The theory of epidemiologic transition: The origins of a citation classic

Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences

Volumn 65, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 287-326

  Weisz, George ^a   Olszynko Gryn, Jesse ^b  

^a MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Demographic transition; Epidemiologic transition; Family planning; Population control; Public health; World Health Organization

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CHRONIC DISEASE; EGYPT; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FAMILY PLANNING; HISTORY; HUMAN; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PUBLIC HEALTH; RELIGION; SOCIAL CHANGE; UNITED STATES; WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION;

CHRONIC DISEASE; EGYPT; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HUMANS; ISLAM; POPULATION CONTROL; PUBLIC HEALTH; SOCIAL CHANGE; UNITED STATES; WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION;

EID: 77953244885     PISSN: 00225045     EISSN: 14684373     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/jhmas/jrp058     Document Type: Article

References (174)

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7. Also see Jean-Marie Robine, "Life Course, Environmental Change, and Life Span," Population Devel. Rev. 2003, 29: 229-38;
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9. Abdel R. Omran, "Use of the "Epidemiological Approach" in Evaluation of Tuberculosis Case-Finding by Tuberculin Testing of Young Children in an Area with Underdeveloped Resources." Doctor of Public Health thesis, Columbia University, 1959.
10. David S. Jones, "The Health Care Experiments at Many Farms: The Navajo, Tuberculosis, and the Limits of Modern Medicine, 1952-1962," Bull. Hist. Med., 2002, 76, 749-790
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18. See for example, Finkle and Crane, "The World Health Organization and the Population Issue";
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25. UNFPA, The United Nations and Population, 204-211
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29. Nelly Oudshoorn, "From Population Control Politics to Chemicals: The WHO as an Intermediary Organization in Contraceptive Development," Soc. Stud. Sci., 1997, 27, 41-72.
30. Zahra and Strudwick, "The Role of the World Health Organization."
31. A. R. Omran and C. C. Standley, Family Formation Patterns and Health: An International Collaborative Study in India, Iran, Lebanon, Philippines, and Turkey (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1976);
32. A. R. Omran and C. C. Standley, Family Formation Patterns and Health, Further Studies: An International Collaborative Study in Colombia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the Syrian Arab Republic (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1981).
33. Robert S. McNamara, One Hundred Countries, Two Billion People: The Dimensions of Development (New York: Praeger, 1973), 26-27;
34. Crane and Finkle, "Organizational Impediments to Development Assistance," 517.
35. Martha Finnemore, "Redefining Development at the World Bank," in International Development and the Social Sciences: Essays on the History and Politics of Knowledge, ed. Frederick Cooper and Randall Packard (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997), 203-27;
36. Jennifer Prah Ruger, "The Changing Role of the World Bank in Global Health," Am. J. Public Health 2005, 95, 60-70;
37. Crane and Finkle, "Organizational Impediments to Development Assistance."
38. Matthew Connelly, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2008).
39. Matthew Connelly, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population , 2008, Ibid.
40. Randall M. Packard, "Visions of Postwar Health and Development and Their Impact on Public Health Interventions in the Developing World," in International Development and the Social Sciences: Essays on the History and Politics of Knowledge, ed. Cooper and Packard, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997) 93-115, 105.
41. Finkle and Crane, "The World Health Organization and the Population Issue"; Connelly, Fatal Misconception.
42. Connelly, Fatal Misconception, 263.
43. Connelly, Fatal Misconception , Ibid., 290.
44. Hans C. Blaise, "Who Is Responsible for Population Program Management?" in Readings on Family Planning and Population Program Management. Background Papers for a Ford Foundation Meeting on Population, Elsinore, Denmark, June 1972, ed. Ford Foundation (New York: Ford Foundation, 1973), 97-111;
45. Forrest E. Linder, "Fertility and Family Planning in Relation to Public Health," Milbank Mem. Fund. Q., 1971, 49, 192-207.
46. Connelly, Fatal Misconception.
47. Jason L. Finkle and Barbara B. Crane, "The Politics of Bucharest: Population, Development, and the New International Economic Order," Population Devel. Rev. 1975, 1, 87-114;
48. Jason L. Finkle and C. Alison McIntosh, "United Nations Population Conferences: Shaping the Policy Agenda for the Twenty-First Century," Stud. Family Plann., 2002, 33, 11-23.
49. Connelly, Fatal Misconception, 143-44;
50. Peter J. Donaldson, "On the Origins of the United States Government's International Population Policy," Pop. Stud., 1990, 44, 385-399, especially 387.
51. Simon Szreter, "The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility Change: A Critical Intellectual History," Population Devel. Rev., 1993, 19, 659-701;
52. John Sharpless, "Population Science, Private Foundations, and Development Aid: The Transformation of Demographic Knowledge in the United States, 1945-1965," in International Development and the Social Sciences: Essays on the History and Politics of Knowledge, ed. Cooper and Packard, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997) 176-200.
53. For a good overview of the major players, see the contributors to The Population Dilemma, ed. Philip M. Hauser (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1969).
54. Marshall C. Balfour, Roger F. Evans, Frank W. Notestein, and Irene B. Taeuber, Public Health and Demography in the Far East (New York: The Rockefeller Foundation, 1950);
55. Connelly, Fatal Misconception
56. John B. Wyon and John E. Gordon, The Khanna Study: Population Problems in the Rural Punjab (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1971);
57. Mahmood Mamdani, The Myth of Population Control: Family, Caste, and Class in an Indian Village (New York: Monthly Review, 1972).
58. Anon., "Policy Statement: The Population Problem," Am. J. of Public Health 1959, 49, 1703.
59. Donald Harting and Leslie Corsa, "The American Public Health Association and the Population Problem," Am. J. Public Health, 1969, 59, 1927-29.
60. Ira W. Gabrielson, Mindel C. Sheps, Carl S. Shultz, and Leo G. Reeder, "Current Status of Population Research in Schools of Public Health," Am. J. Public Health, 1970, 60, 913-918
61. Roger Revelle, "Can Man Domesticate Himself?" Bull. At. Sci., 1966, 22, 2-7.
62. Marshall C. Balfour, "Population and Family Planning Programs in US Schools of Public Health," Stud. Family Plann., 1968, 1, 12-16.
63. Marshall C. Balfour, "Population and Family Planning Programs in US Schools of Public Health," Stud. Family Plann., 1968, 1, 12-16., Ibid.
64. Robert R. Korstad, Dreaming of a Time: The School of Public Health, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1939-1989 (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: The School of Public Health, 1990);
65. John C. Caldwell and Patricia Caldwell, Limiting Population Growth and the Ford Foundation Contribution (London: Frances Pinter, 1986);
66. Carolina Population Center, A Guide to the Carolina Population Center and Its Affiliated Programs (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1975
67. Carolina Population Center History Project Web Site. http://www.cpc.unc. edu/history (accessed 31 August 2009).
68. Balfour, "Population and Family Planning Programs."
69. Michel A. Ibrahim, Berton H. Kaplan, Ralph C. Patrick, Cecil Slome, Herman A. Tyroler, and Robert N. Wilson, "The Legacy of John C. Cassel," Am. J. Epidemiol., 1980, 112, 1-7, 2.
70. Peter Goethals and Berton H. Kaplan, "Medical Anthropology at the University of North Carolina: A Preliminary Note," Proc. So. Anthro. Soc., 1968, 1, 55-63.
71. A. L. Johnson, C. D. Jenkins, R. Patrick, R. J. Northcutt Jr., Epidemiology of Polio Vaccine Acceptance (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: The School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, 1962).
72. Abdel R. Omran, Epidemiological Aspects of Health and Population Dynamics: Proceedings of a Faculty Seminar in India. (Published in Bulletin of the Gandhigram Institute of Rural Health and Family Planning, 1969, 4.)
73. Egon Diczfalusy, "World Health Organization Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, the First Fifteen Years: A Review," Contraception, 1986, 34, 3-119.
74. Caldwell and Caldwell, Limiting population growth.
75. See for example, Kharia F. Omran and Jaroslav F. Hulka, "Tubal Occlusion: A Comparative Study," Int. J. Fertil., 1970, 15, 226-41;
76. Hulka and Omran, "Comparative Tubal Occlusion: Rigid and Spring-Loaded Clips," Fertil. Steril., 1972, 23, 633-639.
77. Sagar C. Jain and Steven W. Sindling, North Carolina Abortion Law 1967: A Study in Legislative Process (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: Carolina Population Center, 1968);
78. Jaroslav F. Hulka, Therapeutic Abortion: A Chapel Hill Symposium (Chapel Hill: Carolina Population Center, 1968);
79. William B. Walker and Jaroslav F. Hulka, "Attitudes and Practices of North Carolina Obstetricians: The Impact of the North Carolina Abortion Act of 1967," South. Med. J., 1971, 64, 441-445
80. Carolina Population Center, A Population Program of Research, Education, and Service (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina, 1966).
81. R. Scott Moreland, Kong Chu, Edward Jacobson, and Thomas H. Naylor, "The Carolina Population Center Family Planning Administration Training Game," Manage. Sci., 1972, 18, B635-44.
82. National Academy of Sciences, Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications. Prepared by a Study Committee of the Office of the Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences, with Support of the Agency for International Development (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971).
83. Abdel R. Omran, "Abortion and Demographic Transition," in Rapid Population Growth, ed. National Academy of Sciences, 479-532.
84. See for example, Abdel R. Omran, Fertility and Health: The Latin American Experience (Washington, DC: Pan American Health Organization, 1985);
85. Abdel R. Omran, Joao Yunes, José Antonio Solis, and Guillermo Lopez, eds, Reproductive Health in the Americas (Washington, DC: Pan American Health Organization, 1992).
86. See for example, Abdel R. Omran, "Impact of Economic Development on Health Patterns in Egypt," Arch. Environ. Health, 1966, 13, 117-24;
87. Abdel R. Omran, Egypt: Population Problems & Prospects (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: Carolina Population Center, 1973);
88. Abdel R. Omran, "Egypt's Population Problems and Prospects Reassessed (Statement, April 26, 1978)," in Population and Development: Status and Trends of Family Planning/Population Programs in Developing Countries. Vol.2. Hearings, April 25-27, 1978, ed. United States Congress, House of Representatives, Select Committee on Population (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978), 514-542
89. Abdel R. Omran, "Epidemiologic, Sociologic, and Theologic Aspects of Muslim Fertility," in International Workshop on Communications in Family Planning Programs (Teheran, June 6-18, 1970), Final Report, ed. Robert R. Blake (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: The Carolina Population Center, 1971), 32-55, 32.
90. Isam R. Nazar, Hasan S. Karmi, and Mahmud Y. Zayid, eds., Islam & Family Planning: A Faithful Translation of the Arabic Edition of the Proceedings of the International Islamic Conference Held in Rabat (Morocco), December, 1971 (Beirut: International Planned Parenthood Federation, 1974), 331.
91. Anonymous, "Rx For Good Will."
92. Omran, "Epidemiologic, Sociologic, and Theologic Aspects," 42-43.
93. Abdel Rahim Omran, Family Planning in the Legacy of Islam (London: Routledge, 1992).
94. See for example, Suad Joseph, ed., Encyclopedia of Women & Islamic Cultures, Volume III: Family, Body, Sexuality and Health (Leiden & Boston: Brill, 2006).
95. Steven W. Mosher, Population Control: Real Costs, Illusory Benefits (New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 2008), 104;
96. see also Elizabeth Liagin, "Money for Lies, Part II: How the First World Uses Cash to Undermine Nigerian Love of Children," Population Research Institute Review 1999, 9, 5-8.
97. Abdel R. Omran, The Health Theme in Family Planning (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: Carolina Population Center, 1971).
98. See for example, Abdel R. Omran, "Epidemiological and Sociological Aspects of Abortion," in Induced Abortion: A Hazard to Public Health? Proceedings of the First Conference of the IPPF Middle East and North Africa Region, February, 1971, Beirut, Lebanon, ed. Isam R. Nazer (Beirut: IPPF, 1972), 20-77;
99. Abdel R. Omran, "Legalizing Abortion: Impact on Natality Transition in Various Social & Development Settings," in Liberalization of Abortion Laws: Implications, ed. Abdel R. Orman (Chapel Hill, NC: Carolina Population Center, 1976), 18-45.
100. Omran, "Epidemiologic Transition," 530-531
101. Omran, Health Theme, 139.
102. Adbel R. Omran, "Population Epidemiology: Emerging Field of Inquiry for Population and Health Students," Am. J. Public Health 1974, 64, 674-79, 677.
103. Omran, Health Theme, 144.
104. Abdel R. Omran, "The Health Rationale for Family Planning," in Population Change: A Strategy for Physicians. Proceedings of the International Conference on the Physician and Population Change, Stockholm, Sweden, ed. Lucille S. Bloch (Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges, 1975), 117-55, 117.
105. Abdel R. Omran, "The Health Rationale for Family Planning,", Proceedings of the International Conference on the Physician and Population Change, Ibid., 147.
106. Letter to Dr. John Cassel from Abdel R. Omran, 21 July 1970. "WHO Conference on Human Reproduction in Teheran and Baghdad." #40120, Records of the Dean of the School of Public Health, Subgroup 5: Epidemiology, Box 5:1, Health Affairs: School of Public Health, UNC Archives, Archives of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC.
107. Omran, Epidemiological Aspects of Health and Population Dynamics.
108. Omran, "Population Epidemiology."
109. Abdel R. Omran, "The Epidemiologic Transition in North Carolina during the Last 50 to 90 Years: I. The Mortality Transition," N. C. Med. J., 1975, 36, 23-28;
110. Abdel R. Omran, "The Epidemiologic Transition in North Carolina during the Last 50 to 90 Years: II. Changing Patterns of Disease and Causes of Death," N. C. Med. J., 1975, 36, 83-88.
111. See for instance Omran, "Population Epidemiology."
112. Abdel R. Omran, "A Century of Epidemiologic Transition in the United States," Prev. Med., 1977, 6, 30-51, 50.
113. Omran 1971, "Abortion and Demographic Transition."82.
114. David Riesman, Nathan Glazer, and Reuel Denney, The Lonely Crowd: A Study of Changing American Character (New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University, 1950)
115. Charles B. Arnold, [Book Review of David Wolfers, Post-partum Intra-uterine Contraception in Singapore (1970)], Milbank Mem. Fund. Q., 1971, 49, 539-545
116. Mervyn Susser, "Epidemiology in the United States after World War II: The Evolution of Technique," Epidemiol. Rev., 1985, 7, 147-77;
117. Daniel M. Fox, Power and Illness: The Failure and Future of American Health Policy (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993);
118. Gerald N. Grob, The Deadly Truth: A History of Disease in America (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 2002).
119. Abdel R. Omran, "The World Population Problem," in Community Medicine in Developing Countries, ed. Abdel R. Omran (New York: Springer, 1974), 107-108
120. Omran, "Epidemiologic Transition," 535.
121. World Health Organization, "Health Trends and Prospects in Relation to Population and Development," in The Population Debate: Dimensions and Perspectives: Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974, Vol.1 (New York: United Nations, 1975), 573-597
122. World Health Organization 1975, "Health and Family Planning," in The Population Debate: Dimensions and Perspectives: Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974, Vol.2 (New York: United Nations, 1975), 471
123. Abdel R. Omran, "A Preliminary Application of the Theory of Epidemiologic Transition to Egypt," Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, 1972, 6, 95-118, 102-103
124. Omran, "Epidemiologic Transition," 536.
125. Abdel R. Omran, "The Epidemiologic Transition Theory. A Preliminary Update," J. Trop. Pediatr., 1983, 29, 305-16, 313.
126. Abdel R. Omran, "The Epidemiologic Transition Theory. A Preliminary Update," J. Trop. Pediatr., 1983, 29, Ibid., 315-316
127. Abdel R. Omran, Reassessment of the Prospects for Fertility Decline in Egypt: Is Development a Prerequisite? (Washington, DC: Bureau for Near East, Agency for International Development, 1980), 43.
128. Abdel R. Omran, Population Problems and Prospects in the Arab World (New York: United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 1984), 39.
129. Michael S. Teitelbaum, "Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries," Science, 1975, 188, 420-25, 424.
130. On medicalization of overpopulation, see Randall M. Packard, "Visions of Postwar Health and Development," 108.
131. Frederick S. Jaffe and Steven Polgar, "Epidemiological Indications for Fertility Control: A Preliminary Formulation," J. Christian Med. Assoc. India [Family Planning Project Suppl.], 1967, 12-20
132. [reprinted in Steven Polgar and Alexander Kessler, An Introduction to Family Planning in the Context of Health Services (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1968].
133. Steven Polgar, "Population History and Population Policies from an Anthropological Perspective," Curr. Anthropol., 1972, 13, 203-211
134. Alexander Kessler and Susi Kessler, "Application of Epidemiological Methodology to Family Planning Care in Health Services," in Uses of Epidemiology in Planning Health Services. Proceedings of the Sixth International Scientific Meeting, August 29-September 3, 1971, Primosten, Yugoslavia, ed. A. Michael Davies (Belgrade: Savremena Administracija, 1973), 733-739
135. Alexander Kessler and Susi Kessler, "Application of Epidemiological Methodology to Family Planning Care in Health Services,", Proceedings of the Sixth International Scientific Meeting, August 29-September 3, 1971, (1973) Ibid., 736-737
136. Omran, "Epidemiologic Transition," 509-510
137. Adbel R. Omran, "An Appraisal of Population Theories with an Introduction to the Theory of Epidemiologic Transition," Egyptian Pop. Family Planning Rev., 1972, 6, 75- 93, 86.
138. Omran, Epidemiological Aspects of Health and Population Dynamics, vol.2, 1.
139. Training Grant Application, 1972. #40120, Records of the Dean of the School of Public Health, Subgroup 5: Epidemiology, Box 5:1; "Contracts and Grants, 1955-1980," UNC Archives.
140. Omran, "Population Epidemiology."
141. Training Grant Application, 1972.
142. Omran, Epidemiological Aspects of Health and Population Dynamics, vol.2, 11.
143. Omran, Epidemiological Aspects of Health and Population Dynamics, vol.2, Ibid., 12.
144. Omran, Epidemiological Aspects of Health and Population Dynamics, Ibid.
145. Omran, "Population Epidemiology," 676.
146. Omran, "Population Epidemiology,", Ibid., 679.
147. John Sharpless, "World Population Growth, Family Planning, and American Foreign Policy," J. Policy Hist., 1995, 7, 72-102.
148. NIH, Electronic Data Base. On this grant see above.
149. Omran, "Egypt's Population Problems and Prospects Reassessed," 126
150. J. P. Mackenbach, "The Epidemiologic Transition Theory," J. Epidemiol. Community Health, 1994, 48, 329-31, 329;
151. John M. Last, A Dictionary of Epidemiology (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988), did however have a two-line entry on the demographic transition. In contrast to his neglect by epidemiologists, Omran is included in William Petersen and Renee Petersen, Dictionary of Demography. Biographies (Westport: Greenwood Press, 1985)
152. and himself wrote the entry on his theory for the first edition of the Encyclopedia of Population. See A. R. Omran, "Epidemiologic Transition: Theory," in International Encyclopedia of Population, ed. John A. Ross (New York: Free Press), 172-175
153. Mackenbach's article did have some impact. The next edition of the Dictionary of Epidemiology (1995) included an entry on the theory that concluded with Mackenbach's criticisms.
154. See, for example, David W. Broudy and Philip A. May, "Demographic and Epidemiologic Transition among the Navajo Indians," Soc. Biol., 1983, 30, 1-16;
155. Robert A. Hackenberg and Mary M. Gallagher "The costs of cultural change: Accidental injury and modernization among the papago Indians," Hum. Organ., 1972, 31, 211-226
156. Stephen J. Kunitz, "Factors Influencing Recent Navajo and Hopi Population Changes," Hum. Organ., 1974, 33, 7-16.
157. Heather Wachtel, "The Epidemiologic Transition: Demography, Development and the Displacement of Infectious Disease" (Honors BA thesis, Harvard University, 2003), recognizes this trend but interprets it rather differently than we do.
158. James N. Gribble and Samuel H. Preston, The Epidemiological Transition: Policy and Planning Implications for Developing Countries by Committee on Population, National Research Council (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1993).
159. Kenneth G. Manton, "The Dynamics of Population Aging: Demography and Policy Analysis," Milbank Q., 1991, 69, 309-338
160. S. Jay Olshansky and A. Brian Ault, "The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases," Milbank Q., 1986, 64, 355-391
161. Ibid. This paper was originally presented at a 1985 conference on the ethics and economics of rationing health care for the elderly. See Timothy M. Smeeding, ed., Should Medical Care Be Rationed by Age? (Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Littlefield, 1987), 11-43.
162. See for example, Sulaiman M. Bah, "Quantitative Approaches to Detect the Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition," Soc. Biol., 1995, 42, 143-148
163. See for example, Daniel S. Gaylin and Jennifer Kates, "Refocusing the Lens: Epidemiologic Transition Theory, Mortality Differentials, and the AIDS Pandemic," Soc. Sci. Med., 1997, 44, 609-621
164. Richard G. Rogers and Robert Hackenberg, "Extending Epidemiologic Transition Theory: A New Stage," Soc. Biol., 1987, 34, 234-243
165. S. Jay Olshansky, Bruce A. Carnes, Richard G. Rogers, and Len Smith, "Emerging Infectious Diseases: The Fifth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition?" World Health Stat. Q., 1998, 51, 207-217
166. Abdel R. Omran, "The Epidemiologic Transition Theory Revisited Thirty Years Later," World Health Stat. Q., 1998, 51, 99-119, 102.
167. Abdel R. Omran, "The Epidemiologic Transition Theory Revisited Thirty Years Later," World Health Stat. Q., 1998, 51, Ibid., 114.
168. See for example, Henry Blackburn, "Cardiovascular Disease Epidemiology," in The Development of Modern Epidemiology: Personal Reports from Those Who Were There, ed. Walter W. Holland, Jørn Olsen, and Charles du V. Florey (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), 71-92, 85.
169. Mackenbach, "Epidemiologic Transition Theory," 329;
170. also see Martínez S. Carolina and Leal F. Gustavo, "Epidemiological Transition: Model or Illusion? A Look at the Problem of Health in Mexico," Soc. Sci. Med., 2003, 57, 539-550
171. Julio Frenk, José L. Bobadilla, Jaime Sepú lveda, and Malaquias López Cervantes, "Health Transition in Middle-Income Countries: New Challenges for Health Care," Health Pol. Plann., 1989, 4, 29-39;
172. Julio Frenk, José Luis Bobadilla, Claudio Stern, Tomas Frejka, and Rafael Lozano, "Elements for a Theory of the Health Transition," Health Trans. Rev., 1991, 1, 21-38.
173. Julio Frenk, José Luis Bobadilla, Claudio Stern, Tomas Frejka, and Rafael Lozano, "Elements for a Theory of the Health Transition," Health Trans. Rev., 1991, 1, 21-38., Ibid. (to both sources).
174. See for example, Jacques Vallin and France Meslé, "Convergences and Divergences in Mortality. A New Approach to Health Transition," Demographic Research [Special Collection 2], 2004, 12-43.