메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 54, Issue 2-3, 1996, Pages 133-144

Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CALCULATIONS; ERRORS; NUMERICAL METHODS; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY; STATISTICAL METHODS;

EID: 0030289763     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00071-3     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (528)

References (64)
  • 4
    • 0028131950 scopus 로고
    • Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: The need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability
    • Hoffman, F.O. & Hammonds, J.S., Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: the need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability. Risk Anal., 14 (1994) 707-712.
    • (1994) Risk Anal. , vol.14 , pp. 707-712
    • Hoffman, F.O.1    Hammonds, J.S.2
  • 5
    • 0028148543 scopus 로고
    • Understanding uncertainty
    • Rowe, W.D., Understanding uncertainty. Risk Anal., 14 (1994) 743-750.
    • (1994) Risk Anal. , vol.14 , pp. 743-750
    • Rowe, W.D.1
  • 9
    • 0004293209 scopus 로고
    • Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey
    • Moore, R.E., Interval analysis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1966.
    • (1966) Interval Analysis
    • Moore, R.E.1
  • 14
    • 0011729197 scopus 로고
    • A survey of uncertain and approximate inference
    • (eds L. Zadeh & J. Kacprzyk), John Wiley and Sons, New York
    • Neapolitan, R.E., A survey of uncertain and approximate inference. In Fuzzy Logic for the Management of Uncertainty, (eds L. Zadeh & J. Kacprzyk), John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1992, pp. 55-82.
    • (1992) Fuzzy Logic for the Management of Uncertainty , pp. 55-82
    • Neapolitan, R.E.1
  • 15
    • 0002282678 scopus 로고
    • Probability, frequency and reasonable expectation
    • Cox, R.T., Probability, frequency and reasonable expectation. Am. J. Physics, 14 (1946) 1-13.
    • (1946) Am. J. Physics , vol.14 , pp. 1-13
    • Cox, R.T.1
  • 16
    • 84990553379 scopus 로고
    • An inquiry into computer understanding (with responses)
    • Cheeseman, P., An inquiry into computer understanding (with responses). Computational Intelligence, 4 (1988) 0.
    • (1988) Computational Intelligence , vol.4
    • Cheeseman, P.1
  • 17
    • 0002066122 scopus 로고
    • Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability
    • Lindley, D.V., Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability. Int. Stat. Rev., 50 (1982) 1-26.
    • (1982) Int. Stat. Rev. , vol.50 , pp. 1-26
    • Lindley, D.V.1
  • 18
    • 0001096846 scopus 로고
    • Bivariate distributions with given marginals
    • Whitt, W., Bivariate distributions with given marginals. Annals of Stat., 4 (1976) 1280-1289.
    • (1976) Annals of Stat. , vol.4 , pp. 1280-1289
    • Whitt, W.1
  • 20
    • 0002885750 scopus 로고
    • Naive Monte Carlo methods yield dangerous underestimates of tail probabilities
    • Sandia National Laboratories, SAND94-2364, (ed. J.A. Cooper)
    • Ferson, S., Naive Monte Carlo methods yield dangerous underestimates of tail probabilities. In Proc. High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium, Sandia National Laboratories, SAND94-2364, (ed. J.A. Cooper), 1994, pp.507-514.
    • (1994) Proc. High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium , pp. 507-514
    • Ferson, S.1
  • 21
    • 0001503499 scopus 로고
    • Best-possible bounds for the distribution of a sum - A problem of Kolmogorov
    • Frank, M.J., Nelson, R.B. & Schweizer, B., Best-possible bounds for the distribution of a sum - a problem of Kolmogorov. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 74 (1987) 199-211.
    • (1987) Probability Theory and Related Fields , vol.74 , pp. 199-211
    • Frank, M.J.1    Nelson, R.B.2    Schweizer, B.3
  • 22
    • 0002063018 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic arithmetic I: Numerical methods for calculating convolutions and dependency bounds
    • Williamson, R.C. & Downs, T., Probabilistic arithmetic I: numerical methods for calculating convolutions and dependency bounds. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning, 4 (1990) 89-158.
    • (1990) Int. J. Approximate Reasoning , vol.4 , pp. 89-158
    • Williamson, R.C.1    Downs, T.2
  • 23
    • 0029255659 scopus 로고
    • Conservative uncertainty propagation in environmental risk assessments
    • ASTM STP 1218, (eds J.S. Hughes, G.R. Biddinger & E. Mones) American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia
    • Ferson, S. & Long, T.F., Conservative uncertainty propagation in environmental risk assessments. In Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment - Third Volume, ASTM STP 1218, (eds J.S. Hughes, G.R. Biddinger & E. Mones) American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, 1995, pp.97-110.
    • (1995) Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment - Third Volume , pp. 97-110
    • Ferson, S.1    Long, T.F.2
  • 25
    • 11944266539 scopus 로고
    • Information theory and statistical mechanics
    • Jaynes, E.T., Information theory and statistical mechanics. Physical Rev., 106 (1957) 620-630.
    • (1957) Physical Rev. , vol.106 , pp. 620-630
    • Jaynes, E.T.1
  • 27
    • 0002260533 scopus 로고
    • Where do we stand on maximum entropy?
    • (eds R.D. Levine & M. Tribus) MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts
    • Jaynes, E.T., Where do we stand on maximum entropy? In The Maximum Entropy Formalism, (eds R.D. Levine & M. Tribus) MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1979.
    • (1979) The Maximum Entropy Formalism
    • Jaynes, E.T.1
  • 29
    • 0028171804 scopus 로고
    • Development of human exposure-factor distributions using maximum-entropy inference
    • Lee, R.C. & Wright, W.E., Development of human exposure-factor distributions using maximum-entropy inference. J. Exposure Anal. & Environ. Epidemiology, 4 (1994) 329-341.
    • (1994) J. Exposure Anal. & Environ. Epidemiology , vol.4 , pp. 329-341
    • Lee, R.C.1    Wright, W.E.2
  • 30
    • 0000587795 scopus 로고
    • Towards a frequentist theory of upper and lower probability
    • Walley, P. & Fine, T.L., Towards a frequentist theory of upper and lower probability. Annals of Stat., 10 (1982) 741-761.
    • (1982) Annals of Stat. , vol.10 , pp. 741-761
    • Walley, P.1    Fine, T.L.2
  • 31
    • 1942434071 scopus 로고
    • Bayes-like decision making with upper and lower probabilities
    • Wolfenson, M. & Fine, T.L., Bayes-like decision making with upper and lower probabilities. J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 77 (1982) 80-88.
    • (1982) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.77 , pp. 80-88
    • Wolfenson, M.1    Fine, T.L.2
  • 32
    • 0022832690 scopus 로고
    • Interval-based decisions for reasoning systems
    • (eds L.N. Kanal & J.F. Lemmer) Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam
    • Loui, R.P., Interval-based decisions for reasoning systems. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, (eds L.N. Kanal & J.F. Lemmer) Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 1986, pp.459-472.
    • (1986) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence , pp. 459-472
    • Loui, R.P.1
  • 33
    • 0022825722 scopus 로고
    • An inequality paradigm for probabilistic reasoning
    • (eds L.N. Kanal & J.F. Lemmer) Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam
    • Grosof, B.N., An inequality paradigm for probabilistic reasoning. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, (eds L.N. Kanal & J.F. Lemmer) Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 1986, pp.259-275.
    • (1986) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence , pp. 259-275
    • Grosof, B.N.1
  • 35
    • 0042721538 scopus 로고
    • Computing probability intervals under independency constraints
    • van der Gaag, L.C., Computing probability intervals under independency constraints. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 6 (1991) 457-466.
    • (1991) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence , vol.6 , pp. 457-466
    • Van Der Gaag, L.C.1
  • 36
    • 38249008516 scopus 로고
    • Interval probability propagation
    • Tessem, B., Interval probability propagation. Int. J. Approx. Reas., 7 (1992) 95-120.
    • (1992) Int. J. Approx. Reas. , vol.7 , pp. 95-120
    • Tessem, B.1
  • 37
    • 0343061708 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Whereof one cannot speak: When input distributions are unknown
    • to appear
    • Ferson, S., Ginzburg, L. & Akçakaya, H.R. Whereof one cannot speak: when input distributions are unknown. Risk Analysis (to appear).
    • Risk Analysis
    • Ferson, S.1    Ginzburg, L.2    Akçakaya, H.R.3
  • 38
    • 0003764410 scopus 로고
    • PRA procedures guide: A guide to the performance of probabilistic risk assessments for nuclear power plants
    • National Technical Information Service, Washington
    • Hickman, J.W., PRA procedures guide: a guide to the performance of probabilistic risk assessments for nuclear power plants. NUREG/CR-2300-V1 and -V2, National Technical Information Service, Washington, 1983.
    • (1983) NUREG/CR-2300-V1 and -V2
    • Hickman, J.W.1
  • 39
    • 0019070856 scopus 로고
    • Common cause failure - A dilemma in perspective
    • Smith, A.M. & Watson, I.A., Common cause failure - a dilemma in perspective. Reliab. Engng, 1 (1980) 127-142.
    • (1980) Reliab. Engng , vol.1 , pp. 127-142
    • Smith, A.M.1    Watson, I.A.2
  • 40
    • 0027404214 scopus 로고
    • Lack of total independence of uncertainty factors (UFs): Implications for the size of the total uncertainty factor
    • Calabrese, E.J. & Gilbert, C.E., Lack of total independence of uncertainty factors (UFs): implications for the size of the total uncertainty factor. Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology, 17 (1993) 44-51.
    • (1993) Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology , vol.17 , pp. 44-51
    • Calabrese, E.J.1    Gilbert, C.E.2
  • 42
    • 0003638978 scopus 로고
    • Some misconceptions about entropy
    • (eds B. Buck & V.A. Macauley), Clarendon Press, Oxford
    • Gull, S.F., Some misconceptions about entropy. In Maximum Entropy in Action, (eds B. Buck & V.A. Macauley), Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1991.
    • (1991) Maximum Entropy in Action
    • Gull, S.F.1
  • 47
    • 84987179314 scopus 로고
    • Estimating uncertainty in physical measurements, observational and environmental studies: Lessons from trends in nuclear data
    • IEEE Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, California
    • Shlyakhter, A., Shlyakhter, I., Broido, C. & Wilson, R., Estimating uncertainty in physical measurements, observational and environmental studies: Lessons from trends in nuclear data. In Proc. Second Int. Symp. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, IEEE Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, California, 1993, pp.310-317.
    • (1993) Proc. Second Int. Symp. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis , pp. 310-317
    • Shlyakhter, A.1    Shlyakhter, I.2    Broido, C.3    Wilson, R.4
  • 48
    • 0023523194 scopus 로고
    • Integrating uncertainty and interindividual variability in environmental risk assessments
    • Bogen, K.T. & Spear, R.C., Integrating uncertainty and interindividual variability in environmental risk assessments. Risk Anal., 7 (1987) 427-436.
    • (1987) Risk Anal. , vol.7 , pp. 427-436
    • Bogen, K.T.1    Spear, R.C.2
  • 49
    • 0028147844 scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and variability in human exposures to soil contaminants through home-grown food: A Monte Carlo assessment
    • McKone, T.E., Uncertainty and variability in human exposures to soil contaminants through home-grown food: a Monte Carlo assessment. Risk Anal., 14 (1994) 449-463.
    • (1994) Risk Anal. , vol.14 , pp. 449-463
    • McKone, T.E.1
  • 50
    • 0028149336 scopus 로고
    • Assessment of variability and uncertainty distributions for practical risk analyses
    • Hattis, D. & Burmaster, D.E., Assessment of variability and uncertainty distributions for practical risk analyses. Risk Anal., 14 (1994) 713-730.
    • (1994) Risk Anal. , vol.14 , pp. 713-730
    • Hattis, D.1    Burmaster, D.E.2
  • 51
    • 30244444940 scopus 로고
    • Centre for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, US Food and Drug Administration, Washington
    • Carrington, C.D. & Bolger, M., Risk Assessment for Contaminants in Food, Centre for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, US Food and Drug Administration, Washington, 1995.
    • (1995) Risk Assessment for Contaminants in Food
    • Carrington, C.D.1    Bolger, M.2
  • 52
    • 0346125783 scopus 로고
    • The underworld of probability
    • Fisher, R.A., The underworld of probability. Sankhya, 18 (1957) 201-210.
    • (1957) Sankhya , vol.18 , pp. 201-210
    • Fisher, R.A.1
  • 54
    • 26444555662 scopus 로고
    • Higher order probabilities
    • (eds L.N. Kanal, T.S. Levitt & J.F. Lemmer) Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam
    • Kyburg, H.E. Jr., Higher order probabilities. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 3, (eds L.N. Kanal, T.S. Levitt & J.F. Lemmer) Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 1989, pp.15-22.
    • (1989) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 3 , pp. 15-22
    • Kyburg H.E., Jr.1
  • 58
    • 0004158548 scopus 로고
    • National Research Council, Washington
    • Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants, Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment. National Research Council, Washington, 1994.
    • (1994) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment
  • 59
    • 0005284488 scopus 로고
    • A second opinion on an environmental misdiagnosis: The risky prescriptions of Breaking the Vicious Circle
    • Finkel, A.M., A second opinion on an environmental misdiagnosis: The risky prescriptions of Breaking the Vicious Circle. New York Univ. Env. Law J., 3 (1995) 295-381.
    • (1995) New York Univ. Env. Law J. , vol.3 , pp. 295-381
    • Finkel, A.M.1
  • 63
    • 0028148544 scopus 로고
    • Stepping out of your own shadow: A didactic example of how facing uncertainty can improve decision-making
    • Finkel, A.M., Stepping out of your own shadow: a didactic example of how facing uncertainty can improve decision-making. Risk Anal., 14 (1994) 751-761.
    • (1994) Risk Anal. , vol.14 , pp. 751-761
    • Finkel, A.M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.