Addressing uncertainty in fecal indicator bacteria dark inactivation rates

Water Research

Volumn 45, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 652-664

  Gronewold, Andrew D ^a   Myers, Luke ^c   Swall, Jenise L ^b   Noble, Rachel T ^c  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

^c University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian; Decay rate; Fecal contamination; MPN; Water quality modeling

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CONTAMINATION; DECAY (ORGANIC); DECISION MAKING; DECISION THEORY; HEALTH RISKS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RIVER POLLUTION; STATISTICAL TESTS; SURFACE WATERS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER QUALITY;

BAYESIAN; COLONY FORMING UNITS; DECAY RATE; FAECAL INDICATOR BACTERIA; FECAL CONTAMINATION; MODEL FORECASTS; MOST PROBABLE NUMBER; POTENTIAL THREATS; UNCERTAINTY; WATER QUALITY MODELLING;

ESCHERICHIA COLI;

BACTERIUM; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BIOINDICATOR; ESTUARINE POLLUTION; HEALTH RISK; PUBLIC HEALTH; SURFACE WATER; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER COLUMN; WATER QUALITY;

ARTICLE; BACTERIAL COUNT; BACTERIUM CONTAMINATION; BAYES THEOREM; CALIBRATION; EMPIRICISM; ENTEROCOCCUS; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; ESCHERICHIA COLI; ESTUARY; FECES MICROFLORA; MOST PROBABLE NUMBER; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; WATER QUALITY; WATER SAMPLING; WATER SUPPLY;

NEUSE ESTUARY; NORTH CAROLINA; UNITED STATES;

ANIMALIA; ENTEROCOCCUS; ESCHERICHIA COLI;

EID: 78650418410     PISSN: 00431354     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2010.08.029     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. An K.H., Lassus P., Maggi P., Bardouil M., Truquet P. Dinoflagellate cyst changes and winter environmental-conditions in Vilaine Bay, Southern Brittany (France). Botanica Marina 1992, 35(1):61-67.
2. Ashbolt N.J., Grohmann G.S., Kueh C.S.W. Significance of specific bacterial pathogens in the assessment of polluted receiving waters of Sydney, Australia. Water Science and Technology 1993, 27(3/4):449-452.
3. Auer M.T., Niehaus S.L. Modeling fecal coliform Bacteria-I. Field and laboratory Determination of loss Kinetics. Water Research 1993, 27(4):693-701.
4. Bayes T. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 1763, 53:370-418.
5. Bekins B.A., Godsy E.M., Warren E. Distribution of microbial physiologic types in an aquifer contaminated by crude oil. Microbial Ecology 1999, 37:263.
6. Benham B.L., Baffaut C., Zeckoski R.W., Mankin K.R., Pachepsky Y.A., Sadeghi A.M., Brannan K.M., Soupir M.L., Habersack M.J. Modeling bacteria fate and transport in watersheds to support TMDLs. Transactions of the ASABE 2006, 49(4):987-1002.
7. Bernardo J.M., Smith A.F.M. Bayesian Theory 1994, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., West Sussex, UK.
8. Berry D.A. Statistics: A Bayesian Perspective 1996, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California.
9. Best D.J., Rayner J.C.W. A comparison of the MPN and Fisher-Yates estimators for the density of organisms. Biometrical Journal 1985, 27(2):167-172.
10. Boehm A., Ashbolt N., Colford J., Dunbar L., Fleming L., Gold M., Hansel J., Hunter P., Ichida A., McGee C., Soller J.A., Weisberg S.B. A sea change ahead for recreational water quality criteria. Journal of Water and Health 2009, 7(1):9-20.
11. Bolstad W.M. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics 2004, Wiley-Interscience, Hoboken, N.J.
12. Borsuk M., Clemen R., Maguire L., Reckhow K. Stakeholder values and scientific modeling in the Neuse River watershed. Group Decision and Negotiation 2001, 10(4):355-373.
13. Borsuk M., Stow C. Bayesian parameter estimation in a mixed-order model of BOD decay. Water Research 2000, 34(6):1830-1836.
14. Bowie G., Mills W., Porcella D., Campbell C., Chamberlin C. Rates, Constants, and Kinetics Formulations in Surface Water Quality Modeling 1985, United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development Environmental Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C. second ed.
15. Chambers J.M., Hastie T.J. Statistical Models in S 1991, CRC Press, Inc., Boca Raton, FL, USA.
16. Christian R.R., Pipes W.O. Frequency distributions of coliforms in water distribution systems. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 1983, 45(2):603-609.
17. Eckford R.E., Fedorak P.M. Applying a most probable number method for enumerating planktonic, dissimilatory, ammonium-producing, nitrate-reducing bacteria in oil field waters. Canadian Journal of Microbiology 2005, 51(8):725-729.
18. Efron B., Tibshirani R.J. An Introduction to the Bootstrap 1993, Chapman & Hall/CRC.
19. El-Shaarawi A.H., Esterby S.R., Dutka B.J. Bacterial density in water determined by Poisson or negative binomial distributions. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 1981, 41(1):107-116.
20. Fegan N., Higgs G., Vanderlinde P., Desmarchelier P. Enumeration of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle faeces using most probable number technique and automated immunomagnetic separation. Letters in Applied Microbiology 2004, 38(1):56-59.
21. Ferguson C., Husman A.M.D., Altavilla N., Deere D., Ashbolt N. Fate and transport of surface water pathogens in watersheds. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 2003, 33(3):299-361.
22. Fischer H.B. Mixing in Inland and Coastal Waters 1979, Academic Press, New York.
23. Food and Drug Administration and Interstate Shellfish Sanitation Conference, 2005. National Shellfish Sanitation Program - guide for the control of molluscan shellfish.
24. Fries J., Characklis G., Noble R. Attachment of fecal indicator bacteria to particles in the Neuse River Estuary, NC. Journal of Environmental Engineering 2006, 132:1338.
25. Fries J., Characklis G., Noble R. Sediment-water exchange of Vibrio sp. and fecal indicator bacteria: implications for persistence and transport in the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, USA. Water Research 2008, 42(4-5):941-950.
26. Garthright W.E. Bias in the logarithm of microbial density estimates from serial dilutions. Biometrical Journal 1993, 35(3):299-314.
27. Garthright W.E. A Bayesian analysis of serial dilutions offers a worse positive bias than the MPN and proposes an inappropriate interval estimate. Food Microbiology 1997, 14(5):515-517.
28. Gelman A., Carlin J.B., Stern H.S., Rubin D.B. Bayesian data analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC 2004, Florida, Boca Raton.
29. Gelman A., Hill J. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models 2007, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
30. Ghinsberg R.C., Dov L.B., Sheinberg Y., Nitzan Y., Rogol M. Monitoring of selected bacteria and fungi in sand and sea-water along the Tel-aviv coast. Microbios 1994, 77(310):29-40.
31. Griffin D., Lipp E., McLaughlin M., Rose J. Marine recreation and public health microbiology: quest for the ideal indicator. BioScience 2001, 51(10):817-826.
32. Gronewold A.D., Borsuk M.E., Wolpert R.L., Reckhow K.H. An assessment of fecal indicator bacteria-based water quality standards. Environmental Science & Technology 2008, 42(13):4676-4682.
33. Gronewold A.D., Qian S.S., Wolpert R.L., Reckhow K.H. Calibrating and validating bacterial water quality models: a Bayesian approach. Water Research 2009, 42:2688-2698.
34. Gronewold A.D., Wolpert R.L. Modeling the relationship between most probable number (MPN) and colony-forming unit (CFU) estimates of fecal coliform concentration. Water Research 2008, 42(13):3327-3334.
35. Harris A.S.D., Jones K.J., Lewis J. An assessment of the accuracy and reproducibility of the most probable number (MPN) technique in estimating numbers of nutrient stressed diatoms in sediment samples. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 1998, 231(1):21-30.
36. Huang J.J., McBean E.A. Using Bayesian statistics to estimate the coefficients of a two-component second-order chlorine bulk decay model for a water distribution system. Water Research 2007, 41(2):287-294.
37. Hurley M.A., Roscoe M.E. Automated statistical analysis of microbial enumeration by dilution series. Journal of Applied Bacteriology 1983, 55(1):159-164.
38. Ihaka R., Gentleman R. R: a language for data analysis and graphics. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 1996, 5(3):299-314.
39. Larrazabal M.E., Lassus P., Maggi P., Bardouil M. Modern dinoflagellate cysts in Vilaine Bay-Southern Brittain (France). Cryptogamie Algologie 1990, 11(3):171-185.
40. Lunn D.J., Thomas A., Best N., Spiegelhalter D. WinBUGS-A Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Statistics and Computing 2000, 10(4):325-337.
41. McBride, G.B., 2003. Preparing exact most probable number (MPN) tables using occupancy theory, and accompanying measures of uncertainty. NIWA Technical Report 121, 62.
42. Menyah M.K., Sato K. A proposal for re-evaluating the most probable number procedure for estimating numbers of Bradyrhizobium spp. Biology and Fertility of Soils 1996, 23(2):110-112.
43. Mostaghimi S., Brannan K., Dillaha T. Fecal coliform TMDL development: Case study and ramifications. Water Resources Update 2002, 122:27-33.
44. National Research Council, 2001. Assessing the TMDL approach to water quality management.
45. Neumann C.M., Harding A.K., Sherman J.M. Oregon Beach monitoring program: bacterial exceedances in marine and freshwater creeks/outfall samples, October 2002-April 2005. Marine Pollution Bulletin 2006, 52(10):1270-1277.
46. Noble R., Lee I., Schiff K. Inactivation of indicator micro-organisms from various sources of faecal contamination in seawater and freshwater. Journal of Applied Microbiology 2004, 96(3):464-472.
47. Noble R.T., Moore D.F., Leecaster M.K., McGee C.D., Weisberg S.B. Comparison of total coliform, fecal coliform, and enterococcus bacterial indicator response for ocean recreational water quality testing. Water Research 2003, 37(7):1637-1643.
48. Noble R.T., Weisberg S.B., Leecaster M.K., McGee C.D., Ritter K.J., Walker K.O., Vainik P.M. Comparison of beach bacterial water quality indicator measurement methods. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2003, 81(1):301-312.
49. Papen H., von Berg R. A most probable number method (MPN) for the estimation of cell numbers of heterotrophic nitrifying bacteria in soil. Plant and Soil 1998, 199(1):123-130.
50. Press S.J. Subjective and Objective Bayesian Statistics: Principles, Models, and Applications 2003, Wiley-Interscience, Hoboken, NJ.
51. Reckhow K.H., Chapra S.C. Confirmation of water quality models. Ecological Modelling 1983, 20(2-3):113-133.
52. Sinton L.W., Finlay R.K., Lynch P.A. Sunlight inactivation of fecal Bacteriophages and bacteria in sewage-polluted seawater. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 1999, 65(8):3605-3613.
53. Thomann R.V., Mueller J.A. Principles of Surface Water Quality Modeling and Control 1987, Harper & Row, New York.
54. Weisberg S. Applied Linear Regression. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics 2005, Wiley-Interscience, Hoboken, N.J. third ed.
55. Woodward R.L. How probable is the most probable number?. Journal of the American Water Works Association 1957, 49(1):1060-1068.