A new extratropical tracer describing the role of the western Pacific in the onset of El Niño: Implications for ENSO understanding and forecasting

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 1425-1437

  Ballester, Joan ^a   Rodríguez Arias, Miquel À Ngel ^a   Rodó, Xavier ^b  

^a Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit Institut Català de Ciències del Clima IC3   (Spain)

^b INSTITUCIÓ CATALANA DE RECERCA I ESTUDIS AVANÇATS ICREA   (Spain)

Author keywords

El Nino; Empirical orthogonal functions; ENSO; Pacific Ocean; Sea surface temperature

Indexed keywords

EL NINO; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS; ENSO; PACIFIC OCEAN; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; FOURIER ANALYSIS; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; OCEANOGRAPHY; SURFACE PROPERTIES; TROPICS;

ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS;

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; CLIMATE FEEDBACK; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; TROPOSPHERE; WALKER CIRCULATION;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 79955008761     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3619.1     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Anderson, B. T., 2007: Intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the extratropics and its relation to the onset of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 20, 926-936.
2. Barnett, T. P., M. Latif, N. E. Graham, M. Flugel, S. Pazan, and W. White, 1993: ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. I: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566.
3. Battisti, D. S., and E. S. Sarachik, 1995: Understanding and predicting ENSO. Rev. Geophys., 33, 1367-1376.
4. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172.
5. Boulanger, J. P., and C. Menkes, 2001: The trident Pacific model. Part 2: Role of long equatorial wave reflection on sea surface temperature anomalies during the 1993-1998 TOPEX/POSEIDON period. Climate Dyn., 17, 175-186.
6. Boulanger, J. P., and Coauthors, 2001: Role of non-linear oceanic processes in the response to westerly wind events: New implications for the 1997 El Niño onset. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1603-1606.
7. Boulanger, J. P., S. Cravatte, and C. Menkes, 2003: Reflected and locally wind forced interannual Kelvin waves in the western Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3311, doi:10.1029/2002JC001760.
8. Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832.
9. Chan, J. C. L., and J. Xu, 2000: Physical mechanisms responsible for the transition from a warm to a cold state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 2056-2071.
10. Chang, R., Q. Y. Zhang, and R. F. Li, 2009: North Pacific premonitory sign of the ENSO event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03818, doi:10.1029/2008GL036597.
11. Changnon, S. A., 1999: Impacts of 1997/98 El Niño generated weather in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1819-1828.
12. Chen, D., and M. A. Cane, 2008: El Niño prediction and predictability. J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3625-3640.
13. Chen, D., and M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak, and D. Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-736.
14. Chen, Y. Q., D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E. S. Sarachik, 1997: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model using singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.
15. Clarke, A. J., 2008: An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Elsevier, 308 pp.
16. CPC, 1997: Special Climate Summary, 97/3. NWS, NOAA, 14 pp.
17. Deng, Z., Y. Tang, and X. Zhou, 2009: The retrospective prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation from 1881 to 2000 by a hybrid coupled model. I: Sea surface temperature assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter. Climate Dyn., 32, 397-413.
18. Dettinger, M. D., C. M. Strong, W. Weibel, M. Ghil, and P. Yiou, 1995: Software for singular spectrum analysis of noisy time series. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 76, 12-14.
19. Farrell, B. F., 1982: The initial growth of disturbances in baroclinic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1663-1686.
20. Garreaud, R. D., and D. S. Battisti, 1999: Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. J. Climate, 12, 2113-2123.
21. Ghil, M., and K. C. Mo, 1991: Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. Part II: Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 780-790.
22. Glantz, M. H., 2001: Currents of Change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society. Cambridge University Press, 252 pp.
23. Goswami, B. N., and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 3-22.
24. Graham, N. E., J. Michaelsen, and T. P. Barnett, 1987: An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. 2. Model results. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 14 271-14 289.
25. Jin, D., and B. P. Kirtman, 2009: Why the Southern Hemisphere ENSO responses lead ENSO. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D23101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012657.
26. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437.
27. Karoly, D. J., 1989: Southern Hemisphere circulation features associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 1239-1252.
28. Kidson, J. W., and J. A. Renwick, 2002: The Southern Hemisphere evolution of ENSO during 1981-99. J. Climate, 15, 847-863.
29. Kiladis, G. N., and H. F. Diaz, 1989: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 1069-1090.
30. Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu, and E. K. Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean global atmosphere system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 789-808.
31. Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP/NCAR 50 Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247.
32. Klein, S. A., B. J. Soden, and N. C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate, 12, 917-932.
33. Kug, J. S., Y. G. Ham, M. Kimoto, F. F. Jin, and I. S. Kang, 2010: New approach for optimal perturbation method in ensemble climate prediction with empirical singular vector. Climate Dyn., 35, 331-340.
34. Latif, M., T. P. Barnett, M. A. Cane, M. Flügel, N. E. Graham, H. Storch, J. S. Xu, and S. E. Zebiak, 1994: A review of ENSO prediction studies. Climate Dyn., 9, 167-179.
35. Latif, M., and Coauthors, 1998: A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 375-14 393.
36. Lau, K. M., P. J. Sheu, and I. S. Kang, 1994: Multiscale lowfrequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1169-1193.
37. Lau, N. C., and M. J. Nath, 2001: Impact of ENSO on SST variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic: Seasonal dependence and role of extratropical sea-air coupling. J. Climate, 14, 2846-2866.
38. Luo, J. J., S. Masson, S. Behera, S. Shingu, and T. Yamagata, 2005: Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J. Climate, 18, 4474-4497.
39. Lysne, J., P. Chang, and B. Giese, 1997: Impact of the extratropical Pacific on equatorial variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2589-2592.
40. McPhaden, M. J., and Coauthors, 1998: The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 169-14 240.
41. Mo, K. C., 2000: Relationships between low-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 3599-3610.
42. Mo, K. C., and R. W. Higgins, 1998: The Pacific-South American modes and tropical convection during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1581-1596.
43. Mo, K. C., and J. N. Paegle, 2001: The Pacific-South American modes and their downstream effects. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1211-1229.
44. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1999: Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 12, 1199-1220.
45. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 2001: The differences between the optimal perturbations of coupled models of ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 138-163.
46. Moron, V., and G. Plaut, 2003: The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation upon weather regimes over Europe and the North Atlantic during boreal winter. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 363.
47. Pascual, M., X. Rodó, S. P. Ellner, R. Colwell, and M. J. Bouma, 2000: Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science, 289, 1766-1769.
48. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
49. Perigaud, C. M., and C. Cassou, 2000: Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 389-392.
50. Pezzi, L. P., and I. F. A. Cavalcanti, 2001: The relative importance of ENSO and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies for seasonal precipitation over South America: A numerical study. Climate Dyn., 17, 205-212.
51. Philander, S. G., 1985: El Niño and La Niña. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2652-2662.
52. Philander, S. G., and A. Fedorov, 2003: Is El Niño sporadic or cyclic? Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 31, 579-594.
53. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
54. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global-and regionalscale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
55. Sterl, A., and W. Hazeleger, 2005: The relative roles of tropical and extratropical forcing on atmospheric variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18716, doi:10.1029/2005GL023757.
56. Tang, F. T., W. W. Hsieh, and B. Tang, 1997: Forecasting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature by neural network models. Climate Dyn., 13, 135-147.
57. Thompson, C. J., 1998: Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 537-557.
58. Thompson, C. J., and D. S. Battisti, 2001: A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis. J. Climate, 14, 445-466.
59. Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777.
60. Thompson, C. J., G. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N. C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski, 1998: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 291-14 324.
61. van Loon, H., and D. J. Shea, 1985: The Southern Oscillation. Part IV: The precursors south of 15°S to the extremes of the oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 2063-2074.
62. Vimont, D. J., D. S. Battisti, and A. C. Hirst, 2001: Footprinting: A seasonal connection between the tropics and midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3923-3926.
63. Vimont, D. J., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 2003: The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO. J. Climate, 16, 2668-2675.
64. von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 499 pp.
65. Wang, C., 2005: ENSO, Atlantic climate variability, and the Walker and Hadley circulations. The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future, H. F. Diaz and R. S. Bradley, Eds., Springer 173-202.
66. Wang, C., and P. C. Fiedler, 2006: ENSO variability and the eastern tropical Pacific: A review. Prog. Oceanogr., 69, 239-266.
67. Wang, C., and J. Picaut, 2004: Understanding ENSO physics, A review. Earth's Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction. Geophys. Monogr. Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 21-48.
68. Wang, C., R. H. Weisberg, and J. I. Virmani, 1999: Western Pacific interannual variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 5131-5149.
69. Weisberg, R. H., and C. Wang, 1997: A western Pacific oscillator paradigm for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 779-782.
70. White, W. B., and S. S. Chen, 2002: Thermodynamic mechanisms responsible for the tropospheric response to sst anomalies in the antarctic circumpolar wave. J. Climate, 15, 2577-2596.
71. White, W. B., and J. Annis, 2004: Influence of theAntarctic circumpolarwave on El Niño and its multidecadal changes from 1950 to 2001. J. Geophys. Res., 109, C06019, doi:10.1029/2002JC001666.
72. White, W. B., P. Gloersen, and I. Simmonds, 2004: Tropospheric response in the Antarctic circumpolar wave along the sea ice edge around Antarctica. J. Climate, 17, 2765-2779.
73. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1997: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2043-2056.
74. Xue, Y., A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 2000: ENSO prediction with Markov models: The impact of sea level. J. Climate, 13, 849-871.
75. Zavala-Garay, J., A. M. Moore, C. L. Perez, and R. Kleeman, 2003: The response of a coupled model of ENSO to observed estimates of stochastic forcing. J. Climate, 16, 2827-2842.
76. Zebiak, S. E., 1989: On the 30-60 day oscillation and the prediction of El Niño. J. Climate, 2, 1381-1387.
77. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.