A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 13, Issue 5, 2007, Pages 645-653

  Foden, Wendy ^a,b   Midgley, Guy F ^a,c   Hughes, Greg ^d   Bond, William J ^b   Thuiller, Wilfried ^a,e   Hoffman, M Timm ^b   Kaleme, Prince ^b   Underhill, Les G ^b   Rebelo, Anthony ^a   Hannah, Lee ^c  

^a SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY INSTITUTE   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^c Center for Applied Biodiversity Science   (United States)

^d ADAS BOXWORTH   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITÉ JOSEPH FOURIER   (France)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic modelling; Desertification; Extinction; Global warming fingerprints; Migration; Range shift

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DESERTIFICATION; EXTINCTION; GEOGRAPHICAL REGION; GLOBAL WARMING; HUMAN ACTIVITY; MONOCOTYLEDON; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION GROWTH;

ALOE; ALOE DICHOTOMA;

EID: 34547915573     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00391.x     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Abu-Asab, M., Peterson, P., Shetler, S. Orli, S. (2001) Earlier plant flowering in spring as a response to global warming in the Washington, DC, area. Biodiversity and Conservation, 10, 597 612.
2. Barkhuizen, B.P. (1978) Succulents of Southern Africa. Purnell, Cape Town, South Africa.
3. Cowling, R.M. Hilton-Taylor, C. (1999) Plant biogeography, endemism and diversity. The Karoo: ecological patterns and processes (ed. by W.R.J. Dean S.J. Milton pp. 42 56. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
4. Davis, M.B. Shaw, R.G. (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science, 292, 673 679.
5. Fitter, A.H. Fitter, R.S.R. (2002) Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science, 296, 1689 1691.
6. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C.A., Banks, H., Gregory, J.M., Johns, T.C., Mitchell, J.F.B. Wood, R.A. (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147 168.
7. Gordon, N.D., McMahon, T.A. Finlayson, B.L. (1992) Stream hydrology: an introduction for ecologists. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK.
8. Hersteinsson, P. Macdonald, D.W. (1992) Interspecific competition and the geographical distribution of red and arctic foxes Vulpes vulpes and Alopex lagopus. Oikos, 64, 505 515.
9. Hulme, M., Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M. Lister, D. (2001) African climate change: 1900-2100. Climate Research, 17, 145 168.
10. Iverson, L.R., Schwartz, M.W. Prasad, A.M. (2004) How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 209 219.
11. Jacobsen, H. (1960) A handbook of succulent plants. Blandford Press, London.
12. Jordan, P.W. Nobel, P.S. (1979) Infrequent establishment of seedlings of Agave deserti (Agavaceae) in the northwestern Sonoran Desert. American Journal of Botany, 66, 1079 1084.
13. 2 measurements. Nature, 382, 146 149.
14. McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. White, K.S. (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, New York.
15. McCullagh, P. Nelder, J.A. (1989) Generalized linear models. Chapman & Hall, London.
16. Menzel, A. Fabian, P. (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature, 397, 659.
17. Musil, C.F., Schmiedel, U. Midgley, G.F. (2005) Lethal impacts of elevated atmospheric temperature. New Phytologist, 165, 539 547.
18. Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., Da Fonseca, G.A.B. Kent, J. (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853 858.
19. Nakicenovic, N. Swart, R. (2000) Emissions scenarios: a special report of Woking Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
20. New, M., Lister, D., Hulme, M. Makin, I. (2000) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Research, 21, 1 25.
21. Parmesan, C., Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C., Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Descimon, H., Huntley, B., Kaila, L., Kullberg, J., Tammaru, T., Tennent, W.J., Thomas, J.A. Warren, M. (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature, 399, 579 583.
22. Parmesan, C. Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37 42.
23. Peterson, A.T., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Bartley, J., Sanchez-Cordero, V., Soberon, J., Buddemeier, R.H. Stockwell, D.R.B. (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature, 416, 626 629.
24. Pitelka, L.F. (1997) Plant migration and climate change. American Scientist, 85, 464 473.
25. Rohde, R.F. (1997) Looking into the past: interpretations of vegetation change in Western Namibia based on matched photography. Dinteria, 25, 221 249.
26. Rosseeuw, P.J. Yohai, V. (1984) Robust regression by means of S-estimates. Lecture Notes in Statistics, 26, 256 272.
27. Sala, O.E., Chapin, F.S. III, Armesto, J.J., Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., Huber-Sanwald, E., Huenneke, L.F., Jackson, R.B., Kinzig, A., Leemans, R., Lodge, D.M., Mooney, H.A., Oesterheld, M.I.N., Poff, N.L., Sykes, M.T., Walker, B.H., Walker, M. Wall, D.H. (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science, 287, 1770 1774.
28. Standards Petitions Working Group (2005) Guidelines for using the IUCN red list categories and criteria, Version 3.1. Prepared by the Standards and Petitions Working Group of the IUCN SSC Biodiversity Assessments Sub-Committee in April 2005.
29. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Townsend Peterson, A., Phillips, O.L. Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145 148.
30. Thornthwaite, C.W. (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographic Review, 38, 55 94.
31. Thuiller, W. (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology, 9, 1353 1362.
32. Thuiller, W. (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology, 10, 2020 2027.
33. Van Jaarsveld, A.S. Chown, S.L. (2001) Climate change and its impacts in South Africa. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 16, 13 14.
34. Vogel, J.C. (1974) The life span of the Kokerboom. Aloe, 12, 66 68.
35. Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J.C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Bairlein, F. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389 395.
36. Warren, M.S., Hill, J.K., Thomas, J.A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D.B., Telfer, M.G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S.G., Greatorex-Davies, J.N., Moss, D. Thomas, C.D. (2001) Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature, 414, 65 69.