Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

Energy Policy

Volumn 39, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 334-348

  Bahn, Olivier ^a   Edwards, Neil R ^b   Knutti, Reto ^c   Stocker, Thomas F ^d  

^a HEC MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^b OPEN UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^c ETH Zurich   (Switzerland)

^d UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Climate tipping points; GHG emission reduction; Integrated assessment modeling

Indexed keywords

CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATIONS; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; CLIMATE SYSTEM; GHG EMISSION; GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; MITIGATION POLICIES; NON-LINEAR; PALEOCLIMATES; RATE OF CHANGE; REGIME SHIFT; RENEWABLE ENERGIES; SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS; SURFACE WARMING; TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATIONS; TIPPING POINT;

ENERGY POLICY; GAS EMISSIONS; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES; RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CARBON EMISSION; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE MODELING; EMISSION CONTROL; ENERGY POLICY; GREENHOUSE GAS;

EID: 78549238491     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.002     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Allen M.R., Frame D.J., Huntingford C., Jones C.D., Lowe J.A., Meinshausen M., Meinshausen N. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 2009, 458:1163-1166.
2. Allen M.R., Stott P.A., Mitchell J.F., Schnur R., Delworth T.L. Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 2000, 407:617-620.
3. Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C., Edwards N.R., Marsh R. Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble kalman filter. Ocean Modelling 2005, 8:135-154.
4. Bahn O., Drouet L., Edwards N.R., Haurie A., Knutti R., Kypreos S., Stocker T.F., Vial J.-P. The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics. Climatic Change 2006, 79:103-119.
5. Beltran C., Drouet L., Edwards N.R., Haurie A., Vial J.-P., Zachary D. An oracle method to couple climate and economic dynamics. The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics 2005, 69-95. Springer. A. Haurie, L. Viguier (Eds.).
6. Bruckner T., Zickfeld K. Emissions corridors for reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies of Global Change 2009, 14:61-83.
7. Bruckner T., Hooss G., Fuessel H.M., Hasselmann K. Climate system modeling in the framework of the tolerable windows approach: the ICLIPS climate model. Climatic Change 2003, 56:119-137.
8. Bruckner T., Petschel-Held G., Toth F., Fuessel H.M., Helm C., Leimbach M., Schellnhuber H. Climate change decision support and the tolerable windows approach. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1999, 4:217-234.
9. De La Chesnaye, F.C., Weyant, J.P. (Eds.), 2006. Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy. The Energy Journal (special issue 3, 520 pp.).
10. Drouet L., Edwards N.R., Haurie A. Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: a convex optimisation approach. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2006, 11:101-114.
11. Edwards N.R., Marsh R. Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model. Climate Dynamics 2005, 24:415-433.
12. Forest C.E., Stone P.H., Sokolov A.P., Allen M.R., Webster M.D. Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science 2002, 295:113-117.
13. 2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32. 10.1029/2005GL023209.
14. Hasselmann K., Sausen R., Maier-Reimer E., Voss R. On the cold start problem in transient simulations with coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Climate Dynamics 1993, 9:53-61.
15. Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. J.J. McCarthy (Ed.).
16. IPCC, 2000. Special report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
17. Joos F., Müller-Fürstenberger G., Stephan G. Correcting the carbon cycle representation: how important is it for the economics of climate change?. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1999, 4:133-140.
18. 2. Science 1999, 284:464-467.
19. Kaufmann R.K. Assessing the DICE model: uncertainty associated with the emissions and retention of greenhouse gases. Climatic Change 1997, 35:435-448.
20. Keller K., Bolker B.M., Bradford D.F. Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 2004, 48:723-741.
21. Keller K., Tan K., Morel F.M.M., Bradford D.F. Preserving the ocean circulation: implications for climate policy. Climatic Change 2000, 47:17-43.
22. Knutti R., Hegerl G.C. The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geoscience 2008, 1:735-743.
23. Knutti R., Krähenmann S., Frame D.J., Allen M.R. Comment on "Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system" by S. E. Schwartz. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:D15103. 10.1029/2007JD009473.
24. Knutti R., Flückiger J., Stocker T.F., Timmerman A. Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation. Nature 2004, 430:851-856.
25. Knutti R., Stocker T.F., Joos F., Plattner G.-K. Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks. Climate Dynamics 2003, 21:257-272.
26. Knutti R., Stocker T.F. Limited predictability of the future thermohaline circulation close to an instability threshold. Journal of Climate 2002, 15:179-186.
27. Knutti R., Stocker T.F., Joos F., Plattner G.-K. Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles. Nature 2002, 416:719-723.
28. Knutti R., Stocker T.F., Wright D.G. The effects of sub-grid-scale parameterizations in a zonally averaged ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography 2000, 30:2738-2752.
29. Knutti R., Stocker T.F. Influence of the thermohaline circulation on projected sea level rise. Journal of Climate 2000, 13:1997-2001.
30. Kriegler E., Hall J.W., Held H., Dawson R., Schellnhuber H.-J. Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2009, 106:5041-5046.
31. Kuhlbrodt T., Rahmstorf S., Zickfeld K., Bendiksen Vikebo F., Sundby S., Hofmann M., Link P.M., Bondeau A., Cramer W., Jaeger C. An integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change 2009, 96:489-537.
32. Kypreos S., Bahn O. A MERGE model with endogenous technological progress. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2003, 8:249-259.
33. Lackner K.S. Capture of carbon dioxide from ambient air. European Physics Journal Special Topics 2009, 176:93-106.
34. Lackner K.S., Brennan S. Envisioning carbon capture and storage: expanded possibilities due to air capture, leakage insurance, and C-14 monitoring. Climatic Change 2009, 96:357-378.
35. Lenton T.M., Held H., Kriegler E., Hall J.W., Lucht W., Rahmstorf S., Schellnhuber H.-J. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2008, 105:1786-1793.
36. Levermann A., Griesel A., Hofmann M., Montoya M., Rahmstorf S. Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climate Dynamics 2005, 24:347-354.
37. Maier-Reimer E., Hasselmann K. Transport and storage of carbon dioxide in the ocean: an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model. Climate Dynamics 1987, 2:63-90.
38. Manne A.S., Richels R.G. MERGE: an integrated assessment model for global climate change. Energy and Environment. GERAD 25th Anniversary Series 2005, 175-189. Springer. R. Loulou, J.-P. Waaub, G. Zaccour (Eds.).
39. Manne A.S., Barreto L. Learn-by-doing and carbon dioxide abatement. Energy Economics 2004, 26:621-633.
40. 2 abatement. Energy Economics 2004, 26:603-619.
41. Manne A.S., Mendelsohn R., Richels R.G. MERGE: a model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies. Energy Policy 1995, 23:17-34.
42. Marsh R., Yool A., Lenton T.M., Gulamali M.Y., Edwards N.R., Shepherd J.G., Krznaric M., Newhouse S., Cox S.J. Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model. Climate Dynamics 2004, 23:761-777.
43. Mastrandrea M.D., Schneider S.H. Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic change. Climate Policy 2001, 1:433-449.
44. Matthews H.D., Gillett N.P., Stott P.A., Zickfeld K. The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions. Nature 2009, 459:829-833.
45. McInerney D., Keller K. Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds. Climatic Change 2008, 91:29-41.
46. Meehl G.A., Stocker T.F., Collins W.D., Friedlingstein P., Gaye A.T., Gregory J.M., Kitoh A., Knutti R., Murphy J.M., Noda A., Raper S.C.B., Watterson I.G., Weaver A.J., Zhao Z.-C. Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 747-845. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
47. Meinshausen M., Meinshausen N., Hare W., Raper S.C., Frieler K., Knutti R., Frame D.J., Allen M.R. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 2009, 458:1158-1162.
48. Nordhaus W.D. Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change 1994, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
49. Obata A. Climate-carbon cycle model response to freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic. Journal of Climate 2007, 20:5962-5976.
50. Energy Technology Analysis Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells 2005, OECD/IEA, International Energy Agency Publications, Paris, France.
51. O'Neill B.C., Oppenheimer M. Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2004, 101:16411-16416.
52. Petschel-Held G., Schellnhuber H.-J., Bruckner T., Toth F., Hasselmann K. The tolerable windows approach: theoretical and methodological foundations. Climatic Change 1999, 41:303-331.
53. Plattner G.K., Knutti R., Joos F., Stocker T.F., von Bloh W., Brovkin V., Cameron D., Driesschaert E., Dutkiewicz M., Edwards N.R., Fichefet T., Hargreaves J.C., Jones C.D., Loutre M.F., Matthews H.D., Mouchet A., Müller S.A., Nawrath S., Price A., Sokolov A., Strassmann K.M., Weaver A. Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle model. Journal of Climate 2008, 21:2721-2751.
54. Rahmstorf S., Crucifix M., Ganopolski A., Goosse H., Kamenkovich I., Knutti R., Lohmann G., Marsh R., Mysak L.A., Wang Z., Weaver A.J. Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32. 10.1029/2005GL023655.
55. Schaeffer M., Selten M., Opsteegh D., Goosse H. Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters 2002, 29. 10.1029/ 2002GL01524.
56. Schmittner A., Stocker T.F. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments. Journal of Climate 1999, 12:1117-1133.
57. Stainforth D.A., et al. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 2005, 433:403-406.
58. Stocker T.F. Past and future reorganizations in the climate system. Quaternary Science Reviews 2000, 19:301-319.
59. 2 emissions rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 1997, 388:862-865.
60. Stocker T.F., Wright D.G., Mysak L.A. A zonally averaged, coupled ocean-atmosphere model for paleoclimate studies. Journal of Climate 1992, 5:773-797.
61. Stouffer R.J., Yin J., Gregory J.M., Dixon K.W., Spelman M.J., Hurlin W., Weaver A.J., Eby M., Flato G.M., Hasumi H., Hu A., Jungclaus J.H., Kamenkovich I.V., Levermann, Montoya M., Murakami S., Nawrath S., Oka A., Peltier W.R., Robitaille D.W., Sokolov A., Vettoretti G., Weber S.L. Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. Journal of Climate 2006, 19:1365-1387.
62. Stouffer R.J. Time scales of climate response. Journal of Climate 2004, 17:209-217.
63. Stouffer R.J., Manabe S. Response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide: sensitivity to the rate of increase. Journal of Climate 1999, 12:2224-2237.
64. 2 uptake. Geophysical Research Letters 2007, 34. Art no. L23706.
65. Trenberth K.E., Jones P.D., Ambenje P., Bojariu R., Easterling D., KleinTank A., Parker D., Rahimzadeh F., Renwick J.A., Rusticucci M., Soden B., Zhai P. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 235-336. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
66. Tziperman E. Inherently unstable climate behaviour due to weak thermohaline ocean circulation. Nature 1997, 386:592-595.
67. United Nations, 1997. Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Climate Change Secretariat, Bonn.
68. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. International Legal Materials 1992, 31:849-873. UNFCCC.
69. Vellinga M., Wood R.A. Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century. Climatic Change 2008, 91:43-63.
70. Vellinga M., Wood R.A. Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change 2002, 54:251-267.
71. Wright E.L., Erickson J.D. Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: science, impacts, and adaptation. Climatic Change 2003, 57:265-286.
72. Yin J., Schlesinger M.E., Stouffer R.J. Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nature Geoscience 2009, 2:262-266.
73. Yohe G., Schlesinger M.E., Andronova N.G. Reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The Integrated Assessment Journal 2006, 6:57-73.
74. Zickfeld K., Bruckner T. Reducing the risk of Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapse: sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors. Climatic Change 2008, 91:291-315.
75. 2. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2008, 22:GB3024. 10.1029/2007GB003118.
76. Zickfeld K., Levermann A., Granger Morgan M., Kuhlbrodt T., Rahmstorf S., Keith D.W. Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. Climatic Change 2007, 82:235-265.
77. Zickfeld K., Bruckner T. Reducing the risk of abrupt climate change: emission corridors preserving the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Integrated Assessment 2003, 4:106-115.