The epidemiological dynamics of infectious trachoma may facilitate elimination

Epidemics

Volumn 3, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 119-124

  Lietman, Thomas M ^a,b   Gebre, Teshome ^c   Ayele, Berhan ^c   Ray, Kathryn J ^a   Maher, M Cyrus ^a   See, Craig W ^a   Emerson, Paul M ^c   Porco, Travis C ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c CARTER CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Azithromycin; Backward bifurcation; Chlamydia; Eradication; Mathematical model; Quasi stationary distribution; Stochastic model

Indexed keywords

AZITHROMYCIN;

ANTIBIOTIC THERAPY; ARTICLE; CHLAMYDIA TRACHOMATIS; DATA ANALYSIS; DYNAMICS; ENDEMIC DISEASE; ERADICATION THERAPY; HUMAN; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL (TOPIC); STOCHASTIC MODEL; TRACHOMA;

ANTI-BACTERIAL AGENTS; CHLAMYDIA TRACHOMATIS; ETHIOPIA; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; TRACHOMA;

EID: 79955757313     PISSN: 17554365     EISSN: 18780067     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.004     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Alexander M.E., Moghadas S.M. Periodicity in an epidemic model with a generalized non-linear incidence. Mathematical Biosciences 2004, 189(1):75-96. May.
2. Bailey R.L., Arullendran P., Whittle H.C., Mabey D.C. Randomised controlled trial of single-dose azithromycin in treatment of trachoma. Lancet 1993, 342(8869):453-456.
3. Biebesheimer J.B., House J., Hong K.C., et al. Complete local elimination of infectious trachoma from severely affected communities after six biannual mass azithromycin distributions. Ophthalmology 2009, 116(11):2047-2050.
4. Blake I.M., Burton M.J., Bailey R.L., et al. Estimating household and community transmission of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2009, 3(3):e401.
5. Brauer F., van den Driessche P., Wu J. Mathematical Epidemiology 2008, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
6. Burnham K.P., Anderson D.R. Model Selection and Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach 1998, Springer, New York.
7. Chidambaram J.D., Bird M., Schiedler V., et al. Trachoma decline and widespread use of antimicrobial drugs. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2004, 10(11):1895-1899. Nov.
8. Chidambaram J.D., Alemayehu W., Melese M., et al. Effect of a single mass antibiotic distribution on the prevalence of infectious trachoma. JAMA 2006, 295(10):1142-1146. Mar 8.
9. Cobb L. Stochastic catastrophe models and multimodal distribution. Behavioral Science 1978, 23:360-374.
10. Dolin P.J., Faal H., Johnson G.J., et al. Reduction of trachoma in a sub-Saharan village in absence of a disease control programme. Lancet 1997, 349(9064):1511-1512.
11. Dushoff J., Huang W., Castillo-Chavez C. Backwards bifurcations and catastrophe in simple models of fatal diseases. Journal of Mathematical Biology 1998, 36(3):227-248.
12. Ellner S.P., Bailey B.A., Bobashev G.V., Gallant A.R., Grenfell B.T., Nychka D.W. Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: combining mechanistic and statistical approaches to population modeling. The American Naturalist 1998, 151(5):425-440. May.
13. Emerson P.M., Cairncross S., Bailey R.L., Mabey D.C. Review of the evidence base for the 'F' and 'E' components of the SAFE strategy for trachoma control. Tropical Medicine & International Health 2000, 5(8):515-527.
14. Finkenstädt B., Grenfell B. Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 1998, 265(1392):211-220. Feb 7.
15. Finkenstädt B.F., Bjornstad O.N., Grenfell B.T. A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics (Oxford, England) 2002, 3(4):493-510. Dec.
16. Gambhir M., Basanez M.G., Burton M.J., et al. The development of an age-structured model for trachoma transmission dynamics, pathogenesis and control. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2009, 3(6):e462.
17. Gaynor B.D., Miao Y., Cevallos V., et al. Eliminating trachoma in areas with limited disease. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2003, 9(5):596-598. May.
18. Grassly N.C., Ward M.E., Ferris S., Mabey D.C., Bailey R.L. The natural history of trachoma infection and disease in a Gambian cohort with frequent follow-up. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2008, 2(12):e341. Gaynor.
19. Harding-Esch E.M., Edwards T., Sillah A., et al. Active trachoma and ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection in two Gambian regions: on course for elimination by 2020?. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2009, 3(12):e573.
20. Hoechsmann A., Metcalfe N., Kanjaloti S., et al. Reduction of trachoma in the absence of antibiotic treatment: evidence from a population-based survey in Malawi. Ophthalmic Epidemiology 2001, 8(2-3):145-153.
21. House J.I., Ayele B., Porco T.C., et al. Assessment of herd protection against trachoma due to repeated mass antibiotic distributions: a cluster-randomised trial. Lancet 2009, 373(9669):1111-1118. Mar 28.
22. Jha H., Chaudary J., Bhatta R., et al. Disappearance of trachoma in Western Nepal. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2002, 35(6):765-768.
23. Koelle K., Pascual M. Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. The American Naturalist 2004, 163(6):901-913. Jun.
24. Lakew T., House J., Hong K.C., et al. Reduction and return of infectious trachoma in severely affected communities in Ethiopia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2009, 3(2):e376.
25. Lietman T., Porco T., Dawson C., Blower S. Global elimination of trachoma: how frequently should we administer mass chemotherapy?. Nature Medicine 1999, 5(5):572-576.
26. Liu W.M., Hethcote H.W., Levin S.A. Dynamical behavior of epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates. Journal of Mathematical Biology 1987, 25(4):359-380.
27. Melese M., Alemayehu W., Lakew T., et al. Comparison of annual and biannual mass antibiotic administration for elimination of infectious trachoma. JAMA 2008, 299(7):778-784. Feb 20.
28. Moghadas S.M., Alexander M.E. Bifurcations of an epidemic model with non-linear incidence and infection-dependent removal rate. Mathematical Medicine and Biology 2006, 23(3):231-254. Sep.
29. Nasell I. On the quasi-stationary distribution of the stochastic logistic epidemic. Mathematical Biosciences 1999, 156(1-2):21-40. Mar 1.
30. O'Neill P.D. A tutorial introduction to Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Mathematical Biosciences 2002, 180:103-114. Nov-Dec.
31. Ray K.J., Porco T.C., Hong K.C., et al. A rationale for continuing mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma. BMC Infectious Diseases 2007, 7(1):91. Aug 7.
32. Ray K.J., Lietman T.M., Porco T.C., et al. When can antibiotic treatments for trachoma be discontinued? Graduating communities in three African countries. PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2009, 3(6):e458.
33. Resnikoff S., Pascolini D., Etya'ale D., et al. Global data on visual impairment in the year 2002. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2004, 82(11):844-851. Nov.
34. Schachter J., West S.K., Mabey D., et al. Azithromycin in control of trachoma. Lancet 1999, 354(9179):630-635.
35. Solomon A.W., Holland M.J., Alexander N.D., et al. Mass treatment with single-dose azithromycin for trachoma. The New England Journal of Medicine 2004, 351(19):1962-1971. Nov 4.
36. van den Driessche P., Watmough J. A simple SIS epidemic model with a backward bifurcation. Journal of Mathematical Biology 2000, 40(6):525-540.
37. West S.K., Munoz B., Mkocha H., et al. Infection with Chlamydia trachomatis after mass treatment of a trachoma hyperendemic community in Tanzania: a longitudinal study. Lancet 2005, 366(9493):1296-1300. Oct 8.
38. Zhang J., Lietman T., Olinger L., Miao Y., Stephens R.S. Genetic diversity of Chlamydia trachomatis and the prevalence of trachoma. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 2004, 23(3):217-220. Mar.