Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota

Biological Conservation

Volumn 144, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 548-557

  Laurance, William F ^a,b   Carolina Useche, D ^b   Shoo, Luke P ^a   Herzog, Sebastian K ^c   Kessler, Michael ^d   Escobar, Federico ^e   Brehm, Gunnar ^f   Axmacher, Jan C ^g   Chen, I Ching ^h   Gámez, Lucrecia Arellano ^e   Hietz, Peter ⁱ   Fiedler, Konrad ^j   Pyrcz, Tomasz ^k   Wolf, Jan ^l   Merkord, Christopher L ^m   Cardelus, Catherine ⁿ   Marshall, Andrew R ^f,h   Ah Peng, Claudine ^p   Aplet, Gregory H ^q   del Coro Arizmendi, M ^r   Baker, William J ^s   Barone, John ^t   Brühl, Carsten A ^u   Bussmann, Rainer W ^v   Cicuzza, Daniele ^d   Eilu, Gerald ^w   Favila, Mario E ^e   Hemp, Andreas ^x   Hemp, Claudia ^x   Homeier, Jürgen ^y   Hurtado, Johanna ^z   Jankowski, Jill ^aa   Kattán, Gustavo ^ab   Kluge, Jürgen ^d   Krömer, Thorsten ^ac   Lees, David C ^ad   Lehnert, Marcus ^ae   Longino, John T ^af   Lovett, Jon ^h,o   Martin, Patrick H ^ag   Patterson, Bruce D ^ah   Pearson, Richard G ^a   Peh, Kelvin S H ^ai   Richardson, Barbara ^aj   Richardson, Michael ^aj   Samways, Michael J ^ak   Senbeta, Feyera ^al   Smith, Thomas B ^am   Utteridge, Timothy M A ^s   Watkins, James E ⁿ   Wilson, Rohan ^an   Williams, Stephen E ^a   Thomas, Chris D ^h   more..

^a JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b SMITHSONIAN TROPICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Panama)

^c Asociacion Armonia   (Bolivia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^e INSTITUTO DE ECOLOGÍA   (Mexico)

^f Evolutionsbiologie mit Phyletischem Museum   (Germany)

^g UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^h UNIVERSITY OF YORK   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND LIFE SCIENCES   (Austria)

^j UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^k JAGIELLONIAN UNIVERSITY   (Poland)

^l UNIVERSITY OF AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^m UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

ⁿ Colgate University ^*  (United States)

^o Flamingo Land Ltd   (United Kingdom)

^p UNIVERSITÉ DE LA RÉUNION   (France)

^q Wilderness Society Washington DC   (United States)

^r UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO   (Mexico)

^s ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS   (United Kingdom)

^t Columbus State University ^*  (United States)

^u France   (Germany)

^v MISSOURI BOTANICAL GARDEN   (United States)

^w MAKERERE UNIVERSITY   (Uganda)

^x UNIVERSITY OF BAYREUTH   (Germany)

^y UNIVERSITY OF GÖTTINGEN   (Germany)

^z UNIVERSIDAD DE COSTA RICA   (Costa Rica)

^aa University of Florida   (United States)

^ab PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA   (Colombia)

^ac UNIVERSIDAD VERACRUZANA   (Mexico)

^ad DEPARTMENT OF LIFE SCIENCES   (United Kingdom)

^ae STAATLICHES MUSEUM FÜR NATURKUNDE   (Germany)

^af EVERGREEN STATE COLLEGE   (United States)

^ag Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability   (United States)

^ah FIELD MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY   (United States)

^ai UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^aj UNIVERSITY OF PUERTO RICO RIO PIEDRAS   (Puerto Rico)

^ak STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^al ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY   (Ethiopia)

^am UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^an AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

more..

Author keywords

Africa; Asia Pacific; Biodiversity; Climate change; Elevational range; Endemism; Extinction; Global warming; Montane areas; Neotropics; Thermal tolerance; Tropical ecosystems

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; DATA QUALITY; ECTOTHERMY; ENDEMISM; EXTINCTION RISK; FUTURE PROSPECT; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; GEOGRAPHICAL REGION; GLOBAL WARMING; MOUNTAIN REGION; NEOTROPIC ECOZONE; TEMPERATURE TOLERANCE; TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT; VULNERABILITY;

AFRICA; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC RIM;

AMPHIBIA; AVES; MAMMALIA; REPTILIA; VERTEBRATA;

EID: 78751581551     PISSN: 00063207     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2010.10.010     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Addo-Bediako A.S., Chown S., Gaston K.J. Thermal tolerance, climatic variability and latitude. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 2000, 267:739-745.
2. Bachman S., Baker W.J., Brummitt N., Dransfield J., Moat J. Elevational gradients, area and tropical island diversity: an example from the palms of New Guinea. Ecography 2004, 27:299-310.
3. Balmford A. Extinction filters and current resilience: the significance of past selection pressures for conservation biology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 1996, 11:193-196.
4. Brooks T.M., Pimm S.L., Kapos V., Ravilious C. Threat from deforestation to montane and lowland birds and mammals in insular South-East Asia. Journal of Animal Ecology 1999, 68:1061-1078.
5. Chen I.-C., Shiu H.-J., Benedick S., Holloway J., Chey V., Barlow H., Hill J., Thomas C.D. Elevation increases in moth assemblages over 42 years on a tropical mountain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2009, 106:1479-1483.
6. Clark D.A., Piper S., Keeling C., Clark D.B. Tropical rain forest tree growth and atmospheric carbon dynamics linked to interannual temperature variation during 1984-2000. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2003, 100:5852-5857.
7. Cochrane M.A. Fire science for rainforests. Nature 2003, 421:913-919.
8. Colwell R.K., Brehm G., Cardelus C., Gilman A., Longino J. Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 2008, 322:258-261.
9. Deutsch C.A., Tewksbury J., Huey R.B., Sheldon K., Ghalambor C., Haak D., Martin P.R. Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2008, 105:6668-6672.
10. Dillon M.E., Wang G., Huey R.B. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming. Nature 2010, 467:704-707.
11. Feeley K.J., Wright S.J., Supardi M., Kassim A., Davies S. Decelerating growth in tropical forest trees. Ecology Letters 2007, 10:461-469.
12. Ferraz G., Nichols J.D., Hines J., Stouffer P., Bierregaard R., Lovejoy T.E. A large-scale deforestation experiment: effects of patch area and isolation on Amazon birds. Science 2007, 315:238-241.
13. Fjeldså J., Lambin E., Mertens B. Correlation between endemism and local ecoclimatic stability documented by comparing Andean bird distributions and remotely sensed land surface data. Ecography 1999, 22:63-78.
14. Fjeldså J., Lovett J. Geographical patterns of old and young species in African forest biota: the significance of specific montane areas as evolutionary centres. Biodiversity and Conservation 1997, 6:325-346.
15. Frey J., Bogan M., Yates T. Mountaintop island age determines species richness of boreal mammals in the American Southwest. Ecography 2007, 30:231-240.
16. Ghalambor C.K., Huey R.B., Martin P., Tewksbury J., Wang G. Are mountain passes higher in the tropics? Janzen's hypothesis revisited. Integrative and Comparative Biology 2006, 46:5-17.
17. Graham C., Moritz C., Williams S.E. Habitat history improves prediction of biodiversity in a rainforest fauna. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2006, 103:632-636.
18. Hansen J., Santo M., Ruedy R., Lo K., Lea D., Medina-Elizade M. Global temperature change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2006, 103:14288-14293.
19. Heaney L.R. Small mammal diversity along elevational gradients in the Philippines: an assessment of patterns and hypotheses. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2001, 10:15-39.
20. Hemp A., Beck E. Erica excelsa as a fire-tolerating component of Mt. Kilimanjaro's forests. Phytocoenology 2001, 31:449-475.
21. Hemp C., Hemp A., Wägele J. Biogeography, coenology, habitat and morphology of the East African genus Parasphena Bolivar 1884 (Orthoptera: Pyrgomorphidae) and the description of a new species from north-western Tanzania. Journal of Orthoptera Research 2009, 18:113-119.
22. Hertz P. Sensitivity to high temperatures in three West Indian grass anoles, with a review of heat sensitivity in the genus Anolis. Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology 1979, 63A:217-222.
23. Hilbert D.W., Bradford M., Parker T., Westcott D. Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtoniana) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming. Biological Conservation 2004, 116:367-377.
24. Hodkinson I.D. Terrestrial insects along elevation gradients: species and community responses to altitude. Biological Reviews 2005, 80:489-513.
25. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis 2001, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. van der Linden, D. Xiaosu (Eds.).
26. Huey R.B. Latitudinal pattern of between-altitude faunal similarity: mountains might be " higher" in the tropics. American Naturalist 1976, 112:225-254.
27. Huey R.B., Deutsch C., Tewksbury J., Vitt L., Hertz P., Álvarez H. Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 2009, 276:1939-1948.
28. Huey R.B., Webster T.P. Thermal biology of Anolis lizards in a complex fauna Cristatellus group on Puerto Rico. Ecology 1976, 57:985-994.
29. IPCC, 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/098.htm.
30. Jankowski J.E., Robinson S.K., Levey D.J. Squeezed at the top: interspecific aggression may constrain elevational ranges in tropical birds. Ecology 2010, 91:1877-1884.
31. Janzen D.H. Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics. American Naturalist 1967, 101:233-249.
32. Jiguet F., Julliard R., Thomas C.D., Dehorter O., Newson S., Couvet D. Thermal range predicts bird population resilience to extreme high temperatures. Ecology Letters 2006, 9:1321-1330.
33. Kattan G.H., Franco P. Bird diversity along elevational gradients in the Andes of Colombia: area and mass effects. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2004, 13:451-458.
34. Kessler M. Range size and its ecological correlates among the pteridophytes of Carrasco National Park, Bolivia. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2002, 11:89-102.
35. Kluge J., Bach K., Kessler M. Elevational distribution and zonation of tropical pteridophyte assemblages in Costa Rica. Basic and Applied Ecology 2008, 9:35-43.
36. Krockenberger, A., Kitching, R., Turton S., 2004. Environmental Crisis: Climate Change and Terrestrial Biodiversity in Queensland. CRC for Tropical Rainforest Ecology and Management, Cairns, Australia.
37. Laurance W.F. Forest-climate interactions in fragmented tropical landscapes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 2004, 359:345-352.
38. Laurance W.F. Global warming and amphibian declines in eastern Australia. Austral Ecology 2008, 33:1-9.
39. Laurance, W.F., 2009. Move Over, Polar Bear. New Scientist 10 November, p. 14.
40. Laurance W.F., Oliveira A.A., Laurance S.G., Condit R., Nascimento H., Sanchez-Thorin A., Lovejoy T., Andrade A., D'Angelo S., Dick C. Pervasive alteration of tree communities in undisturbed Amazonian forests. Nature 2004, 428:171-175.
41. Emerging Threats to Tropical Forests 2006, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. W.F. Laurance, C.A. Peres (Eds.).
42. Lewis S.L., Lopez-Gonzalez G., Sonke B., Affum-Baffoe K., Baker T.R., Ojo L.O., Phillips O.L., Reitsma J.M., White L., Comiskey J.A., Djuikouo K.M., Ewango C.E., Feldpausch T.R., Hamilton A.C., Gloor M., Hart T., Hladik A., Lloyd J., Lovett J.C., Makana J.R., Malhi Y., Mbago F.M., Ndangalasi H.J., Peacock J., Peh K.S., Sheil D., Sunderland T., Swaine M.D., Taplin J., Taylor D., Thomas S.C., Votere R., Woll R. Increasing carbon storage in intact African tropical forests. Nature 2009, 457:1003-1006.
43. MacArthur R.H., Diamond J.M., Karr J. Density compensation in island faunas. Ecology 1972, 53:330-342.
44. MacArthur R.H., Wilson E.O. The Theory of Island Biogeography 1967, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
45. MacKenzie D., Nichols J.D., Hines J., Knutson M., Franklin A. Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology 2003, 84:2200-2207.
46. McCain C.M. The mid-domain effect applied to elevational gradients: species richness of small mammals in Costa Rica. Journal of Biogeography 2004, 31:19-31.
47. McCain C.M. Vertebrate range sizes indicate that mountains may be 'higher' in the tropics. Ecology Letters 2009, 12:550-560.
48. Pearson R.G., Dawson T.P. Long-distance plant dispersal and habitat fragmentation: identifying conservation targets for spatial landscape planning under climate change. Biological Conservation 2005, 123:389-401.
49. Global Warming and Biological Diversity 1994, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut. R.L. Peters, T.E. Lovejoy (Eds.).
50. Phillips O.L., Malhi Y., Higuchi N., Laurance W.F., Nuñez P.V., Vasquez R.M., Laurance S.G., Ferreira L.V., Stern M., Brown S., Grace J. Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: evidence from long-term plots. Science 1998, 282:439-442.
51. Porter W.P., Gates D. Thermodynamic equilibria of animals with environment. Ecological Monographs 1969, 39:227-244.
52. Pough F.H. The advantages of ectothermy for tetrapods. American Naturalist 1980, 115:92-112.
53. Pounds J.A., Bustamente M., Coloma L., Consuegra J., Fogden M., Foster P., La Marca E., Masters K., Merino-Viteri A., Puschendorf R., Ron S., Sanchez-Azofeifa A., Still C., Young B. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 2006, 439:161-167.
54. Pounds J.A., Fogden M., Campbell J. Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 1999, 398:611-615.
55. Price T.D., Kirkpatrick M. Evolutionarily stable range limits set by interspecific competition. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 2009, 276:1429-1434.
56. Rahbek C. The relationship among area, elevation, and regional species richness in Neotropical birds. American Naturalist 1997, 149:875-902.
57. Raxworthy C.J., Pearson R.G., Rabibisoa N., Rakotondrazafy A., Ramanamanjato J., Raselimanana A., Wu S., Nussbaum R., Stone D. Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar. Global Change Biology 2008, 14:1703-1720.
58. Renjifo L.M., Servat G., Goerck J., Loiselle B., Blake J. Patterns of species composition and endemism in the northern Neotropics: a case for conservation of montane avifaunas. Ornithological Monographs 1997, 48:577-594.
59. Richardson B.A., Richardson M., Soto-Adames A. Separating the effects of forest type and elevation on the diversity of litter invertebrate communities in a humid tropical forest in Puerto Rico. Journal of Animal Ecology 2005, 74:926-936.
60. Ricketts T.H., Dinerstein E., Boucher T., Brooks T.M., Butchart S.H., Hoffmann M., Lamoreux J.F., Morrison J., Parr M., Pilgrim J.D., Rodrigues A.S., Sechrest W., Wallace G.E., Berlin K., Bielby J., Burgess N.D., Church D.R., Cox N., Knox D., Loucks C., Luck G.W., Master L.L., Moore R., Naidoo R., Ridgely R., Schatz G.E., Shire G., Strand H., Wettengel W., Wikramanayake E. Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2005, 102:18497-18501.
61. Ricklefs R.E., Cox G.C. Taxon cycles in the West Indian avifauna. American Naturalist 1972, 106:195-219.
62. Schneider C.J., Cunningham M., Moritz C. Comparative phylogeography and the history of endemic vertebrates in the wet tropics rain forests of Australia. Molecular Ecology 1998, 7:487-498.
63. Sekercioglu C.H., Schneider S., Fay J., Loarie S. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conservation Biology 2008, 22:140-150.
64. Stevens G.C. The elevational gradient in altitudinal range: an extension of Rapoport's latitudinal rule to altitude. American Naturalist 1992, 140:893-911.
65. Still C.J., Foster P., Schneider S. Simulating the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests. Nature 1999, 398:608-610.
66. Terborgh J. Bird species diversity on an Andean elevational gradient. Ecology 1977, 58:1007-1019.
67. Tewksbury J.J., Huey R.B., Deutsch C. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 2008, 320:1296-1297.
68. Thomas C.D. Extinction, colonization and metapopulations: environmental tracking by rare species. Conservation Biology 1994, 8:373-378.
69. Thomas C.D., Cameron A., Green R.E., Bakkenes M., Beaumont L.J., Collingham Y.C., Erasmus B.F., De Siqueira M.F., Grainger A., Hannah L., Hughes L., Huntley B., Van Jaarsveld A.S., Midgley G.F., Miles L., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Peterson A.T., Phillips O.L., Williams S.E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 2004, 427:145-148.
70. Thuiller W., Broennimann O., Hughes G., Akemades J., Midgley G., Corsi F. Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Global Change Biology 2006, 12:424-440.
71. van Berkum F.H. Latitudinal patterns of the thermal sensitivity of sprint speed in lizards. American Naturalist 1988, 132:327-343.
72. Vera C., Silvestri G., Liebmann B., Gonzalez P. Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models. Geophysical Research Letters 2006, 33:L13707. 10.1029/2006GL025759.
73. Voigt W., et al. Trophic levels are differentially sensitive to climate. Ecology 2003, 84:2444-2453.
74. Wake D.B., Vredenburg V.T. Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2008, 105:11466-11473.
75. Weathers W.W. Energetics and thermoregulation by small passerines of the humid, lowland tropics. Auk 1997, 113:341-353.
76. Williams J.W., Jackson S., Kutzbach J. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2007, 104:5738-5742.
77. Williams S.E., Bolitho E., Fox S. Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 2003, 270:1887-1892.
78. Williams S.E., Pearson R.G. Historical rainforest contractions, localized extinctions and patterns of vertebrate endemism in the rainforests of Australia's wet tropics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 1997, 264:709-716.
79. Williams, S.E., Shoo, L.P., Henriod, R., Pearson, R.G., 2009. Elevational gradients in assemblage structure and productivity for rainforest birds in the Australian wet tropics bioregion. Austral Ecology, doi:0.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02073.x.
80. Williams S.E., Shoo L.P., Isaac J., Hoffman A., Langham G. Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biology 2008, 6:e325. 10.1371/journal.pbio.0060325.
81. Winter J.W. Ecological specialization of mammals in Australian tropical and subtropical rain forest: refugial or ecological determinism?. Proceedings of the Ecological Society of Australia 1988, 15:127-138.
82. Wright S.J., Muller-Landau H., Schipper J. The future of tropical species on a warmer planet. Conservation Biology 2009, 6:1418-1426.