. Woods, S. N., 2008. Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 70: 495-518.
67. Wright, L. J., R. A. Hoblyn, R. E. Green, C. G. R. Bowden, J. W. Mallord, W. J. Sutherland, and, P. M. Dolman., 2009. Importance of climatic and environmental change in the demography of a multi-brooded passerine, the woodlark Lullula arborea. Journal of Animal Ecology 78: 1191-1202.
68. Yamamura, K., M. Yokozawa, M. Nishimori, Y. Ueda, and, T. Yokosuka., 2006. How to analyze long-term insect population dynamics under climate change: 50-year data of three insect pests in paddy fields. Population Ecology 48: 31-48. (Pubitemid 43168162)