Drought and persistent wet spells over South America based on observations and the U.S. CLIVAR drought experiments

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 1801-1820

  Mo, Kingtse C ^a   Berbery, Ernesto H ^b  

^a CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^b University of Maryland   (United States)

Author keywords

Anomalies; Drought; ENSO; Sea surface temperature; South America

Indexed keywords

ANOMALIES; ARGENTINA; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; COLOMBIA; COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL; ECUADOR; ENSO; EXTREME EVENTS; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; LOCAL IMPACTS; MODEL SIMULATION; NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL; REMOTE AREAS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; SOUTH AMERICA; SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA; SOUTHERN BRAZIL; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS; URUGUAY; VENEZUELA; WEST COAST;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DROUGHT; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; SURFACE PROPERTIES;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME EVENT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TELECONNECTION; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); SOUTH AMERICA;

EID: 79955165329     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3874.1     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Aceituno, P. F., 1988: On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: Surface climate. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 505-524.
2. Bacmeister, J., P. J. Pegion, S. D. Schubert, and M. J. Suarez, 2000: Atlas of sesonal means simulated by the NSIPP 1 atmospheric GCM. NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, Vol. 17, 191 pp.
3. Barros, V. R., M. E. Castañeda, and M. E. Doyle, 2000: Recent precipitation trends in Southern South America east of the Andes: An indication of climatic variability. Southern Hemisphere Paleo- and Neoclimates, P. P. Smolka and W.Volkheimer, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 187-206.
4. Barros, V. R.,M. E.Doyle, and I. A. Camilloni, 2008: Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: Relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 93, 19-33.
5. Berbery, E. H., and C. S. Vera, 1996: Characteristics of the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track with filtered and unfiltered data. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 468-481.
6. Berbery, E. H., and E. A. Collini, 2000: Springtime precipitation and water vapor flux over southeastern South America. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1328-1346.
7. Berbery, E. H., and V. R. Barros, 2002: The hydrological cycle of the La Plata basin in South America. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 630-645.
8. Berri, G. J., and B. J. Inzunza, 1993: The effect of the low-level jet on the poleward water vapor transport in the central region of South America. Atmos. Environ., 27A, 335-341.
9. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the Equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172.
10. Campana, K., and P. Caplan, 2005: Technical procedure bulletin for T382 Global Forecast System. NCEP/EMC, 6 pp. [Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/Documentation/TPBoct05/T382.TPB.FINAL.html.]
11. Campetella, C. M., and C. S. Vera, 2002: The influence of the Andes Mountains on the South American low-level flow. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1826, doi:10.1029/2002GL015451.
12. Cazes-Boezio, G., A. W. Robertson, and C. R. Mechoso, 2003: Seasonal dependence of ENSO teleconnections over South America and relationships with precipitation in Uruguay. J. Climate, 16, 1159-1176.
13. Chang, E. K. M., 1993: Downstream development of baroclinic waves as inferred from regression analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2038-2053.
14. Chang, P., R. Saravanan, L. Ji, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: The effect of local sea surface temperatures on atmospheric circulation over the tropical Atlantic sector. J. Climate, 13, 2195-2216.
15. Chen, M., P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, and P. A. Arkin, 2002: Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 249-266.
16. Coelho, C. A., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Skill of coupled model seasonal forecasts:A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecast. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 426, 16 pp.
17. Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, 1998: Global variations in droughts and wet spells 1900-1995. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3367-2962.
18. Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Quin, 2004: A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1987-2002: Relationships with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 1117-1130.
19. Delworth, T., and Coauthors, 2006: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19, 643-674.
20. Diaz, A. F., C. D. Studzinski, and C. R. Mechoso, 1998: Relationships between precipitation anomalies in Uruguay and Southern Brazil and sea surface temperature in the Pacific and in the Atlantic. J. Climate, 11, 251-271.
21. Drumond, A. R. M., and T. Ambrizzi, 2006: Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system. Adv. Geosci., 6, 167-171.
22. Garcia, S. R., and M. T. Kayano, 2008: Climatological aspects of Hadley, Walker and monsoon circulations in two phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 91, 117-127.
23. Genta, J. L., G. Perez-Iribarren, and C. R. Mechoso, 1998:Arecent increasing trend in the streamflow of rivers in Southeastern South America. J. Climate, 11, 2858-2862.
24. Grimm, A. M., 2003: The El Niño impact on the summer monsoon in Brazil: Regional processes versus remote influences. J. Climate, 16, 261-280.
25. Grimm, A. M., 2011: Interannual climate variability in South America; Impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events and possible effects of climate change. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., in press, doi:10.1007/s00477-010-0420-1.
26. Grimm, A. M., and R. G. Tedeschi, 2009: ENSO and extreme rainfall events in South America. J. Climate, 22, 1589-1609.
27. Grimm, A. M., E. D. de Freitas, and J. Gomes, 1998: Precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J. Climate, 11, 2863-2880.
28. Grimm, A. M., V. R. Barros, and M. E. Doyle, 2000: Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J. Climate, 13, 35-58.
29. Grimm, A. M., J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, 2007: Connection between spring conditions and peak summer monsoon rainfall in South America: Role of soil moisture, surface temperature, and topography in Eastern Brazil. J. Climate, 20, 5929-5945.
30. Hastenrath, S., and L. Greischar, 1993: Circulation mechanisms related to northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 5093-5102.
31. Hayes, M. J., M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite, and O. V. Vanyarkho, 1999: Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 429-438.
32. Haylock, M. R., and Coauthors, 2006: Trend in total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links to sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 19, 1490-1512.
33. Hoskins,B.J.,H.H.Hsu, I.N. James,M.Masutani,P.D.Sardeshmukh, and G. H. White, 1989: Diagnostics of the global atmospheric circulation based onECMWFanalyses 1979-1989.WCRP-27, WMO/TD 326, 217 pp.
34. Julian, P. R., and R. M. Chervin, 1978: A study of the Southern Oscillation and Walker circulation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1433-1451.
35. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
36. Kayano, M. T., and R. V. Andreoli, 2007: Relations of South American summer rainfall interannual variations with the Pacific decadal oscillations. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 531-540.
37. Kayano, M. T., C. P. Oliveira, and R. V. Andreoli, 2009: Interannual relations between South American rainfall and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies before and after 1976. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1439-1448.
38. Krepper, C. M., and G. V. Zucarelli, 2009: Climatology of water excesses and shortages in the La Plata Basin. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 102, 13-27.
39. Liebmann, B., and Coauthors, 2004: An observed trend in central South American precipitation. J. Climate, 17, 4357-4367.
40. Marengo, J. A., and Coauthors, 2008: The drought of Amazonia in 2005. J. Climate, 21, 495-516.
41. McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1993: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 179-184.
42. McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1995: Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 233-236.
43. Mestas-Nuñez, A., and D. B. Enfield, 1999: Rotated global modes of non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability. J. Climate, 12, 2734-2746.
44. Mo, K. C., and E. M. Rasmusson, 1993: The 200-mb climatological vorticity budget during 1986-89 as revealed by NMC analyses. J. Climate, 6, 577-594.
45. Mo, K. C., and S. Hakkinen, 2001: Interannual variability of the tropical Atlantic and linkages to the Pacific. J. Climate, 14, 2740-2762.
46. Mo, K. C., and J. E. Schemm, 2008: Drought and persistent wet spells over the United States and Mexico. J. Climate, 21, 980-994.
47. Mo, K. C., J. E. Schemm, and S. H. Yoo, 2009: ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on drought over the United States. J. Climate, 22, 5962-5982.
48. Moura, A. D., and J. Shukla, 1981: On the dynamics of the droughts in Northeast Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 2653-2673.
49. Nicolini, M., and A. C. Saulo, 2006: Modeled Chaco low-level jets and related precipitation patterns during the 1997-1998 warm season. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 94, 129-143.
50. Nobre, P., and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate, 9, 2464-2479.
51. Oort, A. H., and J. J. Yienger, 1996: Observed interannual variability in the Hadley Circulation and its connection to ENSO. J. Climate, 9, 2751-2767.
52. Paegle, J. N., and K. C. Mo, 2002: Linkages between summer rainfall variability over South America and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 15, 1389-1407.
53. Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872.
54. Palmer, W. C., 1965: Meteorological drought. U.S. Weather Bureau Research Paper 45, 45 pp. [NOAA Library and Information Services Division, Washington, DC 20852.]
55. Pscheidt, I., and A. M. Grimm, 2009: Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdedacal variability. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1988-2011.
56. Re, M., and V. R. Barros, 2009: Extreme rainfalls in SE South America. Climate Dyn., 96, 119-136.
57. Robertson, A. W., J. D. Farrara, and C. R. Mechoso, 2003: Simulations of the atmospheric response to South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 16, 2540-2551.
58. Ronchail, J., G. Cochonneau, M. Moliner, J. Gayot, A. G. De Miranda Chaves, V. Guimaraes, and E. de Oliveira, 2002: Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon Basin and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1663-1686.
59. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino- Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
60. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 268-284.
61. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP climate forecast system. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
62. Saravanan, R., and P. Chang, 2000: Interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Nino-Southern oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 2177-2194.
63. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004: Causes of long-term drought in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 17, 485-503.
64. Schubert, S. D., and Coauthors, 2009: A U. S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272.
65. Silva, G. A. M., T. Ambrizzi, and J. A. Marengo, 2009: Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American low level jet east of the Andes according to the ENSO variability. Ann. Geophys., 27, 645-657.
66. Silva, V. B. S., and E. H. Berbery, 2006: Intense rainfall events affecting the La Plata Basin. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 769-787.
67. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, R. E. Livezey, and D. C. Stokes, 1996: Reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures using empirical orthogonal functions. J. Climate, 9, 1403-1420.
68. Solman, S. A., and C. G. Menendez, 2002: ENSO-related variability of the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track over the Eastern Pacific-Atlantic sector. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 2128-2140.
69. Svoboda, M., and Coauthors, 2002: The drought monitor. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1181-1190.
70. Taschetto, A. S., and I. Wainer, 2008: The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation. Ann. Geophys., 26, 3457-3476.
71. Trenberth, K. E., 1984: Some effects of finite sample size and persistence on meteorological statistics. Part II: Potential predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2369-2379.
72. Uvo, C. B., C. A. Repelli, S. E. Zebiak, and Y. Kushnir, 1998: The relationships between tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and Northeast Brazilmonthly precipitation. J. Climate, 11, 551-562.
73. Webster, P. J., 1983: Large-scale structure of the tropical atmosphere. Large-Scale Dynamical Processes in the Atmosphere, B. J. Hoskins and R. P. Pearce, Eds., Academic Press, 235-275.
74. Wilhite, D. A., 2000: Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions. Drought:AGlobal Assessment, D. A. Wilhite, Ed., Routledge, 3-18.
75. Yoon, J.-H., and N. Zeng, 2009: An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall. Climate Dyn., 34, 249-264.
76. Zeng, N., J. H. Yoon, J. A. Marengo, A. Subramaniam,A.Mariotti, and J. D. Neelin, 2008: Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought. Environ. Res. Lett., 3, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/1/014002.