Predicting spatio-temporal recolonization of large carnivore populations and livestock depredation risk: Wolves in the Italian Alps

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 47, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 789-798

  Marucco, F ^a,b   McIntire, E J B ^c  

^a Centro Gestione Conservazione Grandi Carnivori   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITÉ LAVAL   (Canada)

Author keywords

Adaptive management; Canis lupus; Recolonization; SELES; Social structure; Spatially explicit individual based model; Wolf

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CANID; CARNIVORE; CONSERVATION STATUS; DISPERSAL; HABITAT CORRIDOR; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION; HABITAT SELECTION; LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY; LIVESTOCK; MODEL VALIDATION; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION SIZE; PREDATION RISK; PRIORITIZATION; RECOLONIZATION;

ALPS; ITALY;

CANIDAE; CANIS FAMILIARIS; CANIS LUPUS;

EID: 77954370014     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: 13652664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01831.x     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Adriaensen F, Chardon JP, De Blust G, Swinnen E, Villalba S, Gulinck H, Matthysen E. The application of " least-cost" modelling as a functional landscape model. Landscape and urban planning 2003, 64:233-247.
2. Boyce MS, Vernier PR, Nielsen SE, Schmiegelow FKA. Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecological Modelling 2002, 157:281-300.
3. Boyd D, Pletscher DH. Characteristics of dispersal in a colonizing wolf population in the Central Rocky Mountains. Journal of Wildlife Management 1999, 63:1094-1108.
4. Burgman MA, Possingham HP. Population viability analysis for conservation: the good, the bad, and the underscribed. Genetics, Demography, and Viability of Fragmented Populations 2000, 68-72. Young AG, Clarke GM. eds, pp, Cambridge University Press, London
5. Caro TM, Durant SM. The importance of behavioral ecology for conservation biology: examples from Serengeti carnivores. Serengeti II: Dynamics, Management, and Conservation of an Ecosystem 1995, 451-472. Sinclair ARE, Arcese P. eds, pp, University of Chicago Press, Chicago
6. Carroll C, Phillips MK, Schumaker NH, Smith DW. Impacts of landscape change on wolf restoration success: planning a reintroduction program based on static and dynamic spatial models. Conservation Biology 2003, 17:536-548.
7. Chapron G, Legendre P, Ferriere R, Clobert J, Haight RG. Conservation and control strategies for the wolf (Canis lupus) in Western Europe based on demographic models. Comptes Rendus Biologies 2003, 326:575-587.
8. Corsi F, Duprè E, Boitani L. A large-scale model of wolf distribution in Italy for conservation planning. Conservation Biology 1999, 13:150-159.
9. DeAngelis DL, Mooij WM, Nott MP, Bennetts RE. Individual-based models: tracking variability among individuals. Modeling in Natural Resource Management 2001, 171-196. Shenk T, Franklin AB, eds, pp, Island Press, Washington DC
10. Duke DL, Hebblewhite M, Callaghan C, Percy M, Paquet PC. Restoration of a large carnivore corridor in Banff National Park. Large Mammal Restoration: Ecological and Sociological Challenges in the 21st Century 2001, 261-275. Maehr DS, Noss RF, Larkin JL, eds, pp, Island Press, Washington
11. Fabbri E, Miquel C, Lucchini V, Santini A, Caniglia R, Duchamp C, Weber J-M, Lequette B, Marucco F, Boitani L, Fumagalli L, Taberlet P, Randi E. From the Apennines to the Alps: colonization genetics of the naturally expanding Italian wolf (Canis lupus) population. Molecular Ecology 2007, 16:1661-1671.
12. Falcucci A, Ciucci P, Maiorano L, Gentile L, Boitani L. Assessing habitat quality for conservation using an integrated occurrence-mortality model. Journal of Applied Ecology 2009, 46:600-609.
13. Fall A, Fall J. A domain-specific language for models of landscape dynamics. Ecological Modelling 2001, 141:1-18.
14. Ferreras P, Gaona P, Palomares F, Delibes M. Restore habitat or reduce mortality? Implications from a population viability analysis of the Iberian lynx. Animal Conservation 2001, 4:265-274.
15. Gonzalez-Suarez M, Gerber LR. A behaviorally explicit demographic model integrating habitat selection and population dynamics in California sea lions. Conservation Biology 2008, 22:1608-1618.
16. Grimm V, Railsback S. Individual-Base Modeling and Ecology 2005, Princeton University Press, Princeton
17. Grimm V, Revilla E, Berger U, Jeltsch F, Mooij WM, Railsback SF, Thulke HH, Weiner J, Wiegand T, DeAngelis DL. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science 2005, 310:987-991.
18. Hurford A, Hebblewhite M, Lewis MA. A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in greater Yellowstone. Theoretical Population Biology 2006, 70:244-254.
19. IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1 2001, IUCN Species Survival Commission, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK
20. Jedrzejewski W, Jedrzejewska B, Zawadzka B, Borowik T, Nowak S, Myslajek RW. Habitat suitability model for Polish wolves based on long-term national census. Animal Conservation 2008, 11:377-390.
21. Kaartinen S, Luoto M, Kojola I. Carnivore-livestock conflicts: determinants of wolf (Canis lupus) depredation on sheep farms in Finland. Biodiversity and Conservation 2009, 18:3503-3517.
22. Kojola I, Kaartinen S, Hakala A, Heikkinen S, Voipio H-M. Dispersal behavior and the connectivity between wolf populations in Northern Europe. Journal of Wildlife Management 2009, 73:309-313.
23. Kramer-Schadt S, Revilla E, Wiegand T, Breitenmoser U. Fragmented landscapes, road mortality and patch connectivity: modelling influences on the dispersal of Eurasian lynx. Journal of Applied Ecology 2004, 41:711-723.
24. Linnell JDC, Swenson SE, Anderson R. Predators and people: conservation of large carnivores is possible at high human densities if management policy is favourable. Animal Conservation 2001, 4:345-349.
25. Macdonald DW, Rushton S. Modelling space use and dispersal of mammals in real landscapes: a tool for conservation. Journal of Biogeography 2003, 30:607-620.
26. MacKenzie DI. Modeling the probability of resource use: the effect of, and dealing with, detecting a species imperfectly. Journal of Wildlife Management 2006, 70:367-374.
27. Marboutin E, Duchamp C. Gestion adaptative de la population de loup en France: du monitoring à l'évaluation des possibilités de prélèvements 2005, 14-19. ONCFS Rapport scientifique, pp
28. Marucco F. Spatial population dynamics of a recolonizing wolves in the Western Alps 2009, PhD dissertation, University of Montana
29. Marucco F, Avanzinelli E, Dalmasso S, Orlando L. Report 2009: Progetto Lupo Piemonte 2009a, Regione Piemonte, Torino
30. Marucco F, Pletscher DH, Boitani L, Schwartz MK, Pilgrim KL, Lebreton JD. Wolf survival and population trend using non-invasive CMR techniques in the Western Alps. Journal of Applied Ecology 2009b, 46:1003-1010.
31. Matsinos YG, Wolff WF, DeAngelis DL. Can individual-based models yield better assessment of population viability? Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology 2002, 188-198. Ferson S, Burgman MA, eds, pp, Springer, New York
32. McIntire EJB, Schultz CB, Crone EE. Designing a network for butterfly habitat restoration: where individuals, populations and landscape interact. Journal of Applied Ecology 2007, 44:725-736.
33. Mech LD, Boitani L. Wolves: Behavior, Ecology, and Conservation 2003, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
34. Mladenoff DJ, Sickley TA, Haight RG, Wydeven AP. A regional landscape analysis and prediction of favorable gray wolf habitat in the Northern Great Lakes Region. Conservation Biology 1995, 9:279-294.
35. Nilsson T. Integrating effects of hunting policy, catastrophic events, and inbreeding depression, in PVA simulation: the Scandinavian wolf population as an example. Biological Conservation 2003, 115:227-239.
36. Samson FB. Population viability analysis, management, and conservation planning at large scales. Population Viability Analysis 2002, 425-446. Beissinger SRMcCullough DR. eds, pp, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
37. Shenk TM, Franklin AB. Modeling in Natural Resource Management: Development, Interpretation, and Application 2001, Island Press, Washington
38. Turchin P. Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants 1998, Sinauer Associates, MA
39. Vila C, Sundqvist AK, Flagstad O, Seddon J, Bjornerfeldt S, Kojola I, Casulli A, Sand H, Wabakken P, Ellegren H. Rescue of a several bottlenecked wolf (Canis lupus) population by a single immigrant. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 2003, 279:91-97.
40. Vucetich JA, Peterson RO, Waite TA. Effects of social structure and prey dynamics on extinction risk in gray wolves. Conservation Biology 1997, 11:957-965.
41. Wiegand T, Knauer F, Kaczensky P, Naves J. Expansion of brown bears (Ursus arctos) into the Eastern Alps: a spatially explicit population model. Biodiversity and Conservation 2004, 13:79-114.