Models as multiple working hypotheses: Hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands

Hydrological Processes

Volumn 25, Issue 11, 2011, Pages 1784-1799

  Buytaert, Wouter ^a   Beven, Keith ^b  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Hypothesis testing; Modelling; Wetlands

Indexed keywords

ALPINE WETLAND; BASEFLOWS; CATCHMENT SCALE; DRINKING WATER; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION; HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS; HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATIONS; HYDROPOWER PLANTS; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; IRRIGATION SCHEMES; LAND-USE CHANGE; MODEL PARAMETERS; MODEL PREDICTION; MODEL REPRESENTATION; MODELLING; SMALL SCALE; SOCIO-ECONOMICS; SPATIAL VARIABILITY; SURFACE RUNOFF GENERATION; UPLAND CATCHMENT; WATER SOURCE;

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORESTRY; POTABLE WATER; RUNOFF; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER SUPPLY; WATER TOWERS; WETLANDS;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

ALPINE ENVIRONMENT; CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; GRASSLAND; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; LAND USE CHANGE; RUNOFF; WETLAND;

ANDES; ECUADOR;

EID: 79956041881     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: 10991085     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7936     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M. 1998. Crop Evapotranspiration. Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. FAO, Rome.
2. Andréassian V, Lerat J, Loumagne C, Mathevet T, Michel C, Oudin L, Perrin C. 2007. What is really undermining hydrologic science today? Hydrological Processes 21: 2819-2822.
3. Bastola S, Ishidaira H, Takeuchi K. 2008. Regionalisation of hydrological model parameters under parameter uncertainty: a case study involving topmodel and basins across the globe. Journal of Hydrology 357: 188-206.
4. Beven KJ. 1997. Topmodel: a critique. Hydrological Processes 11: 1069-1086.
5. Beven KJ. 2001a. On hypothesis testing in hydrology. Hydrological Processes 15: 1655-1657.
6. Beven KJ. 2001b. Rainfall-runoff Modelling: The Primer. John Wiley & sons, Ltd.: Chichester.
7. Beven KJ. 2006a. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 320: 18-36.
8. Beven KJ. 2006b. On undermining the science? Hydrological Processes 20: 3141-3146.
9. Beven KJ. 2006c. Searching for the holy grail of scientific hydrology: $Q-{t} = H({\buildrel S \over \leftarrow} {\buildrel R \over \leftarrow})A$ as a closure. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3: 769-792.
10. Beven KJ. 2008. On doing better hydrological science. Hydrological Processes 22: 3549-3553.
11. Beven KJ. 2009. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? Routeledge: London.
12. Beven KJ. 2010. Preferential flows and residence time distributions: some issues in defining adequate hypothesis tests for hydrological models. Hydrological Processes 24: 1537-1547.
13. Beven KJ, Binley A. 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes 6: 279-298.
14. Buytaert W, De Bièvre B, Célleri R, Cisneros F, Wyseure G, Deckers S. 2008. Comment on "Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the northern and central Andes". (Carol P. Harden. Geomorphology 79: 249-263). Geomorphology 96: 239-242.
15. Beven KJ, Freer J. 2001a. A dynamic topmodel. Hydrological Processes 15: 1993-2011.
16. Beven KJ, Freer J. 2001b. Equifinality, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the glue methodology. Journal of Hydrology 249: 11-29.
17. Beven KJ, Kirkby MJ. 1979. A physically based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin 24: 43-69.
18. Beven KJ, Lamb R, Quinn P, Romanowicz R, Freer J. 1995. Topmodel. In Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, Singh VP (ed.). Water Resources Publications: Colorado; 627-668.
19. Blazkova S, Beven KJ, Tacheci P, Kulasova A. 2002. Testing the distributed water table predictions of topmodel (allowing for uncertainty in model calibration): the death of topmodel? Water Resources Research 38: 1257.
20. Bragg OM. 2002. Hydrology of peat-forming wetlands in Scotland. Science of the Total Environment 294: 111-129.
21. Bruijnzeel LA, Veneklaas EJ. 1998. Climatic conditions and tropical montaine forest production: the fog has not lifted yet. Ecology 79: 3-9.
22. Buytaert W. 2004. The properties of the soils of the south Ecuadorian páramo and the impact of land use changes on their hydrology. PhD thesis, Faculty of Agricultural and Applied Biological Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
23. Buytaert W, Beven KJ. 2009. Regionalization as a learning process. Water Resources Research 45: W11419.
24. Buytaert W, Célleri R, De Bièvre B, Hofstede R, Cisneros F, Wyseure G, Deckers J. 2006a. Human impact on the hydrology of the Andean páramos. Earth-Science Reviews 79: 53-72.
25. Buytaert W, Célleri R, Willems P, De Bièvre B, Wyseure G. 2006b. Spatial and temporal rainfall variability in mountainous areas: a case study from the south Ecuadorian Andes. Journal of Hydrology 329: 413-421.
26. Buytaert W, Deckers J, Wyseure G. 2006c. Description and classification of highly weathered Andosols in the south Ecuadorian páramo. Geomorphology 73: 207-221.
27. Buytaert W, De Bièvre B, Wyseure G, Deckers J. 2004. The use of the linear reservoir concept to quantify the impact of land use changes on the hydrology of catchments in the Ecuadorian Andes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 8: 108-114.
28. Buytaert W, De Bièvre B, Wyseure G, Deckers J. 2005. The effect of land use changes on the hydrological behaviour of Histic Andosols in south Ecuador. Hydrological Processes 19: 3985-3997.
29. Buytaert W, Iñiguez V, De Bièvre B. 2007. The effects of afforestation and cultivation on water yield in the andean páramo. Forest Ecology and Management 251: 22-30.
30. Célleri R. 2007. Rainfall variability and rainfall-runoff dynamics in the paute river basin-southern ecuadorian andes. PhD thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
31. Célleri R, Willems P, Buytaert W, Feyen J. 2007. Space-time variability of rainfall in the Paute river basin of South Ecuador. Hydrological Processes 21: 3316-3327.
32. Clark MP, Kavetski D. 2010. Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. fidelity and efficiency of time stepping schemes. Water Resources Research 46: W10510.
33. Clark MP, Rupp DE, Woods RA, van Meerveld HJT, Peters NE, Freer JE. 2009. Consistency between hydrological models and field observations: linking processes at the hillslope scale to hydrological responses at the watershed scale. Hydrological Processes 23: 311-319.
34. Clark MP, Slater AG, Rupp DE, Woods RA, Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Wagener T, Hay LE. 2008. Framework for understanding structural errors (fuse): a modular framework to diagnose differences between hydrological models. Water Resources Research 44: W00B02.
35. Coltorti M, Ollier CD. 2000. Geomorphic and tectonic evolution of the Ecuadorian Andes. Geomorphology 32: 1-19.
36. FAO/ISRIC/ISSS. 1998. World Reference Base for Soil Resources. No. 84 in World Soil Resources Reports. FAO, Rome.
37. Farley KA, Kelly EF, Hofstede RGM. 2004. Soil organic carbon and water retention after conversion of grasslands to pine plantations in the Ecuadorian Andes. Ecosystems 7: 729-739.
38. Fenicia F, Savenije HHG, Matgen P, Pfister L. 2008. Understanding catchment behavior through stepwise model concept improvement. Water Resources Research 44: W01402.
39. Freer J, McDonnell JJ, Beven KJ, Peters NE, Burns DA, Hooper RP, Aulenbach B, Kendall C. 2002. The role of bedrock topography on subsurface storm flow. Water Resources Research 38: 1-16.
40. Götzinger J, Bárdossy A. 2008. Generic error model for calibration and uncertainty estimation of hydrological models. Water Resources Research 44: W00B07.
41. Gupta HV, Kling H, Yilmaz KK, Martinez GF. 2009. Decomposition of the mean squared error and nse performance criteria: implications for improving hydrological modelling. Journal of Hydrology 377: 80-91.
42. Gupta HV, Sorooshian S, Yapo PO. 1998. Towards improved calibration of hydrological models: multiple and noncommensurable measures of information. Water Resources Research 34: 751-763.
43. Harden CP. 2006. Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the northern and central andes. Geomorphology 79: 249-263.
44. Hofstede RGM, Mondragon MX, Rocha CM. 1995. Biomass of grazed, burned, and undistributed páramo grasslands, Colombia. 1. aboveground vegetation. Arctic and Alpine Research 27: 1-12.
45. Hofstede R, Segarra P, Mena PV. 2003. Los Páramos del Mundo. Global Peatland Initiative/NC-IUCN/EcoCiencia, Quito.
46. Holden J, Burt TP. 2002. Laboratory experiments on drought and runoff in blanket peat. European Journal of Soil Science 53: 675-689.
47. Holden J, Evans MG, Burt TP, Horton M. 2006. Impact of land drainage on peatland hydrology. Journal of Environmental Quality 35: 1764-1778.
48. Hungerbühler D, Steinmann M, Winkler W, Seward D, Eguez A, Peterson DE, Helg U, Hammer C. 2002. Neogene stratigraphy and Andean geodynamics of southern Ecuador. Earth-Science Reviews 57: 75-124.
49. Ibbitt RP, Henderson RD, Copeland J, Watt DS. 2001. Simulating mountain runoff with meso-scale weather model rainfall estimates: a New Zealand experience. Journal of Hydrology 239: 19-32.
50. Iorgulescu I, Musy A. 1997. Generalisation of topmodel for a power law transmissivity profile. Hydrological Processes 11: 1353-1355.
51. IUCN. 2002. High andean wetlands. Tech. rep., IUCN, Gland, Switzerland.
52. Jansky L, Ives JD, Furuyashiki K, Watanabe T. 2002. Global mountain research for sustainable development. Global Environmental Change 12: 231-239.
53. Kappelle M, Horn SP, Chaverri A. 2005. Páramos de Costa Rica. INBio: Herredia.
54. Kirchner JW. 2006. Getting the right answers for the right reasons: linking measurements, analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology. Water Resources Research 42: W03S04.
55. Klemeš V. 1986. Operational testing of hydrological simulation models. Hydrological Sciences Journal 31: 13-24.
56. Lamb R, Beven KJ, Myrabø S. 1997. Discharge and water table predictions using a generalised topmodel formulation. Hydrological Processes 11: 1145-1167.
57. Lamb R, Beven KJ, Myrabø S. 1998. Use of spatially distributed water table observations to constrain uncertainty in a rainfall-runoff model. Advances in Water Resources 22: 305-317.
58. Lane SN, Brookes CJ, Kirkby MJ, Holden J. 2004. A network-index-based version of topmodel for use with high-resultion digital topographic data. Hydrological Processes 18: 191-2001.
59. Lane SN, Reaney SM, Heathwaite AL. 2009. Representation of landscape hydrological connectivity using a topographically driven surface flow index. Water Resources Research 45: W08423.
60. Liniger HP, Weingartner R, Grosjean M. 1998. Mountains of the world: water towers for the 21st century. Mountain Agenda, University of Berne: Switzerland.
61. Liu Y, Gupta HV. 2007. Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: toward an integrated data assimilation framework. Water Resources Research 43: W07401.
62. Luteyn JL. 1999. Páramos: A Checklist of Plant Diversity, Geographical Distribution, and Botanical Literature. The New York Botanical Garden Press: New York.
63. Luteyn JL, Cleef AM, Rangel O. 1992. Plant diversity in páramo: towards a checklist of páramoplants and generic flora. In Páramo: An Andean Ecosystem Under Human Influence, Balslev H, Luteyn JL (eds). Academic Press: London; 71-84.
64. McCuen RH, Knight Z, Cutter AG. 2006. Evaluation of the nash-sutcliffe efficiency index. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 11: 597-902.
65. McMillan H, Clark M. 2009. Rainfall-runoff model calibration using informal likelihood measures within a markov chain monte carlo sampling scheme. Water Resources Research 45: W04418.
66. Mena P, Medina G. 2001. Los páramos en el Ecuador. In Los páramos del Ecuador, Mena P, Medina G, Hofstede R (eds). Proyecto Páramo: Quito; 1-24.
67. Messerli B, Viviroli D, Weingartner R. 2004. Mountains of the world: vulnerable water towers for the 21st century. Ambio Special Report 13: 29-34.
68. Mitasova H, Mitas L. 1993. Interpolation by regularized spline with tension: I. theory and implementation. Mathematical Geology 25:6 641-655.
69. Piñol J, Beven KJ, Freer J. 1997. Modelling the hydrological response of mediterranean catchments, Prades, Catalonia-the use of distributed models as aids to hypothesis formulation. Hydrological Processes 11: 1287-1306.
70. Podwojewski P, Poulenard J, Zambrana T, Hofstede R. 2002. Overgrazing effects on vegetation cover and properties of volcanic ash soil in the páramo of Llangahua and La Esperanza (Tungurahua, Ecuador). Soil Use and Management 18: 45-55.
71. Poulenard J, Podwojewski P, Janeau JL, Collinet J. 2001. Runoff and soil erosion under rainfall simulation of andisols from the Ecuadorian páramo: effect of tillage and burning. Catena 45: 185-207.
72. Quinn P, Beven KJ, Chevallier P, Planchon O. 1991. The prediction of hill slope flow paths for distributed hydrological modelling using digital terrain models. Hydrological Processes 5: 59-79.
73. Sánchez-Vega I, Dillon M. 2006. Jalcas. In Botánica Económica de los Andes Centrales, Moraes M, Øllgaard RB, Kvist LP, Borchsenius F, Balslev H (eds). Universidad Mayor de San Andrés: La Paz; 77-90.
74. Savenije HHG. 2008. The art of hydrology. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 5: 3157-3168.
75. Schaefli B, Gupta HV. 2007. Do nash values have value? Hydrological Processes 21: 2075-2080.
76. Sivapalan M. 2009. The secret to doing better hydrological science: change the question! Hydrological Processes 23: 1391-1396.
77. Sklenář P, Balslev H. 2005. Superparamo plant species diversity and phytogeography in ecuador. Flora 200: 416-433.
78. Sklenář P, Bendix J, Balslev H. 2008. Cloud frequency correlates to plant species composition in the high andes of ecuador. Basic and Applied Ecology DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2007.09.007.
79. Smiles DE. 2000. Hydrology of swelling soils: a review. Australian Journal of Soil Research 38: 501-521.
80. Stedinger JR, Vogel RM, Lee SU, Batchelder R. 2008. Appraisal of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (glue) method. Water Resources Research 44: W00B06.
81. Timbe E. 2004. Disgregacion temporal de datos diarios de precipitacion en microcuencas de páramo. Master's thesis, Universidad de Cuenca.
82. Uchida T, Tromp-van Meerveld I, McDonnell JJ. 2005. The role of lateral pipe flow in hillslope runoff response: an intercomparison of non-linear hillslope response. Journal of Hydrology 311: 117-133.
83. Viviroli D, Dürr HH, Messerli B, Meybeck M, Weingartner R. 2007. Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: typology, mapping, and global significance. Water Resources Research 43: W07447.
84. Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Bastidas LA, Bouten W, Sorooshian S. 2003. Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models. Water Resources Research 39: 1214.
85. Vuille M, Bradley RS, Keimig F. 2000. Climate variability in the Andes of Ecuador and its relation to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate 13: 2520-2535.
86. Weigend M. 2004. Additional observations on the biogeography of the Amotape-Huancabamba zone in Northern Peru: defining the south-eastern limits. Revista Peruana de Biología 11: 127-134.