Habitat suitability model for Polish wolves based on long-term national census

Animal Conservation

Volumn 11, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 377-390

  Jedrzejewski, Włodzimierz ^a   Jedrzejewska, B ^a   Zawadzka, B ^a   Borowik, T ^a   Nowak, S ^b   Myslajek R W ^b  

^a MAMMAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Poland)

^b Association for Nature 'Wolf'   (Poland)

Author keywords

Central Europe; Forest cover; Model validation; Potential population size; Resource selection function; Suitable habitat patches; Wolf range

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; CENSUS; FOREST COVER; GIS; HABITAT SELECTION; MAMMAL; MODELING; PATCH SIZE; POPULATION SIZE; RESOURCE SELECTION;

CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; POLAND;

CANIDAE; CANIS FAMILIARIS; CANIS LUPUS;

EID: 54049090437     PISSN: 13679430     EISSN: 14691795     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2008.00193.x     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Anderson, D.R., Burham, K.P. & Thompson, W.L. (2000). Null hypothesis testing: Problems, prevalence, and an alternative. J. Wildl. Mgmt. 64, 912-923.
2. Ansorge, H., Kluth, G. & Hahne, S. (2006). Feeding ecology of wolves Canis lupus returning to Germany. Acta Theriol. 51, 99-106.
3. Bereszyński, A. (1998) Wilk (Canis lupus Linneaus, 1758) w Polsce i jego ochrona. Wydawnictwo Akademii Rolniczej im. A. Cieszkowskiego w Poznaniu, Poznań (in Polish).
4. Boitani, L. (2000). Action plan for the conservation of wolves in Europe (Canis lupus). Nat. Environ. 113, 1-86.
5. Boyce, M.S. & McDonald, L.L. (1999). Relating populations to habitats using resource selection functions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 268-272.
6. Boyce, M.S., Vernier, P.R., Nielson, S.E. & Schmiegelow, F.K.A. (2002). Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecol. Model. 157, 281-300.
7. Breitenmoser, U., Breintenmoser-Würsten, C., Carbyn, L.N. & Funk, S.M. (2001). Assessment of carnivore reintroductions. In Carnivore conservation: 241-281. Gittleman, J.L., Funk, S.M., Macdonald, D.W. & Wayne, R.K. (Eds). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8. Brzuski, P. & Okarma, H. (1997) Wilk na terenach zachodniej Polski. Polski Zwiazek Łowiecki, Warszawa (in Polish).
9. Burgman, M.A., Breininger, D.R., Duncan, B.W. & Ferson, S. (2001). Setting reliability bounds on habitat suitability indices. Ecol. Appl. 11, 70-78.
10. Burgman, M.A., Lindenmayer, D.B. & Elith, J. (2005). Managing landscapes for conservation under uncertainty. Ecology 86, 2007-2017.
11. Carroll, C., Zielinski, W.J. & Noss, R.F. (1999). Using presence-absence data to build and test spatial habitat models for the fisher in the Klamath Region, U.S.A. Conserv. Biol. 13, 1344-1359.
12. Central Statistical Office (2007). Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Poland. Warsaw: Central Statistical Office.
13. Chetkiewicz, C.-L.B., St. Clair, C.C. & Boyce, M.S. (2006). Corridors for conservation: Integrating pattern and process. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37, 317-342.
14. Corsi, F., Duprè, E. & Boitani, L. (1999). A large-scale model of wolf distribution in Italy for conservation planning. Conserv. Biol. 13, 150-159.
15. Côté, I.M. & Reynolds, J.D. (2002). Predictive ecology to the rescue? Science 298, 1181-1182.
16. Fritts, S.H. (1983). Record dispersal of a wolf from Minnesota. J. Mammal. 64, 166-167.
17. Gebczyńska, Z. & Raczyński, J. (1984). Habitat preferences and population structure of moose in the Biebrza river valley. Acta Zool. Fenn. 172, 93-94.
18. Gehring, T.M. & Potter, B.A. (2005). Wolf habitat analysis in Michigan: An example of the need for proactive land management for carnivore species. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 33, 1237-1244.
19. Glenz, C., Massolo, A., Kuonen, D. & Schlaepfer, R. (2001). A wolf habitat suitability prediction study in Valais (Switzerland). Landsc. Urban Plann. 55, 55-65.
20. Graham, M.H. (2003). Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression. Ecology 84, 2809-2815.
21. Gros, P.M. & Rejmánek, M. (1999). Status and habitat preferences of Uganda cheetahs: An attempt to predict carnivore occurrence based on vegetation structure. Biodivers. Conserv. 8, 1561-1583.
22. Hayes, R.D. & Harestad, A.S. (2000). Demography of a recovering wolf population in the Yukon. Can. J. Zool. 78, 36-48.
23. Jacobs, J. (1974). Quantitative measurements of food selection; a modification of the forage ratio and Ivlev's electivity index. Oecologia 14, 413-417.
24. Jakubiec, Z. & Buchalczyk, T. (1987). The brown bear in Poland: Its history and present numbers. Acta Theriol. 32, 289-306.
25. Jedrzejewska, B. & Jedrzejewski, W. (1998). Predation in vertebrate communities. The Białowieza Primeval Forest as a case study. Berlin: Springer Verlag.
26. Jedrzejewska, B., Jedrzejewski, W., Bunevich, A.N., Miłkowski, L. & Krasiński, Z.A. (1997). Factors shaping population densities and increase rates of ungulates in Białowieza Primeval Forest (Poland and Belarus) in the 19th and 20th centuries. Acta Theriol. 42, 399-451.
27. Jedrzejewski, W., Niedziałkowska, M., Mysłajek, R.W., Nowak, S. & Jedrzejewska, B. (2005). Habitat selection by wolves Canis lupus in the uplands and mountains of southern Poland. Acta Theriol. 50, 417-428.
28. Jedrzejewski, W., Niedziałkowska, M., Nowak, S. & Jedrzejewska, B. (2004a). Habitat variables associated with wolf (Canis lupus) distribution and abundance in northern Poland. Divers. Distrib. 10, 225-233.
29. Jedrzejewski, W., Nowak, S., Schmidt, K. & Jedrzejewska, B. (2002a). The wolf and the lynx in Poland - results of a census conducted in 2001. Kosmos 51, 491-499. [In Polish with English summary].
30. Jedrzejewski, W., Schmidt, K., Jedrzejewska, B., Theuerkauf, J., Kowalczyk, R. & Zub, K. (2004b). The process of a wolf pack splitting in Białowieza Primeval Forest, Poland. Acta Theriol. 49, 275-280.
31. Jedrzejewski, W., Schmidt, K., Theuerkauf, J., Jedrzejewska, B. & Kowalczyk, R. (2007). Territory size of wolves Canis lupus: Linking local (Białowieza Primeval Forest, Poland) and Holarctic-scale patterns. Ecography 30, 66-76.
32. Jedrzejewski, W., Schmidt, K., Theuerkauf, J., Jedrzejewska, B., Selva, N., Zub, K. & Szymura, L. (2002b). Kill rates and predation by wolves on ungulate populations in Białowieza Primeval Forest (Poland). Ecology 83, 1341-1356.
33. Kaartinen, S., Kojola, I. & Colpaert, A. (2005). Finnish wolves avoid roads and settlements. Ann. Zool. Fenn. 42, 523-532.
34. Karlsson, J., Broseth, H., Sand, H. & Andren, H. (2007). Predicting occurrence of wolf territories in Scandinavia. J. Zool. (Lond.) 272, 276-283.
35. Lavers, C.P., Haines-Young, R.H. & Avery, M.I. (1996). The habitat associations of dunlin (Calidris alpina) in the Flow Country of northern Scotland and an improved model for predicting habitat quality. J. Appl. Ecol. 33, 279-290.
36. Leśnictwo [Forestry]. (2007). Główny Urzad Statystyczny. Poland: Warszawa.
37. Linnell, J.D.C., Solberg, E.J., Brainerd, S., Liberg, O., Sand, H., Wabakken, P. & Kojola, I. (2003). Is the fear of wolves justified? A Fennoscandian perspective. Acta Zool. Lituanica 13, 34-40.
38. Lovari, S., Sforzi, A., Scala, C. & Fico, R. (2007). Mortality parameters of the wolf in Italy: Does the wolf keep himself from the door? J. Zool. (Lond.) 272, 117-124.
39. Manly, B.F.J., McDonald, L.L., Thomas, D.L., McDonald, T.L. & Erickson, W.P. (2004). Resource selection by animals. Statistical design and analysis for field studies. 2nd edn. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
40. Massolo, A. & Meriggi, A. (1998). Factors affecting habitat occupancy by wolves in northern Apennines (northern Italy): A model of habitat suitability. Ecography 21, 97-107.
41. McGarigal, K. & Cushman, S.A. (2005). The gradient concept of landscape structure. In Issues and perspectives in landscape ecology: 112-119. Wiens, J.A. & Moss, M.R. (Eds). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
42. Mech, L.D. (2006a). Prediction failure of a wolf landscape model. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 34, 874-877.
43. Mech, L.D. (2006b). Mladenoff et al. rebut lacks supportive data. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 34, 882-883.
44. Mladenoff, D.J., Clayton, M.K., Sickley, T.A. & Wydeven, A.P. (2006). L.D. Mech critique of our works lacks scientific validity. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 34, 878-881.
45. Mladenoff, D.J. & Sickley, T.A. (1998). Assessing potential gray wolf restoration in the northeastern United States: A spatial prediction of favorable habitat and potential population levels. J. Wildl. Mgmt. 62, 1-10.
46. Mladenoff, D.J., Sickley, T.A., Haight, R.G. & Wydeven, A.P. (1995). A regional landscape analysis and prediction of favorable gray wolf habitat in the Northern Great Lakes region. Conserv. Biol. 9, 279-294.
47. Niedziałkowska, M., Jedrzejewski, W., Mysłajek, R.W., Nowak, S., Jedrzejewska, B. & Schmidt, K. (2006). Environmental correlates of Eurasian lynx occurrence in Poland - large scale census and GIS mapping. Biol. Conserv. 133, 63-69.
48. Nowak, S., Jedrzejewski, W., Schmidt, K., Theuerkauf, J., Mysłajek, R.W. & Jedrzejewska, B. (2007). Howling activity of free-ranging wolves (Canis lupus) in the Białowieza Primeval Forest and the Western Beskidy Mountains (Poland). J. Ethol. 25, 231-237.
49. Nowak, S., Mysłajek, R.W. & Jedrzejewska, B. (2008). Density and demography of wolf Canis lupus population in the westernmost part of the Polish Carpathian Mountains, 1996-2003. Folia Zool. 57.
50. Okarma, H., Jedrzejewski, W., Schmidt, K., Śniezko, S., Bunevich, A.N. & Jedrzejewska, B. (1998). Home ranges of wolves in Białowieza Primeval Forest, Poland, compared with other Eurasian populations. J. Mammal. 79, 842-852.
51. Potvin, M.J., Drummer, T.D., Vucetich, J.A., Beyer, D.E., Peterson, R.O. & Hammill, J.H. (2005). Monitoring and habitat analysis for wolves in upper Michigan. J. Wildl. Mgmt. 69, 1660-1669.
52. Pucek, Z., Bobek, B., Łabudzki, L., Miłkowski, L., Morow, K. & Tomek, A. (1975). Estimates of density and numbers of ungulates. Pol. Ecol. Stud. 1, 121-135.
53. Ray, J.C. (2005). Large carnivorous animals as tools for conserving biodiversity: Assumptions and uncertainties. In Large carnivores and the conservation of biodiversity: 34-56. Ray, J.C., Redford, K.H., Steneck, R.S. & Berger, J. (Eds). Washington: Island Press.
54. Ray, J.C., Redford, K.H., Steneck, R.S. & Berger, J. (Eds), (2005). Large carnivores and the conservation of biodiversity. Washington: Island Press.
55. Salvatori, V., Okarma, H., Ionescu, O., Dovhanych, Y., Findo, S. & Boitani, L. (2002). Hunting legislation in the Carpathian Mountains: implications for the conservation and management of large carnivores. Wildl. Biol. 8, 3-10.
56. Schadt, S., Revilla, E., Wiegand, T., Knauer, F., Kaczensky, P., Breitenmoser, U., Bufka, L., Červeny, J., Koubek, P., Huber, T., Staniša, C. & Trepl, L. (2002). Assessing the suitability of central European landscapes for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx. J. Appl. Ecol. 39, 189-203.
57. Schmidt, K., Jedrzejewski, W., Theuerkauf, J., Kowalczyk, R., Okarma, H. & Jedrzejewska, B. (2008). Reproductive behaviour of wild-living wolves in Białowieza Primeval Forest (Poland). J. Ethol. 26, 69-78.
58. Śmietana, W. & Wajda, J. (1997). Wolf number changes in Bieszczady National Park, Poland. Acta Theriol. 42, 241-252.
59. SYSTAT Software Inc. (2007). SYSTAT 12. San Jose, CA, USA: SYSTAT Software Inc. (http://www.systat.com).
60. Tabachnick, B.G. & Fidell, L.S. (1983). Using multivariate statistics. New York: Harper & Row.
61. Turner, M.G., Gardner, R.H. & O'Neill, R.V. (2001). Landscape ecology in theory and practice. New York: Springer Verlag.
62. United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) (1980). Habitat evaluation procedures. United States Fish and Wildlife Service, ESM 102. Release 2-80, Department of the Interior, Washington, DC, USA.
63. Valiere, N., Fumagalli, L., Gielly, L., Miquel, C., Lequette, B., Poulle, M.L., Weber, J.M., Arlettaz, R. & Taberlet, P. (2003). Long-distance wolf colonization of France and Switzerland inferred from non-invasive genetic sampling over a period of 10 years. Anim. Conserv. 6, 83-92.
64. Wawrzyniak, P., Jedrzejewski, W., Jedrzejewska, B. & Borowik, T. (2008). Ungulate management in Poland. In Ungulate management in Europe in the 21st century. Apollonio, M., Putman, R. & Andersen, R. (Eds). Oxford: Blackwell Scientific Publishers.
65. Wiens, T., Dale, B.C., Boyce, M.S. & Kershaw, G.P. (2007). Three way k-fold cross-validation of resource selection functions. Ecol. Model. (Online: DOI:).
66. Wolsan, M., Bieniek, M. & Buchalczyk, T. (1992). The history of distributional and numerical changes of the wolf Canis lupus L. in Poland. In Global trends in wildlife management. Transactions of the 18th International Union of Game Biologists Congress, Kraków 1987: 375-380. Bobek, B., Perzanowski, K. & Regelin, W. (Eds). Kraków-Warszawa: Świat Press.
67. Wydeven, A.P., Mladenoff, D.J., Sickley, T.A., Kohn, B.E., Theil, R.P. & Hansen, J.L. (2001). Road density as a factor in habitat selection by wolves and other carnivores in the Great Lakes Region. Endangered Species 18, 110-114.