The legacy of the color revolutions for russian politics and foreign policy

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 57, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 21-36

  Wilson, Jeanne ^a  

^a WHEATON COLLEGE   (United States)

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EID: 77953365115     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2753/PPC1075-8216570202     Document Type: Article

References (104)

1. This generalization applies to the political elite associated with the presidency of Vladimir Putin and United Russia. It excludes the marginalized members of Russia's liberal intelligentsia, including Western-oriented politicians and journalists.
2. "Is the Cold War Being Repeated?" Renmin ribao, May 16, 2006, via World News Connection [hereinafter WNC] (May 16, 2006).
3. "On the Probable Scenario of Actions of the United States in Relation to Russia in 2006-2008," OSC Report, September 25, 2006, via WNC (September 25, 2006).
4. See www.vesti.ru/files.html?id=5064, accessed October 28, 2006;
5. see also, for example, "Putin zaveril, chto u Rossii net imperskikh ambitsii" (Putin Declared That Russia Does Not Have Imperial Ambitions), RIA Novosti (September 6, 2005), at http://222.rian.ru/politics/russia/20050906/ 41313416-print. html, accessed October 16, 2006.
6. For Western assessments of Color Revolutions, see Mark R. Beissinger, "Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions," Perspective on Politics 5, no.2 (June 2007): 259-76;
7. Michael McFaul, "Ukraine Imports Democracy: External Influences on the Orange Revolution," International Security 32, no.2 (fall 2007): 45-83.
8. Ilya Kriger, "Dura Lex," Novaya gazeta (August 14, 2008), via WNC (August 13, 2008).
9. Rosstat (Federal Service for State Statistics) figures were considerably higher, calculating the number of Russian NGOs at 673,019. While the FRS counts only organizations that are registered, Rosstat counts organizations that have submitted tax declarations. See "And Now the Third One," Vedomosti (June 19, 2008), via WNC (June 19, 2008).
10. Nikolaus von Twickel, "NGOs Buried by Mountain of Paper," Moscow Times (August 24, 2007);
11. Vladimir Pavlov, "Poraboshchenie demokratiey" (Enslaved by Democracy), RBK Daily (July 12, 2007);
12. Nabi Abdullaev, "U.S. Cash Is Lifeblood of Dozens of NGOs," Moscow Times (May 18, 2007).
13. Vladimir Putin, "Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation" (May 24, 2006), http://eng.kremlin.ru/speeches/2004/05/ 26/1309- type70029type82912-71650.shtml, accessed February 23, 2010.
14. See Anna Matveeva, "Exporting Civil Society: The Post-Communist Experience," Problems of Post-Communism 55, no.2 (March/April 2008): 3-13.
15. Svetlana Bocharova, "Kto tratit nashi dengi?" (Who Is Spending Our Money?), Gazeta.ru (March 28, 2009).
16. "Nekommercheskie organizatsii nachinaiut osvoenie biudzheta" (Noncommercial Organizations Begin to Master the Budget), Kommersant (July 8, 2007).
17. Kriger, "Dura Lex."
18. "Russian Human Rights Official Notes Increased Domestic Funding of NGOs," BBC Worldwide Monitoring (February 12, 2008), via www. Lexis-Nexis.com.
19. Beissinger, "Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena," p. 262.
20. Michael Schwirtz, "Russia's Political Youths," Demokratizatsiya 15, no.1 (winter 2007): 81.
21. The Nashi manifesto is set forth at www.nashi.su.
22. Schwirtz, "Russia's Political Youths," p. 81.
23. "Russia-Nashi Strongly Denies Sidelining, Kremlin Divided," OSC Analysis (February 18, 2008), via WNC (February 18, 2008).
24. Interfax (July 21, 2008), via WNC (August 21, 2008).
25. The 2009 youth forum organized by United Russia continued to stress the recruitment of young people in civil and public projects, although the sponsors also authorized the creation of a more militant organization, the All-Russian Association of Militias, meant to assist the police in monitoring citizen behavior.
26. Vladimir Putin, speech in Moscow (November 21, 2007), available at http://news.bbc.co.uk. A video of Putin's speech is at www.youtube.com/wat ch?v=T0ixYS60uxs&feature=related, accessed April 14, 2008.
27. For a discussion of Putin's choice of words (i.e., the use of the criminal slang shakaliat [to scavenge like jackals]), see Michael Bohm, "The Jackals Scavenging Among Us," Moscow Times (December 14, 2007): 8.
28. See "Madeleine Albright's People Are Indeed Working with Kasyanov," Nezavisimaya gazeta (July 20, 2006), via WNC (July 20, 2006);
29. Carl Schreck, "Kasyanov, U.S. NGO Deny Teaming Up for '08' Vote," Moscow Times (July 25, 2006).
30. Angus Reid, "One Man Race for Russia's Presidency," Global Monitor (February 20, 2008), at www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/29947, accessed March 13, 2008.
31. Peter Rutland makes the same argument in "Misha One Percent," Moscow Times (February 1, 2008).
32. For a discussion of the diffusion of the Color Revolution phenomenon (including the Yugoslav experience), see Beissinger, "Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena."
33. C.J. Chivers, "Russia Aims to Cut Vote Observers," International Herald Tribune (October 25, 2007).
34. Vladimir Putin, "Speech at the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy," at www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/rede.php?sprache-en&, accessed May 8, 2007.
35. "Russia-Reaction to Election Observer Restriction," OSC Analysis (November 21, 2007), via WNC (November 21, 2007).
36. Nabi Abdullaev, "Putin Says U.S. Pressured OSCE," Moscow Times (November 27, 2007).
37. Sovereign Democracy, however, has met with some controversy as a doctrine outlining the ideological stance of United Russia. In a July 2006 interview with Ekspert, Medvedev voiced reservations about the concept, noting that it "was far from an ideal term" in that it implied that Russia was less than a complete democracy. Putin also appeared to distance himself from the concept when he noted, in response to a question by Harvard professor Timothy Colton at the Valdai discussion club in September 2006, that sovereignty and democracy were two different things, occupying two different spheres. "Dlia protsvetaniia vsekh nado uchityvat interesy kazhdogo" (It Is Necessary to Take into Account the Interests of Everyone in Order to Flourish), Ekspert (July 24, 2006); SRAS/Valdai Discussion Club (September 9, 2006), at www.sras. org/news2.phtml?m-737@popup-1, accessed February 14, 2010.
38. For further discussion, see "Russian President Putin's Criticism of 'Sovereign Democracy,' " OS C Analysis, September 14, 2006, via WNC (September 14, 2006).
39. Vladislav Surkov, "Suverenitet-eto politicheskii sinonim konkurentosposobnosti" (Sovereignty-This Is the Political Synonym of Competitiveness), at www.edinros.ru/ news.html?id=111148, accessed January 23, 2008.
40. A number of these attempts can be accessed on the United Russia Web site: www.edinros.ru.
41. Vladimir Putin, "Opening Address at the Meeting with the Participants of the International NGO Forum, Civil G8 2006" (July 4, 2006), at http:// engkremlin.ru/speeches/2006/07/04/1628-type829147type84779-108276. shtml, accessed January 15, 2008.
42. Itar-Tass, Weekly News, East View (August 3, 2005).
43. Alexander Livshin and Richard Weitz, "Civil Society and Philanthropy under Putin," International Journal of Not-for-Profit Law 8, no.3 (May 2006), at www.icnl.org/knowledge/ijnl/vol8iss3/special-2.htm, accessed June 10, 2009.
44. In a meeting with French president Nicholas Sarkozy, Putin reportedly remarked: "I am the bad cop and Medvedev is the good one." See Ilya Barabanov and Dmitri Dokuchayev, "The Defrosted President-Is Dmitri Medvedev Having an Affair with Democracy?" New Times Online (April 24, 2009), via WNC (April 24, 2009).
45. "Stenograficheskii otchet o zasedanii soveta po sodeistviiu razvutiia institutov grazhdanskogo obshchestva i pravam" (Stenographic Account of the Meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights) (April 15, 2009), at www.kremlin.ru/transcript/3767, accessed June 11, 2009.
46. INSOR's Web site is at www.insor-russia.ru/ru.
47. Demokratiia: razvitie Rossiiskoi modeli (Democracy: Development of the Russian Model) (Moscow: Institute of Contemporary Development, 2008).
48. "Razvitie Rossiiskoi modeli demokraii" (Development of the Russian Model of Democracy) (July 2, 2008), www.insor-russis.ru/runews/268, accessed November 12, 2008.
49. Rossiia XXI veka: Obraz zhelaemogo zavtra (Russia of the Twenty-first Century: Image of a Desired Tomorrow) (Moscow: Institute of Contemporary Development, 2010).
50. "Igor Yurgens: 'Remember the Fate of the Thaw,' " Russkii Newsweek Online (April 29, 2009), via WNC (April 29, 2009).
51. Andrew Kramer, "Political Aide Says Kremlin May Need to Ease Control," New York Times (February 10, 2009), B3;
52. Anna Ovian, "Ne infektsiia, a patalogiia" (Not an Infection But a Pathology), Novaya gazeta (February 11, 2009).
53. Adrian Blomfield, "Dmitri Medvedev Aide Attacks Vladimir Putin's Concentration of Power," Daily Telegraph (May 19, 2009), at www.telegraph. co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/5345009/D, accessed June 8, 2009.
54. Evgenii Gontmakher, "Stsenarii: Novocherkassk-2009" (Scenario: Novocherkassk-2009), Vedomosti (November 6, 2008). Both Gontmakher and Vedomosti received a warning from Rosomsviaznadzor, the government organization entrusted with monitoring the media.
55. See also "Evgenii Gontmakher o sotsialnykh problemakh v Rossii" (Evgenii Gontmakher on Social Problems in Russia), Radio Svoboda (November 12, 2008), at www.svobodanews.ru/ article/printview/476694.html, accessed July 11, 2009.
56. Yevgenii Gontmakher, "Scenario: Moncloa Pact 2009," Vedomosti Online (December 20, 2008), via WNC (December 19, 2009);
57. "Russia-Surkov Attack Suggests Infighting Intensifies" (March 31, 2009), OSC Analysis, via WNC (March 31, 2009).
58. Evgenii Gontmakher, "Perekhod na lichnosti: ideologiia vs. politika" (Switching to Personalities: Ideology vs. Politics), Vedomosti (March 11, 2009).
59. This was not the first time that Gontmakher publicly criticized Surkov; also see "Russia-Surkov Attack Suggests Infighting Intensifies" (March 31, 2009), OS C Analysis, via WNC (March 31, 2009);
60. "Prominent Russian Experts Criticize Government Economic Policy," Ekho Moskvy Radio (February 24, 2009), via WNC (February 24, 2009).
61. Vladimir Mirov, "Fantomy liberalizatsii" (Phantoms of Liberalization), Gazeta.ru (April 4, 2009).
62. Gontmakher, "Perekhod na lichnosti"; Yevgenii Gontmakher, "The Kremlin's Propaganda Ministry," Moscow Times (March 16, 2009).
63. Gontmakher subsequently published his reflections on the media attack against him in Vedomosti, Obshchestvennaia diskussiia" (Public Discussion) (June 19, 2009), and in Moscow Times, Ideology Minister Surkov" (June 25, 2009).
64. "Vladislav Surkov: Ia ne soglasen, chto vsiakoe izmenenie landshafta dolzhno privodit k peresmotru strategii" (Vladislav Surkov: I Do Not Agree That Every Change in Terrain Should Bring with It a Change in Strategy), Polit.ru, www.polit.ru/country/2009/03/02/surkov-print.html, accessed July 3, 2009.
65. Also see "OS C Analysis: Russia-Surkov Attack Suggests Infighting Intensifies," March 31, 2009, via WNC (March 31, 2009). However, more recently there has been speculation that Surkov is shifting his allegiance from Putin to Medvedev. In April 2009 he was appointed the chair of a working group to oversee changes in the 2006 NGO Law, and in July 2009 he was appointed the co-chair of a bilateral U.S.-Russian working group on civil society. In addition, he has adopted a more open stance in public statements, a departure from his typical demeanor. See Claire Bigg, "Kremlin's 'Gray Cardinal' Steps Out of Shadows to Tout Reform," RFE/RL (July 9, 2009);
66. Brian Whitmore, "Russia's Hyperactive Ideologist," RFE/RL (June 19, 2009);
67. "OS C Analysis-Russia: Surkov Aligns Himself with Medvedev Agenda" (August 20, 2009), via WNC (August 20, 2009).
68. As president, Putin signed several international agreements endorsing pluralism (e.g., a Russia-EU summit, the Joint Declaration of the Presidents of Russia and India), but he does not use the term in his domestic speeches that refer to the development of civil society.
69. "Transcript: Bush's Speech in Georgia's Freedom Square" (May 10, 2005), at www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/10/A, accessed August 18, 2008.
70. "Russian Lawmaker Says No Prerequisites for 'Orange Revolution' in Kyrgyzstan," Agentstvo Voiennykh Novostei (March 22, 2005), via WNC (March 22, 2005).
71. See also the comments of Federation Council chairman Sergei Mironov in "Russian Senate Speaker Says Kyrgyz Events 'Not Another Colored Revolution,' " Itar-Tass (March 26, 2005), via WNC (March 26, 2005).
72. Mark Kramer, "Russian Policy Toward the Commonwealth of Independent States: Recent Trends and Future Prospects," Problems of Post-Communism 55, no.5 (November/December 2008): 6.
73. The text of the declaration can be found at www.sectsco.org/html/00500. html, Astana, July 5, 2005, accessed August 18, 2008. This request, however, was not repeated in the 2006 or 2007 declarations. The SCO members are Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. (Kyrgyzstan was a signatory to the agreement despite the presence of a U.S. base at Manas).
74. Vladimir Socor, "The CSTO: Missions, Capabilities, Political Ambitions," Eurasia Daily Monitor (February 6, 2009).
75. "CSTO Able to Prevent Color Revolutions in Member States-Secretary General," Russia and CIS Military Weekly (May 24, 2008), via www.lexis-nexis. com;
76. see also Kramer, "Russian Policy Toward the CIS," p. 15.
77. Fyodor Lukyanov, "Good Policies Should Make Good Neighbors," Moscow Times (March 19, 2008). Subsequently, Medvedev visited Kazakhstan en route to China.
78. See Dmitri Trenin, "Russia in the Caucasus: Reversing the Tide," Brown Journal of World Affairs 15, no.2 (spring/summer 2009) at www.carnegie.ru/ en/print/81702-print.htm, accessed February 14, 2010.
79. " 'Full Text' of Shanghai Cooperation Organization Dushanbe Declaration," Xinhua (August 30, 2008), via WNC (August 30, 2008). The document, however, did indicate support for "Russia's positive role in promoting peace and cooperation in this region."
80. C.J. Chivers and Ellen Barry, "Accounts Undercut Claims by Georgia on Russia War," New York Times (November 7, 2008), A1.
81. A classified Pentagon report in the fall of 2008 detailed the extensive problems of the Georgian military. See C.J. Chivers and Thom Shanker, "Georgia Lags in Its Bid to Fix Army," New York Times (December 18, 2008), A6.
82. On the problems of the Russian military, see Zoltan Barany, "Resurgent Russia? A Still Faltering Military," Policy Review, no.147 (February/March 2008): 39-52.
83. George Friedman, "Georgia and the Balance of Power," New York Review of Books 55, no.14 (September 25, 2008), at www.nybooks.com/ articles/21772.
84. See Bertil Nygren, "Putin's Use of Natural Gas to Reintegrate the CIS Region," Problems of Post-Communism 55, no.4 (July/August 2008): 3-15.
85. Angela E. Stent, "Restoration and Revolution in Putin's Foreign Policy," Europe-Asia Studies 60, no.6 (August 2008): 1089-1090.
86. For an overview of the Russian-Ukrainian Gas Dispute 2009, see the Russian Analytical Digest, no.53 (January 20, 2009), at www.res.ethz.ch/ analysis/rad/details.cfm?lng=en&id=95596, accessed January 23, 2009.
87. "Text of Russian Premier Putin's Interview with Germany's Channel One ARD," Government of the Russian Federation (January 15, 2009), via WNC (January 15, 2009).
88. "V.V. Putin dal interviu informatsionnomu agentstvu 'Blumberg' " (V.V. Putin Gave an Interview to the News Agency Bloomberg) (January 27, 2009), at http://premier.gov/ru/events/1892.html, accessed June 29, 2009.
89. "Text of Russian Premier Putin's Interview with Germany's Channel One ARD."
90. Aleksandra Samarina, "Narodnye druzhiny pod vybory-2012" (People's Militias for the 2012 Elections), Nezavisimaya gazeta (August 4, 2009).
91. Evgenii Gontmakher, "Modernizatsiia: alternativa vertikali" (Modernization: An Alternative to the Vertical Hierarchy), Vedomosti (August 8, 2009).
92. "Interview Given by Dmitri Medvedev to Television Channels Channel One, Rossia, NTV" (August 31, 2008), http://eng.kremlin.ru/ speeches/2008/08/31/1850-type92912type82916-206003.shtml, accessed July 9, 2009.
93. Pavel Felgenhauer, "Moscow Struggling to Transform CSTO into a 'Russian NA TO,'" Eurasia Daily Monitor (June 4, 2009).
94. After meeting with Medvedev in August 2009, President Aleksandr Lukashenko agreed that Belarus would sign the rapid reaction force agreement as well as assume the presidency of the CSTO.
95. Reportedly, the Russians offered the Kyrgyz leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev an array of financial incentives, including a $2 billion loan and $150 million in financial assistance. The United States then responded in negotiations by agreeing to triple the rent on the base, as well as make other monetary commitments (upgrading the airport, fighting drug trafficking and terrorism, etc.). See Vitalii Portnikov, "Return to Manas," Politkom.ru (July 6, 2009) via WNC (July 6, 2009 ).
96. Andrew C. Kuchins and Thomas Sanderson, "Central Asia's Northern Exposure," New York Times (August 4, 2009), www.nytimes.com/2009/08/05/ opinion/05iht-edkuchins.html.
97. "Western Observers Condemn Kyrgyz Presidential Election," AFP (July 24, 2009), via WNC (July 25, 2009);
98. Jeff Goldstein, "A Color Revolution in Bishkek Fades to Black," Moscow Times (August 12, 2009).
99. Luke Harding, "Rent Is Tripled But U.S. Keeps Vital Asian Airbase," Guardian International (June 24, 2009).
100. Kramer, "Russian Policy Toward the CIS," p. 15.
101. The other members of the project-Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova-constitute, with the exception of Armenia, the membership of the anti-Russian GUAM structure, formally titled the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development.
102. "Moldovan President Says Country Won't Join NA TO," RIA/Novosti (June 6, 2009) at http://enrian.ru/world/20090620/155304741-print.html, accessed July 27, 2009.
103. "Beginning of Meeting with President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin," June 22, 2009, at www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/speeches/2009/06/22/ 1627-ty- 382914, accessed July 27, 2009.
104. "Putin Warns Russia Political Reform Needs Caution," RFE/RL Newsline (January 22, 2010).