European storminess and associated circulation weather types: Future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations

Climate Research

Volumn 42, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 27-43

  Donat, Markus G ^a   Leckebusch, Gregor C ^a   Pinto, Joaquim G ^b   Ulbrich, Uwe ^a  

^a FREIE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE   (Germany)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic climate change; Circulation weather types; European wind storms; Extra tropical cyclones; Future climate scenarios; Multi model ensemble; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE; CIRCULATION WEATHER TYPES; FUTURE CLIMATE; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; HURRICANES; SPEED; STORMS; WIND EFFECTS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL CLIMATE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; STORM; TWENTIETH CENTURY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WIND DIRECTION; WIND VELOCITY;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (EAST); EUROPE; NORTH SEA; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 77954140477     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: 16161572     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr00853     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Alexandersson H, Tuomenvirta H, Schmith T, Iden K (2000) Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set. Clim Res 14:71-73
2. Bärring L, von Storch H (2004) Scandinavian storminess since about 1800. Geophys Res Lett 31:L20202. doi:10.1029/2004GL020441
3. Benedict JJ, Lee S, Feldstein SB (2004) A synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 61:121-144 (Pubitemid 38242328)
4. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006) Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:3518-3543
5. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A and others (2007) Whetton P regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, and others (eds) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
6. Collins M (2007) Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:1957-1970
7. DAndrea F, Tibaldi S, Blackburn M, Boer G and others (1998) Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988. Clim Dyn 14:385-407
8. Della-Marta PM, Pinto JG (2009) The statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations. Geophys Res Lett 36:L14703. doi:10.1029/2009GL038557
9. Demuzere M, Werner M, van Lipzig NPM, Roeckner E (2009) An analysis of present and future ECHAM5 pressure fields using a classification of circulation patterns. Int J Climatol 29:1796-1810
10. Donat MG, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U (2009) Examination of wind storms over central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases. Int J Climatol (in press) doi:10.1002/joc.1982
11. Donat MG, Leckebusch GC, Wild S, Ulbrich U (2010) Benefits and limitations of regional multi-model ensembles for storm loss estimations. Clim Res (in press)
12. Furevik T, Bentsen M, Drange H, Kindem IKT, Kvamsto NG, Sorteberg A (2003) Description and evaluation of the Bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM. Clim Dyn 21:27-51
13. Gastineau G, Soden BJ (2009) Model projected changes of extreme wind events in response to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 36:L10810. doi:10.1029/2009GL037500
14. Hagedorn R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. I. Basic concept. Tellus 57:219-233. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x (Pubitemid 40659620)
15. Huebener H, Cubasch U, Langematz U, Spangehl T, Nie-hörster F, Fast I, Kunze M (2007) Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere GCM. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2089-2101
16. Johns TC, Durman CF, Banks HT, Roberts MJ and others (2006) The new Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM1): evaluation of coupled simulations. J Clim 19:1327-1353
17. Jones PD, Hulme M, Briffa KR (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int J Climatol 13:655-663
18. Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside H, Botzet M, Haak H and others (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19:3952-3972
19. Klawa M, Ulbrich U (2003) A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3:725-732
20. Knippertz P, Ulbrich U, Speth P (2000) Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment. Clim Res 15:109-122
21. Lambert SJ, Fyfe JC (2006) Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim Dyn 26:713-728
22. Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2004) On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global Planet Change 44:181-193
23. Leckebusch GC, Koffi B, Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Spangehl T, Zacharias S (2006) Analysis of frequency and intensity of winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales. Clim Res 31:59-74
24. Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U, Fröhlich L, Pinto JG (2007) Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate. Geophys Res Lett 34:L05703. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027663 (Pubitemid 46864525)
25. Leckebusch GC, Renggli D, Ulbrich U (2008a) Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region. Meteorol Z 17:575-587
26. Leckebusch GC, Donat MG, Ulbrich U, Pinto JG (2008b) Midlatitude cyclones and storms in an ensemble of European AOGCMs under ACC. CLIVAR Exchanges 13(3):3-5. http://eprints.soton. ac.uk/55670/01/Exch-46-final3.pdf
27. Legutke S, Voss R (1999) The Hamburg atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation model ECHO-G. Technical report No. 18. German Climate Computer Centre (DKRZ), Hamburg
28. Manzini E, McFarlane NA (1998) The effect of varying the source spectrum of a gravity wave parameterization in a middle atmosphere general circulation model. J Geophys Res 103:31523-31539 (Pubitemid 128665584)
29. Marti O, Braconnot P, Bellier J, Benshila R and others (2005) The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. Note du Pôle de Modélisation, 26. www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/poles/Modelisation/NotesScience/note26.pdf
30. Martin GM, Ringer MA, Pope VD, Jones A, Dearden C, Hinton TJ (2006) The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). I. Model description and global climatology. J Clim 19:1274-1301
31. Matulla C, Schöner W, Alexandersson H, von Storch H, Wang XL (2008) European storminess: late nineteenth century to present. Clim Dyn 31:125-130
32. Munich Re (1999) Naturkatastrophen in Deutschland: Schadenerfahrungen und Schadenpotentiale. Munich Re. www.munichre.com/publications/302-01037-de.pdf
33. Munich Re (2007) Zwischen Hoch und Tief - Wetterrisiken in Mitteleuropa. Edition Wissen, Munich Re. www.munichre.com/publications/302-05481-de.pdf
34. Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data. I: Development and operation of the scheme. Aust Meteorol Mag 39:155-166
35. Palmer TN, Räisänen J (2002) Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415:512-514
36. Pinto JG, Spangehl T, Ulbrich U, Speth P (2005) Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology. Meteorol Z 14:823-838
37. Pinto JG, Spangehl T, Ulbrich U, Speth P (2006) Assessment of winter cyclone activity in a transient ECHAM4-OPYC3 GHG experiment. Meteorol Z 15:279-291
38. Pinto JG, Fröhlich EL, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2007a) Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 7:165-175
39. Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharias S (2007b) Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPIOM1 GCM. Clim Dyn 29:195-210
40. Pinto JG, Zacharias S, Fink AH, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2009) Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and theirrelationshipwith the NAO. Clim Dyn 32:711-737
41. Pinto JG, Neuhaus CP, Leckebusch GC, Reyers M, Kersch-gens M (2010) Estimation of wind storm impacts over West Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach. Tellus, Ser A, Dyn Meterol Oceanogr 62:188-201
42. Raible CC (2007) On the relation between extremes of mitlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07703. doi:10.1029/2006GL 029084
43. Raible CC, Della-Marta PM, Schwierz C, Wernli H, Blender R (2008) Northern hemisphere midlatitude cyclones: a comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses. Mon Weather Rev 136:880-897
44. Räisänen J (2007) How reliable are climate models? Tellus 59A: 2-29
45. Reichler T, Kim J (2008) How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:303-311
46. Reifen C, Toumi R (2009) Climate projections: past performance no guarantee of future skill? Geophys Res Lett 36:L13704. doi:10.1029/2009GL038082
47. Ringer MA, Martin GM, Greeves CZ, Hinton TJ and others (2006) The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (Had-GEM1). II. Aspects of variability and regional climate. J Clim 19:1302-1326
48. Schneidereit A, Blender R, Fraedrich K, Lunkheit F (2007) Iceland climate and North Atlantic cyclones in ERA40 reanalyses. Meteorol Z 16:17-23
49. Stephenson DB, Pavan V, Collins M, Junge MM, Quadrelli R, participating CMIP2 modelling groups (2006) North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment. Clim Dyn 27:401-420
50. Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2053-2075
51. Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Kupfer H, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M (2008) Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. J Clim 21:1669-1679
52. Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG (2009) Cyclones in the present and future climate: a review. Theor Appl Climatol 96:117-131
53. Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U and others (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. QJR Meteorol Soc 131:2961-3012
54. van Ulden AP, van Oldenborgh GJ (2006) Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for regional climate scenarios: a case study for West-Central Europe. Atmos Chem Phys 6:863-881
55. Wang XL, Zwiers FW, Swail VR, Feng Y (2009) Trends and variability of storminess in the Northeast Atlantic Region, 1874-2007. Clim Dyn 33:1179-1195