Could seals prevent cod recovery in the Baltic Sea?

PLoS ONE

Volumn 6, Issue 5, 2011, Pages

  MacKenzie, Brian R ^a,b   Eero, Margit ^a   Ojaveer, Henn ^c  

^a TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK   (Denmark)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TARTU   (Estonia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ATLANTIC COD; BALTIC SEA; BIOMASS PRODUCTION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPLOITATION; NONHUMAN; POPULATION ABUNDANCE; POPULATION RECOVERY; PREDATOR PREY INTERACTION; PROCESS MODEL; SALINITY; SEAL; ANIMAL; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; GADIFORMES; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; PHOCA; PHYSIOLOGY; SEA; THEORETICAL MODEL;

GADUS MORHUA; HALICHOERUS GRYPUS;

ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; GADIFORMES; MODELS, THEORETICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; SEALS, EARLESS;

EID: 79955833880     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018998     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Rick TC, Erlandson JM, (2008) Human impact on ancient marine ecosystems: a global perspective. Berkeley and Los Angeles California University of California Press.
2. Lotze HK, Worm B, (2009) Historical baselines for large marine animals. Trends Ecol Evol 24: 254-262.
3. Murawski SA, (2010) Rebuilding depleted fish stocks: the good, the bad, and, mostly, the ugly. ICES J Mar Sci 67: 1830-1840.
4. Caddy JF, Agnew DJ, (2004) An overview of recent global experience with recovery plans for depleted marine resources and suggested guidelines for recovery planning. Rev Fish Biol Fisher 14: 43-112.
5. Worm B, Hilborn R, Baum JK, Branch TA, Collie JS, et al. (2009) Rebuilding global fisheries. Science 325: 578-585.
6. Anderson CNK, Hsieh CH, Sandin SA, Hewitt R, Hollowed A, et al. (2008) Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature 452: 835-839.
7. Swain DP, Chouinard GA, (2008) Predicted extirpation of the dominant demersal fish in a large marine ecosystem: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65: 2315-2319.
8. Lindegren M, Möllmann C, Nielsen A, Brander K, MacKenzie BR, et al. (2010) Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod. Proc R Soc Lond B 277: 2121-2130.
9. Thrush SF, Dayton PK, (2010) What can ecology contribute to ecosystem-based management? Ann Rev Mar Sci 2: 419-441.
10. ICES (2010) ICES Advice-Baltic Sea ecoregion, cod in Subdivisions 25-32. ICES Advice Book 8.
11. ICES (2006) Report of the Workshop on the Decline and Recovery of Cod Stocks throughout the North Atlantic, including trophodynamic effects. ICES CM 2006/OCC:12. ICES CM 2006/OCC:12.
12. EC (2007) Council regulation (EC) no. 1098/2007 establishing a multi-annual plan for the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea and the fisheries exploiting those stocks, amending Regulation (ECC) no. 2847/93 and repealing Regulation (EC) no. 779/97.
13. ICES (2007) Report of the workshop on the integration of environmental information into fisheries management strategies and advice (WKEFA). ICES CM 2007/ACFM: 25: 1-182.
14. ICES (2007) Report of the workshop on limit and target reference points (Gdynia, Poland, Jan. 29-Feb. 2, 2007). ICES CM 2007/ACFM: 05: 1-93.
15. Hinrichsen HH, Kraus G, Bottcher U, Koster F, (2009) Identifying eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds using hydrodynamic modelling: knowledge for the design of Marine Protected Areas. ICES J Mar Sci 66: 101-108.
16. Köster FW, Vinther M, MacKenzie BR, Eero M, Plikshs M, (2009) Environmental effects on recruitment and implications for biological reference points of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). J Northw Atl Fish Sci 41: 205-220.
17. Bastardie F, Vinther M, Nielsen JR, Ulrich C, Paulsen MS, (2010) Stock-based vs. fleet-based evaluation of the multi-annual management plan for the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea. Fish Res 101: 188-202.
18. ICES (2010) Report of the ICES/HELCOM working group on integrated assessments of the Baltic Sea (WGIAB). ICES CM 2010/SSGRSP: 02: 1-98.
19. Helcom (2007) HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. 102 pp.Helsinki: Helsinki Commission for the Protection of the Baltic Marine Environment (http://www.helcom.fi). Accessed 2011 March 11.
20. ICES (2010) Report of the workshop on implementing the ICES Fmsy framework. ICES CM 2010/ACOM: 54: 1-79.
21. Lundström K, Hjerne O, Lynnerød S-G, Karlsson O, (2010) Understanding the diet composition of marine mammals: grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the Baltic Sea. ICES J Mar Sci (in press) 67.
22. Österblom H, Hansson S, Larsson U, Hjerne O, Wulff F, et al. (2007) Human-induced trophic cascades and ecological regime shifts in the Baltic Sea. Ecosys doi:10.1007/s10021-007-9069-0.
23. Eero M, MacKenzie BR, Köster FW, Gislason H, (2010) Multi-decadal responses of a cod (Gadus morhua) population to human-induced trophic changes, exploitation and climate variability. Ecol Appl (accepted).
24. Bundy A, Heymans JJ, Morissette L, Savenkoff C, (2009) Seals, cod and forage fish: A comparative exploration of variations in the theme of stock collapse and ecosystem change in four Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Progr Oceanogr 81: 188-206.
25. Chassot E, Duplisea D, Hammill M, Caskenette A, Bousquet N, et al. (2009) Role of predation by harp seals Pagophilus groenlandicus in the collapse and non-recovery of northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod Gadus morhua. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 379: 279-297.
26. Baum JK, Worm B, (2009) Cascading top-down effects of changing ocean predator abundances. J Anim Ecol 78: 699-714.
27. Hansson S, Hjerne O, Harvey C, Kitchell JF, Cox SP, et al. (2007) Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes-ecosystem model analyses. Ambio 36: 265-271.
28. BACC (2007) Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea Basin-the BACC Project (International conference, Gothenberg, Sweden, May 22-23, 2006). (Report available at http://www.gkss.de/baltex/BACC/Climate_change_report_07.pdfaccessed 2011 March 11. Gestacht, Germany: IKSS. 16 p.
29. Ojaveer H, Jaanus A, MacKenzie BR, Martin G, Olenin S, et al. (2010) Status of biodiversity in the Baltic Sea. PLoS One 5 (e12467): 1-19.
30. MacKenzie BR, Gislason H, Möllmann C, Köster FW, (2007) Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries. Glob Chan Biol 13: 1348-1367 (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01369.x).
31. Heikinheimo O, (2008) Average salinity as an index for environmental forcing on cod recruitment in the Baltic Sea. Boreal Env Res 13: 457-464.
32. EC (2008) Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive). OJEC L 164 Brussels: European Commission: 40. pp.
33. MacKenzie BR, Köster FW, (2004) Fish production and climate: sprat in the Baltic Sea. Ecol 85: 784-794.
34. ICES (2005) Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group.ICES CM 2005/ACFM:19.
35. MacKenzie BR, Mosegaard H, Rosenberg AA, (2009) Impending collapse of bluefin tuna in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean. Cons Lett 2: 25-34 (doi:10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00039.x).
36. Hilborn R, Walters C, (1992) Quantitative Fisheries Stock Assessment: Choice, Dynamics and Uncertainty. New York Chapman and Hall.
37. ICES (2009) Report of the ICES Baltic fisheries assessment working group. ICES CM:.
38. Eilola K, Gustafson BG, Hordoir R, Höglund A, Kuznetsov I, et al. (2010) Quality assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models in hind cast simulations 1970-2005.Report 101/2010:38 pp.Norrköping, Sweden: SMHI.
39. Köster FW, Möllmann C, Hinrichsen H-H, Tomkiewicz J, Wieland K, et al. (2005) Baltic cod recruitment-the impact of climate variability on key processes. ICES J Mar Sci 62: 1408-1425.
40. ICES (2008) Report of the working group on marine mammal ecology (WGMME). ICES CM 2008/ACOM: 44.
41. ICES (2008) Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group.ICES CM 2008/ACOM: 06: 220-297.
42. Harding KC, Härkönen TJ, (1999) Development in the Baltic grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and ringed seal (Phoca hispida) populations during the 20th century. Ambio 28: 619-627.
43. Elmgren R, (1989) Man's impact on the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea: energy flows today and at the turn of the century. Ambio 18: 326-332.
44. Lundström K, Hjerne O, Alexandersson K, Karlsson O, (2007) Estimation of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) diet composition in the Baltic Sea. NAMMCO Sci Pub 6: 177-196.
45. Söderberg S, (1975) Feeding habits and commercial damage of seals in the Baltic. Proceedings of the Symposium on the seal in the Baltic June 4-6, 1974, Lidingö, Sweden PM 591: 78 pp. Stockholm: Swedish Environment Protection Agency.
46. Hammond PS, Grellier K, (2006) Grey seal diet composition and prey consumption in the North Sea. Final report to Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on project MF0319.
47. ICES (2010) Report of the Baltic fisheries assessment working group (WGBFAS). ICES CM 2010/ACOM: 10: 1-633.
48. Chouinard GA, Swain DP, Hammill MO, Poirier GA, (2005) Covariation between grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) abundance and natural mortality of cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 62: 1991-2000.
49. Bastardie F, Vinther M, Nielsen JR, Ulrich C, Paulsen MS, (2010) Stock-based vs. fleet-based evaluation of the multi-annual management plan for the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea. Fish Res 101: 188-202.
50. Bakun A, (2006) Wasp-waist populations and marine ecosystem dynamics: Navigating the "predator pit" topographies. Progr Oceanogr 68: 271-288.
51. Kempf A, Floeter J, Temming A, (2008) Predator-prey overlap induced Holling Type III functional response in the North Sea fish assemblage. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 367: 295-308.
52. Eero M, Köster FW, MacKenzie BR, (2008) Reconstructing historical stock development of the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) before the beginning of intensive exploitation. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65: 2728-2741.
53. MacKenzie BR, Alheit J, Conley DJ, Holm P, Kinze CC, (2002) Ecological hypotheses for a historical reconstruction of upper trophic level biomass in the Baltic Sea and Skagerrak. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 59: 173-190.
54. MacKenzie BR, Bager M, Ojaveer H, Awebro K, Heino U, et al. (2007) Multi-decadal scale variability in the eastern Baltic cod fishery 1550-1860: evidence and causes. Fish Res 87: 106-119 (doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2007.07.003).
55. Holling CS, (1959) The components of predation as revealed by a study of small mammal predation of the European pine sawfly. Can Entomol 91: 293-320.
56. Kramer AM, Drake JM, (2010) Experimental demonstration of population extinction due to a predator-driven Allee effect. J Anim Ecol 79: 633-639.
57. Smout S, Asseburg C, Matthiopoulos J, Fernandez C, Redpath S, et al. (2010) The functional response of a generalist predator. PLoS One 5: 1-7 (e10761).
58. Rindorf A, Gislason H, (2005) Functional and aggregative response of North Sea whiting. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 324: 1-19.
59. Fulton EA, (2010) Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models. J Mar Sys 81: 171-183.
60. Sparholt H, (1994) Fish species interactions in the Baltic Sea. Dana 10: 131-162.
61. Uzars D, Plikshs M, (2000) Cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.) cannibalism in the Central Baltic: interannual variability and influence of recruitment abundance and distribution. ICES J Mar Sci 57: 324-329.
62. ICES (2007) Report of the Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Methods. ICES CM 2007/RMC: 08.
63. Sparholt H, (1996) Causal correlation between recruitment and spawning stock size of central Baltic cod? ICES J Mar Sci 53: 771-779.
64. Köster FW, Möllmann C, (2000) Trophodynamic control by clupeid predators on recruitment success in Baltic cod? ICES J Mar Sci 57: 310-323.
65. Casini M, Hjelm J, Molinero JC, Lövgren J, Cardinale M, et al. (2009) Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 197-202.
66. Lindstrøm U, Smout S, Howell D, Bogstad B, (2009) Modelling multi-species interactions in the Barents Sea ecosystem with special emphasis on minke whales and their interactions with cod, herring and capelin. Deep-Sea ResII-Top Stud Oceanogr 56: 2068-2079.
67. Feistel R, Nausch G, Wasmund N, (2008) State and evolution of the Baltic Sea, 1952-2005. John Riley & Sons, Inc.
68. Neumann T, (2010) Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study. J Mar Sys 81: 213-224.
69. Österblom H, Gårdmark A, Bergstrom L, Muller-Karulis B, Folke C, et al. (2010) Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological-and governance systems facilitate the transition? Mar Pol 34: 1290-1299.
70. ICES (2009) Chair's report of the workshop on the form of advice (WKFORM). ICES CM 2009/ACOM: 53: 1-11.
71. Cardoso AC, Cochrane SKJ, Doerner H, Ferreira JG, Galgani F, et al. (2010) Scientific support to the European Commission on the Marine Strategy Framework Directive: management group report. In: Piha H, editors. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports 11 Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities (available at http://www.ices.dk/projects/MSFD/Management%20Group%20Report_Final_vII.pdf. Accessed 2011 March.
72. EC (2009) Green paper: Reform of the Common Fisheries Policy.COM(2009) 163 (final)) 27 pp. Brussels: Commission of the European Communities.