Grassland vegetation changes and nocturnal global warming

Science

Volumn 283, Issue 5399, 1999, Pages 229-231

  Alward, Richard D ^a,b   Detling, James K ^a   Milchunas, Daniel G ^a  

^a Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; GRASSLAND; VEGETATION DYNAMICS;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ARTICLE; ECOSYSTEM; GRASS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; METEOROLOGY; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; VEGETATION;

BOUTELOUA GRACILIS;

EID: 0033534709     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.283.5399.229     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1995).
2. G. Kukla, T. Karl, M. Riches, Eds., Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range: Proceedings of the International MINIMAX WORKSHOP, College Park, MD, 27 to 30 September 1993 [U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, DC, 1994]; T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, R. W. Knight, P. Y. Hughes, in Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaiser, R. J. Sepanski, F. W. Stoss, Eds. (ORNL/ CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 1994), pp. 686-736; D. R. Easterling et al., Science 277, 364 (1997).
3. G. Kukla, T. Karl, M. Riches, Eds., Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range: Proceedings of the International MINIMAX WORKSHOP, College Park, MD, 27 to 30 September 1993 [U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, DC, 1994]; T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, R. W. Knight, P. Y. Hughes, in Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaiser, R. J. Sepanski, F. W. Stoss, Eds. (ORNL/ CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 1994), pp. 686-736; D. R. Easterling et al., Science 277, 364 (1997).
4. G. Kukla, T. Karl, M. Riches, Eds., Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range: Proceedings of the International MINIMAX WORKSHOP, College Park, MD, 27 to 30 September 1993 [U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, DC, 1994]; T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, R. W. Knight, P. Y. Hughes, in Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaiser, R. J. Sepanski, F. W. Stoss, Eds. (ORNL/ CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 1994), pp. 686-736; D. R. Easterling et al., Science 277, 364 (1997).
5. A. Henderson-Sellars, GeoJournal 27, 255 (1992); A. Dai, A .D. Del Genio, I. Y. Fung, Nature 386, 665 (1997).
6. A. Henderson-Sellars, GeoJournal 27, 255 (1992); A. Dai, A .D. Del Genio, I. Y. Fung, Nature 386, 665 (1997).
7. Y. Yang and N. E. Stamp, Oecologia 104, 225 (1995).
8. M. Seddigh, G. D. Jolliff, J. H. Orf, Crop Sci. 29, 400 (1989); C. A. Zeiher, P. W. Brown, J. C. Silvertooth, N. Matumba, N. Milton, in Cotton: A College of Agriculture Report, J. Silvertooth, Ed. (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 1994), pp. 89-96; P. Manunta and M. B. Kirkham, J. Agron. Crop Sci. 176, 267 (1996).
9. M. Seddigh, G. D. Jolliff, J. H. Orf, Crop Sci. 29, 400 (1989); C. A. Zeiher, P. W. Brown, J. C. Silvertooth, N. Matumba, N. Milton, in Cotton: A College of Agriculture Report, J. Silvertooth, Ed. (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 1994), pp. 89-96; P. Manunta and M. B. Kirkham, J. Agron. Crop Sci. 176, 267 (1996).
10. M. Seddigh, G. D. Jolliff, J. H. Orf, Crop Sci. 29, 400 (1989); C. A. Zeiher, P. W. Brown, J. C. Silvertooth, N. Matumba, N. Milton, in Cotton: A College of Agriculture Report, J. Silvertooth, Ed. (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 1994), pp. 89-96; P. Manunta and M. B. Kirkham, J. Agron. Crop Sci. 176, 267 (1996).
11. H. A. Mooney, G. W. Koch, C. B. Field, in Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range, G. Kukla, T. Karl, M. Riches, Eds. (DOE, Washington, DC, 1994), pp. 467-484.
12. R. A. Kerr, Science 255, 682 (1992); ibid. 268, 1567 (1995); ibid. 270, 1565 (1995).
13. R. A. Kerr, Science 255, 682 (1992); ibid. 268, 1567 (1995); ibid. 270, 1565 (1995).
14. R. A. Kerr, Science 255, 682 (1992); ibid. 268, 1567 (1995); ibid. 270, 1565 (1995).
15. M. B. Coughenour and D.-X. Chen, Ecol. Appl. 7, 803 (1997); R. B. Myneni, C. D. Keeling, C. J. Tucker, G. Asrar, R. R. Nemani, Nature 386, 698 (1997).
16. M. B. Coughenour and D.-X. Chen, Ecol. Appl. 7, 803 (1997); R. B. Myneni, C. D. Keeling, C. J. Tucker, G. Asrar, R. R. Nemani, Nature 386, 698 (1997).
17. For site descriptions, see D. G. Milchunas, W. K. Lauenroth, P. L. Chapman, M. K. Kazempour, Vegetatio 80, 11 (1989); W. K. Lauenroth and D. G. Milchunas, in Ecosystems of the World, R. T. Coupland, Ed. (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1991), vol. 8A, chap. 11.
18. For site descriptions, see D. G. Milchunas, W. K. Lauenroth, P. L. Chapman, M. K. Kazempour, Vegetatio 80, 11 (1989); W. K. Lauenroth and D. G. Milchunas, in Ecosystems of the World, R. T. Coupland, Ed. (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1991), vol. 8A, chap. 11.
19. MAX were used to calculate monthly averages; monthly data were used to calculate seasonal averages identified as winter (January-March), spring (April-June), summer (July-September) and the previous fall (October-December).
20. D. G. Milchunas, W. K. Lauenroth, P. L. Chapman, M. K. Kazempour, J. Veg. Sci. 1, 375 (1990); D. G. Milchunas and W. K. Lauenroth, Ecology 73, 593 (1992); Ecol. Appl. 5, 452 (1995).
21. D. G. Milchunas, W. K. Lauenroth, P. L. Chapman, M. K. Kazempour, J. Veg. Sci. 1, 375 (1990); D. G. Milchunas and W. K. Lauenroth, Ecology 73, 593 (1992); Ecol. Appl. 5, 452 (1995).
22. D. G. Milchunas, W. K. Lauenroth, P. L. Chapman, M. K. Kazempour, J. Veg. Sci. 1, 375 (1990); D. G. Milchunas and W. K. Lauenroth, Ecology 73, 593 (1992); Ecol. Appl. 5, 452 (1995).
23. 2 circular quadrats was harvested, sorted, and dried. We restricted analyses of ANPP to data collected in 1983-1992, because the method used during these years was different from that used before 1983.
24. The following species and functional groups were represented in the analyses: Artemesia frigida, Aristida longiseta, Bouteloua gracilis, Carex eleocharis, Kochia scoparia, Opuntia polyacantha, Sitanion hystrix, and Sphaeralcea coccinea, warm-season grasses, cool-season grasses and sedges, annual grasses, all grasses and sedges combined, forbs (native herbaceous dicots), exotic (nonnative) forbs, dwarf shrubs, and total biomass from all species. Species richness was also analyzed.
25. O. E. Sala, W. J. Parton, L. A. Joyce, W. K. Lauenroth, Ecology 69, 40 (1988); D. G. Milchunas, J. R. Forwood, W. K. Lauenroth, J. Range Manage. 47, 133 (1994).
26. O. E. Sala, W. J. Parton, L. A. Joyce, W. K. Lauenroth, Ecology 69, 40 (1988); D. G. Milchunas, J. R. Forwood, W. K. Lauenroth, J. Range Manage. 47, 133 (1994).
27. The timing of vegetation measurements determined appropriate precipitation variables. Plant density was measured in early July. Although in July, August, and September potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation, these dry months would not affect July plant density. Thus, in addition to total annual (January-December) precipitation, "seasonal" precipitation totals included "useful" annual precipitation (October-June) and winter (October-March) and spring (April-June) precipitation. However, ANPP was measured in September; thus the seasonal precipitation totals used in the ANPP analyses included total annual (January-December), useful annual (October-September), winter (October-March), spring (April-June), and summer (July-September) precipitation.
28. Significant correlations were identified with a stepwise model-building routine [SAS, version 6.11 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, 1996); PROC REG with STEPWISE method; enter and exit α = 0.1]. Plant density values were log-transformed. We report the single factor that explained the most variation in each species' responses.
29. R. W. Rice and M. Vavra, US IBP Grassland Biome Technical Report No. 103 (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 1971).
30. D. A. Wedin and D. Tilman, Science 274, 1720 (1996); A. N. Cohen and J. T. Carlton, ibid. 279, 555 (1998); T. J. Stohlgren et al., Ecol. Monogr., in press.
31. D. A. Wedin and D. Tilman, Science 274, 1720 (1996); A. N. Cohen and J. T. Carlton, ibid. 279, 555 (1998); T. J. Stohlgren et al., Ecol. Monogr., in press.
32. D. A. Wedin and D. Tilman, Science 274, 1720 (1996); A. N. Cohen and J. T. Carlton, ibid. 279, 555 (1998); T. J. Stohlgren et al., Ecol. Monogr., in press.
33. We thank T. J. Minnick for bringing the data sets to our attention and H. W. Polley for comments that improved the manuscript. Support included a NASA Graduate Student Fellowship in Global Change Research to R.D.A., the Shortgrass Steppe Long Term Ecological Research Project (NSF grants DEB-9632852 and BSR-8114822), a National Park Service Agreement (1268-2-9004, CEGR-R92-0043, 174), and NSF grant DEB-9708596. The Central Plains Experimental Range is administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service.