Incorporating genetic variation into a model of budburst phenology of coast douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii)

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Volumn 41, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 139-150

  Gould, Peter J ^a   Harrington, Constance A ^a   St Clair, J Bradley ^b  

^a PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^b PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUDBURST; DOUGLAS FIR; EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE; GENETIC VARIATION; LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS; MAIN COMPONENT; MITIGATION STRATEGY; NEW MODEL; PSEUDOTSUGA MENZIESII; SEED TRANSFER; SUMMER DROUGHTS;

CLIMATE MODELS; ECOLOGY; FORECASTING; GENES; POPULATION STATISTICS; VALUE ENGINEERING;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTIVE RADIATION; BIOACCUMULATION; BUDBURST; CLIMATE CHANGE; COASTAL ZONE; DATA SET; DORMANCY; DROUGHT; EVERGREEN TREE; FORECASTING METHOD; GENETIC VARIATION; GENOTYPE; NUMERICAL MODEL; PHENOLOGY; POPULATION STRUCTURE; SEED; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

PSEUDOTSUGA; PSEUDOTSUGA MENZIESII; PSEUDOTSUGA MENZIESII VAR. MENZIESII;

EID: 78951494730     PISSN: 00455067     EISSN: 12086037     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/X10-191     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Aitken, S.N., and Adams, W.T. 1997. Spring cold hardiness under strong genetic control in Oregon populations of Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii. Can. J. For. Res. 27(11): 1773-1780. doi:10.1139/cjfr-27-11-1773.
2. Aitken, S.N., and Hannerz, M. 2001. Genecology and gene resource management for conifer cold hardiness. In Conifer cold hardiness. Edited by F.J. Bigras and S.J. Columbo. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. pp. 25-53.
3. Akaike, H. 1974. A new look at statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Automat. Contr. 19(6): 716-723.doi:10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.
4. Campbell, R.K. 1979. Genecology of Douglas-fir in a watershed in the Oregon Cascades. Ecology, 60(5): 1036-1050.doi:10.2307/ 1936871.
5. Campbell, R.K., and Sugano, A.I. 1979. Genecology of bud-burst phenology in Douglas-fir: response to flushing temperature and chilling. Bot. Gaz. 140(2): 223-231. doi:10.1086/337079.
6. Cannell, M.G.R., and Smith, R.I. 1983. Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. J. Appl. Ecol. 20(3): 951-963. doi:10.2307/2403139.
7. Chuine, I. 2000. A unified model for budburst of trees. J. Theor. Biol. 207(3): 337-347. doi:10.1006/jtbi.2000.2178. PMID:11082304.
8. Chuine, I., Cour, P., and Rousseau, D.D. 1998. Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing. Plant Cell Environ. 21(5): 455-466. doi:10. 1046/j.1365-3040.1998.00299.x.
9. Chuine, I., Cour, P., and Rousseau, D.D. 1999. Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling. Plant Cell Environ. 22(1): 1-13. doi:10.1046/j.1365-3040.1999.00395.x.
10. Chuine, I., Belmonte, J., and Mignot, A. 2000. A modeling analysis of the genetic variation of phenology between tree populations. J. Ecol. 88(4): 561-570. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2745.2000.00468.x.
11. Cline, M.G., and Harrington, C.A. 2007. Apical dominance and apical control in multiple flushing of temperate woody species. Can. J. For. Res. 37(1): 74-83. doi:10.1139/X06-218.
12. Crookston, N.L. 2008. Current climate data for western North America. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, Indiana. Available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu. edu/climate/current/ [accessed 21 December 2008].
13. Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., and Phillips, D.L. 1994. A statisticaltopographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. J. Appl. Meteorol. 33(2): 140-158. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2.
14. Garcia-Mozo, H., Orlandi, F., Galan, C., Fornaciari, M., Romano, B., et al. 2009. Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 95(3-4): 385-395. doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0016-6.
15. Hall, D.K., Riggs, G.A., and Salomonson, V.V. 2006. MODIS/ Terra snow cover 8-day L3 Global 500 m Grid V005, 2000-2009. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Digital media, updated weekly.
16. Hänninen, H. 1995. Effects of climate change on trees from cool and temperate regions: an ecophysiological approach to modeling of budburst phenology. Can. J. Bot. 73(2): 183-199. doi:10. 1139/b95-022.
17. Hänninen, H., and Kramer, K. 2007. A framework for modelling the annual cycle of trees in boreal and temperate regions. Silva Fenn. 41: 167-205.
18. Harrington, C.A., Gould, P.J., and St. Clair, J.B. 2010. Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir. For. Ecol. Manage. 259: 798-808. doi:10.1016/j.foreco. 2009.06.018.
19. Hermann, R.K., and Lavender, D.P. 1990. Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco Douglas-fir. In Silvics of North America. 1. Conifers. Technical coordinators: R.M. Burns and B.H. Honkala. USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC, Agriculture Handbook 654. Vol. 1. pp. 527-540.
20. Ichii, K., White, M.A., Votava, P., Michaelis, A., and Nemani, R.R. 2008. Evaluation of snow models in terrestrial biosphere models using ground observation and satellite data: impact on terrestrial ecosystem processes. Hydrol. Process. 22(3): 347-355. doi:10.1002/hyp.6616.
21. Irgens-Moller, H. 1967. Patterns of height growth initiation and cessation in Douglas-fir. Silvae Genet. 16: 56-58.
22. Joly, R.J., Adams, W.T., and Stafford, S.G. 1989. Phenological and morphological responses of mesic and dry site sources of coastal Douglas-fir to water deficit. For. Sci. 35: 987-1005.
23. Krueger, K.W., and Trappe, J.M. 1967. Food reserves and seasonal growth of Douglas-fir seedlings. For. Sci. 13: 192-202.
24. Leinonen, I., and Kramer, K. 2002. Applications of phenological models to predict the future carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests. Clim. Change, 55(1-2): 99-113. doi:10.1023/A:1020251507469.
25. Loopstra, C.A., and Adams, W.T. 1989. Patterns of variation in first-year seedling traits within and among Douglas-fir breeding zones in southwest Oregon. Silvae Genet. 38: 235-243.
26. Lott, N.R., and Baldwin, R. 2002. The FCC integrated surface hourly database, a new resource for global climate data. In The 13th Symposium on Global Climate Variations, 13-17 January 2002, Orlando, Florida. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. pp. 70-72.
27. Lumley, T. 2009. leaps: regression subset selection (with Fortran code by Alan Miller). R package version 2.9. Available at http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=leaps.
28. Menzel, A., and Sparks, T. 2006. Temperature and plant development: phenology and seasonality. In Plant growth and climate change. Edited by J.I.L. Morison and M.D. Morecroft. Blackwell Publishing Ltd., Oxford, UK. pp: 70-95.
29. Menzel, A., Sparks, T.H., Estrella, N., Koch, E., Aasa, A., et al. 2006. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob. Change Biol. 12(10): 1969-1976. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x.
30. Mimura, M., and Aitken, S.N. 2010. Local adaptation at the range peripheries of Sitka spruce. J. Evol. Biol. 23(2): 249-258. doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2009.01910.x. PMID:20021549.
31. Morin, X., Viner, D., and Chuine, I. 2008. Tree species range shifts at a continental scale: new predictive insights from a process based model. J. Ecol. 96(4): 784-794. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745. 2008.01369.x.
32. Morin, X., Lechowicz, M.J., Augspurger, C., O'Keefe, J., Viner, D., and Chuine, I. 2009. Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century. Glob. Change Biol. 15(4): 961-975. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01735.x.
33. Mote, P.W., Canning, D., Fluharty, D., Francis, R., Franklin, J., et al. 1999. Impacts of climate variability and change: Pacific Northwest. Climate Change Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington. Available at http://www.usgcrp. gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/pnw.pdf [accessed 5 May 2008].
34. Neter, J., Kutner, M.H., Nachsheim, C.J., and Wasserman, W. 1996. Applied linear statistical models. 4th ed. WCB McGraw-Hill, Burr Ridge, Illinois.
35. Newton, M., and Preest, D.S. 1988. Growth and water relations of Douglas Fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) seedlings under different weed control regimes. Weed Sci. 36: 653-662.
36. Parson, E.A. 2001. Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Pacific Northwest. In Climate change impacts on the United States: foundation report. Edited by National Assessment Synthesis Team. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp. 247-280.
37. Picard, G., Quegan, S., Delbart, N., Lomas, M.R., Toan, T.L., and Woodward, F.I. 2005. Bud-burst modelling in Siberia and its impact on quantifying the carbon budget. Glob. Change Biol. 11(12): 2164-2176. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01055.x.
38. Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., and Sarkar, D. 2006. nlme: Linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. R package version 3.1-73. Available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/nlme/ index.html.
39. Team. 2006. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0. Available at http://www.R-project.org.
40. Rehfeldt, G.E. 1989. Ecological adaptations in Douglas-Fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca): a synthesis. For. Ecol. Manage. 28(3-4): 203-215. doi:10.1016/0378-1127(89)90004-2.
41. Rehfeldt, G.E. 2006. A spline model of climate for the western United States. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR165.
42. Rose, R., Gleason, J.F., and Atkinson, M. 1993. Morphological and water-stress characteristics of three Douglas-fir stocktypes in relation to seedling performance under different soil moisture conditions. New For. 7: 1-17.
43. Rotzer, T., Grote, R., and Pretzsch, H. 2004. The timing of bud burst and its effect on tree growth. Int. J. Biometeorol. 48(3): 109-118. doi:10.1007/s00484-003-0191-1. PMID:14564495.
44. Schaber, J., and Badeck, F.W. 2003. Physiology-based phenologymodels for forest tree species in Germany. Int. J. Biometeorol. 47(4): 193-201. doi:10.1007/s00484-003-0171-5. PMID:12698325.
45. Sorensen, F.C. 1983. Geographic variation in seedling Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) from the western Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon. Ecology, 64(4): 696-702. doi:10.2307/1937191.
46. St. Clair, J.B., Mandel, N.L., and Vance orland, K.W. 2005. Genecology of Douglas-fir in western Oregon and Washington. Ann. Bot. (Lond.), 96(7): 1199-1214. doi:10.1093/aob/mci278.
47. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. 2009. Soil Survey Geographic Databases for survey areas in California, Oregon, and Washington. Available at http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov [accessed 26 June 2009].
48. Waddell, K., and Hiserote, B. 2005. The PNW-FIA Integrated Database. Version 2.0 [CD-ROM]. Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.
49. Wang, T., Hamann, A., Spittlehouse, D.L., and Aitken, S.N. 2006. Development of scale-free climate data for western Canada for use in resource management. Int. J. Climatol. 26(3): 383-397. doi:10.1002/joc.1247.
50. Weiskittel, A.R. 2006. Development of a hybrid modeling framework for intensively managed Douglas-fir plantation in the Pacific Northwest. Ph.D. dissertation, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.
51. Weiskittel, A.R., Maguire, D.A., Monserud, R.A, and Johnson, G.P. 2010. A hybrid model for intensively managed Douglas-fir plantations in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Eur. J. For. Res. 129: 325-338. doi: 10.1007/s10342-009-0339-6.
52. White, T.L. 1987. Drought tolerance of southwestern Oregon Douglas-fir. For. Sci. 33: 283-293.