ENSO model validation using wavelet probability analysis

Journal of Climate

Volumn 23, Issue 20, 2010, Pages 5540-5547

  Stevenson, Samantha ^a   Fox Kemper, Baylor ^a   Jochum, Markus ^b   Rajagopalan, Balaji ^c   Yeager, Stephen G ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^c UCB 450   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate models; Climate variability; ENSO; Probability forecasts models distributions; Wavelets

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONFIDENCE LEVELS; COUPLED CLIMATE MODEL; DATA RECORDS; ENSO; ENSO MODELS; EXPONENTIAL DEPENDENCE; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; MODEL SIMULATION; OBSERVATIONAL DATA; PROBABILITY ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY INDEX; ROBUST STATISTICS; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; THREE MODELS; WAVELET SPECTRUM; WAVELETS;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; SET THEORY; STATISTICAL TESTS; TIME SERIES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; COUPLING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECASTING METHOD; MODEL VALIDATION; PROBABILITY; WAVELET ANALYSIS;

EID: 78649262492     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3609.1     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. AchutaRao, K., and K. R. Sperber, 2006: ENSO simulation in coupled oceanatmosphere models: Are the current models better? Climate Dyn., 27, 1-15.
2. Brown, J., A. W. Tudhope, M. Collins, and H. V. McGregor, 2008: Mid- Holocene ENSO: Issues in quantitative model-proxy data comparisons. Paleoceanography, 23, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2007PA001512.
3. Capotondi, A., A. Wittenberg, and S. Masina, 2006: Spatial and temporal structure of tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations. Ocean Modell., 15, 274-298.
4. Daubechies, I., 1990: The wavelet transform, time-frequency localization and signal analysis. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 36, 961-1004.
5. Guilyardi, E., 2006: El Niño-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 26, 329-348.
6. Guilyardi, E,A.Wittenberg,A. Fedorov,M. Collins, C.Wang, A. Capotondi, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and T. Stockdale, 2009: Understanding El Niño in oceanatmosphere general circulation models: Progress and challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 325-340.
7. Jochum, M., B. Fox-Kemper, P. Molnar, and C. Shields, 2009: Differences in the Indonesian seaway in a coupled climate model and their relevance to Pliocene climate and El Niñ o. Paleoceanography, 24, PA1212, doi:10.1029/2008PA001678.
8. Jochum, M, S. Yeager, K. Lindsay, K. Moore, and R. Murtugudde, 2010: Quantification of the feedback between phytoplankton and ENSO in the community climate system model. J. Climate, 23, 2916-2925.
9. Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2008: The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux dataset. Climate Dyn., 33, 341-364, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3.
10. Liu, Y., X. S. Lian, and R. H. Weisberg, 2007: Rectification of the bias in the wavelet power spectrum. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 24, 2093-2102.
11. 18O records of anomalous Holocene variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11204, doi:10.1029/2004GL019972.
12. Montgomery, D., and G. Runger, 2007: Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers. John Wiley & Sons, 768 pp.
13. Neale, R. B., J. H. Richter, and M. Jochum, 2008: The impact of convection on ENSO: From a delayed oscillator to a series of events. J. Climate, 21, 5904-5924.
14. Nicholls, N., B. Lavery, C. Frederiksen, and W. Drosdowsky, 1996: Recent apparent changes in relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall and temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3357-3360.
15. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1996: Quantifying Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships. J.Climate, 9, 1043-1059.
16. Seager, R., 2007: The turn of the century North American drought: Global context, dynamics, and past analogs. J. Climate, 20, 5527-5552.
17. Torrence, C., and G. Compo, 1998: A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61-78.
18. Trenberth, K.E.,G.W.Branstator,D. Karoly,A.Kumar,N.-C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski, 1998: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 103C, 14 291-14 324.
19. van Oldenborgh, G., S. Philip, and M. Collins, 2005: El Niño in a changing climate. Ocean Sci., 1, 81-95.
20. Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038710.
21. Wittenberg, A. T., A. Rosati, N.-C. Lau, and J. J. Ploshay, 2006: GFDLs CM2 global coupled climate models. Part III: Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. J. Climate, 19, 698-722.
22. Zhang, X., and M. J. McPhaden, 2006: Wind stress variations and interannual sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 19, 226-241.