Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms

Volumn 92, Issue 2-3, 2010, Pages 201-207

  Rödder, Dennis ^a,b   Kielgast, Jos ^c   Lötters, Stefan ^b  

^a ZOOLOGISCHES FORSCHUNGSMUSEUM ALEXANDER KOENIG   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TRIER   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Amphibia; Anthropogenic future climate change; Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; Bioclimate; Chytridiomycosis; Global warming; Maxent; Species distribution model

Indexed keywords

AMPHIBIAN; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE SPREAD; FUNGUS; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; GLOBAL WARMING; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTION; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; ZOOGEOGRAPHY;

AMPHIBIA; ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISEASE; ARTICLE; BIODIVERSITY; CHYTRIDIOMYCETES; CLIMATE CHANGE; HOST PATHOGEN INTERACTION; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; MICROBIOLOGY; MYCOSIS; PHYSIOLOGY; TIME;

AMPHIBIANS; ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; CHYTRIDIOMYCOTA; CLIMATE CHANGE; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTIONS; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; MYCOSES; TIME FACTORS;

AMPHIBIA; BATRACHOCHYTRIUM DENDROBATIDIS; FUNGI; VERTEBRATA;

EID: 78650452464     PISSN: 01775103     EISSN: 16161580     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/dao02197     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Alford RA, Bradfield KS, Richards SJ (2007) Ecology: global warming and amphibian losses. Nature 447:E3-E4
2. Andre SE, Parker J, Briggs CJ (2008) Effect of temperature on host response to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in the mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa). J Wildl Dis 44:716-720
3. Araújo MB, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22:42-47
4. Araújo MB, Cabeza M, Thullier W, Hannah L, Williams PH (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Glob Change Biol 10:1618-1626
5. Bielby J, Cooper N, Cunningham AA, Garner TWJ, Purvis A (2008) Predicting susceptibility to future declines in the world's frogs. Conserv Lett 1:82-90
6. Bosch J, Carrascal LM, Duran L, Walker S, Fisher MC (2007) Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain; is there a link? Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 274:253-260
7. Busby JR (1991) BIOCLIM: a bioclimatic analysis and prediction system. In: Margules CR, Austin MP (eds) Nature conservation: cost effective biological surveys and data analysis. CSIRO, Melbourne, p 64-68
8. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudík M and others (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-151
9. Fisher MC, Garner TWJ, Walker SF (2009) Global emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and amphibian chytridiomycosis in space, time, and host. Annu Rev Microbiol 63:291-310
10. Flato GM, Boer GJ, Lee WG, McFarlane NA, Ramsden D, Reader MC, Weaver AJ (2000) The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate. Clim Dyn 16:451-467
11. Gascon C, Collins JP, Moore RD, Church DR, McKay JE, Mendelson JR III (2007) Amphibian conservation action plan. IUCN, Conservation International, Gland, Cambridge
12. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks HT and others (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16:147-168
13. Hernandez PA, Graham CH, Master LL, Albert DL (2006) The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography 29:773-785
14. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005a) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965-1978
15. Hijmans RJ, Guarino L, Jarvis A, O'Brien R and others (2005b) DIVA-GIS version 5.2 Manual. www.diva-gis.org/documentation
16. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2000) Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
17. Kielgast J, Rödder D, Veith M, Lötters S (2010) Widespread occurrence of the amphibian chytrid fungus in Kenya. Anim Conserv 13(Spec Iss 1):36-43
18. Kremen C, Cameron A, Moilanen A, Phillips SJ and others (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools. Science 320:222-226
19. Kriger KM, Hero JM (2007) Large-scale seasonal variation in the prevalence and severity of chytridiomycosis. J Zool 271:352-359
20. Kriger KM, Peregolou F, Hero JM (2007) Latitudinal variation in the prevalence and intensity of chytrid (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) infection in eastern Australia. Conserv Biol 21:1280-1290
21. Lafferty KD (2009) The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases. Ecology 90:888-900
22. Laurance WF (2008) Global warming and amphibian extinctions in eastern Australia. Austral Ecol 33:339-408
23. Levine RS, Peterson AT, Yorita KL, Carroll D, Damon IK, Reynolds MG (2007) Ecological niche and geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa. PLoS ONE 2: e176, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000176
24. Lips KR, Diffendorfer J, Mendelson III Jr, Sears MW (2008) Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines. PLoS Biol 6:e72, doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060072 (Pubitemid 351485590)
25. Lötters S, Rödder D, Bielby J, Bosch J and others (2008) Meeting the challenge of conserving Madagascar's megadiverse ampibians: addition of a risk assessment for the chytrid fungus. Available at http://biology. plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=read-response&doi=10.1371/journal.pbio. 0060118
26. Manel SP, Williams HC, Ormerod SJ (2001) Evaluating presence- absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. J Appl Ecol 38:921-931
27. Mendelson JR III, Lips KR, Gagliardo RW, Rabb GB and others (2006) Confronting amphibian declines and extinctions. Science 313:48
28. Nix H (1986) A biogeographic analysis of Australian elapid snakes. In: Longmore R (ed) Atlas of elapid snakes of Australia. Bureau of Flora and Fauna, Canberra, p 4-15
29. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:637-669
30. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42
31. Phillips SJ (2008) Transferability, sample selection bias and background data in presence-only modelling: a response to Peterson et al. (2007). Ecography 31:272-278
32. Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modelling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161-175
33. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231-259
34. Piotrowski JS, Annis SL, Longcore JE (2004) Physiology of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a chytrid pathogen of amphibians. Mycologia 96:9-15
35. Pounds JA, Coloma LA (2008) Beware the lone killer. Nature 2:57-59
36. Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA and others (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439: 161-167
37. Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA and others (2007) Global warming and amphibian losses; the proximate cause of frog declines? (Reply) Nature 447: E5-E6
38. Puschendorf R, Carnaval AC, VanDerWal J, Zumbado-Ulate H, Chaves G, Bolaños F, Alford RA (2009) Distribution models for the amphibian chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Costa Rica: proposing climatic refuges as a conservation tool. Divers Distrib 15:401-408
39. Rachowicz LJ, Knapp RA, Morgan JAT, Stice MJ, Vredenburg VT, Parker JM, Briggs CJ (2006) Emerging infectious disease as a proximate cause of amphibian mass mortality. Ecology 87:1671-1683
40. Rödder D, Lötters S (2009) Niche shift versus niche conservatism? Climatic characteristics of the native and invasive ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus). Glob Ecol Biogeogr 18:674-687
41. Rödder D, Veith M, Lötters S (2008) Environmental gradients explaining the prevalence and intensity of infection with the amphibian chytrid fungus: the host's perspective. Anim Conserv 11:513-517
42. Rödder D, Kielgast J, Bielby J, Schmidtlein S and others (2009a) Global amphibian extinction risk assessment for the panzootic chytrid fungus. Diversity 1:52-65
43. Rödder D, Schmidtlein S, Veith M, Lötters S (2009b) Alien invasive slider turtle in unpredicted habitat: a matter of niche shift or predictors studied? PLoS ONE 4:e7843, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007843
44. Rödder D, Kwet A, Lötters S (2009c) Translating natural history into geographic space: a macroecological perspective on the North American slider, Trachemys scripta (Reptilia, Cryptodira, Emydidae). J Nat Hist 43:2525-2536
45. Rohr JR, Raffel TR, Romansic JM, McCallum H, Hudson PJ (2008) Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:17436-17441
46. Ron SR (2005) Predicting the distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachytrium dendrobatidis in the New World. Biotropica 37:209-221
47. Seimon TA, Seimon A, Daszak P, Halloy SRP and others (2007) Upward range extension of Andean anurans and chytridiomycosis to extreme elevations in response to tropical deglaciation. Glob Change Biol 13:288-299
48. Skerratt LF, Berger L, Speare R, Cashins S and others (2007) Spread of chytridiomycosis has caused the rapid global decline and extinction of frogs. EcoHealth 4:125-134
49. Stuart S, Hoffmann M, Chanson J, Cox N, Berridge R, Ramani P, Young B (2008) Threatened amphibians of the world. Lynx Edicions, Barcelona
50. Swets JA (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240:1285-1293
51. Wake DB, Vredenburg VT (2008) Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A review from the world of amphibians. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:11466-11473
52. Woodhams DC, Alford RA (2005) Ecology of chytridiomycosis in rainforest stream frog assemblages of tropical Queensland. Conserv Biol 19:1449-1459
53. Woodhams DC, Alford RA, Briggs CJ, Johnson M, Rollins-Smith LA (2008) Life-history trade-offs influence disease in changing climates: strategies of an amphibian pathogen. Ecology 89:1627-1639