Russian policy toward the commonwealth of independent states recent trends and future prospects

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 55, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 3-19

  Kramer, Mark ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 58149269218     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2753/PPC1075-8216550601     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Interview with Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Valeri Chechelashvili, May 26, 2006, transcribed by Caucasus Press.
2. Kontseptsiia vneshnei politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation) (Moscow, July 12, 2008).
3. Vladimir Kuzar, "Piat printsipov vneshnei politiki" (Five Principles of Foreign Policy), Krasnaya zvezda (September 2, 2008): 1;
4. "Medvedev oglasil novye printsipy vneshnei politiki" (Medvedev Has Enunciated New Principles of Foreign Policy), Kommersant (September 1, 2008): 1.
5. Sergei Vladimirov, "Vladimir Putin: Grossmeister v igre" (Vladimir Putin: Grandmaster of the Game), Rossiiskie vesti (August 20, 2008): 4;
6. Ellen Barri, "Putin vsemi komanduet, chtoby zazhivliat starye rany" (Putin Commands Everyone to Heal Old Wounds), Vremya i dengi (Kazan) (August 14, 2008): 3;
7. Ulyana Makhkamova, Viktoriya Kruchinina, and Elina Bilevskaya, "Putin i Medvedev podelili sfery" (Putin and Medvedev Have Divided Up Their Spheres), Nezavisimaya gazeta (August 14, 2008): 3.
8. Paul Goble, "Forget the Soviet Union," Foreign Policy 90 (spring 1992): 56-65.
9. All of the former Soviet republics other than Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have taken part in the CIS. Georgia announced its withdrawal in August 2008, and since August 2005 Turkmenistan has been only an associate member. Ukraine, a co-founder of the CIS along with Russia and Belarus, did not actually sign the CIS charter but has participated in CIS activities and entities.
10. Official justifications aside, the Turkmen government's decision to change to associate membership may have been intended primarily to forestall any "contamination" from Ukraine, Georgia, or Kyrgyzstan. In any case, the downgrading has not significantly affected Turkmenistan's activities in the CIS or its relations with Russia on energy and other key issues. In the wake of President Saparmurat Niyazov's death in December 2006, some observers have speculated that Turkmenistan will eventually return to full membership.
11. "RF dolzhna aktivno otstaivat svoi pozitsii na postsovetskom prostranstve, no ot termina 'postsovetskii' pora otkazyvatsia - Ivanov" (The Russian Federation Must Actively Safeguard Its Positions in the Post-Soviet Space, But It's Time to Discard the Term "Post-Soviet"), ITAR-TASS (March 18, 2007).
12. Seminar with Dmitry Trenin, Moscow Carnegie Center, October 27, 2007. For an even stronger expression of this view, see Sergey Markedonov, "Caucasus Conflict Breaks Old Rules of the Game," Russian Analytical Digest (September 4, 2008): 5.
13. See, for example, Mark Kramer, "NATO, the Baltic States, and Russia: A Framework for Sustainable Enlargement," International Affairs 78, no. 4 (October 2002): 731-56.
14. On the links between these strands, see Jakob Hedenskog and Robert L. Larsson, Russian Leverage on the CIS and the Baltic States (Stockholm: Swedish Defense Research Agency, June 2007).
15. For a survey of Russia's bilateral relations with CIS countries during the Putin era, see Bertil Nylgren, The Rebuilding of Greater Russia: Putin's Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New York: Routledge, 2008).
16. On these plans, see Ekaterina Grigoreva, "Soiuzrasplyvaetsia: VForose lidery chetyrekh stran Sodruzhestva podpisy vaiut soglashenie, vokrug kotorogo popytaiutsia obedinitsia, esli zakhotiat" (The Union Is Widening: At Foros, the Leaders of Four Commonwealth Countries Are Signing an Agreement Around Which They Are Trying to Unite, If They Will Want To), Izvestia (September 19, 2003): 3;
17. Roman Streshnev, "Edinoe prostranstvo dlya 'chetverki': Vkhod otkryt" (A Single Space for the "Four": The Door Is Open), Krasnaya zvezda (September 20, 2003): 1;
18. Maksim Glikin, "Sgovor v Yalte: U stran SNG nikak ne poluchaetsia 'idti v nogu' " (The Deal at Yalta: The CIS Countries Are Not Succeeding at All in "Keeping Pace"), Nezavisimaya gazeta (September 22, 2003): 1.
19. "Vstrecha s prezidentom Uzbekistana Islamom Karimovym, Novo-ogarevo, 28 iiunia 2005 g." (Meeting with the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, in Novo-ogarevo, 28 June 2005), distributed by Information and Press Department, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
20. "Prezident Rossii: Dogovor o soiuznicheskikh otnosheniiakh vyvodit Rossiiu i Uzbekistan na printsipialno novoe kachestvo i maksimalno blizkuiu stepen vzaimodeistviia" (The President of Russia: The Treaty on Allied Relations is Bringing Russia and Uzbekistan to a Fundamentally New Quality and Maximally Close Degree of Cooperation), Flag Rodiny (Sevastopol) (November 16, 2005): 2.
21. "Press konferentsiia Prezidenta RFVladimira Putina. Kreml, 31 ianvara 2006 goda" (Press Conference of the President of the RF, Vladimir Putin, in the Kremlin, 31 January 2006), Rossiiskaya gazeta (February 1, 2006): 1, 2-4.
22. Cited in Oleg Stepanenko, "Belorussiia posle vyborov: Moment istiny" (Belarus After the Elections: Moment of Truth), Pravda (March 23, 2006): 1.
23. "Radiointerviu Prezidenta Gruzii Mikhaila Saakashvili" (Radio Interview with the President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili), Ekho Mosvky Radio (February 27, 2006), transcribed by Federal News Service.
24. See also Igor Plugatarev, "Mirotvortsy ukhodiat iz nepriznannykh respublik: Snachala rossiiskikh soldat vyvedut izYuzhnoi Ossetii, zatem iz Abkhazii" (Peacekeepers Are Leaving the Unrecognized Republics: Initially, Russian Soldiers Will Withdraw from South Ossetia and Later on from Abkhazia), Nezavisimoe voennoe ohozrenie (March 3, 2006): 4.
25. Ekaterina Grigoreva, "Shilo v stenku i na bokovuiu? Ranovato poka!" (Time to Turn in and Go to the Sidelines? It Is Still Too Early!), Izvestia (February 15, 2008): 1,3.
26. Liza Tonakanyan, "Ugrozy: Gruziia schitaet, chto Rossiia gotovitsia k voine" (Threats: Georgia Believes That Russia Is Preparing for War), Trud (April 28, 2008): 1;
27. Pavel Belov, "Rossiia gotova zashchishchat Abkhaziiu i Iuzhnuiu Osetiiu oruzhiem" (Russia Is Ready to Defend Abkhazia and South Ossetia with Force), Kommersant (April 26, 2008): 1.
28. For preliminary assessments of the evidence, see International Crisis Group (ICG), Russia vs. Georgia: The Fallout, Europe Report No. 195 (Brussels: ICG, August 22, 2008);
29. C.J. Chivers, "Georgia Offers Fresh Evidence on War's Start," New York Times (September 16, 2008): A1, A8;
30. "Russia and Georgia: A Scripted War," Economist (August 16-22, 2008): 24-26;
31. Svante Cornell, Johanna Popjanevski, and Niklas Nilsson, Russia's War in Georgia: Causes and Implications for Georgia and the World (Washington, DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, August 2008);
32. U.S. Congress, Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Russia, Georgia, and the Return of Power Politics: Hearings, 110th Cong., 2nd Sess., September 10, 2008.
33. Estimates by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, cited in Dan Bilefsky and Michael Schwirtz, "For Thousands of Refugees from the Conflict in Georgia, the Fear Lingers," New York Times (September 2, 2008): A7;
34. Isabel Gorst, "Georgia Conflict: Shifting Refugees Add to Region's Chaos," Financial Times (September 2, 2008): 7;
35. Marc Champion, "For Georgian Refugees the Way Home Gets Sealed Off," Wall Street Journal (August 22, 2008): 1, 8;
36. ICG, Russia vs. Georgia, p. 7.
37. "Lavrov: 'Mozhno pozabyt o razgovorakh pro territorialnuiu tselostnost' Gruzii'" (Any Discussion About Georgia's Territorial Integrity Should Be Forgotten), Kommersant (August 14, 2008): 1.
38. "Rossiia priznala nezavisimost Iuzhnoi Osetii i Abkhazii" (Russia Has Recognized the Independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia), Kommersant (August 27, 2008): 1.
39. Viktor Ruchkin, "A chego khochet Kishinev?" (What Exactly Does Chisinau Want?), Krasnaya zvezela (January 10, 2008): 3.
40. See the interview in Vladislav Inozerntsev, "Vladimir Voronin: 'Ne pugat drug druga i ne risovat Rossiiu v koltse "oranzevykh" vragov'" (Vladimir Voronin: We Shouldn't Frighten Each Other and Draw a Circle of "Orange" Enemies Around Russia), Profil (March 13, 2006): 34-35.
41. "Otmechena dinamika v peregovornom protsesse" (Dynamism Is Evident in the Negotiating Process), Nezavisimaya Moldova (October 31, 2007): 2;
42. "Vladimir Voronin: 'Byt ili ne byt SNG?' - etot vopros uzhe sniat" (Vladimir Voronin: "Will There Be or Not Be the CIS?" This Question Is Already Taken Care Of), Nezavisimaya Moldova (October 9, 2007);
43. Svetlana Gamova, "Tranzitnyi kompromiss" (Transit Compromise), Nezavisimaya gazeta (October 22, 2007): 18.
44. Anastasiya Novikova, "Pridnestrove ostanetsia v podveshennom sostoianii" (Transnistria Will Remain on a Heightened State of Alert), Gazeta (August 26, 2006): 5.
45. Statements quoted in this paragraph are from the official transcript, "Nachalo vstrechi s Prezidentom Moldavii Vladimirom Voroninym, 25 avgusta 2008 goda, Sochi" (The Start of a Meeting with the President of Moldova, Vladimir Voronin, 25 August 2008), Moscow, August 25, 2008. For accounts of the meeting, see "Pridnestrovskii konflikt: Reshenie - tolko mirnoe" (The Transnistrian Conflict: A Resolution Only Through Peaceful Means), Nezavisimaya Moldova (August 26, 2008): 1;
46. "Edinstvo v voprosakh reintegratsii" (Unity on the Questions of Reintegration), Nezavisimaya gazeta (August 26, 2008);
47. Novikova, "Pridnestrove ostanetsia v podveshennom sostoianii," p. 5.
48. Olga Allenova, Elena Geda, and Vladimir Novikov, "Mirovaia praktika: Blok NATO razoshelsia na blokpakefy" (World Practice: The NATO Bloc Has Broken into Bloc Groupings), Kommersant (April 7, 2008): 1, 3.
49. "Rossiia 'budet delat vse, chtoby ne dopustit priniatiia Ukrainy i Gruzii v NATO" (Russia Will Do Everything to Prevent the Admission of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO), PRAIM-TASS Newswire (April 8, 2008).
50. "Mrachnye stsenarii otnoshenii mezhdu Rossiei i Ukrainoi" (Gloomy Scenarios of Relations Between Russia and Ukraine), Vechernyaya Moskva (August 20, 2008): 1, 3;
51. "Rosiya obitsyae zakhyshchaty svoikh hromadyan u Krimu" (Russia Promises to Defend Its Citizens in Crimea), Ukrainska pravda (August 28,2008): 1;
52. Myksola Siruk," 'Nelegkyi vybir': Vyznavshy Abkhaziyu ta Pivdennu Osetiyu, Rosiya kynula vyklyk mizhnarodnomu pravu" (A Difficult Choice: By Recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia Has Posed a Challenge to International Law), Den (Kyiv), (August 27, 2008): 4.
53. Sluzhba vneshnei razvedki Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation), Rasshirenie NATO i bezopasnost Rossiiskoi Federatsii (The Enlargement of NATO and the Security of the Russian Federation) (Moscow: SVR, November 1996), pp. 7, 11.
54. Bank of Finland, "Pricing of Russian Natural Gas, 2005-2007," January 2008.
55. "Tymoshenko: Naftohaz/Hazprom domovylys pro tsinu ta usunennya vsikh poserednykiv" (Tymoshenko: Naftohaz and Gazprom Have Reached Agreement on Prices and the Setting Aside of All Intermediaries), UNIAN Informatsiine agentsvo Newswire (March 13, 2008), item 240821.
56. Vladimir Socor, "Gazprom Eyes Takeover of BelTransGaz," Eurasia Daily Monitor (May 20, 2004).
57. Judy Dempsey, "Gazprom Wins Belarus Victory: Deal Gives Russian Company Control of Vital Gas Network," International Herald Tribune (December 29, 2006): 9.
58. "Gazprom namechaet priobresti dopolnitelnykh aktsii ZAO ArmRos-gazprom" (Gazprom Intends to Acquire Additional Stakes in ZAO ArmRos-gazprom), Itar-TASS Newswire (December 13, 2007).
59. Fedor Lukyanov, "Gaz protiv aliansa" (Gas Against the Alliance), Ogonek (March 31, 2008): 24-26;
60. Valerii Dzhalagoniya "Konkurenty s trubami napereves" (Competition in Pipelines Behind the Scenes), Ekho planety (February 8, 2008): 5;
61. and the comments by Vladimir Milov, the head of the Institute for Energy Policy, in Evgenii Kiselev, "Sistema 'gaz-vybory' " (The System "Gas-Elections"), Novaya gazeta (January 28, 2008): 14.
62. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Caspian Sea Region: Natural Gas Export Options, Country Analysis Brief (July 2002).
63. Nicklas Norling, "The Nabucco Pipeline: Reemerging Momentum in Europe's Front Yard," and Svante E. Cornell, "Trans-Caspian Pipelines and Europe's Energy Security," both in Europe's Energy Security: Gazprom's Dominance and Caspian Supply Alternatives, ed. Svante E. Cornell and Niklas Nilsson (Washington, DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2008), pp. 127-40 and 141-54, respectively.
64. Aleksandr Yakuba,"'Gazprom' produvaet trubu" (Gazprom Is Blowing the Dust Off a Pipeline), Russkii kirer (May 14, 2007): 9.
65. Dmitrii Butrin, "Karty, dengi, dve truby" (Maps, Money, and Two Pipelines), Kommersant (May 14, 2007): 3.
66. "Deshevogo gaza v SNG bolshe net" (There Will Be No More Cheap Gas in the CIS), Respuhlika (Almaty) (March 14, 2008): 2.
67. Robert L. Larsson, Russia's Energy Policy: Security Dimensions and Russia's Reliability as an Energy Supplier (Stockholm: Swedish Defense Research Agency, 2006), pp. 296-99.
68. Jonathan P. Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005).
69. Andreas Heinrich, "Gazprom's Expansion Strategy in Europe and the Liberalization of EU Energy Markets," Russian Analytical Digest (February 5, 2008): 3.
70. Aleksandr Gabuev and Vladimir Solovev, "SNG postavili pered paktom" (They Have Placed the CIS Before a Pact), Kommersant (October 8, 2007): 9.
71. See also Andrei Korbut, "ODKB prevratilas v moshchnyi soiuz" (The CSTO Has Been Transformed into a Mighty Alliance), VPK: Voenno-promyshlennyi kurer, no. 39 (October 10, 2007): 1.
72. Sergei Shakaryants, "Mirotvorcheskie sily ODKB sozdany, voennomu vzaimodeistviiu s ShOS - byt!" (CSTO Peacekeeping Forces Have Been Set Up, and There Will Be Military Cooperation with the SCO), Severnyi Kavkaz (Nalchik) (October 10, 2007): 3.
73. See, for example, Yurii Vladimirov, "ChS v formate ODKB" (Emergency Situation Forces in the CSTO Format), Kazakhstanskaya pravda (March 29, 2008): 3.
74. Mikhail Lukin, "Vse rossiiskie bazy" (All Russian Bases), Kommersant-Vlast (May 22, 2007): 69-77.
75. For a useful overview of Russian military activities in Georgia, Moldova, and Tajikistan in the 1990s, see Dov Lynch, Russian Peacekeeping Strategies in the CIS: The Cases of Moldova, Georgia, and Tajikistan (New York: Mac-millan, 2000). For a brief discussion of Russian military activities in the CIS during the Putin years, see Nygren, Rebuilding of Greater Russia, pp. 86-93, 131-49, and 189-93.
76. Sluzhba vneshnei razvedki RF (Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation), "Rossiia-SNG: Nuzhdaetsia li v korrektirovke pozitsiii Zapada?" (Russia-CIS: Is the Position of the West in Need of Correction?), Rossiiskaya gazeta (September 22, 1994): 1, 6.
77. On Soviet decision making in 1968, see Mark Kramer, "The Czechoslovak Crisis and the Brezhnev Doctrine," in 1968: The World Transformed, ed. Carole Fink, Philipp Gassert, and Detlef Junker (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp. 111-74.
78. Mark Kramer, "Prospects for Islamic Radicalism and Violent Extremism in the North Caucasus and Central Asia," PONARS Eurasia Memo No. 28 (Georgetown University, Washington, DC, August 2008), pp. 105-9.
79. See, for example, Sergei Lavrov, "Mir v poiskakh novogo ravnovesiia" (The World in Search of a New Equilibrium), Nezavisimaya gazeta (September 15,2008): 13. The article is adapted from a speech Lavrov gave at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations on September 1, 2008.
80. Richard N. Cooper, "China's Coming Demand for Energy," in China, Asia, and the New World Economy, ed. Barry Eichengreen, Charles Wyplosz, and Yung Chul Park (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 1-17.
81. Lavrov, "Mir v poiskakh novogo ravnovesiia," p. 13.
82. Kuzar, "Piat printsipov vneshnei politiki," p. 1.