On the reliability of the rank histogram

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 139, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 311-316

  Wilks, D S ^a  

^a Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

Ensembles; Forecasting; Ranking methods; Statistics

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTIONS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; ENSEMBLES; GAUSSIAN MODEL; INDISTINGUISHABILITY; JOINT DISTRIBUTIONS; RANK HISTOGRAMS; RANKING METHODS;

GRAPHIC METHODS; RATING; STATISTICAL METHODS;

FORECASTING;

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GAUSSIAN METHOD; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL MODEL; RANKING;

EID: 79951633987     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3446.1     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518-1530.
2. Anderson, J. L., 1997: The impact of dynamical constraints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: Low-order perfect model results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2969-2983.
3. Bowler, N. E., A. Arribas, K. R. Milne, K. B. Robertson, and S. E. Beare, 2008: The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 703-722.
4. Bröcker, J., 2008: On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 15, 661-673.
5. Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
6. Elmore, K. L., 2005: Alternatives to the chi-square test for evaluating rank histograms from ensemble forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 789-795.
7. Gneiting, T., F. Balabdaoui, and A. E. Raftery, 2007: Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 69B, 243-268.
8. Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.
9. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts.Mon.Wea.Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
10. Johnson, C., and N. Bowler, 2009: On the reliability and calibration of ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1717-1720.
11. Jolliffe, I. T., and C. Primo, 2008: Evaluating rank histograms using decompositions of the chi-square statistic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2133-2139.
12. Marzban, C., R. Wang, F. Kong, and S. Leyton, 2010: Rank histograms and correlations. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5.4. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_163192.htm.]
13. Marzban, C., R. Wang, F. Kong, and S. Leyton, 2011: On the effect of correlations on rank histograms: Reliability of temperature and wind speed forecasts from finescale ensemble reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 295-310.
14. Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
15. Murphy, A. H., 1988: Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2417-2424.
16. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
17. Palmer, T., R. Buizza, R. Hagedorn, A. Lawrence, M. Leutbechner, and L. Smith, 2006: Ensemble prediction: A pedagogical perspective. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 106, ECMWF, Reading, UnitedKingdom, 10-17. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/106.pdf.]
18. Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2473-2489.
19. Talagrand, O., R. Vautard, and B. Strauss, 1997: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 1-25. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/16233.]
20. Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, G. Candille, and Y. Zhu, 2003: Probability and ensemble forecasts. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide inAtmospheric Science, I. T. Jolliffe andD. B. Stephenson, Eds., Wiley, 137-163.
21. Wilks, D. S., 2004: The minimum spanning tree histogram as a verification tool for multidimensional ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1329-1340.
22. Wilks, D. S., 2006a: Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting. Meteor. Appl., 13, 243-256.
23. Wilks, D. S., 2006b: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.