Seasonal trends in air temperature and precipitation in IPCC AR4 GCM output for Kansas, USA: Evaluation and implications

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 30, Issue 8, 2010, Pages 1178-1193

  Brunsell, N A ^a   Jones, A R ^a   Jackson, T L ^a   Feddema, J J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

Author keywords

Grasslands; Precipitation; Regional climate; Temperature

Indexed keywords

20TH CENTURY; AGRICULTURAL LAND USE; AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT; FUTURE CLIMATE; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; GRASSLANDS; GRID CELLS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL; METEOROLOGICAL DATA; MODEL OUTPUTS; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; NATURAL ECOSYSTEM; PRECIPITATION PATTERNS; REGIONAL CLIMATE; ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS; SEASONAL TRENDS; SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; TEMPERATURE TRENDS;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; BLOCK CODES; CLIMATE MODELS; ECONOMICS; ERRORS; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; METEOROLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; GRASSLAND; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONAL VARIATION; TREND ANALYSIS;

KANSAS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77954411685     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1958     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Adegoke JO, Pielke R, Carleton AM. 2007. Observational and modeling studies of the impacts of agriculture-related land use change on planetary boundary layer processes in the central US. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 203-215
2. Adegoke JO, Pielke RA, Eastman J, Mahmood R, Hubbard KG. 2003. Impact of irrigation on midsummer surface fluxes and temperature under dry synoptic conditions: a regional atmospheric model study of the U.S. high plains. Monthly Weather Review 131: 556-564.
3. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Ambenje P, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal Geophysical Research 111: D05109.
4. Alward RD, Detling JK, Milchunas DG. 1999. Grassland vegetation changes and nocturnal global warming. Science 283: 229-231.
5. Bonan GB. 1999. Frost followed the plow: impacts of deforestation on the climate of the United States. Ecological Applications 9: 1305-1315.
6. Brunsell NA. 2006. Characterization of land-surface precipitation feedback regimes with remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment 100: 200-211.
7. Carter DB, Mather JR. 1966. Climatic classification for environmental biology. Publications in Climatology 19(1): 305-395.
8. Changnon SA, Kunkel KE, Winstanley D. 2002. Climate factors that caused the unique tall grass prairie in the Central United States. Physical Geography 23(4): 259-280.
9. Claussen M, Brovkin V, Ganapolski A. 2001. Biogeophysical versus biogeochemical feedbacks of large-scale land cover change. Geophysical Research Letters 28(6): 1011-1014
10. Covich AP, Fritz SC, Lamb PJ, Marzolf RD, Matthews WJ, Poiani KA, Prepas EE, Richman MB, Winter TC. 1997. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America. Hydrological Processes 11: 993-1021.
11. Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187.
12. Dirmeyer PA, Kinter JL III. 2009. The 'Maya Express': floods in the U.S. Midwest. EQS Transactions 90(12): 101-102.
13. Dodds WK, Gido K, Whiles MR, Fritz KM, Matthews MJ. 2004. Life on the edge: the ecology of Great Plains prairie streams. BioScience 54: 205-216.
14. Easterling WE, Crosson PR, Rosenberg NJ, McKenney MS, Katz LA, Lemon KM. 1993. Agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. Climatic Change 24: 23-61.
15. Fay PA, Carlisle JD, Knapp AK, Blair JM, Collins SL. 2003. Productivity responses to altered rainfall patterns in a C4-dominated grassland. Oecologia 137: 245-251.
16. Feddema J, Oleson K, Bonan G, Mearns L, Washington W, Meehl G, Nychka D. 2005a. A comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representations. Climatic Dynamics 25: 581-609.
17. Feddema JJ, Oleson KW, Bonan GB, Mearns LO, Buja LE, Meehl GA, Washington WM. 2005b. The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science 310: 1674-1678.
18. Feng S, Oglesby RJ, Rowe CM, Loope DB, Hu Q. 2008. Atlantic and Pacific SST influences on medieval drought in North America simulated by the community atmospheric model. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D11101.
19. Foster BL, Kindscher K, Houseman GR, Murphy CA. Effects of hay management and native sowing on community structure and biomass: implications for the restoration of former HILD grasslands to LIHD hay meadows. Ecological Applications: (in press).
20. Feddema JJ. 2005. A revised thornthwaite type global climate classification. Physical Geography 26(6): 442-466.
21. Frank DA, Inouye RS. 1994. Temporal variation in actual evapotranspiration of terrestrial ecosystems: patterns and ecological implications. Journal of Biogeography 21: 401-411.
22. Garbrecht JD, Rossel FE. 2002. Decade-scale precipitation increase in the Great Plains at the end of the 20th century. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 7(1): 64-75.
23. Garbrecht JD, Van Liew M, Brown GO. 2004. Trends in precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration in the Great Plains of the United States. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 9(5): 360-367.
24. Grundstein A. 2008. Assessing climate change in the contiguous United States using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification scheme. Professional Geographer 60(3): 398-412.
25. Grundstein A. 2009. Evaluation of climate change over the continental United States using a moisture index. Climatic Change 93(1): 103-115.
26. Heisler JL, Briggs JM, Knapp AK. 2003. Long-term patterns of shrub expansion in a C4-dominated grassland: fire frequency and the dynamics of shrub cover and abundance. American Journal of Botany 90: 423-428.
27. Heistermann M, Muller C, Ronneberger K. 2006. Land in sight? Achievements, deficits and potentials of continental to global scale land-use modeling. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114: 141-158.
28. Hopkins A, del Prado A. 2007. Implications of climate change for grassland in Europe: impacts, adaptations and mitigation options: a review. Grass and Forage Science 62: 118-126.
29. Howden SM, Soussana JF, Tubiello FN, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H. 2007. Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 104: 19691-19696, DOI:10.1073pnas.0701890104.
30. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. Nakićenović N and Swart R (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, USA 599 pp.
31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland.
32. Jones AR, Brunsell NA. 2009a. A scaling analysis of soil moisture- precipitation interactions in a regional climate model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (in press). DOI:10.1007/s00704-009-0109-x, in press.
33. Jones AR, Brunsell NA. 2009b. Energy balance partitioning and net radiation as controls on soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks. Earth Interactions 13: 1-25, DOI:10.1175/2009EI270.1.
34. Knapp AK, Briggs JM, Koelliker JK. 2001. Frequency and extent of water limitation to primary production in a mesic temperate grassland. Ecosystems 4: 19-28.
35. Knapp AK, Smith MD. 2001. Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production. Science 291: 481-484.
36. Köppen W. 1900. Versuch einer Klassification der Klimate vorzugsweise nach ihren Beziehungen zur Pflanzenwelt (Attempted climate classification in relation to plant distributions). Geographische Zeitschrift 6: 593-611-657-679.
37. Koster RD, Dirmeyer PA, Guo Z, Bonan G, Chan E, Cox P, Gordon CT, Kanae S, Kowalczyk E, Lawrence D, Liu P, Lu CH, Malyshev S, McAvaney B, Mitchell K, Mocko D, Oki T, Oleson K, Pitman A, Sud YC, Taylor CM, Verseghy D, Vasic R, Xue Y, Yamada T. 2004. Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305: 1138-1140.
38. Luo Y. 2007. Terrestrial carbon-cycle feedback to climate warming. Annual Review of Ecology and Evolutionary Systematics 38: 683-712.
39. Mahmood R, Hubbard KG, Carlson C. 2004. Modification of growingseason surface temperature records in the northern Great Plains due to land-use transformation: verification of modelling results and implication for global climate change. International Journal of Climatology 24: 311-327.
40. Marotz GA, Clark J, Henry J, Standfast R. 1975. Cloud fields over irrigated areas in southwestern Kansas - data and speculations. Professional Geographer 27: 457-461.
41. McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL. 2004. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 101: 4136-4141.
42. McMahon PB, Dennehy KF, Michel RL, Sophocleous MA, Ellett KM, Hurlbut DB. 2003. Water movement through thick unsaturated zones overlying the Central High Plains Aquifer, Southwestern Kansas, 2000-2001. USGS Water Resources Investigation Report 03-4171: 32.
43. Moore N, Rojstaczer S. 2001. Irrigation-induced rainfall and the Great Plains. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40: 1297-1309.
44. Nippert JB, Knapp AK, Briggs JM. 2006. Intra-annual rainfall variability and grassland productivity: can the past predict the future? Plant Ecology 184: 65-74.
45. Oke TR. 1982. The energetic basis of the urban heat island. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 108: 1-24.
46. Olesen JE, Bindi M. 2002. Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy 16: 239-262.
47. Palmer WC. 1965. Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.
48. Park S, Feddema JJ, Egbert SL. 2003. Impacts of hydrologic soil properties on drought detection with MODIS thermal data. Remote Sensing of Environment 89(1): 53-62.
49. Patterson J. 2008. An Analysis of Spring Bird Migration Phenology in Kansas. MA Thesis, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas.
50. Peterson TC, Vose R, Schmoyer R, Razuvaev V. 1998. Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data. International Journal of Climatology 18: 1169-1179.
51. Peterson TC, Vose RS. 1997. An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 2837-2849.
52. Pielke R, Nielsen-Gammon J, Davey C, Angel J, Bliss O, Doesken N, Cai M, Fall S, Niyogi D, Gallo K, Hale R, Hubbard KG, Lin XM, Li H, Raman S. 2007. Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurement sites for climate change assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 913-928.
53. Pielke RA, Stohlgren T, Schell L, Parton W, Doesken N, Redmond K, Moeny J, McKee T, Kittel TGF. 2002. Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: an example from eastern Colorado, USA. International Journal of Climatology 22: 421-434.
54. Robeson SM. 2004. Trends in time-varying percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature over North America. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L04203.
55. Rozoff CM, Cotton WR, Adegoke JO. 2003. Simulation of St. Louis, Missouri, land use impacts on thunderstorms. Journal of Applied Meteorology 42: 716-738.
56. Sacks WJ, Schimel DS, Monson RK. 2007. Coupling between carbon cycling and climate in a high-elevation subalpine forest: a model-data fusion analysis. Oecologia 151: 54-68.
57. Samson F, Knopf F. 1994. Prairie conservation in North America. BioScience 44: 418-421.
58. Scanlon BR, Reedy RC, Stonestrom DA, Prudic DE, Dennehy KF 2005. Impact of land use and land cover change on groundwater recharge and quality in the southwestern US. Global Change Biology 11: 1577-1593.
59. Segal M, Pan Z, Turner RW, Takle ES. 1998. On the potential impact of irrigated areas in North America on summer rainfall caused by large-scale systems. Journal of Applied Meteorology 37: 325-331.
60. Skaggs RH. 1978. Climatic change and persistence in western Kansas. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 68: 73-80.
61. Stahle DW, Cook ER, Villanueva D ́iaz J, Fye FK, Burnette DJ, Griff RD, Acu ̃na Soto RR, Seager R, Heim RR Jr. 2009. Early 21stcentury drought in Mexico. EOS Transactions 90(11): 89-90.
62. Tebaldi C, Knutti R. 2007. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 365: 2053-2075.
63. Thornthwaite CW. 1943. Problems in the classification of climates. Geographical Review 33(2): 233-255.
64. Thornthwaite CW. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review 38(1): 55-94.
65. Trewartha GT, Horn LH. 1980. An Introduction to Climate, 5th edn. McGraw-Hill: New York.
66. US Global Change Research Program, National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2001. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
67. Venkatatamana S, Loope DB, Swinehart JB, Mason JA, Oglesby RJ, Rowe CR. 2006. Large wind shift on the great plains during the medieval warm period. Science 313: 345-347.
68. Volk M, Niklaus PA, Korner C. 2000. Soil moisture effects determine CO2 responses of grassland species. Oecologia 125: 380-388.
69. Woodhouse CA, Overpeck JT. 1998. 2000 years of drought variability in the Central United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(12): 2693-2714.
70. White MA, Nemani RR, Thornton PE, Running SW. 2002. Satellite evidence of phenological differences between urbanized and rural areas of the eastern United States deciduous broadleaf forests. Ecosystems 5: 260-277.