Modeling the effectiveness of oil combating from an ecological perspective - A Bayesian network for the Gulf of Finland; the Baltic Sea

Journal of Hazardous Materials

Volumn 185, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 182-192

  Helle, Inari ^a   Lecklin, Tiina ^a   Jolma, Ari ^b   Kuikka, Sakari ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

^b AALTO UNIVERSITY   (Finland)

Author keywords

Bayesian networks; Dispersants; Gulf of Finland; Oil combating; Oil spills

Indexed keywords

ACCIDENT SCENARIOS; BALTIC SEA; BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELS; DISPERSANTS; ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES; ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS; ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; GULF OF FINLAND; MARINE AREAS; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; MARITIME TRAFFIC; OIL COMBATING; OIL TRANSPORTATION; SUPPORTIVE TOOLS; TECHNICAL RESOURCES;

DECISION MAKING; DISTRIBUTED PARAMETER NETWORKS; ECOSYSTEMS; HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SPILLS; INFERENCE ENGINES; INTELLIGENT NETWORKS; KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS; MARINE POLLUTION; OIL SPILLS; PETROLEUM TRANSPORTATION; SPEECH RECOGNITION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS;

ACCIDENT; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; DECISION MAKING; DISPERSION; ECOLOGICAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; MARITIME TRANSPORTATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; OIL SPILL; OIL SPILL RESPONSE;

AQUATIC SPECIES; ARTICLE; BALTIC SEA; BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FINLAND; OIL SPILL; WATER POLLUTION CONTROL;

ACCIDENTS, OCCUPATIONAL; ANIMALS; BAYES THEOREM; BEETLES; BIODIVERSITY; BIVALVIA; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DUCKS; ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION; FINLAND; FISHES; MODELS, STATISTICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; PETROLEUM; POPULATION; SALSOLA; SEALS, EARLESS; SHIPS; TRANSPORTATION;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA; GULF OF FINLAND;

EID: 78549248809     PISSN: 03043894     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.09.017     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Furman E., Hamari R., Dalhström H. Baltic - Man and Nature 1998, Keuruu, Otava.
2. HELCOM, Coastal and Marine Protected Areas in the Baltic Sea Region, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 1996.
3. Sweitzer J., Langaas S., Folke C. Land cover and population density in the Baltic Sea drainage basin: a GIS database. Ambio 1996, 25:191-198.
4. Kuronen J., Helminen R., Lehikoinen A., Tapaninen U. Maritime Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015 2008, University of Turku, Turku.
5. Oil Pollution Preparedness on the Open Sea - Final Report of the Working Group 2007, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki. M. Hietala, K. Lampela (Eds.).
6. Hänninen S., Rytkönen J. Oil Transportation and Terminal Development in the Gulf of Finland 2004, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo.
7. HELCOM, Restricted use of chemical agents and other non-mechanical means in oil combating operations in the Baltic Sea, HELCOM Recommendation 22/2, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 2001.
8. ASCE, State-of-the-art review of modeling transport and fate of oil spills, J. Hydraul. Eng. 122 (1996) 594-609.
9. Reed M., Johansen O., Brandvik P.J., Daling P., Lewis A., Fiocco R., Mackay D., Prentki R. Oil spill modeling towards the close of the 20th century: overview of the state of the art. Spill Sci. Techol. Bull. 1999, 5:3-16.
10. Flint P.L., Fowler A.C., Rockwell R.F. Modeling bird mortality associated with the M/V Citrus oil spill off St. Paul Island, Alaska. Ecol. Model. 1999, 117:261-267.
11. Reed M., French D.P., Calambokidis J., Cubbage J.C. Simulation modeling of the effects of oil spills on population-dynamics of Northern Fur Seals. Ecol. Model. 1989, 49:49-71.
12. Gerber L.R., Buenau K.E., Vanblaricom G.R. Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters. Biodivers. Conserv. 2004, 13:2741-2757.
13. Forde S.E. Modelling the effects of an oil spill on open populations of intertidal invertebrates. J. Appl. Ecol. 2002, 39:595-604.
14. French McCay D., Rowe J.J., Whittier N., Sankaranarayanan S., Etkin D.S. Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil. J. Hazard. Mater. 2004, 107:11-25.
15. French McCay D.P. Oil spill impact modeling: development and validation. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2004, 23:2441-2456.
16. Charniak E. Bayesian networks without tears. AI Mag. 1991, 12:50-63.
17. Jensen F.V. An Introduction to Bayesian Networks 1996, UCL Press, London.
18. Jensen F.V. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Statistics for Engineering and Information Science 2001, Springer-Verlag, New York.
19. Pradhan M., Henrion M., Provan G., Del Favero B., Huang K. The sensitivity of belief networks to imprecise probabilities: an experimental investigation. Artif. Intell. 1996, 85:363-397.
20. Antal P., Fannes G., Timmerman D., Moreau Y., De Moor B. Bayesian applications of belief networks and multilayer perceptrons for ovarian tumor classification with rejection. Artif. Intell. Med. 2003, 29:39-60.
21. Verduijn M., Peek N., Rosseel P.M.J., de Jonge E., de Mol B.A.J.M. Prognostic Bayesian networks I: rationale, learning procedure, and clinical use. J. Biomed. Inform. 2007, 40:609-618.
22. Bacon P.J., Cain J.D., Howard D.C. Belief network models of land manager decisions and land use change. J. Environ. Manage. 2002, 65:1-23.
23. Wooff D.A., Schneider J.M. A Bayesian belief network for quality assessment: application to employment officer support. J. Intell. Disabil. Res. 2006, 50:109-126.
24. Borsuk M.E., Stow C.A., Reckhow K.H. A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Ecol. Model. 2004, 173:219-239.
25. Bromley J., Jackson N.A., Clymer O.J., Giacomello A.M., Jensen F.V. The use of Hugin((R)) to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resource planning. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2005, 20:231-242.
26. Kuikka S., Hilden M., Gislason H., Hansson S., Sparholt H., Varis O. Modeling environmentally driven uncertainties in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) management by Bayesian influence diagrams. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1999, 56:629-641.
27. Marcot B.G., Holthausen R.S., Raphael M.G., Rowland M.M., Wisdom M.J. Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. For. Ecol. Manage. 2001, 153:29-42.
28. Newton A.C., Stewart G.B., Diaz A., Golicher D., Pullin A.S. Bayesian Belief networks as a tool for evidence-based conservation management. J. Nat. Conserv. 2007, 15:144-160.
29. Sadoddin A., Letcher R.A., Jakeman A.J., Newham L.T.H. A Bayesian decision network approach for assessing the ecological impacts of salinity management. Math. Comput. Simul. 2005, 69:162-176.
30. Uusitalo L., Kuikka S., Romakkaniemi A. Estimation of Atlantic salmon smolt carrying capacity of rivers using expert knowledge. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 2005, 62:708-722.
31. Varis O. Bayesian decision analysis for environmental and resource management. Environ. Modell. Softw. 1997, 12:177-185.
32. Varis O., Kettunen J., Sirviö H. Bayesian influence diagram approach to complex environmental management including observational design. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 1990, 9:77-91.
33. Varis O., Kuikka S. Joint use of multiple environmental assessment models by a Bayesian meta-model: the Baltic salmon case. Ecol. Model. 1997, 102:341-351.
34. Uusitalo L. Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecol. Model. 2007, 203:312-318.
35. T. Juntunen, T. Rosqvist, J. Rytkönen, S. Kuikka, How to Model the Oil Combatting Technologies and Their Impacts on Ecosystem: a Bayesian Networks, ICES 2005 S:02, 2005.
36. The 2000 Red List of Finnish species 2001, Edita, Helsinki. P. Rassi, A. Alanen, T. Kanerva, I. Mannerkoski (Eds.).
37. S. Ovsienko, An updated assessment of the risk for oil spills in the Baltic Sea area, A report related to the HELCOM Project "An updated assessment of the risk for oil spills in the Baltic Sea area" 2002.
38. A. Jolma, Geoinformatica: a modeling platform built on FOSS, ISESS 2007, Prague, Czech Republic, 2007.
39. Madsen A.L., Jensen F., Kjærulff U.B., Lang M. The Hugin tool for probabilistic graphical models. Int. J. Artif. Intell. Tools 2005, 14:507-543.
40. NRC, Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects, National Academic Press, Washington, D.C., 2003.
41. HELCOM, Compilation on Ship Accidents in the Baltic Sea Area 2000 and 2001, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 2002.
42. HELCOM, Compilation on Ship Accidents in the Baltic Sea Area 2002, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 2003.
43. HELCOM, Compilation on Ship Accidents in the Baltic Sea Area 2003, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 2004.
44. HELCOM, Report on ship accidents in the Baltic Sea area for the year 2004, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 2005.
45. HELCOM, Report on ship accidents in the Baltic Sea area for the year 2005, Helsinki Commission, Helsinki, 2006.
46. Kahma K., Pettersson H. Wave Statistics from the Gulf of Finland 1982-1985 1993, Finnish Institute of Marine Research, Helsinki.
47. Ekebom J., Laihonen P., Suominen T. A GIS-based step-wise procedure for assessing physical exposure in fragmented archipelagos. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 2003, 57:887-898.
48. EMSA, Inventory of national policies regarding the use of oil spill dispersants in the EU Member States, EMSA Inventory, European Maritime Safety Agency, Lisbon, 2007.
49. Fingas M.F., Kyle D., Tennyson E. Dispersant effectiveness: studies into the causes of effectiveness variations. The Use of Chemicals in Oil Spill Response, ASTM STP 1252 1995, 92-206. American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia. P. Lane (Ed.).
50. M. Fingas, Dispersants, Salinity, and Prince William Sound, Report prepared for the Prince William Sound Regional Citizens' Advisory Council, Anchorage, Alaska, Environment Canada, 2004.
51. Anonymous, Suomenlahden alueen alusöljy- ja aluskemikaalivahinkojen torjunnan yhteistoimintasuunnitelma (The co-operation strategy for combating oil and chemical spills in the Gulf of Finland), Uusimaa Regional Environment Centre and Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre, 2007.
52. Lehr W., Fraga R.J., Belen M.S., Cekirge H.M. A new technique to estimate initial spill size using a modified Fay-type spreading formula. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 1984, 15:326-329.
53. Chao X.B., Shankar N.J., Wang S.S.Y. Development and application of oil spill model for Singapore coastal waters. J. Hydraul. Eng. 2003, 129:495-503.
54. Peeters F., Wuest A., Piepke G., Imboden D.M. Horizontal mixing in lakes. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 1996, 101:18361-18375.
55. Delvigne G.A.L., Sweeney C.E. Natural dispersion of oil. Oil Chem. Pollut. 1988, 4:281-310.
56. Pezeshki S.R., Hester M.W., Lin Q., Nyman J.A. The effects of oil spill and clean-up on dominant US Gulf coast marsh macrophytes: a review. Environ. Pollut. 2000, 108:129-139.
57. Fingas M. The Basics of Oil Spill Cleanup 2000, Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton. 2nd ed.
58. Curtis T.M., Williamson R., Depledge M.H. Simultaneous, long-term monitoring of valve and cardiac activity in the blue mussel Mytilus edulis exposed to copper. Mar. Biol. 2000, 136:837-846.
59. Shaffer M.L. Minimum population sizes for species conservation. Bioscience 1981, 31:131-134.
60. Lande R. Anthropogenic, ecological and genetic factors in extinction and conservation. Res. Popul. Ecol. 1998, 40:259-269.
61. Morgan M.G., Henrion M. Uncertainity. A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis 1990, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
62. SMHI, Technical documentation Seatrack Web, Physical processes, numerics, algorithms and references, Version 2.4.0., Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 2008.
63. Delgado L., Kumzerova E., Martynov M. Simulation of oil spill behaviour and response operations in PISCES. Environmental Problems in Coastal Regions VI: Including Oil and Chemical Spill Studies 2006, 279-293. WIT Press, Southampton. C.A. Brebbia (Ed.).
64. George-Ares A., Clark J.R. Aquatic toxicity of two Corexit(R) dispersants. Chemosphere 2000, 40:897-906.
65. Andrejev O., Myrberg K., Alenius P., Lundberg P.A. Mean circulation and water exchange in the Gulf of Finland - a study based on three-dimensional modelling. Boreal Environ. Res. 2004, 9:1-16.
66. Alenius P., Myrberg K., Nekrasov A. The physical oceanography of the Gulf of Finland: a review. Boreal Environ. Res. 1998, 3:97-125.
67. C.J. Beegle-Krause, General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME): A New Spill Trajectory Model, IOSC 2001 Proceedings, Tampa, Florida, March 26-29, Mira Digital Publishing, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri, 2001, pp. 865-871.
68. Lehr W., Jones R., Evans M., Simecek-Beatty D., Overstreet R. Revisions of the ADIOS oil spill model. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2002, 17:191-199.
69. Skognes K., Johansen O. Statmap - a 3-dimensional model for oil spill risk assessment. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2004, 19:727-737.
70. M.O. Hayes, R. Hoff, J. Michel, D. Scholz, G. Shigenaka, An Introduction to Coastal Habitats and Biological Resources for Spill Response. Report No. HMRAD 92-4, Hazardous Materials Response and Assessment Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, 1992.
71. NRC, Using Oil Spill Dispersants on the Sea, National Academic Press, Washington, D.C., 1989.
72. Nordvik A.B. The technology Windows-of-Opportunity for marine oil-spill response as related to oil weathering and operations. Spill Sci. Technol. Bull. 1995, 2:17-46.
73. Nordvik A.B. Time window-of-opportunity strategies for oil spill planning and response. Pure Appl. Chem. 1999, 71:5-16.
74. ITOPF, The Use of Chemical Dispersants to Treat Oil Spills, Technical Information Paper No. 4/2005, The International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Limited, London, 2005.