Modeling construction occupational demand: Case of Hong Kong

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management

Volumn 136, Issue 9, 2010, Pages 991-1002

  Wong, James M W ^a   Chan, Albert P C ^b   Chiang, Y H ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b HONG KONG POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

Construction skills; Exponential smoothing; Forecasting; Manpower demand; Regression

Indexed keywords

AGGREGATE MODEL; CONSTRUCTION SKILLS; DEMAND ESTIMATION; DEMAND FORECASTING; EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; HONG-KONG; HUMAN RESOURCES; LABOR MARKETS; MANPOWER DEMAND; MANPOWER PLANNING; POLICY MAKERS; RE-TRAINING PROGRAMS; REGRESSION; TIME-SERIES REGRESSION;

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY; EMPLOYMENT; PLANNING; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

FORECASTING;

EID: 77955903040     PISSN: 07339364     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000205     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Agapiou, A. (1996). " Forecasting the supply of construction labour." Ph.D. thesis, Loughborough Univ., Loughborough, U.K.
2. Agapiou, A., Price, A. D. F., and McCaffer, R. (1995). " Planning future construction skill requirements: Understanding labour resource issues." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 13 (2), 149-161. 10.1080/01446199500000017
3. Ball, M., and Wood, A. (1995). " How many jobs does construction expenditure generate? " Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 13 (4), 307-318. 10.1080/01446199500000036
4. Borghans, L., and Willems, E. (1998). " Interpreting gaps in manpower forecasting models." Labour, 12 (4), 633-641. 10.1111/1467-9914. 00083 1121-7081
5. Bowerman, B. L., and O'Connell, R. T. (1993). Forecasting and time series: An applied approach, 3rd Ed., Duxbury Thomson Learning, Pacific Grove, Calif.
6. Briscoe, G., and Wilson, R. (1991). " Explanations of the demand for labour in the United Kingdom engineering sector." Appl. Econom. APPEBP 0003-6846, 23, 913-926. 10.1080/00036849100000040
7. Briscoe, G., and Wilson, R. (1993). Employment forecasting in the construction industry, Aldershot, Avebury, U.K.
8. Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control, McGraw-Hill, New York.
9. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (2003). " BLS handbook of methods." 〈 http://stat.bls.gov/opub/hom/homtoc.htm 〉 (Feb. 10, 2006).
10. Burridge, M., Dhar, S., Mayes, G., Neal, E., Tyrell, N., and Walker, J. (1991). " Oxford economics forecasting system of models." Econ. Model., 8 (3), 227-254. 10.1016/0264-9993(91)90001-5 0264-9993
11. Campbell, C. P. (1997). " Workforce requirement: The basis for relevant occupational training." J. Eur. Indust. Train. ZZZZZZ 0309-0590, 21 (8), 279-297. 10.1108/03090599710184662
12. Chan, A. P. C., Chiang, Y. H., Mak, S. W. K., Choy, L. H. T., and Wong, J. M. W. (2006). " Forecasting the demand of construction skills in Hong Kong." Constr. Innovation, 6 (1), 3-19. 1471-4175 10.1191/1471417506ci106oa
13. Chatterjee, S., and Hadi, A. S. (1988). Sensitivity analysis in linear regression, Wiley, New York.
14. Chiang, Y. H., Chan, E. H. W., and Sharma, S. (2004). " China Hong Kong." The construction sector in Asian economies, Y. H. Chiang, M. Anson, and, J. Raftery, eds., E & FN Spon, London.
15. Chow, G. (1960). " Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions." Econometrica ECMTA7 0012-9682, 28, 591-534. 10.2307/1910133
16. Construction Industry Review Committee (CIRC). (2001). " Construct for excellence." Rep. of the Construction Industry Review Committee, Hong Kong SAR.
17. Dekker, R., De Grip, A., and Heijke, H. (1994). " Indicating the future labour market prospects of occupational groups and types of education in The Netherlands.", H. Heijke, Ed., Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
18. Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979). " Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with unit roots." J. Am. Stat. Assoc. JSTNAL 0162-1459, 74, 427-431. 10.2307/2286348
19. Engle, R. F. (1982). " Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation." Econometrica ECMTA7 0012-9682, 50, 987-1007. 10.2307/1912773
20. Ganesan, S., Hall, G., and Chiang, Y. H. (1996). Construction in Hong Kong: Issues in labour supply and technology transfer, Avebury, Aldershot, U.K.
21. Gardner, E. S. (1985). " Exponential smoothing: The state of the art." J. Forecast. ZZZZZZ 0277-6693, 4, 1-28. 10.1002/for.3980040103
22. Gill, P. (1996). " The importance of workforce planning in the NHS in the 1990s." Health Manpow. Manage., 22 (2), 21-25. 10.1108/ 09552069610117936 0955-2065
23. Goh, B. H. (1998). " Forecasting residential construction demand in Singapore: A comparative study of the accuracy of time series, regression and artificial neural network techniques." Eng., Constr., Archit. Manage. ZZZZZZ 0969-9988, 5 (3), 261-275. 10.1108/eb021080
24. Heijke, H., ed. (1994). Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
25. Holt, C. E. (1957). " Forecasting trends and seasonal by exponentially weighted averages." ONR Memorandum No. 52, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh.
26. Hopkins, M. (2002). Labour market planning revisited, Macmillan, New York. 10.1057/9781403920263
27. Hughes, G. (1991). Manpower forecasting: A review of methods and practice in some OECD countries, FS/Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland.
28. Jarque, C. M., and Bera, A. K. (1980). " Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals." Econ. Lett. ECLEDS 0165-1765, 6, 255-259. 10.1016/0165-1765(80) 90024-5
29. Kao, C., and Lee, H. T. (1998). " Demand for industrial management manpower in Taiwan: Viewpoints of quantity and skill." Int. J. Manpow., 19 (8), 592-602. 10.1108/01437729810242253 0143-7720 (Pubitemid 39032093)
30. MacKinnon, J. G. (1991). " Critical values for cointegration tests." Long-run economic relationships: Reading in cointegration, Chap., R. F. Engle, and, C. W. J. Granger, eds., Oxford University Press, New York.
31. Makridakis, S., and Hibon, M. (2000). " The M3 competition." Int. J. Forecast. ZZZZZZ 0169-2070, 16, 451-476. 10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00057-1
32. McLeod, A. I., and Li, W. K. (1983). " Diagnostic checking ARMA time series models using squared-residual autocorrelations." J. Time Ser. Anal. JTSADL 0143-9782, 4, 269-273. 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1983.tb00373.x
33. Neugart, M., and Schömann, K. (2002). " Why forecast and for whom? Some introductory remarks." Forecasting labour markets in OECD countries, M. Neugart, and, K. Schömann, eds., Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, U.K.
34. Notman, D., Norman, G., Flanagan, R., and Agapiou, A. (1998). " A time series analysis of UK annual and quarterly construction output data (1955-95)." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 16, 409-416. 10.1080/014461998372196
35. Pindyck, R. S., and Rubinfeld, D. L. (1998). Econometric models and economic forecasts, 4th Ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
36. Quantitative Micro Software, LLC. (2000). Eviews 4.0 users' guide, Calif.
37. Rosenfeld, Y., and Warszawski, A. (1993). " Forecasting methodology of national demand for construction labour." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 11 (1), 18-29. 10.1080/01446199300000061
38. Said, E. S., and Dickey, D. A. (1984). " Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order." Biometrika BIOKAX 0006-3444, 71 (3), 599-607. 10.1093/biomet/71.3.599
39. Smith, D. A. (2002). " Forecasting future skill needs in Canada." Forecasting labour markets in OECD countries, M. Neugart, and, K. Schömann, eds., Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, U.K.
40. Tang, J. C. S., Karasudhi, P., and Tachopiyagoon, P. (1990). " Thai construction industry: Demand and project." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 8, 249-257.
41. Uwakweh, B. O., and Maloney, W. F. (1991). " Conceptual models for manpower planning for the construction industry in developing countries." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 9 (5), 451-465. 10.1080/ 01446199100000034
42. Van Eijs, P. (1994). " Manpower forecasting in the western world: The current state of the art." ROA-RM-1994/1E, Research Centre for Education and the Labor Market, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
43. The Vocational Training Council (VTC). (2003). " Manpower survey report of the building and civil engineering industry." Rep. Prepared for The Building and Civil Engineering Industry Training Board, Hong Kong.
44. Wilson, R. (1994). " Modelling and forecasting the structure of employment in the United Kingdom." Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education, H. Heijke, ed., Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
45. Winters, P. R. (1960). " Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages." Manage. Sci. MSCIAM 0025-1909, 6, 324-342. 10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324
46. Wong, J. M. W., Chan, A. P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2004). " A critical review of forecasting models to predict manpower demand." Aust. J. Constr. Econ. Build. ZZZZZZ 1445-2634, 4 (2), 43-56.
47. Wong, J. M. W., Chan, A. P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2005). " The quality of projections: Manpower demand for the Hong Kong construction industry.", A. C. Sidwell, ed., Proc., QUT Research Week Int. Conf., Queensland Univ. of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
48. Wong, J. M. W., Chan, A. P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2007). " Forecasting construction manpower demand: A vector error correction model." Build. Environ. BUSCBC 0360-1323, 42 (8), 3030-3041. 10.1016/j.buildenv.2006. 07.024 (Pubitemid 46464482)
49. Wong, M. K. (1996). " Manpower survey, forecast and planning for the construction industry in Hong Kong." Proc., Int. Conf. on Construction Training, Construction Industry Training Authority, Hong Kong, 151-159.