On the (Ir)relevance of prospect theory in Modelling Uncertainty in travel decisions

European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research

Volumn 10, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 368-384

  Timmermans, Harry ^a  

^a EINDHOVEN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Prospect theory; Travel choice; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH;

OPERATIONAL CHOICE; PROSPECT THEORY; RESEARCH AGENDA; TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH; TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR; TRAVEL CHOICE; TRAVEL DECISIONS; UNCERTAINTY;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 78449269666     PISSN: None     EISSN: 15677141     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.18757/ejtir.2010.10.4.2900     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Arentze, T.A. and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2004). Capturing the Role of Awareness and Information Search Processes on Choice Set Formation in Models of Activity-Travel Behavior, Proceedings 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
2. Avineri E. (2009). The Fuzzy Meaning of Reference-Based Perceptions in Travel Choice Modeling, Proceedings 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
3. Avineri, E. and Bovy P.H.L. (2008). Parameter Identification of Prospect Theory Model for Travel Choice Analysis, Transportation Research Record 2082, pp. 141-147.
4. Avineri, E. and Prashker J.N. (2004). Violations of Expected Utility Theory in Route-Choice Stated-Preferences: The Certainty Effect and Inflating of Small Probabilities, Transportation Research Record 1894, pp. 222-229.
5. Avineri, E. and Prashker J.N. (2005). Sensitivity to Uncertainty: The Need for a Paradigm Shift, Transportation Research C, 13, pp. 157-183.
6. Avineri, E. and Prashker J.N. (2006). The Impact of Travel Time Information on Travellers' Learning Under Uncertainty, Transportation, 33, pp. 393-408.
7. Ballenger, P. and Wilcox N. (1997). Decisions, Error and Heterogeneity, Economic Journal, 107, pp. 1090-1095.
8. Bernoulli,.(1738), translated by Dr. Lousie Sommer(1954). Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk. Econometrica, 22, pp. 22-36.
9. Blavatskyy, P. and Pogrebna, G. (2008). Models of Stochastic Choice and Decision Theories, ETH, Zurich.
10. Borgers, A.W.J., Timmermans, H.J.P. and van der Waerden, P.J.H.J. (2007). Spatially Differentiated Utility Functions for Urban Greenspace: A Test Based on Conjoint Choice Experiments. In: A.G. Woodside (ed.), Advances in Culture, Tourism and Hospitality Research, Volume 1, MacMillan, Bangalore, pp. 221-234.
11. Bos, I., Ettema, D.F. and Molin, E.J.E. (2004). Modeling the Effect of Travel Time Uncertainty and Traffic Information on the Use of Park and Ride Facilities, Transportation Research Record, 1898, pp. 37-44.
12. Camerer, E. (1997). Investigation of Stochastic Preference Theory Using Experimental Data, Economics Letters, 51, pp. 1065-1092.
13. Chen, C., Chen, J. and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2009). Historical Deposition Influence in Residential Location Decisions: A Distance-based GEV Model for Spatial Correlation, Proceedings 85th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
14. Chorus, C.G., Molin, E.J.E., Van Wee, B., Arentze, T.A. and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2006a). Responses to transit information among car-drivers: regret-based models and simulations, Transportation Planning and Technology, 29(4), pp. 249-271.
15. Chorus, C.G., Arentze, T.A., Molin, E.J.E., Timmermans, H.J.P. and van Wee, G.P. (2006b). The Value of Travel Information: Decision-Strategy Specific Conceptualizations and Numerical Examples, Transportation Research B, 40, pp. 504-519.
16. Chorus, C.G., Arentze, T.A. and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2008). A Random Regret Minimization model of travel choice. Transportation Research Part B, 42, pp. 1-18.
17. Garling T. (1998). Behavioural assumptions overlooked in travel-choice modeling. In: J.Ortuzar, D. de, D. Hensher and S. Jara-Diaz, Editors, Travel Behaviour Research: Updating the State of Play, Elsevier (1998), pp. 3-18.
18. Habib, M.A. and Miller, E.J. (2009). Reference Dependent Residential Location Choice Model within a Relocation Context, Proceedings 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
19. Han, Q., Dellaert, B., van Raaij, F. and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2005). Integrating Prospect Theory and Stackelberg Games to Model Strategic Dyad Behavior of Information Providers and Travelers: Theory and Numerical Simulations, Transportation Research Record, 1926, pp. 181-188.
20. Han, Q., Timmermans, H.J.P., Dellaert B. and van Raaij, F. (2008). Route Choice under Uncertainty: Effects of Recommendation, Transportation Research Record, 2082, pp. 72-80.
21. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber E.U. and Erev, I. (2004). Decisions From Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice, Psychological Science, 15, pp. 534-539.
22. Hey, J. (1995). Experimental Investigations of Errors in Decision Making Under Risk, European Economic Review, 39, pp. 633-640.
23. Hey, J. and Orme, Ch. (1994), Investigating Generalizations of Expected Utility Theory Using Experimental Data, Econometrica, 62, pp. 1291-326.
24. Jotisankasa, A. and Polak, J.W. (2006). A Framework for Travel Time Learning and Behavioural Adaptation in Route and Departure Time Choice, Proceedings 85th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
25. Jou, R.C. and Kitamura, R. (2002). Commuter Departure Time Choice: A Reference-Point Approach, Proceedings EWGT, Bari, Italy.
26. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions Under Risk, Econometrica, 47, pp. 263-291.
27. Liu, X. and Polak, J.W. (2007). Nonlinearity and the Specification of Attitudes Towards Risk in Discrete Choice Models, Proceedings 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
28. Palma, A. de, R. Lindsey and N. Picard (2008). Congestion, Risk Aversion and the Value of Information, Proceedings 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.
29. Polak, J.W., Hess, S. and Liu, X. (2008). Characterizing Heterogeneity in Attitudes to Risk in Expected Utility Models of Mode and Departure Time Choice, Proceedings 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
30. Schwanen, T. (2007). The 'When' Dimension of Coupling Constraints, Proceedings 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
31. th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
32. Sen, S., Pillai, R., Joshi, S. and Rathi, A.K. (2001). A Mean-Variance Model for Route Guidance in Advanced Traveler Information Systems, Transportation Science, 35, pp. 37-49.
33. Senbil, M. and Kitamura, R. (2004). Reference Points in Commuter Departure Time Choice: A Prospect Theoretic Test of Alternative Decision Frames, Intelligent Transportation Systems, 8, pp. 19-31.
34. Senbil, M. and Kitamura, R. (2006). Valuing Expressways Under Time Pressures, Proceedings 85th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
35. Timmermans, H.J.P. (1982). Consumer Choice of Shopping Centre: An Information Integration Approach, Regional Studies, 16, pp. 171-182.
36. Tversky, A. and D. Kahnemann (1992), Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, pp. 297-323.
37. Sun, Z., T.A. Arentze and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2009). A Heterogeneous Latent Class Model of Activity Rescheduling, Route Choice and Information Acquisition Decisions under Multiple Uncertain Events, Proceedings 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
38. Zhang, J., Timmermans, H.J.P., Borgers, A.W.J. and Wang, D. (2004). Modeling Traveler Choice Behavior Using the Concepts of Relative Utility and Relative Interest, Transportation Research B, 38, pp. 215-234.
39. Zhu, W. and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2009). Modelling Simplifying Information Processing Strategies in Conjoint Experiments, Proceedings of the 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
40. th TRB Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.