Effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the Pyrenees

Climatic Change

Volumn 105, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 489-508

  López Moreno, Juan Ignacio ^a   Goyette, S ^b   Vicente Serrano, S M ^a   Beniston, M ^b  

^a INSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CONTROL PERIODS; CONTROL SIMULATION; EMISSION SCENARIO; GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS; HEAVY SNOWFALL; PYRENEES; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SPATIAL VARIABILITY; STUDY AREAS;

CLIMATE CONTROL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GAS EMISSIONS; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES; SNOW;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; EMISSION; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; GREENHOUSE GAS; NUMERICAL MODEL; SNOW; SPATIAL VARIATION; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

PYRENEES;

EID: 79952762079     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9889-3     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438: 303-309.
2. Beguería S (2005) Uncertainties in partial duration series modelling of extremes related to the choice of the threshold value. J Hydrol 303: 215-230.
3. Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano SM, López-Moreno JI, García-Ruiz JM (2009) Annual and seasonal mapping of peak intensity, magnitude and duration of extreme precipitation events across a climatic gradient, North-east Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 29: 1759-1779.
4. Beniston M (2003) Climatic Change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Clim Change 59: 5-31.
5. Beniston M (2005) Warm winter spells in the Swiss Alps: strong heat waves in a cold season? A study focusing on climate obsrvations at the Saentis high mountain site. Geophys Res Lett 32: L01812.
6. Beniston M (2006) The August 2005 intense rainfall event in Switzerland: not necessarily an analog for strong convective events in a greenhouse climate. Geophys Res Lett 33: L5701.
7. Beniston M, Keller F, Goyette S (2003) Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies. Theor Appl Climatol 74: 19-31.
8. Berberan-Santos MN, Bodrenov EN, Pogliani L (1997) On the barometric formula. Am J Phys 65: 404-412.
9. Boone M, Etchevers P (2001) An inter-comparison of three snow schemes of varying complexity coupled to the same land-surface and macroscale hydrologic models. Part I: local scale evaluation at an alpine site. J Hydrometeorol 2: 374-394.
10. Brun E, David P, Sudul M, Brunot G (1992) A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting. J Glaciol 38: 13-22.
11. Brun E, Martin E, Spiridonov V (1997) The coupling of a multilayered snow model with a GCM. Ann Glaciol 25: 66-72.
12. Carrivick JL, Brewer TR (2004) Improving local estimations and regional trends of glacier equilibrium line altitudes. Geogr Ann 86a: 67-79.
13. Changnon SA (2007) Catastrophic winter storms: An scalating problem. Clim Change 84: 131-139.
14. Changnon SA, Changnon D (2006) A spatial analysis of damaging snowstorms in the United States. Nat Hazards 37: 373-389.
15. Christensen OB, Christensen JH, Machenhauer B, Botzet M (1998) Very high-resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia-present climate. J Climate 11: 3204-3229.
16. Cuadrat JM, Saz MA, Vicente-Serrano SM (2007) Atlas Climático de Aragón. Gobierno de Aragón, p229.
17. Dankers R, Christensen OB (2005) Climate change impact on snow coverage, evapotranspiration and river discharge in the subartic tana basin, northern fennoscandinavia. Clim Change 69: 367-392.
18. Datla S, Sharma S (2008) Impact of cold and snow on temporal and spatial variations of highway traffic volumes. J Transp Geogr 16: 358-372.
19. Esteban P, Jones PD, Martin-Vide J, Mases M (2005) Atmospheric circulation patterns related to heavy snowfall days in andorra, Pyrenees. Int J Climatol 25: 319-329.
20. Etchevers P, Martin E, Brown R, Fierz C, Lejeune Y, Bazile E, Boone A, Dai YJ, Essery R, Fernandez A, Gusev Y, Jordan R, Koren V, Kowalczyk E, Nasonova NO, Olga N, Pyles RD, Schlosser A, Shmakin AB, Smirnova TG, Strasser U, Verseghy D, Yamazaki T, Yang ZL (2003) Validation of the energy budget of an alpine snowpack simulated by several snow models (SnowMIP project). Ann Glaciol 38: 150-158.
21. Frei C, Christensen JH, Dequé M, Jacob D, Jones RG, Vidale PL (2003) Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J Geophys Res 108(D3): 4124.
22. Frei C, Schöll R, Fukutome S, Schimidili J, Vidale PL (2006) Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison scenarios from regional climate models. J Geophys Res 111: D06105.
23. Gao X, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2006) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution doubled nested RCM simulation. Geoph Res Lett 33: L03706.
24. García-Ruiz JM, Puigdefabregas J, Creus J (1986) La acumulación de la nieve en el Pirineo Central y su influencia hidrológica. Pirineos 127: 27-72.
25. Germain D, Filion L, Hétu B (2009) Snow avalanche regime and climatic conditions in the Chic-Choc Range, eastern Canada. Clim Change 92: 141-167.
26. Giorgi F (2005) Climatic change prediction. Clim Change 73: 239-265.
27. Hallcross D (1997) Handbook of psychometric charts-humidity diagrams for engineers. Blackie Academic & Professional, London, p316.
28. Hantel M, Hirtl-Wielke LM (2007) Sensitivity of Alpine snow cover to European temperature. Int J Climatol 27(10): 1265-1275.
29. Hershfield DM (1973) On the probability of extreme rainfall events. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 54: 1013-1018.
30. Höller P (2009) Avalanche cycles in Austria: an analysis of the major events in the last 50 years. Nat Hazards 48(3): 399-424.
31. Hosking JRM (1990) L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. J R Stat Soc B 52: 105-124.
32. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1987) Parameter and quantile estimation for the Generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 29: 339-349.
33. IPCC (2007) IPCC Fourth assessment report: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p996.
34. Jansson P-E, Karlberg L (2001) Coupled Heat and Mass Transfer Model for Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Systems, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stockholm, p321.
35. Jonas T, Geiger F, Jenny H (2008a) Mortality pattern of the Alpine Chamois: the influence of snow-meteorological factors. Ann Glaciol 49: 56-62.
36. Jonas T, Rixen C, Sturm M, Stöckli V (2008b) How alpine plant growth is linked to snow cover and climate variability. J Geophys Res 113: G03013. doi: 10. 1029/2007JG000680.
37. Julian-Andrés A, Peña-Monné JL, Chueca-Cía J, Lapeña-Laiglesia A, López-Moreno JI, Zabalza J (2000) Cartografía de zonas probables de aludes en el pirineo aragonés: metodología y resultados. Boletín de la A. G. E (Bulletin of Spanish Geographical Society) 30: 119-134.
38. Keller F, Goyette S (2005) Snowmelt under different temperature increase scenarios in the Swiss Alps. In: Dejong C, Collins DN, Ranzi R (eds) Climate and hydrology of mountain areas. Hoboken, Wiley, p315.
39. Keller F, Goyette S, Beniston M (2005) Sensitivity analysis of snow cover to climate change scenarios and their impact on plant habitats in alpine terrain. Clim Change 72: 299-319.
40. Kim J (2005) A projection of the effects of the climate change induced by increased CO2 on extreme hydrologic events in the western U. S. Clim Change 68: 153-168.
41. Lasanta T, Laguna Marín-Yaseli M, Vicente-Serrano SM (2007) Do tourism-based ski resorts contribute to the homogeneous development of the Mediterranean mountains? A case study in the Central Spanish Pyrenees? Tour Manage 28(5): 1326-1339.
42. Laternser M, Scheebeli M (2003) Long-term snow climate trends of the Swiss Alps. Int J Climatol 23: 733-750.
43. López-Moreno JI (2005) Recent variations of snowpack depth in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Artic, Antartic, and Alpine Research 37(2): 253-260.
44. López-Moreno JI (2006) Cambio ambiental y gestión de embalses en el Pirineo Central Español. Consejo de Protección de la Naturaleza de Aragón. Zaragoza, p260.
45. López-Moreno JI, Beniston M (2009) Daily intensity precipitation for the 21st century: seasonal changes over an Atlantic-Mediterranean gradient in the Pyrenean mountains. Theor Appl Climatol 95: 375-384.
46. López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Lanjeri S (2007) Mapping the snowpack distribution over large areas using GIS and interpolation techniques. Clim Res 33: 257-270.
47. López-Moreno JI, Goyette S, Beniston M (2008a) Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and expected changes over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models. Int J Climatol 28(11): 1535-1550.
48. López-Moreno JI, Goyette S, Beniston M, Alvera B (2008b) Sensitivity of the snow energy balance to climatic changes: implications for the evolution of snowpack in the Pyrenees in the 21st century. Clim Res 36: 206-217.
49. López-Moreno JI, Goyette S, Beniston M (2009) Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients. J Hydrol 347: 284-396.
50. Madsen H, Rosbjerg D (1997) The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling. Water Resour Res 33: 737-746.
51. McClung D, Schaerer P (eds) (1993) The mountaineers. Seattle, p276.
52. Mellander PE, Löfvenius MO, Laudon H (2007) Climate change impact on snow and soil temperature in boreal Scot pine stands. Clim Change 85: 179-193.
53. Merritt W, Alila Y, Barton M, Taylor B, Cohen S, Neilsen D (2006) Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia. J Hydrol 326: 79-108.
54. Nakicenovic N, Grübler A, McDonalds A (1998) Global energy perspectives. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p299.
55. Nesje A, Dahl SO (2000) Glaciers and environmental change. Arnold, London.
56. Perry RH, Green DW (1997) Perry's Chemical Engineers' Handbook, 7th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York, p2400.
57. Rao AR, Hamed KH (2000) Flood frequency analysis. CRC, New York.
58. Rasmus S, Räisänen J, Lehning M (2004) Estimating snow conditions in Finland in the late 21st century using the SNOWPACK model with regional climate scenario data as input. Ann Glaciol 38: 238-244.
59. Spreitzhofer G (2000) On the characteristics of heavy multiple-day snowfalls in the Eastern Alps. Nat Hazards 21: 35-53.
60. Strasser U (2008) Snow loads in a changing climate: new risks? Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 8: 1-8.
61. Uhlmann B, Goyette S Beniston M (2009) Sensitivity analysis of snow patterns in Swiss ski resorts to shifts in temperature precipitation and humidity under condition of climate change. Int J Climatol 29: 1048-1055.
62. Wash JE (1995) Long-term observations and monitoring of the cryosphere. Clim Change 31: 369-394.
63. Ye H, yang D, Robinson D (2008) Winter rain on snow and its association with air temperature in Eurasia. Hydrol Process 22: 2728-2736.