Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation?

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 137, Issue 655, 2011, Pages 544-552

  Jones, Charles ^a   Carvalho, Leila M V ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Intraseasonal variability; MJO

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE SYSTEM; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MJO; PACIFIC OCEAN; TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY;

GLOBAL WARMING;

STOCHASTIC MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; PROBABILITY; SEASONAL VARIATION; STOCHASTICITY;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL); PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 79952503277     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.765     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Liebmann B. 2002a. Extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America and large-scale convective patterns in the South Atlantic convergence zone. J. Climate 15: 2377-2394.
2. Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Silva Dias MAF. 2002b. Intraseasonal large-scale circulations and mesoscale convective activity in tropical South America during the TRMM-LBA campaign. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 107D20 DOI:29/2001JD000745.
3. Inness PM, Slingo JM, Guilyardi E, Cole J. 2003. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in a coupled general circulation model. Part II: The role of the basic state. J. Climate 16: 365-382.
4. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HL. (eds.) Cambridge University Press: London and New York.
5. Isoguchi O, Kawamura H. 2006. MJO-related summer cooling and phytoplankton blooms in the South China Sea in recent years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L16615, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027046.
6. Jones C. 2000. Occurrence of extreme precipitation events in California and relationships with the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate 13: 3576-3587.
7. Jones C. 2009. A homogeneous stochastic model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate 22: 3270-3288.
8. Jones C, Carvalho LMV. 2006. Changes in the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during 1958-2004. J. Climate 19: 6353-6370.
9. Jones C, Carvalho LMV. 2011. Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity. Clim. Dyn. 36: 229-246. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0660-2.
10. Jones C, Waliser DE, Lau KM, Stern W. 2004a. Global occurrences of extreme precipitation and the Madden-Julian oscillation: Observations and predictability. J. Climate 17: 4575-4589.
11. Jones C, Waliser DE, Lau KM, Stern W. 2004b. The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its impact on Northern Hemisphere weather predictability. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 1462-1471.
12. Jones C, Gottschalck J, Carvalho LMV, Higgins WR. 2011. Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on forecasts of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States. Mon. Weather Rev. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3512.1. In press.
13. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kirtler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetma A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP-NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull.Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 77: 437-471.
14. Kemball-Cook SR, Weare BC. 2001. The onset of convection in the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate 14: 780-793.
15. Kim J-H, Ho C-H, Kim H-S, Sui C-H, Park SK. 2008. Systematic variation of summertime tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate 21: 1171-1191.
16. Lau WKM. 2005. El Niño Southern Oscillation connection. In: Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, Lau WKM, Waliser DE. (eds.) Springer Praxis: Chichester, UK.
17. Lau WKM, Waliser DE. 2005. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Springer: Chichester, UK.
18. Liebmann B, Smith CA. 1996. Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 77: 1275-1277.
19. Lin JL, Kiladis GN, Mapes BE, Weickmann KM, Sperber KR, Lin W, Wheeler MC, Schubert SD, Del Genio A, Donner LJ, Emori S, Gueremy J-F, Hourdin F, Rasch PJ, Roeckner E, Scinocca JF. 2006. Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: Convective signals. J. Climate 19: 2665-2690.
20. Madden RA, Julian PR. 1994. Observations of the 40-50-day tropical oscillation-A review. Mon. Weather Rev. 122: 814-837.
21. Maloney ED, Hartmann DL. 2000. Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Science 287: 2002-2004.
22. Matthews AJ. 2000. Propagation mechanisms for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126: 2637-2651.
23. Matthews AJ. 2008. Primary and successive events in the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 439-453. DOI: 10.1002/qj.224.
24. Matthews AJ, Meredith MP. 2004. Variability of Antarctic circumpolar transport and the Southern Annular Mode associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res.Lett. 31: DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021666.
25. Matthews AJ, Singhruck P, Heywood KJ. 2007. Deep ocean impact of a Madden-Julian Oscillation observed by Argo floats. Science 318: 1765-1769.
26. McPhaden MJ. 1999. Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science 283: 950-954.
27. Pohl B, Matthews AJ. 2007. Observed changes in the lifetime and amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation associated with interannual ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate 20: 2659-2674.
28. Ray P, Zhang CD. 2010. A case study of the mechanics of extratropical influence on the initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci. 67: 515-528.
29. Riemann-Campe K, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F. 2009. Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis. Atmos.Res. 93: 534-545.
30. Rodionov SN. 2004. A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L09204, DOI: 09210.01029/02004GL019448.
31. Slingo JM, Rowell DP, Sperber KR, Nortley E. 1999. On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its relationship with El Niño. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125: 583-609.
32. Waliser DE, Murtugudde R, Strutton P, Li JL. 2005. Subseasonal organization of ocean chlorophyll: Prospects for prediction based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L23602, DOI: 23610.21029/22005GL024300.
33. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH. 2004. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 1917-1932.
34. Wilks DS. 2006. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. (second ed.) International Geophysics Series. Academic Press: San Diego and London.
35. Zhang CD. 2005. Madden-Julian Oscillation. Rev. Geophys. 43: 1-36.