Evaluation of the results for an intermediate-term prediction of the 8 january 2006 Mw 6.9 Cythera earthquake in the southwestern Aegean

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Volumn 97, Issue 1 B, 2007, Pages 347-352

  Papazachos, B C ^a   Karakaisis, G F ^a   Papazachos, C B ^a   Scordilis, E M ^a  

^a ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI   (Greece)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CRITICAL EARTHQUAKES; CRITICAL POINTS; CRITICAL REGION; CYCLADES; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FOCAL DEPTH; GEOGRAPHIC COORDINATES; MACROSEISMIC; MAINSHOCK; MODEL UNCERTAINTIES; MOMENT MAGNITUDES; SEISMIC DEFORMATION;

EQUATIONS OF STATE; FORECASTING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EARTHQUAKES;

EID: 37349131818     PISSN: 00371106     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/0120060075     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Allégre, C. J., and J. L. Le Mouel (1994). Introduction of scaling techniques in the brittle failure of rocks, Phys. Earth. Planet. Interiors 87, 85-93.
2. Ben-Zion, Y., and V. Lyakhovsky (2002). Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquake faults, Pure Appl. Geophys. 159, 2385-2412.
3. Ben-Zion, Y., K. Dahmen, V. Lyakhovsky, D. Ertas, and A. Agnon (1999). Self driven mode switching of earthquake activity on a fault system, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 172, 11-21.
4. Bowman, D. D., G. Quillon, C. G. Sammis, A. Sornette, and D. Sornette (1998). An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res. 103, no. 24, 372.
5. Bufe, C. G., and D. J. Varnes (1993). Predictive modeling of seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 9871-9883.
6. Guarino, A. S., S. Ciliberto, and A. Garcimartin (1999). Failure time and microcrack nucleation, Europhys. Lett. 47, 456-461.
7. Jaumé, S. C., and L. R. Sykes (1999). Evolving towards a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release rate prior to large and great earthquakes, eophys. 155, 279-306.
8. Knopoff, L., T. Levshina, V. J. Keillis-Borok, and C. Mattoni (1996). Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 5779-5796.
9. Mogi, K. (1969). Some features of the recent seismic activity in and near Japan. II. Activity before and after great earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 47, 395-417.
10. Papazachos, B. C., and C. B. Papazachos (2000). Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157,1663-1681.
11. Papazachos, B. C., and C. B. Papazachou (2003). The Earthquakes of Greece, Ziti Editions, Thessaloniki, 286 pp. (in Greek).
12. Papazachos, B. C., G. F. Karakaisis, C. B. Papazachos, and E. M. Scordilis (2006a). Perspectives for earthquake prediction in the Mediterranean and contribution of geological observations, J. Geol. Soc. London 260,689-707.
13. Papazachos, B. C., G. F. Karakaisis, C. B. Papazachos, E. M. Scordilis, and A. S. Savaidis (2002a). Space and Time variation of seismicity in the region of Greece, Final Report to the Greek Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (OASP) under project 20242 Aristotle Univ. Thessaloniki Research Committee (3 December 2002), 21 pp.
14. Papazachos, B. C., E. M. Scordilis, C. B. Papazachos, and G. F. Karakaisis (2006b). A forward test of the precursory decelerating and accelerating seismicity model for California, J. Seism. 10, 213-224, doi 10.1007/s10950-005-9009-4.
15. Papazachos, C. B. (2001). An algorithm of intermediate-term earthquake prediction using a model of accelerating seismic deformation, in Second Hellenic Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, 28-30 November 2001, 107-115.
16. Papazachos, C. B. (2003). Minimum preshock magnitude in critical regions of accelerating seismic crustal deformation, Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl. 44,103-113.
17. Papazachos, C. B., and B. C. Papazachos (2001). Precursory accelerating Benioff strain in the Aegean area, Ann. Geofis. 144, 461-474.
18. Papazachos, C. B., G. F. Karakaisis, A. S. Savaidis, and B. C. Papazachos (2002b). Accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the southern Aegean area, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 570-580.
19. Papazachos, C. B., G. F. Karakaisis, E. M. Scordilis, and B. C. Papazachos (2005). Global observational properties of the critical earthquake model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95, 1841-1855.
20. Papazachos, C. B., G. F. Karakaisis, E. M. Scordilis, and B. C. Papazachos (2006c). New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release, Tectonophysics 423, 83-96.
21. Robinson, R. (2000). A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 140, 568-576.
22. Rundle, J. B., W. Klein, and S. Gross (1996). Dynamics of a traveling density wave model for earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 4285-4288.
23. Rundle, J. B., W. Klein, D. L. Turcotte, and B. D. Malamad (2000). Precursory seismic activation and critical point phenomena, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 2165-2182.
24. Scordilis, E. M., C. B. Papazachos, G. F. Karakaisis, and V. G. Karakostas (2004). Accelerating seismic crustal deformation before strong main-shocks in the Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction, J. Seism. 8, 57-70.
25. Sornette, D., and C. G. Sammis (1995). Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: implications for earthquake predictions, J. Phys. Fr. 5, 607-619.
26. Sornette, A., and D. Sornette (1990). Earthquake rupture as a critical point. Consequences for telluric precursors, Tectonophysics 179, 327-334.
27. Sykes, L. R., and S. C. Jaumé (1990). Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area, Nature 348, 595-599.
28. Tocher, D. (1959). Seismic history of the San Francisco Bay region, Calif. Div. Mines Spec. Rept. 57, 39-48.
29. Tzanis, A., and F. Vallianatos (2003). Distributed power law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the SW Hellenic Arc, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 179-195.
30. Tzanis, A., F. Vallianatos, and K. Makropoulos (2000). Seismic and electric precursors to the 17 January 1983, M7 Kefallinia earthquake, Greece: signatures of a SOC system, Phys. Chem. Earth 25, 281-287.
31. Wessel, P., and W. Smith (1995). New version of the Generic Mapping Tools, EOS 76, 329.
32. Zoller, G., and S. Hainzl (2002). A systematic spatiotemporal test of the critical point hypothesis for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1558-1561.