Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class

Judgment and Decision Making

Volumn 6, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 43-57

  Hoffrage, Ulrich ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Hard easy effect; Overconfidence; Probabilistic inference; Recognition heuristic; Reference class

Indexed keywords

EID: 79951595217     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19302975     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Anderson, J. R.& Schooler, L. (1991). Reflections of the environment in memory. Psychological Science, 2, 396-408.
2. Bröder, A. (2000). Assessing the empirical validity of the take the best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 1332-1346.
3. Bröder, A., & Eichler, A. (2006). The use of recognition information and additional cues in inferences from memory. Acta Psychologica, 121, 275-284.
4. Chater, N., Oaksford, M., & Nakisa, R. (2003). Fast, frugal, and rational: How rational norms explain behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 90, 63-86.
5. Dhami, M., Hertwig, R. & Hoffrage, U. (2004). The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 959-988.
6. Dougherty, M. R., Franco-Watkins, A. M., & Thomas, R. (2008). Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics. Psychological Review, 115, 199-213.
7. Erdfelder, E., Küpper-Tetzel, C. E., & Mattern, S. D. (2011). Threshold models of recognition and the recognition heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 7-22.
8. Erev, I., Wallsten, T.S., & Budescu, D.V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519-527.
9. Fiedler, K. (2000). Beware of samples! A cognitiveecological sampling approach to judgment biases. Psychological Review, 107, 659-676.
10. Fiedler, K., Walther, E., Freytag, P., & Plessner, H. (2002). Judgment biases in a simulated classroom-A cognitive-environmental approach. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 88, 527-561.
11. Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103, 650-669.
12. Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. (2011). The recognition heuristic: A decade of research. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 100-121.
13. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Goldstein, D. G. (2008). Fast and frugal heuristics are plausible models of cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas (2008). Psychological Review, 115, 230-237.
14. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
15. Gigerenzer, G., & Murray, D. J. (1987). Cognition as intuitive statistics. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
16. Gigerenzer, G., Switjink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty J., & Krüger, L. (1989). The empire of chance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
17. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., &the ABC Research Group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York: Oxford University Press.
18. Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The recognition heuristic: How ignorance makes us smart. In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group, Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 37-48). New York: Oxford University Press.
19. Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75-90.
20. Hertwig, R., Herzog, S. M., Schooler, L. J., & Reimer, T. (2008). Fluency heuristic: A model of how the mind exploits a by-product of information retrieval. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 34, 1191-1206.
21. Hilbig, B. E. (2010). Precise models deserve precise measures: A methodological dissection. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 300-309.
22. Hilbig, B. E., Erdfelder, E., & Pohl, R. F. (2010). One-reason decision-making unveiled: A measurement model of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 36, 123-134.
23. Hilbig, B. E., & Pohl, R. F. (2008). Recognizing users of the recognition heuristic. Experimental Psychology, 55, 394-401.
24. Hilbig, B. E., & Pohl, R. F. (2009). Ignorance- vs. evidence-based decision making: A decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 1296-1305.
25. Hilbig, B. E., Pohl, R. F., & Bröder, A. (2009). Criterion knowledge: A moderator of using the recognition heuristic? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22, 510-523.
26. Hoffrage, U. (1995). Zur Angemessenheit subjektiver Sicherheits-Urteile. Eine Exploration der Theorie der probabilistischen mentalen Modelle. [The adequacy of subjective confidence judgments: Studies concerning the theory of probabilistic mental models]. Doctoral dissertation, University of Salzburg, Austria.
27. Hoffrage, U. (2004). Overconfidence. In R. F. Pohl (Ed.), Cognitive illusions: Fallacies and biases in thinking, judgement, and memory (pp. 235-254). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
28. Hoffrage, U., & Hertwig, R. (2006). Which world should be represented in representative design? In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin (Eds.), Information sampling and adaptive cognition (pp. 381-408). Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.
29. Hogarth, R. (2005). Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence from random samples of realworld behavior. In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin (Eds.), Sampling and adaptive cognition (pp. 456-484). Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.
30. Juslin, P. (1994). The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 226-246.
31. Juslin, P., & Olsson, H. (1997). Thurstonian and Brunswikian origins of uncertainty in judgment: A sampling model of confidence in sensory discrimination. Psychological Review, 104, 344-366.
32. Juslin, P., Olsson, H., & Björkman, M. (1997). Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 189-209.
33. Juslin, P. Olsson, H., & Winman, A. (1998). The calibration issue: Theoretical comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 73, 3-26.
34. Juslin, P., Wennerholm, P., & Olsson, H. (1999). Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 25, 1038-1052.
35. Juslin, P., Winman, A., & Olsson, H. (2000). Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review, 107, 384-396.
36. Kilcher, H. (1991). Experimentelle Untersuchungen zum Overconfidence-Phänomen: Zur Bedeutung von Aufgabenzusammenstellung und zur Vorhersage von Confidence-Angaben. Diploma-thesis submitted to the University of Constance, Germany, on February 20th, 1991.
37. Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also no more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 36, 143-166.
38. Marewski, J. N., Gaissmaier, W., Schooler, L. J., Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2010). From recognition to decisions: Extending and testing recognitionbased models for multi-alternative inference. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 17, 287-309.
39. McClelland, A. G. R., & Bolger, F. (1994) The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980-94, in G. Wright and P. Ayton (Eds.) Subjective probability (pp. 453-482). Chichester, England: Wiley.
40. Newell, B. R., & Fernandez, D. (2006). On the binary quality of recognition and the inconsequentiality of further knowledge: Two critical tests of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 333-346.
41. Newell, B. R., & Shanks, D. R. (2004). On the role of recognition in decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 923-935.
42. Oppenheimer, D. M. (2003). Not so fast! (and not so frugal!): Rethinking the recognition heuristic. Cognition, 90, B1-B9.
43. Pachur, T., Bröder, A., & Marewski, J. N. (2008). The recognition heuristic in memory-based inference: Is recognition a non-compensatory cue? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21, 183-210.
44. Pachur, T., Todd, P. M., Gigerenzer, G., Schooler L. J. Goldstein D. G. (in press). Is ignorance an adaptive tool? A review of recognition heuristic research. In P. M. Todd, G. Gigerenzer, & the ABC Research Group & Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world. New York: Oxford University Press.
45. Parducci, A. (1965). Category judgments: A rangefrequency model. Psychological Review, 72, 407-418.
46. Pleskac, T. J. (2007). A signal detection analysis of the recognition heuristic. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 14, 379-391.
47. Pohl, R. F. (2006). Empirical tests of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 251-271.
48. Richter, T., & Späth, P. (2006). Recognition is used as one cue among others in judgment and decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 32, 150-162.
49. Schmuck, S. (1993). Die "Bekanntheit"-Cue oder Variable? Eine kritische Elaboration der Theorie der probabilistischen mentalen Modelle (PMMTheorie). Diploma-thesis submitted to the University of Salzburg, Austria, on April 1st, 1993.
50. Schooler, L. J., & Hertwig, R. (2005). How forgetting aids heuristic inferences. Psychological Review, 112, 610-628.
51. Todd, P. M., Gigerenzer, G., and the ABC Research Group. (2000). How can we open up the adaptive toolbox? Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 23, 767-780.
52. von Mises, R. (1957). Probability, statistics, and truth. New York: Dover Publications.