메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 48, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 716-728

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AVERAGING METHOD; AVERAGING TECHNIQUE; CONCEPTUAL MODEL; DATA AND INFORMATION; DEATH VALLEY; EVALUATING MODELS; FLAT AREA; FLOW SYSTEMS; GEOLOGICAL INTERPRETATION; GEOLOGICAL MODELS; GROUNDWATER FLOW MODEL; GROUNDWATER MODELING; GROUNDWATER MODELS; HYDRAULIC HEADS; HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS; HYDROGEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS; INFORMATION CRITERION; MODEL AVERAGING; MODEL PARAMETERS; MODEL PREDICTION; MODEL UNCERTAINTIES; MODELING COMPONENT; MONTE CARLO SIMULATION; PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTIES; PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY; RECHARGE ESTIMATES; WEIGHTED RESIDUALS;

EID: 77954990181     PISSN: 0017467X     EISSN: 17456584     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00633.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (113)

References (44)
  • 1
    • 0016355478 scopus 로고
    • A new look at statistical model identification
    • AC
    • Akaike H. A new look at statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 1974, AC-19:716-722.
    • (1974) IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control , vol.19 , pp. 716-722
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 3
    • 34247638849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System, Nevada and California-Hydrogeologic Framework and Transient Ground-Water Flow Model
    • Belcher WR. (ed)., U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Report 2004-5205., Reston, Virginia, USGS
    • Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System, Nevada and California-Hydrogeologic Framework and Transient Ground-Water Flow Model. 2004, Belcher WR. (ed)., U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Report 2004-5205., Reston, Virginia, USGS
    • (2004)
  • 5
    • 33644526990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
    • Beven K. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 2006, 320:18-36.
    • (2006) Journal of Hydrology , vol.320 , pp. 18-36
    • Beven, K.1
  • 6
    • 0035426008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modeling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology
    • no., DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8
    • Beven K, Freer J. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modeling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology 2001, 249(1-4):11-29. no., DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00421-8
    • (2001) Journal of Hydrology , vol.249 , Issue.1-4 , pp. 11-29
    • Beven, K.1    Freer, J.2
  • 7
    • 0027009437 scopus 로고
    • The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction
    • no., DOI:10.1002/hyp.3360060305
    • Beven K, Binley A. The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes 1992, 6(5):279-283. no., DOI:10.1002/hyp.3360060305
    • (1992) Hydrological Processes , vol.6 , Issue.5 , pp. 279-283
    • Beven, K.1    Binley, A.2
  • 8
    • 17144430044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conceptualization model problem-surprise
    • Bredehoeft JD. The conceptualization model problem-surprise. Hydrogeology Journal 2005, 13:37-46.
    • (2005) Hydrogeology Journal , vol.13 , pp. 37-46
    • Bredehoeft, J.D.1
  • 9
    • 0642366931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From models to performance assessment: The conceptualization problem
    • no.
    • Bredehoeft JD. From models to performance assessment: The conceptualization problem. Ground Water 2003, 41(5):571-577. no.
    • (2003) Ground Water , vol.41 , Issue.5 , pp. 571-577
    • Bredehoeft, J.D.1
  • 10
    • 0022923343 scopus 로고
    • Estimation of aquifer parameters under transient and steady state conditions: 3. Application to synthetic and field data.
    • no.
    • Carrera J, Neuman SP. Estimation of aquifer parameters under transient and steady state conditions: 3. Application to synthetic and field data. Water Resources Research 1986, 22(2):228-242. no.
    • (1986) Water Resources Research , vol.22 , Issue.2 , pp. 228-242
    • Carrera, J.1    Neuman, S.P.2
  • 11
    • 49249097987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development and uncertainty analysis of empirical recharge prediction models for Nevada's Desert basins
    • Masters thesis, University of Nevada. Reston, Virginia: USGS
    • Epstein B. Development and uncertainty analysis of empirical recharge prediction models for Nevada's Desert basins. 2004, Masters thesis, University of Nevada. Reston, Virginia: USGS
    • (2004)
    • Epstein, B.1
  • 12
    • 34548142151 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing alternative ground water models using cross validation and other methods
    • no.
    • Foglia L, Mehl SW, Hill MC, Perona P, Burlando P. Testing alternative ground water models using cross validation and other methods. Ground Water 2007, 45(5):627-641. no.
    • (2007) Ground Water , vol.45 , Issue.5 , pp. 627-641
    • Foglia, L.1    Mehl, S.W.2    Hill, M.C.3    Perona, P.4    Burlando, P.5
  • 13
    • 0003395132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model-User guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process
    • U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-92. Reston, Virginia: USGS
    • Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC, McDonald MG. MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model-User guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process. 2000, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-92. Reston, Virginia: USGS
    • (2000)
    • Harbaugh, A.W.1    Banta, E.R.2    Hill, M.C.3    McDonald, M.G.4
  • 14
    • 0344898291 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Capture zone, travel time, and solute-transport predictions using inverse modeling and different geological models
    • Harrar WG, Sonnenborg TO, Henriksen HJ. Capture zone, travel time, and solute-transport predictions using inverse modeling and different geological models. Hydrogeology Journal 2003, 11:536-548.
    • (2003) Hydrogeology Journal , vol.11 , pp. 536-548
    • Harrar, W.G.1    Sonnenborg, T.O.2    Henriksen, H.J.3
  • 15
    • 33144456808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed parameter watershed model for the Death Valley Region, Nevada and California
    • Water Resources Investigations Report 03-4090., Sacramento, California, U.S. Geological Survey
    • Hevesi JA, Flint AL, Flint LE. Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed parameter watershed model for the Death Valley Region, Nevada and California. 2003, Water Resources Investigations Report 03-4090., Sacramento, California, U.S. Geological Survey
    • (2003)
    • Hevesi, J.A.1    Flint, A.L.2    Flint, L.E.3
  • 17
    • 0043045215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater model-user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter estimation processes and three post-processing programs
    • USGS Open-File Report 00-184., Reston, Virginia, USGS
    • Hill MC, Banta ER, Harbaugh AW, Anderman ER. MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater model-user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter estimation processes and three post-processing programs. 2000, USGS Open-File Report 00-184., Reston, Virginia, USGS
    • (2000)
    • Hill, M.C.1    Banta, E.R.2    Harbaugh, A.W.3    Anderman, E.R.4
  • 19
    • 77955933288 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model uncertainty-parametric uncertainty versus conceptual models
    • no.
    • Hojberg AL, Refsgaard JC. Model uncertainty-parametric uncertainty versus conceptual models. Water Science and Technology 2005, 25(6):153-160. no.
    • (2005) Water Science and Technology , vol.25 , Issue.6 , pp. 153-160
    • Hojberg, A.L.1    Refsgaard, J.C.2
  • 20
    • 70349119250 scopus 로고
    • Regression and time series model selection in small sample
    • no.
    • Hurvich CM, Tsai C-L. Regression and time series model selection in small sample. Biometrika 1989, 76(2):99-104. no.
    • (1989) Biometrika , vol.76 , Issue.2 , pp. 99-104
    • Hurvich, C.M.1    Tsai, C.-L.2
  • 22
    • 0003692738 scopus 로고
    • Groundwater in White River Valley, White Pine, Nye, and Lincoln Counties, Nevada. No. 8, State of Nevada Office of the State Engineer prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Interior Geological Survey
    • Carson City, Nevada
    • Maxey GB, Eakin TE. Groundwater in White River Valley, White Pine, Nye, and Lincoln Counties, Nevada. No. 8, State of Nevada Office of the State Engineer prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Interior Geological Survey. 1949, Carson City, Nevada
    • (1949)
    • Maxey, G.B.1    Eakin, T.E.2
  • 23
    • 0348225037 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of alternative conceptual-mathematical models
    • no., DOI: 10.1007/s00477-003-0151-7
    • Neuman SP. Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of alternative conceptual-mathematical models. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 2003, 17(5):291-305. no., DOI: 10.1007/s00477-003-0151-7
    • (2003) Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment , vol.17 , Issue.5 , pp. 291-305
    • Neuman, S.P.1
  • 25
    • 77955968697 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MMA: A Computer Code for Multi-Model Analysis
    • U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods TM6-E3. Reston, Virginia: USGS
    • Poeter EP, Hill MC. MMA: A Computer Code for Multi-Model Analysis. 2007, U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods TM6-E3. Reston, Virginia: USGS
    • (2007)
    • Poeter, E.P.1    Hill, M.C.2
  • 26
    • 22244490375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel ranking and inference in groundwater modeling
    • no.
    • Poeter E, Anderson DR. Multimodel ranking and inference in groundwater modeling. Ground Water 2005, 43(4):597-605. no.
    • (2005) Ground Water , vol.43 , Issue.4 , pp. 597-605
    • Poeter, E.1    Anderson, D.R.2
  • 31
    • 64049097964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modeling
    • no.
    • Rojas R, Feyen L, Dassargues A. Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modeling. Hydrological Processes 2009, 23(8):1131-1146. no.
    • (2009) Hydrological Processes , vol.23 , Issue.8 , pp. 1131-1146
    • Rojas, R.1    Feyen, L.2    Dassargues, A.3
  • 32
    • 59649124252 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modeling: Combining generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and Bayesian model averaging
    • DOI:10.1029/2008WR006908
    • Rojas R, Feyen L, Dassargues A. Conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modeling: Combining generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and Bayesian model averaging. Water Resources Research 2008, 44:W12418. DOI:10.1029/2008WR006908
    • (2008) Water Resources Research , vol.44
    • Rojas, R.1    Feyen, L.2    Dassargues, A.3
  • 33
    • 33748333688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • DOE/NV/11508-37, Publication No. 45164. Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office., Las Vegas, Nevada, Desert Research Institute
    • Russell CE, Minor T. Reconnaissance Estimates of Recharge Based on an Elevation-dependent Chloride Mass-balance Approach 2002, DOE/NV/11508-37, Publication No. 45164. Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office., Las Vegas, Nevada, Desert Research Institute
    • (2002) Reconnaissance Estimates of Recharge Based on an Elevation-dependent Chloride Mass-balance Approach
    • Russell, C.E.1    Minor, T.2
  • 34
    • 0024570673 scopus 로고
    • Estimation of spatial covariance structures by adjoint state maximum likelihood cross-validation: 2. Synthetic experiments.
    • no.
    • Samper FJ, Neuman SP. Estimation of spatial covariance structures by adjoint state maximum likelihood cross-validation: 2. Synthetic experiments. Water Resources Research 1989, 25(3):363-371. no.
    • (1989) Water Resources Research , vol.25 , Issue.3 , pp. 363-371
    • Samper, F.J.1    Neuman, S.P.2
  • 35
    • 0036488817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Choosing appropriate techniques for quantifying groundwater recharge
    • DOI: 10.1007/s10040-001-0176-2
    • Scanlon BR, Healy RW, Cook PG. Choosing appropriate techniques for quantifying groundwater recharge. Hydrogeology Journal 2002, 10:18-39. DOI: 10.1007/s10040-001-0176-2
    • (2002) Hydrogeology Journal , vol.10 , pp. 18-39
    • Scanlon, B.R.1    Healy, R.W.2    Cook, P.G.3
  • 36
    • 0000120766 scopus 로고
    • Estimating the dimension of a model
    • no.
    • Schwarz G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Annual Statistics 1978, 6(2):461-464. no.
    • (1978) Annual Statistics , vol.6 , Issue.2 , pp. 461-464
    • Schwarz, G.1
  • 37
    • 0022075521 scopus 로고
    • Identification of parameter structure in groundwater inverse problem
    • no.
    • Sun N-Z, Yeh W W-G. Identification of parameter structure in groundwater inverse problem. Water Resources Research 1985, 21(6):869-883. no.
    • (1985) Water Resources Research , vol.21 , Issue.6 , pp. 869-883
    • Sun, N.-Z.1    Yeh, W.W.-G.2
  • 38
    • 34547119954 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of concentrations in a multi-aquifer system
    • Troldborg L, Refsgaard JC, Jensen KH, Engesgaard P. The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of concentrations in a multi-aquifer system. Hydrogeology Journal 2007, 15:843-860.
    • (2007) Hydrogeology Journal , vol.15 , pp. 843-860
    • Troldborg, L.1    Refsgaard, J.C.2    Jensen, K.H.3    Engesgaard, P.4
  • 39
    • 54849437518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple parameterization for hydraulic conductivity identification
    • no.
    • Tsai F T-C, Li X. Multiple parameterization for hydraulic conductivity identification. Ground Water 2008, 46(6):851-864. no.
    • (2008) Ground Water , vol.46 , Issue.6 , pp. 851-864
    • Tsai, F.T.-C.1    Li, X.2
  • 40
    • 0037372140 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A combinatorial optimization scheme for parameter structure identification in ground water modeling
    • no.
    • Tsai F T-C, Sun NZ, Yeh W W-G. A combinatorial optimization scheme for parameter structure identification in ground water modeling. Ground Water 2003, 41(2):156-169. no.
    • (2003) Ground Water , vol.41 , Issue.2 , pp. 156-169
    • Tsai, F.T.-C.1    Sun, N.Z.2    Yeh, W.W.-G.3
  • 41
    • 43449120662 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expert elicitation of recharge model probabilities for the Death Valley regional flow system
    • DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.001
    • Ye M, Pohlmann KF, Chapman JB. Expert elicitation of recharge model probabilities for the Death Valley regional flow system. Journal of Hydrology 2008a, 354:102-115. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.001
    • (2008) Journal of Hydrology , vol.354 , pp. 102-115
    • Ye, M.1    Pohlmann, K.F.2    Chapman, J.B.3
  • 42
    • 43249109413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On model selection criteria in multimodel analysis
    • no., DOI:10.1029/2008WR006803
    • Ye M, Meyer PD, Neuman SP. On model selection criteria in multimodel analysis. Water Resources Research 2008b, 44(3):W03428. no., DOI:10.1029/2008WR006803
    • (2008) Water Resources Research , vol.44 , Issue.3
    • Ye, M.1    Meyer, P.D.2    Neuman, S.P.3
  • 43
    • 31444456874 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity analysis and assessment of prior model probabilities in MLBMA with application to unsaturated fractured tuff
    • no., DOI:10.1029/2005WR004260
    • Ye M, Neuman SP, Meyer PD, Pohlmann KF. Sensitivity analysis and assessment of prior model probabilities in MLBMA with application to unsaturated fractured tuff. Water Resources Research 2005, 41(12):W12429. no., DOI:10.1029/2005WR004260
    • (2005) Water Resources Research , vol.41 , Issue.12
    • Ye, M.1    Neuman, S.P.2    Meyer, P.D.3    Pohlmann, K.F.4
  • 44
    • 2942700220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of spatial variability models in unsaturated fractured tuff
    • no., DOI:10.1029/2003WR002557
    • Ye M, Neuman SP, Meyer PD. Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of spatial variability models in unsaturated fractured tuff. Water Resources Research 2004, 40(5):W05113. no., DOI:10.1029/2003WR002557
    • (2004) Water Resources Research , vol.40 , Issue.5
    • Ye, M.1    Neuman, S.P.2    Meyer, P.D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.