Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 106, Issue 49, 2009, Pages 20670-20674

  Burke, Marshall B ^a,b   Miguel, Edward ^a   Satyanath, Shanker ^c   Dykema, John A ^d   Lobell, David B ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c NEW YORK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Civil conflict; Climate change

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK FACTOR; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY; WAR; WARMING;

AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; INCIDENCE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK FACTORS; WAR;

EID: 73949117483     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0907998106     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Blattman C, Miguel E (2009) Civil war. J Econ Lit, in press.
2. Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E (2004) Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach. J Polit Econ 112:725-753.
3. Lobell DB, et al. (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607-610.
4. Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses. Global Environ Change 9:S69-S87.
5. CNA Corp (2007) National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (CNA Corp, Alexandria, VA).
6. Barnaby W (2009) Do nations go to war over water? Nature 458:282-283.
7. Hendrix CS, Glaser SM (2007) Trends and triggers: Climate, climate change and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Polit Geogr 26:695-715.
8. World Bank (2009) World Development Indicators 2009. Available at: www.worldbank.org/data/. Accessed June 1, 2009.
9. Christensen JH, et al. (2007) in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WG1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, eds Solomon S, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 847-940.
10. Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA (2008) Climate shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half-century. NBER Working Paper 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research. Available at http://ssm.com/abstract=1152673. Accessed December 1, 2008.
11. Schlenker W, Lobell DB (2009) Robust and potential severe impacts of climate change on African agriculture. Working paper, Program on Food Security and Environment, Stanford University, submitted.
12. Zhang DD, Brecke P, Lee HF, He YQ, Zhang J (2007) Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:19214-19219.
13. Gleditsch NP, Wallensteen P, Eriksson M, Sollenberg M, Strand H (2002) Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset. J Peace Res 39:615-637.
14. Fearon JD, Laitin DD (2003) Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. Am Polit Sci Rev 97:75-90.
15. Collier P, Hoeffler A (1998) On economic causes of civil war. Oxford Econ Papers 50:563-573.
16. Collier P, Hoeffler A (2004) Greed and Grievance in Civil War (Oxford Univ Press, Oxford, UK).
17. Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2053-2075.
18. Ghobarah HA, Huth P, Russett B (2003) Civil wars kill and maim people-long after the shooting stops. Am Polit Sci Rev 97:189-202.
19. Schlenker W, Roberts MJ (2006) Nonlinear effects of weather on corn yields. Rev Agri Econ 28:391-398.
20. Jones PG, Thornton PK (2003) The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environ Change 13:51-59.
21. Davis B, et al. (2008) Rural Income-Generating Activities: A Cross-Country Comparison (World Bank, Washington DC).
22. Anderson CA, Bushman BJ, Groom RW (1997) Hot years and serious and deadly assault: Empirical tests of the heat hypothesis. J Person Soc Psychol 73:1213-1223.
23. Hancock PA, Ross JM, Szalma JL (2007) Ameta-analysis of performance response under thermal stressors. Hum Factors 49:851-877.
24. Ravallion M, Chen S, Sangraula P (2007) New evidence on the urbanization of global poverty. Policy Research Working Paper 4199, World Bank. Available at http://ssm.com/aabstract=980817. Accessed June 1, 2008.
25. World Bank (2008) World Development Report: Agriculture for Development (World Bank, Washington DC).
26. World Bank (2005) Managing Agricultural Production Risk: Innovations in Developing Countries (World Bank, Washington DC).
27. Miguel E (2007) in Too Poor For Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict, and Security in the 21st Century (Brookings Inst Press, Washington, DC).
28. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693-712.
29. Ciccone A (2008) Transitory economic shocks and civil conflict. CEPR Discussion Paper DP7081, Center for Economic and Policy Research. Available at http://ssm.com/abstract=1344640. Accessed June 1, 2009.
30. Marshall M, Jaggers K, Gurr T (2008) Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2002. Available at http://systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm. Accessed August 24, 2009.
31. Miguel E (2009) Africa's Turn? (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
32. Lacina B, Gleditsch NP (2005) Monitoring trends in global combat: A new dataset of battle deaths. Eur J Pop 21:145-166.