Bayesian Belief Networks as a tool for evidence-based conservation management

Journal for Nature Conservation

Volumn 15, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 144-160

  Newton, A C ^a   Stewart, G B ^b   Diaz, A ^a   Golicher, D ^c   Pullin, A S ^b  

^a BOURNEMOUTH UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b BANGOR UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^c DEPARTAMENTO DE CONSERVACIÓN DE LA BIODIVERSIDAD   (Mexico)

Author keywords

Environmental risk; Expert opinion; Extinction; Probabilistic modelling; Systematic review

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BURNING; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; EXTINCTION; GRAPHICAL METHOD; GRAZING; LOWLAND ENVIRONMENT;

EURASIA; EUROPE; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

CERVIDAE; RHODODENDRON; RHODODENDRON PONTICUM;

EID: 34250670685     PISSN: 16171381     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2007.03.001     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Bøttcher, S. G. & Dethlefsen, C. (2003). DEAL: A package for learning Bayesian networks 〈http://www.math.auc.dk/novo/deal〉.
2. Bromley J., Jackson N.A., Clymer O.J., Giacomello A.M., and Jensen F.V. The use of Hugin to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resource planning. Environmental Modelling and Software 20 2 (2005) 231-242
3. Bullock J.M., and Pakeman R.J. Grazing of lowland heath in England: Management methods and their effects on heathland vegetation. Biological Conservation 79 1 (1997) 1-13
4. Burgman M. Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management (2005), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
5. Cain J.D., Batchelor C.H., and Waughray D.K.N. Belief networks: A framework for the participatory development of natural resource management strategies. Environment, Development and Sustainability 1 (1999) 123-133
6. Castillo E., Gutierrez J.M., and Hadi A.S. Expert systems and probabilistic network models (1997), Springer, New York
7. Cook D., Mulrow J., Haynes C.D., and Brian R. Systematic reviews: Synthesis of best evidence for clinical decisions. Annals of Internal Medicine 126 5 (1997) 376-380
8. Costanza R., and Voinov A. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA: Part III. Ecological Modelling 143 1-2 (2001) 1-7
9. Cowell R.G., and Dawid A.P. Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system. Statistics and Computing 2 (1992) 37-40
10. Crome F.H.J., Thomas M.R., and Moore L.A. A novel Bayesian approach to assessing impacts of rain forest logging. Ecological Applications 6 (1996) 1104-1123
11. Cross J.R. Biological flora of the British Isles: Rhododendron ponticum L. The Journal of Ecology 63 1 (1975) 345-364
12. DEFRA. Review of heather and grass burning regulations and code of practice in England. A consultation document - September 2005 (2005), DEFRA, London
13. Diaz A., Pinn E.H., and Hannaford J. Ecological impacts of Sika deer on Poole Harbour saltmarshes. In: Humphreys J., and May V. (Eds). The ecology of Poole Harbour (2005), Elsevier, with Poole Harbour Study Group, Amsterdam 175-188
14. Egger M., Smith G.D., and Altman D.G. Systematic reviews in healthcare: Meta-analysis in context (2003), BMJ Publishing Group, London
15. Ellison A.M. An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Ecological Applications 6 4 (1996) 1036-1046
16. Gadon L., Cooke D.J., and Johnstone L. Institutional violence: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the impact of situational factors on violence. Campbell Collaboration Systematic Review Protocol (2005)
17. Gertner G.Z., and Zhu H. Bayesian estimation in forest surveys when samples or prior information are fuzzy. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 77 (1996) 277-290
18. Gimingham, C. H. (1992). The lowland heathland management book. English nature science reports, no. 8. Peterborough: English Nature.
19. Glaves, D. J., Haycock, N. E., Costigan, P., Coulson, J. C., Marrs, R. H., Robertson, P. & Younger, J. (2005). Defra review of the heather and grass burning regulations and code: Science panel assessment of the effects of burning on biodiversity, soils and hydrology. Report to Defra Conservation, Uplands and Rural Europe Division, Uplands Management Branch.
20. Haas T.C. A Bayesian Belief Network advisory system for Aspen regeneration. Forest Science 37 (1991) 627-654
21. Heckerman, D. (1996). A tutorial on learning with Bayesian Networks. Technical report MSR-TR-95-06, Microsoft Research Advanced Technology Division 〈http://research.microsoft.com/research/pubs/view.aspx?msr_tr_id=MS R-TR-95-06〉.
22. Hugin. Manual to Hugin Developer 6.3 (2003), Hugin Expert A/S, Aalborg, Denmark
23. Hurford C., and Schneider M. Monitoring nature conservation in cultural habitats: A practical guide and case studies (2006), Springer, New York
24. Jensen F.V. Bayesian networks and decision graphs (2001), Springer, New York
25. Lake S., Bullock J.M., and Hartley S. Impacts of livestock grazing on lowland heathland in the UK (2001), English Nature, English nature research reports no. 422. Peterborough
26. Marcot B.G., Holthausen R.S., Raphael M.G., Rowland M., and Wisdom M. Using Bayesian Belief Networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. Forest Ecology and Management 153 1-3 (2001) 29-42
27. Margoluis R., and Salafsky N. Measures of success: Designing, managing, and monitoring conservation and development projects (1998), Island Press, Washington, DC
28. Neil M., Fenton N., and Nielson L. Building large-scale Bayesian networks. The Knowledge Engineering Review 15 3 (2000) 257-284
29. Newton A.C. Forest ecology and conservation. A handbook of techniques (2007), Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
30. Newton, A.C., Marshall, E., Schreckenberg, K., Golicher, D., Te Velde, D.W., Edouard, F., et al. (2006). Use of a Bayesian Belief Network to predict the impacts of commercializing non-timber forest products on livelihoods. Ecology and Society 11(2), 24 (URL:〈http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art24/〉).
31. Nye C., Schwartz J., and Turner H. The effectiveness of parental involvement for improving the academic performance of elementary school children. Campbell Collaboration Systematic Review Protocol (2005)
32. Olesen K.G., Lauritzen S.L., and Jensen F.V. Hugin: A system creating adaptive causal probabilistic networks. In: Dubois D., Wellman M.P., D'Ambrosio B., and Smets P. (Eds). Proceedings of the 8th conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence (1992), Morgan Kaufmann, Stanford, CA; San Mateo, CA 223-229
33. Pearl J. Fusion, propagation and structuring in belief networks. Artificial Intelligence 29 (1986) 241-288
34. Pearl J. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: Networks of plausible inference (1988), Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc, Mateo, CA
35. Pearl J. Causal diagrams for empirical research. Biometrika 82 4 (1995) 669-688
36. Petticrew M. Systematic reviews from astronomy to zoology: Myths and misconceptions. British Medical Journal 222 (2001) 98-101
37. Pullin A.S., and Knight T.M. Effectiveness in conservation practice: Pointers from medicine and public health. Conservation Biology 15 (2001) 50-54
38. Pullin A.S., and Knight T.M. Support for decision making in conservation practice: An evidence-based approach. Journal for Nature Conservation 11 (2003) 83-90
39. Pullin A.S., Knight T.M., Stone D.A., and Charman K. Do conservation managers use scientific evidence to support their decision-making?. Biological Conservation 119 (2004) 245-252
40. Pullin A.S., and Stewart G.B. Guidelines for systematic review in conservation and environmental management. Conservation Biology 20 (2006) 1647-1656
41. Rieman B., Peterson J.T., Clayton J., Howell P., Thurow R., Thompson W., et al. Evaluation of potential effects of federal land management alternatives on trends of salmonids and their habitats in the interior Columbia River Basin. Forest Ecology and Management 153 (2001) 43-62
42. Rose R.J., Webb N.R., Clarke R.T., and Traynor C.H. Changes on the heathlands in Dorset, England, between 1987 and 1996. Biological Conservation 93 1 (2000) 117-125
43. Salafsky N., Margoluis R., and Redford K. Adaptive management: A tool for conservation practitioners (2001), Biodiversity Support Program, Washington, DC
44. Salafsky N., Margoluis R., Redford K., and Robinson J. Improving the practice of conservation: A conceptual framework and agenda for conservation science. Conservation Biology 16 (2002) 1469-1479
45. Spiegelhalter D.J., and Cowell R.G. Learning in probabilistic expert systems. In: Bernardo J.M., Berger J.O., Dawid A.P., and Smith A.F.M. (Eds). Bayesian statistics 4 (1993), Oxford University Press, Oxford 447-465
46. Spiegelhalter D.J., Dawid A.P., Lauritzen S.L., and Cowell R.G. Bayesian analysis in expert systems. Statistical Science 8 3 (1993) 219-283
47. Spiegelhalter D.J., and Lauritzen S.L. Sequential updating of conditional probabilities on directed graphical structures. Networks 20 5 (1990) 579-605
48. Stagner M., Ehrle J., and Reardon-Anderson J. Systematic review of the impact of mandatory work policies on family structure. Campbell Collaboration Systematic Review Protocol (2003)
49. Stevens A., and Milne R. The effectiveness revolution and public health. In: Scally G. (Ed). Progress in public health (1997), Royal Society for Medicine Press, London 197-225
50. Stewart, G. B., Coles, C. F., & Pullin, A.S. (2004). Does burning degrade blanket bog? Systematic review no. 1. Centre for Evidence-Based Conservation 〈www.cebc.bham.ac.uk〉.
51. Stewart G.B., Coles C.F., and Pullin A.S. Applying evidence-based practice in conservation management: Lessons from the first systematic review and dissemination projects. Biological Conservation 126 2 (2005) 270-278
52. Sutherland W.J., Armstrong-Brown S., Armsworth P.R., Brereton T., Brickland J., Campbell C.D., et al. The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK. Journal of Applied Ecology 43 (2006) 617-627
53. Sutherland W.J., Pullin A.S., Dolman P.M., and Knight T.M. The need for evidence-based conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19 6 (2004) 305-308
54. Tucker, G. (2003). Review of the impacts of heather and grassland burning in the uplands on soils, hydrology and biodiversity. Unpublished report to English Nature, Peterborough.
55. Tyler C., Pullin A.S., and Stewart G.B. Effectiveness of management interventions to control invasion by Rhododendron ponticum. Environmental Management 37 4 (2006) 513-522
56. Webb N.R. Heathlands (1986), Collins, New Naturalist Series, London
57. Webb N.R. The traditional management of European heathlands. Journal of Applied Ecology 35 6 (1998) 987-990
58. Wright S. The method of path coefficients. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 5 (1934) 161-215