Using random judge assignments to estimate the effects of incarceration and probation on recidivism among drug offenders

Criminology

Volumn 48, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 357-387

  Green, Donald P ^a   Winik, Daniel ^a  

^a YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Drug crime; Natural experiments; Recidivism; Specific deterrence

Indexed keywords

EID: 77954299979     PISSN: 00111384     EISSN: 17459125     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2010.00189.x     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Achen Christopher H. The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments 1986, Berkeley, University of California Press
2. Angrist Joshua D, Imbens Guido W, Rubin Donald D. Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1996, 91:444-55.
3. Angrist Joshua D, Pischke Jorn-Steffen. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion 2009, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press
4. Arceneaux Kevin. Using cluster randomized field experiments to study voting behavior: The science of voter mobilization. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 2005, 601:169-79.
5. Berube Danton, Green Donald The effects of sentencing on recidivism: Results from a natural experiment. 2007, Paper presented at the Second Annual Conference on Empirical Legal Studies, New York
6. Deterrence and Incapacitation: Estimating the Effects of Criminal Sanctions on Crime Rates 1978, Blumstein AlfredCohen JacquelineNagin Daniel S. Washington, DC, National Academy Press
7. Blumstein Alfred, Larson Richard C. Problems in modeling and measuring recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 1971, 8:124-32.
8. Bound John, Jaeger David A, Baker Regina. Problems with instrumental variables estimation when the correlation between the instruments and the endogenous explanatory variables is weak. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1995, 90:443-50.
9. Centers Nathan L, Weist Mark D. Inner city youth and drug dealing: A review of the problem. Journal of Youth and Adolescence 1998, 27:395-411.
10. Chernozhukov Victor, Hansen Christian. The reduced form: A simple approach to inference with weak instruments. Economic Letters 2008, 100:68-71.
11. Deschenes Elizabeth P, Turner Susan, Greenwood Peter W. Drug court or probation? An experimental evaluation of Maricopa County's drug court. The Justice System Journal 1995, 18:55-73.
12. D.C. Act 13-406, the 'Sentencing Reform Amendment Act of 2000.'. 2000, http://acs.dc.gov/acs/lib/acs/pdf/acs.DCAct13-406.pdf, District of Columbia Sentencing Commission
13. Farrington David P, Welsh Brandon C. Randomized experiments in criminology: What have we learned in the last two decades?. Journal of Experimental Criminology 2005, 1:9-38.
14. Gelman Andrew, Hill Jennifer. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models 2007, New York, Cambridge University Press
15. Gottfredson Don M. Effects of Judges' Sentencing Decisions on Criminal Careers 1999, Washington, DC, National Institute of Justice
16. Hansen Ben B, Bowers Jake. Covariate balance in simple, stratified and clustered comparative studies. Statistical Science 2008, 23:219-36.
17. Hausman Jerry A. Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica 1978, 46:1251-71.
18. Holden Robert T. Rehabilitative sanctions for drunk driving: An experimental evaluation. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 1983, 20:55-72.
19. Imbens Guido W, Angrist Joshua D. Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects. Econometrica 1994, 62:467-75.
20. Killias Martin, Aebi Marcelo, Ribeaud Denis. Does community service rehabilitate better than short-term imprisonment? Results of a controlled experiment. Howard Journal of Criminal Justice 2000, 39:40-57.
21. Killias Martin, Villettaz Patrice. The effects of custodial vs noncustodial sanctions on reoffending: Lessons from a systematic review. Psicothema 2008, 20:29-34.
22. Kim Il-Joong. An econometric study on the deterrent impact of probation. Evaluation Review 1994, 18:389-410.
23. Kim Il-Joong, Benson Bruce L, Rasmussen David W, Zuehlke Thomas W. An economic analysis of recidivism among drug offenders. Southern Economic Journal 1993, 60:169-83.
24. Kling Jeffrey R. Incarceration length, employment, and earnings. American Economic Review 2006, 96:863-76.
25. Kubrin Charis E, Stewart Eric A. Predicting who reoffends: The neglected role of neighborhood context in recidivism studies. Criminology 2006, 44:165-97.
26. Lacasse Chantale, Payne A Abigail. Federal sentencing guidelines and mandatory minimum sentences: Do defendants bargain in the shadow of the judge?. Journal of Law and Economics 1999, 42:245-69.
27. Landes William M. An economic analysis of the courts. Journal of Law and Economics 1971, 14:61-107.
28. Lee David, McCrary Justin. Crime, punishment, and myopia. 2005, NBER Working Paper No. W11491
29. Maltz Michael D, McCleary Richard. The mathematics of behavioral change: Recidivism and construct validity. Evaluation Quarterly 1977, 1:421-37.
30. Manski Charles F, Nagin Daniel S. Bounding disagreements about treatment effects: A case study of sentencing and recidivism. Sociological Methodology 1998, 28:99-137.
31. Martin Susan E, Annan Sampson, Forst Brian. The special deterrent effects of a jail sanction on first-time drunk drivers: A quasi-experimental study. Accident Analysis and Prevention 1993, 25:561-8.
32. Massoglia Michael, Macmillan Ross. Rational choice, deterrence, and criminal offending: A consideration of legal subjectivity. Rational Choice and Criminal Behavior: Recent Research and Future Challenges 2002, Piquero Alex R, Tibbetts Stephen G. In, New York, Routledge Press
33. Murakawa Naomi. Electing to punish: Congress, race, and the American criminal justice state. 2005, PhD Dissertation. Yale University, New Haven, CT
34. Nagin Daniel S, Cullen Francis T, Jonson Cheryl Lero. Imprisonment and reoffending. Crime and Justice: A Review of Research 2009, vol. 38. Tonry Michael H, In, Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press
35. Orsagh Thomas, Chen Jong-Rong. The effect of time served on recidivism: An interdisciplinary theory. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 1988, 4:155-71.
36. Persson Mats, Siven Claes-Henric. Incentive and incarceration effects in a general equilibrium model of crime. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 2006, 59:214-29.
37. Petersilia Joan. Probation in the United States. Crime and Justice: A Review of Research 1997, vol. 22. Tonry Michael H. In, Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press
38. Robinson Paul H, Darley John M. Does criminal law deter? A behavioral science investigation. Oxford Journal of Legal Studies 2004, 24:173-205.
39. Sherman Lawrence. Defiance, deterrence, and irrelevance: A theory of the criminal sanction. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 1993, 30:445-73.
40. Sherman Lawrence, Berk Richard A. The specific deterrent effects of arrest for domestic assault. American Sociological Review 1984, 49:261-72.
41. Smith Douglas A, Gartin Patrick R. Specifying specific deterrence: The influence of arrest on future criminal activity. American Sociological Review 1989, 54:94-106.
42. Spohn Cassia, Holleran David. The effect of imprisonment on recidivism rates of felony offenders: A focus on drug offenders. Criminology 2002, 40:329-57.
43. Staiger Douglas, Stock James H. Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments. Econometrica 1997, 65:557-86.
44. Stock James H, Watson Mark W. Introduction to Econometrics 2007, 2nd ed., New York, Pearson Addison-Wesley
45. Stock James H, Yogo Motohiro. Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression. 2002, NBER Technical Working Paper No. 284
46. Turner Susan, Petersilia Joan, Deschenes Elizabeth P. Evaluating intensive supervision probation/parole (ISP) for drug offenders. Crime and Delinquency 1992, 38:539-56.
47. D.C. Criminal Justice System: Better Coordination Needed Among Participating Agencies 2001, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01187.pdf, United States General Accounting Office (USGAO), GAO Pub. No. 01-187, Washington, DC, GPO
48. Villettaz Patrice, Killias Martin, Zoder Isabel. The effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on reoffending: A systematic review of the state of knowledge. 2006, http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/doc-pdf/Campbell-report-30.09.06.pdf, Report to the Campbell Collaboration Crime and Justice Group
49. Waldfogel Joel. Does conviction have a persistent effect on income and employment?. International Review of Law and Economics 1994, 14:103-19.
50. West Heather C, Sabol William J. Prisoners in 2007 2008, http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/p07.pdf, NCJ Pub. No. 224280, Washington, DC, Bureau of Justice Statistics
51. Wilson David B, Mitchell Ojmarrh, MacKenzie Doris L. A systematic review of drug court effects on recidivism. Journal of Experimental Criminology 2006, 2:459-87.
52. Witte Ann D. Estimating the economic model of crime with individual data. Quarterly Journal of Economics 1980, 94:57-84.