Hierarchical models of simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making

Journal of Mathematical Psychology

Volumn 55, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 57-67

  Merkle, Edgar C ^a   Smithson, Michael ^b   Verkuilen, Jay ^c  

^a WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian model checking; Confidence; Decision making; Subjective probability

Indexed keywords

EID: 79551619759     PISSN: 00222496     EISSN: 10960880     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2010.08.011     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Bouwmeester S., Verkoeijen P.P.J.L. Latent variable modeling of cognitive processes in true and false recognition of words: a developmental perspective. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 2010, 139:365-381.
2. Budescu, D. V., & Johnson, T. (1997) On the use of Item Response Theory in the study of probability judgments. Presented at the 30th Annual Meeting of the Society for Mathematical Psychology.
3. Dickey J.M., Lientz B.P. The weighted likelihood ratio, sharp hypotheses about chances, the order of a Markov chain. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 1970, 41:214-226.
4. Dougherty M.R.P., Gettys C.F., Ogden E.E. MINERVA-DM: a memory processes model for judgments of likelihood. Psychological Review 1999, 106:180-209.
5. Erev I., Wallsten T.S., Budescu D.V. Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: the role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review 1994, 101:519-527.
6. Fischhoff B., Bruin, W.Bruine de Fifty-fifty=50%?. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 1999, 12:149-163.
7. Gelman A., Carlin J.B., Stern H.S., Rubin D.B. Bayesian data analysis 2004, Chapman & Hall, London. 2nd ed.
8. Bayesian evaluation of informative hypotheses 2008, Springer, New York, NY. H. Hoijtink, I. Klugkist, P.A. Boelen (Eds.).
9. Juslin P., Winman A., Olsson H. Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: a critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review 2000, 107:384-396.
10. Karmarkar U.S. Subjectively weighted utility: a descriptive extension of the expected utility model. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 1978, 21:61-72.
11. Kass R.E., Raftery A.E. Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1995, 90:773-795.
12. Koriat A., Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B. Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 1980, 6:107-118.
13. Lee M.D., Dry M.J. Decision making and confidence given uncertain advice. Cognitive Science 2006, 30:1081-1095.
14. Liu C.C., Aitkin M. Bayes factors: prior sensitivity and model generalizability. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 2008, 52:362-375.
15. McKenzie C.R.M. Underweighting alternatives and overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 1997, 71:141-160.
16. McKenzie C.R.M., Wixted J.T., Noelle D.C., Gyurjyan G. Relation between confidence in yes-no and forced-choice tasks. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 2001, 130:140-155.
17. Merkle E.C., Sieck W.R., Van Zandt T. Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2008, 21:428-448.
18. Merkle E.C., Van Zandt T. An application of the Poisson race model to confidence calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 2006, 135:391-408.
19. Nilsson H., Rieskamp J., Wagenmakers E.J. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 2011, 55(1):84-93.
20. Pleskac T.J., Busemeyer J.R. Two-stage dynamic signal detection theory: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. Psychological Review 2010, 117:864-901.
21. Ratcliff R., Starns J. Modeling confidence and response time in recognition memory. Psychological Review 2009, 116:59-83.
22. Reyna V.F., Adam M.B. Fuzzy-trace theory, risk communication, and product labeling in sexually transmitted diseases. Risk Analysis 2003, 23:325-342.
23. Reyna V.F., Brainerd C.J. Fuzzy-trace theory: an interim synthesis. Learning and Individual Differences 1995, 7:1-75.
24. Schmoyer R.L., Beauchamp J.J., Brandt C.C., Hoffman F.O. Difficulties with the lognormal model in mean estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 1996, 3:81-97.
25. Shlomi Y., Wallsten T.S. Subjective recalibration of advisors' probability estimates. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 2010, 17:492-498.
26. Sieck W.R., Merkle E.C., Van Zandt T. Option fixation: a cognitive contributor to overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2007, 103:68-83.
27. Smithson, M., Merkle, E. C., & Verkuilen, J. Beta regression finite mixture models of polarization and priming. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics (in press).
28. Smithson M., Verkuilen J. A better lemon squeezer? Maximum-likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables. Psychological Methods 2006, 11:54-71.
29. Thomas A., O'Hara B., Ligges U., Sturtz S. Making BUGS open. R News 2006, 6:12-17.
30. Thomas R.P., Dougherty M.R., Sprenger A.M., Harbison J.I. Diagnostic hypothesis generation and human judgment. Psychological Review 2008, 115:155-185.
31. Tversky A., Koehler D.J. Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review 1994, 101:547-567.
32. van Ravenzwaaij D., Dutilh G., Wagenmakers E.J. Cognitive model decomposition of the BART: assessment and application. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 2011, 55(1):94-105.
33. Van Zandt T. ROC curves and confidence judgments in recognition memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 2000, 26:582-600.
34. Vickers D. Decision processes in visual perception 1979, Academic Press, New York.
35. Wagenmakers E.J., Lodewyckx T., Kuriyal H., Grasman R. Bayesian hypothesis testing for psychologists: a tutorial on the Savage-Dickey method. Cognitive Psychology 2010, 60:158-189.