Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 96, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 64-74

  Aven, Terje ^a   Zio, Enrico ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF STAVANGER   (Norway)

^b ECOLE CENTRALE PARIS   (France)

^c POLITECNICO DI MILANO   (Italy)

Author keywords

Decision making; Risk assessment; Uncertainty representations

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKERS; EVIDENCE THEORIES; INTERVAL PROBABILITY; PROBABILITY THEORY; UNCERTAINTY REPRESENTATION;

DECISION MAKING;

RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 78649330703     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.001     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (76)

1. T. Aven Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management Reliability Engineering and System Safety 95 2010 195 201
2. National Research Council Understanding risk: informing decisions in a democratic society 1996 National Academy Press Washington, DC
3. S. Jasanoff Risk management and political culture 1986 Russell Sage Foundation N.Y
4. S. Jasanoff Science at the bar 1995 Harvard University Press
5. G. Apostolakis The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems Science 250 1990 1359 1364
6. S. Ferson, and Ginnzburg Different methods are needed to propage ignorance and variability Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54 1996 133 144
7. J. Berger An overview of robust Bayesian analysis Test 3 1994 5 124
8. A. Dempster Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping Annals of Mathematical Statistics 38 1967 325 339
9. G. Shafer A mathematical theory of evidence 1976 Princeton University Press Princeton
10. D. Dubois, and H. Prade Possibility theory 1988 Plenum Press New York
11. D. Dubois Possibility theory and statistical reasoning Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 51 2006 47 69
12. R.P. Rechard Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment Risk Analysis 19 5 1999 763 807
13. R.P. Rechard Historical background on performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant Reliability Engineering and System Safety 69 3 2000 5 46
14. NRC. Reactor safety study, an assessment of accident risks. Wash 1400. Report NUREG-75/014. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 1975.
15. E. Zio Reliability engineering: old problems and new challenges Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94 2009 125 141
16. Apostolakis GE. PRA/QRA: an historical perspective. In: 2006 Probabilistic/quantitative risk assessment workshop, Taiwan, 2930 November 2006.
17. Farmer FR. The growth of reactor safety criteria in the United Kingdom. In: Anglo-Spanish power symposium, Madrid, 1964.
18. B.J. Garrick, and W.C. Gekler Reliability analysis of nuclear power plant protective systems 1967 1967 USAtomic Energy Commission HN-190
19. NRC. Severe accident risks: an assessment for five U.S. nuclear power plants. NUREG-1150, vols. 13. Washington, DC: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Division of Systems Research; 19901991.
20. R.J. Breeding, J.C. Helton, E.D. Gorham, and F.T. Harper Summary description of the methods used in the probabilistic risk assessments for NUREG-1150 Nuclear Engineering and Design 135 1 1992 1 27
21. NASA Probabilistic risk assessment procedures guide for NASA managers and practitioners 2002 NASA
22. T. Aven Foundations of risk analysis 2003 Wiley NJ
23. T. Bedford, and R. Cooke Probabilistic risk analysis. Foundations and methods 2001 Cambridge University Publishing Ltd. Cambridge
24. E.J. Henley, and H. Kumamoto Probabilistic risk assessment 1992 IEEE Press New York
25. S. Kaplan, and B.J. Garrick On the quantitative definition of risk Risk Analysis 1 1981 11 27
26. N.J. McCormick Reliability and risk analysis 1981 Academic Press New York
27. NUREG. PRA procedures guide. NUREG/CR-2300, vols. 1&2, January 1983.
28. Z. Mohaghegh, R. Kazemi, and A. Mosleh Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: a hybrid technique formalization Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94 2009 2009 1000 1018
29. B. de Finetti Fondamenti logici del ragionamento probabilistico Bollettinodell'Unione Matematica Italiana 9 1930 258 261
30. N. Singpurwalla Reliability and risk. A Bayesian perspective 2006 Wiley NJ
31. D.V. Lindley The philosophy of statistics The Statistician 49 3 2000 293 337
32. W. North Comments on Aven's paper Risk Analysis 30 2010 377 380
33. T. Aven On the need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability Risk Analysis. With Discussion 30 3 2010 354 360 and 3814
34. J.C. Helton Treatment of uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems Risk Analysis 14 1994 483 511
35. J.C. Helton, J.D. Johnson, C.J. Sallaberry, and C.B. Storlie Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis Reliability Engineering & System Safety 91 2006 1175 1209
36. D.G. Cacuci, and M.A. Ionescu-Bujor Comparative review of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale systemsII: Statistical methods Nuclear Science and Engineering 147 3 2004 204 217
37. T. Nilsen, and T. Aven Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis Reliability Engineering & Systems Safety 79 2003 309 317
38. J. Devooght Model uncertainty and model inaccuracy Reliab Engng Syst Safety 59 1998 171 185
39. E. Zio, and G.E. Apostolakis Two methods for the structured assessment of model uncertainty by experts in performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories Reliab Engng Syst Safety 54 1996 225 241
40. Parry, G, Drouin, MT. Risk-informed regulatory decision-making at the U.S. NRC: dealing with model uncertainty. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2009.
41. G. Parry, and P.W. Winter Characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis Nuclear Safety 22 1 1981 28 42
42. F.O. Hoffman, and J.S. Hammonds Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: the need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability Risk Analysis 14 5 1994 707 712
43. J.C. Helton, W.L. Oberkampf, Special issue reliab eng syst safety 85 2004 1 369
44. J.C. Helton, and W.L. Oberkampf Guest editorial: alternative representation of uncertainty Reliability Engineering and System Safety 85 2004 1 10
45. B. de Finetti Theory of probability 1974 Wiley New York
46. J.M. Bernardo, and A.F.M. Smith Bayesian theory 1994 Wiley Chichester
47. M.E. Pat-Cornell Uncertainties in risk analysis: six levels of treatment Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54 23 1996 95 111
48. R. Flage, T. Aven, and E. Zio Alternative representations of uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis review and discussion S. Martorell, C. Guedes Soares, J. Barnett, Safety, reliability and risk analysis. Theory, methods and applications. Proceedings of the European safety and reliability conference 2009 (ESREL 2009) Valencia, Spain, 2225 September 2008 2009 CRC Press London 2081 2091
49. D. Dubois Representation, propagation and decision issues in risk analysis under incomplete probabilistic information Risk Analysis 30 2010 361 368
50. R.L. Winkler Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment Reliability Engineering and System Safety 85 1996 127 132
51. B. Bergman Conceptualistic pragmatism: a framework for Bayesian analysis? IIE Transactions 41 2009 86 93
52. T. Aven, and B. Heide Reliability and validity of risk analysis Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94 2009 1862 1868
53. S.G. Reid Acceptable risk D.I. Blockley, Engineering safety 1992 McGraw-Hill New York 138 166
54. A. Stirling Science, precaution and risk assessment: towards more measured and constructive policy debate European Molecular Biology Organisation Reports 8 2007 309 315
55. J. Tickner, and D. Kriebel The role of science and precaution in environmental and public health policy E. Fisher, J. Jones, R. von Schomberg, Implementing the precautionary principle 2006 Edward Elgar Publishing Northampton, MA, USA
56. O. Renn Three decades of risk research: accomplishments and new challenges Journal of Risk Research 1 1 1998 49 71
57. J.C. Helton, J.D. Johnson, and W.L. Oberkampf An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions Reliability Engineering and System Safety 85 13 2004 39 71
58. F.J. Groen, and A. Mosleh Foundations of probabilistic inference with uncertain evidence International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39 2005 49 83
59. C. Baudrit, D. Dubois, and D. Guyonnet Joint propagation of probabilistic and possibilistic information in risk assessment IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 14 2006 593 608
60. P. Baraldi, and E. Zio A combined Monte Carlo and possibilistic approach to uncertainty propagation in event tree analysis Risk Analysis 28 5 2008 1309 1325
61. R. Flage, P. Baraldi, F. Ameruso, E. Zio, and T. Aven Handling epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis by probabilistic and possibilistic approaches R. Bris, C. Guedes Soares, S. Martorell, Reliability, risk and safety: theory and applications. supplement proceedings of the European safety and reliability conference 2009 (ESREL 2009) Prague, Czech Republic, 710 September 2009 2010 CRC Press London 1761 1768
62. Flage R, Baraldi P, Zio E, Aven T. Probabilistic and possibilistic treatment of epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis. Submitted for publication.
63. T. Aven Risk analysis 2008 Wiley NJ
64. T. Aven A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 93 2008 768 775
65. T. Aven On how to define, understand and describe risk Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 95 6 2010 623 631
66. G.E. Apostolakis How useful is quantitative risk assessment? Risk Analysis 24 2004 515 520
67. T. Aven Misconceptions of risk 2010 Wiley Chichester
68. A. Saltelli, M. Ratto, T. Andres, F. Campolongo, J. Cariboni, D. Gatelli, M. Saisana, and S. Tarantolla Global sensitivity analysis: the primer 2008 Wiley New York
69. H.C. Frey, and S.R. Patil Identification and review of sensitivity analysis methods Risk Analysis 22 3 2002 553 578
70. P. Walley Statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities 1991 Chapman and Hall New York
71. D.V. Lindley Understanding uncertainty 2006 Wiley Hoboken, NJ
72. G. Shafer Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 4 1990 323 362
73. J.C. Helton, and D.E. Burmaster Specuial issue on treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54 23 1996
74. A. Mosleh, and V.M. Bier Uncertaity about probability: a reconciliation with the subjectivist viewpoint IEEE Trans. on Systems. Man and Cyber. Part A: Systems ansd Humans 26 1996 303 310
75. Coolen FPA, Utkin LV. Imprecise probability: a concise overview. In: Aven T, Vinnem JE. edtors. Risk, reliability and societal safety: proceedings of the European safety and reliability conference (ESREL), Stavanger, Norway, 2527 June 2007. London: Taylor & Francis, 195966.
76. M.B. Anoop, and K.B. Rao Determination of bounds on failure probability in the presence of hybrid uncertainties Sadhana 33 2008 753 765