A neural network based dynamic forecasting model for Trend Impact Analysis

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 76, Issue 7, 2009, Pages 952-962

  Agami, Nedaa ^a   Atiya, Amir ^b   Saleh, Mohamed ^a   El Shishiny, Hisham ^c  

^a Cairo University   (Egypt)

^b CAIRO UNIVERSITY   (Egypt)

^c IBM Center for Advanced Studies in Cairo   (Egypt)

Author keywords

Forecasting; Neural networks; Trend Impact Analysis

Indexed keywords

DYNAMIC FORECASTING; DYNAMIC MECHANISM; IMPACT ANALYSIS; MONTE CARLO SIMULATION; NEW APPROACHES; PREDICTION PROCESS; STATE OF THE ART; TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS;

DIFFERENTIAL AMPLIFIERS; NEURAL NETWORKS;

FORECASTING;

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FORECASTING METHOD; FUTURE PROSPECT; MODEL; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; TREND ANALYSIS;

EID: 67651183647     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.12.004     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies
2. Ramos J. Action research and futures studies. Futures 38 (2006)
3. Cornish E. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (2005), World Future Society, USA
4. Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (1996), Currency
5. Gordon T. Trend Impact Analysis, "Futures Research Methodology V2", CD ROM, the Millennium Project (2003), American Council for the United Nations University
6. Gordon T. The Delphi method, "Futures Research Methodology V2", CD ROM, the Millennium Project (2003), American Council for the United Nations University
7. Gordon T., and Pease A. RT Delphi: an efficient, "round-less" almost real time Delphi method. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73 4 (2006)
8. Gordon T., and Glenn J. Environmental Scanning, "Futures Research Methodology V2", CD ROM, the Millennium Project (2003), American Council for the United Nations University
9. N. Agami, A. Omran, M. Saleh, H. El-Shishiny, An Enhanced Approach for Trend Impact Analysis, Technol. Forecast. Soc Change 75 (9) (2008) 1439-1450.
10. Alpaydin E. Introduction to Machine Learning (2004), MIT Press
11. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network
12. Haykin S. Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation. 2nd edition (1999), Prentice Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River, NJ
13. Hayati M., and Shirvany Y. Artificial neural network approach for short term load forecasting for Illam region. Int. J. Electr., Comput. Syst. Eng. 1 2 (2007)
14. Hagan M.T., Demuth H.B., and Beale M.H. Neural Network Design (1996), PWS Publishing Company, Boston, Massachusetts
15. Zurada J.M. Introduction to Artificial Neural Systems (1992), West Publishing Company, Saint Paul, Minnesota
16. N. Kamel, A. Atiya, N. El Gayar, H. El-Shishiny, An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting, Econometrics Review, (2009) in press.
17. Bengio S., Fessant F., and Collobert D. A Connectionist System for Medium-term Horizon Time Series Prediction. Proc. Intl. Workshop Application Neural Networks to Telecoms (1995) 308-315
18. Patterson D.W., Chan K.H., and Tan C.M. Time Series Forecasting with Neural Nets: A Comparative Study. Proc. the international conference on neural network applications to signal processing NNASP, Singapore (1993) 269-274
19. http://www.r-project.org/
20. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2006/proceed/papers/ALBOR145.pdf